List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 6

[Mr Magic]

My issues is this. HH turns 28yo early in season 2024. Let’s say we have to pay ‘overs’ to ensure we attract him as a free agent, so $3.5m over 5-years.

Let’s say we are looking at finishing mid-table in 2024 and we want to secure another decent draft pick.

If HH had been on our list since 20yo, then with 4-years to run and turning 29yo early in 2025, and taking up $2.8m more cap space, he’s EXACTLY the type of player we’d be looking to off load for picks and to free up cap space to get a genuine gun or to forward pay all our young stars.

I think he’s a talented player and would provide ‘decent’ value. But he’s not good enough to ‘move the needle’ and has McGovern, McStay, Acres, Williams, Wingard, Hill, Hanneberry, Lobb type vibes written all over him.

Give big coin and long deals (ie $600k+) to top-liners, not B-graders. Carlton, GWS, Essendon, Gold Coast, Saints, Freo and more have shown us over the years what over paying for B-graders does for you, free agents or not.


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That post seems close to the mark to me

 

[THE THIN MAN]

Harrison Himmelberg of the GWS Giants Career AFL Stats

Harrison Himmelberg of GWS Giants career AFL statistics

www.footywire.com

 

[The Mighty]

Out for year with back injury , nice mark is a dead set campaigner of a kick at goal

Sounds like he'd fit right in at Richmond

 

[Meteoric Rise]

View attachment 1705747

Harrison Himmelberg of the GWS Giants Career AFL Stats

Harrison Himmelberg of GWS Giants career AFL statistics

www.footywire.com

I think the way to understand how good Himmelberg's best is in terms of scoreboard impact, you need to look at his 3 full seasons forward after entering his prime, 2018, 2019, 2021.

73 matches. 103 goals + 69 goal assists.

2.35 goals + goal assists per game. The elite key forwards tend to be up around and over 3.0 per game. Jack Riewoldt is around that mark over his career.

All of Himmelberg's other statistical indicators to me look like his goal involvements, solid enough, not elite. He is a decent, competitive footballer who can play some different roles, including key forward. He is an excellent kick.

Would he go better in Richmond's system? Possibly. I just think you cap your offer to him below the amount you would pay an elite player. If you get him within a reasonable budget fine, if not, don't go chasing the price.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

I think the way to understand how good Himmelberg's best is in terms of scoreboard impact, you need to look at his 3 full seasons forward after entering his prime, 2018, 2019, 2021.

73 matches. 103 goals + 69 goal assists.

2.35 goals + goal assists per game. The elite key forwards tend to be up around and over 3.0 per game. Jack Riewoldt is around that mark over his career.

All of Himmelberg's other statistical indicators to me look like his goal involvements, solid enough, not elite. He is a decent, competitive footballer who can play some different roles, including key forward. He is an excellent kick.
and you cannot have 2 of them in the same team
Would he go better in Richmond's system? Possibly. I just think you cap your offer to him below the amount you would pay an elite player. If you get him within a reasonable budget fine, if not, don't go chasing the price.

Very well said

No point in comparing HH to a Prime Jack / Hawkins types and that is not the type of player you are paying for as that will cost you $1.1 mil + and you cannot afford to have 2 of them in the same team so you need a batman & robin type set up where you have your Lynch and you have your 2nd KPF - Thats HH

$700k for HH as a free agent when you have jack finishing up is priceless and gives the small fowards and Lynch to play their roles ideally you would like to get 100-110 goals a year from your 2 KPF's

 

[tiger_tough]

This is gold. Hutchy goes bang. What a clown McClure looks like here.

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

This is gold. Hutchy goes bang. What a clown McClure looks like here.

Hutchy just made him look like the fool this clown is

WHACK !!

Go Hutchy

 

[Ctl]

This is gold. Hutchy goes bang. What a clown McClure looks like here.

McClure would have had a point if he said it could be a win/win/win and instead of Richmond contributing some salary it would be the AFL (e.g afl 800k Gold Coast 600k) but saying he can’t be at Richmond is just asinine. FFS even Kane thought that was ridiculous

 

[Rioli2Rioli]

McClure would have had a point if he said it could be a win/win/win and instead of Richmond contributing some salary it would be the AFL (e.g afl 800k Gold Coast 600k) but saying he can’t be at Richmond is just asinine. FFS even Kane thought that was ridiculous

Hutchy just smashed him on TV

McClure is a goose

 

[tropicaltiger]

Hutchy just smashed him on TV

McClure is a goose

 

[RockJobster0312]

This is gold. Hutchy goes bang. What a clown McClure looks like here.

Possibly the dumbest argument I’ve heard for a while.

‘Has to be moved cause he’s on $1.4m a year’.

Firstly, I don’t think it’s that much. Secondly, RFC would know its salary cap position and act accordingly and lastly, the club identified as the landing spot doled out a top 10 pick to get off Jack Bowes’ contract last offseason. It’s not like they’re flushed with open salary space.

In response:

‘We know contracts can be scrunched up and thrown away. A three year deal at $500k - above the AFL average and $100k more than his current contract’.

Firstly, anyone making a commercial decision is going to take the $1.4m and then negotiate another contract if it’s only $100k extra. Dusty at worst would get maybe $400k for two years (roughly similar to our deal with Tarrant) at the end of his current deal. To makes it work it would have to be like $800k over three seasons. Secondly, why wouldn’t Richmond just re-negotiate his contract as per Sam’s suggestion that the Gold Coast do?

If Dusty said he wanted to end his career at a certain club/ location that’s one thing; but trying to manufacture something on the basis of illogical arguments quite another.

Quite rightly the entire panel made him look like an absolute dunce.

 

[bc27]

This is gold. Hutchy goes bang. What a clown McClure looks like here.

What’s the difference paying Dusty $1.4m next year for one year then giving out $600k for a year?

Only reason you’d do it is to either keep a star to free up salary cap space (which we’ve signed all important players this year now anyway) or try and bring in a star whose after bigger coin.

I am 100% sure the club isn’t offloading our greatest ever football for a savings to bring in a 28 years old himmeberg

The only way I’d see it happening is if we’re offered a top 5 draft pick attached with it or there’s a legitimate star KPF on offer that is very keen to come to Richmond. Which I am doubting either will be on offer.

 

[Growapair]

Very well said

No point in comparing HH to a Prime Jack / Hawkins types and that is not the type of player you are paying for as that will cost you $1.1 mil + and you cannot afford to have 2 of them in the same team so you need a batman & robin type set up where you have your Lynch and you have your 2nd KPF - Thats HH

$700k for HH as a free agent when you have jack finishing up is priceless and gives the small fowards and Lynch to play their roles ideally you would like to get 100-110 goals a year from your 2 KPF's

​

SOURCE : Herald-Sun - Will Tigers go back to the GWS well to replace Jack?​

Lot of talk about Richmond and Himmelberg, that he is perfect to play forward with Lynch and GWS would be able to use his compo pick to trade up to Pick 1 again

Does GWS get into the race for Harley Reid or match a huge deal for Harry Himmelberg​

Can they afford to match a $750,000 offer for Himmelberg?

Without him, their back line looks strong with Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Connor Idun, while last year’s No. 1 pick Aaron Cadman is showing signs at the other end of the ground, as Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene stand tall.

If they secured first-round compensation, they would have picks four (their own pick), five (the compo pick) and seven (from the Jacob Hopper trade).

The Giants would not only have a compelling pitch for the No.1 pick – and Harley Reid) – they would save $600,000 a year in salary space for the next five years.

 

[tunksy]

They would better off not chasing the number one pick if they did indeed have 3 picks in the top ten.

View attachment 1705964​

SOURCE : Herald-Sun - Will Tigers go back to the GWS well to replace Jack?​

Lot of talk about Richmond and Himmelberg, that he is perfect to play forward with Lynch and GWS would be able to use his compo pick to trade up to Pick 1 again

Does GWS get into the race for Harley Reid or match a huge deal for Harry Himmelberg​

Can they afford to match a $750,000 offer for Himmelberg?

Without him, their back line looks strong with Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley and Connor Idun, while last year’s No. 1 pick Aaron Cadman is showing signs at the other end of the ground, as Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene stand tall.

If they secured first-round compensation, they would have picks four (their own pick), five (the compo pick) and seven (from the Jacob Hopper trade).

The Giants would not only have a compelling pitch for the No.1 pick – and Harley Reid) – they would save $600,000 a year in salary space for the next five years

 

[Growapair]

They would better off not chasing the number one pick if they did indeed have 3 picks in the top ten.

Big Call. Harley Reid is meant to be the next Dustin Martin

He is so good he wasn't even required to play in the VicMetro trial matches this year.

Here is highlights from last years champs. He is the best key forward, key back and midfielder in the country

 

[tunksy]

Big Call. Harley Reid is meant to be the next Dustin Martin

He is so good he wasn't even required to play in the VicMetro trial matches this year.

Here is highlights from last years champs. He is the best key forward, key back and midfielder in the country

all the same. one player over 3 quality players.

what happens if he spends his entire career injured.

 

[_RT_]

He averaged 1.8 gpg in his first 10 games last season before Leon Cameron got the ass and McVeigh moved him back....

So in his 7th season he still couldn't average more than 2 goals a game when he was the 1st or 2nd option in the GWS forward line.

I've said repeatedly I don't want someone who is coming in to be second fiddle to Lynch for a couple of years, which is what HH would be. I want us to being in someone who can replace Lynch as the number 1 preferably at the end of next year or at the latest in 2025 during his final year of his current deal.

We're supposedly chasing Ben King, but Gold Coast becoming a finals side could see him remain there moving forward. I like Todd Marshall who looked very good against Hawthorn(yeah I know) moving around the ground providing a mobile target. He would be an ideal pick up at the end of next year as a RFA, where we can throw the money people are suggesting we throw at HH and get a KPF that can become a number 1 option for 6+ years.

If we want a number 2 option the Samson should be the first port of call. With another year in the gym, he'll continue to mature and grow stronger, so the marks and contests he isn't quite nailing now will start being wins for him. For a few years while Nankervis continues to carry the ruck, Ryan could become quite a handful as that secondary target with his height & athleticism, plus the ability to take the ruck inside F50.

That's just 2-3 younger and IMO better options for us moving forward, then there are the untried Bradtke & to a lesser extent Bauer plus any draftees/other trade targets that our recruiters/list managers identify.

For mine the HH recruitment is short sighted and runs the danger of imus repeating mistakes from the past where we recruited players thinking they'd get us to a premiership but never did.

 

[_RT_]

For the record here is HH breakdown between forward and back

R1 83/17 (FWD/DEF)
R2 45/55
R3 50/50
R4 100/0
R5 75/25
R6 61/39
R7 80/20
R8 60/40
R9 62/38
R10 25/75
R11 DNP
R12 35/65

Would suggest he has spent a lot more time as a forward than playing down back, which brings us back to his lack of goals as a forward.

EDIT: This is a breakdown of where he gets his possessions, not actual game time in this areas.

 

[Growapair]

For the record here is HH breakdown between forward and back

R1 83/17 (FWD/DEF)
R2 45/55
R3 50/50
R4 100/0
R5 75/25
R6 61/39
R7 80/20
R8 60/40
R9 62/38
R10 25/75
R11 DNP
R12 35/65

Would suggest he has spent a lot more time as a forward than playing down back, which brings us back to his lack of goals as a forward.

So he has spent 57% of his time forward this year if you extrapolate the data to represent he had spent 100% in forward line he would have kicked 1.7 goals per game.

Interestingly the game he actually played 100% in forward line he kicked 3.

Remember when Jack could get up like this

 

[Mr Magic]

Big Call. Harley Reid is meant to be the next Dustin Martin

He is so good he wasn't even required to play in the VicMetro trial matches this year.

Here is highlights from last years champs. He is the best key forward, key back and midfielder in the country

Like the look of Harley Reid. Get him!!!

HH, yeah nah, not where our list is at.

As for Dusty, they gave away pick 7 for nothing, why would we trade Dusty to Gold Coast now and why would Dusty go?? At least GWS have something to give

Imagine sticking Reid on a wing, letting him drift in the guts and forward with Pickett hanging up forward. That would be a jolt of stimulus

Ben King, lol, why would we want Ben King?? when we have Samson Ryan, we do not need Ben King and Ryan can ruck!!!

Harley Reid would certainly inspire the likes of Brown, Clarke, Banks, Sonsie and Ryan let alone Gibcus and more to follow

 

[NZ_Tiger]

Can’t say I saw anything about himmelberg on the weekend that would make me think he would help us.


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[Growapair]

Can’t say I saw anything about himmelberg on the weekend that would make me think he would help us.


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How about this effort to win the game?

Outrageous Himmelberg hanger and winner rocks stadium

GWS forward Harry Himmelberg lights up Norwood Oval with this spectacular grab and finish deep into the final term

www.afl.com.au

This should be in front of the Tiger Army at the MCG

 

[Muddiemoose]

Can’t say I saw anything about himmelberg on the weekend that would make me think he would help us.


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Would be a similar line if thinking of why the Pies went after McStay last year

It’s not so much about the player as an individual but what they bring to the side structure wise. HH is available for us to realistically snag and the attributes to play the specific role at AFL standard for the medium/long term

With Jack probably hanging up the boots we desperately need another tall forward option, our current depth options have alot of question marks and any one who would be drafted would be 2 - 3 years away to be a consistent contributor to the side

 

[domin8]

Would be a similar line if thinking of why the Pies went after McStay last year

It’s not so much about the player as an individual but what they bring to the side structure wise and who is available who has the attributes to fit in

With Jack probably hanging up the boots we desperately need another tall forward option and our current depth options have alot of question marks and any one who would be drafted would be 2 - 3 years away to be a consistent contributor to the side

This

 

[tiger_tough]

So in his 7th season he still couldn't average more than 2 goals a game when he was the 1st or 2nd option in the GWS forward line.

I've said repeatedly I don't want someone who is coming in to be second fiddle to Lynch for a couple of years, which is what HH would be. I want us to being in someone who can replace Lynch as the number 1 preferably at the end of next year or at the latest in 2025 during his final year of his current deal.

We're supposedly chasing Ben King, but Gold Coast becoming a finals side could see him remain there moving forward. I like Todd Marshall who looked very good against Hawthorn(yeah I know) moving around the ground providing a mobile target. He would be an ideal pick up at the end of next year as a RFA, where we can throw the money people are suggesting we throw at HH and get a KPF that can become a number 1 option for 6+ years.

If we want a number 2 option the Samson should be the first port of call. With another year in the gym, he'll continue to mature and grow stronger, so the marks and contests he isn't quite nailing now will start being wins for him. For a few years while Nankervis continues to carry the ruck, Ryan could become quite a handful as that secondary target with his height & athleticism, plus the ability to take the ruck inside F50.

That's just 2-3 younger and IMO better options for us moving forward, then there are the untried Bradtke & to a lesser extent Bauer plus any draftees/other trade targets that our recruiters/list managers identify.

For mine the HH recruitment is short sighted and runs the danger of imus repeating mistakes from the past where we recruited players thinking they'd get us to a premiership but never did.

You do realise only 20 players in the whole league average 2+ goals per game? Every side would love a 2nd KPF who averages 1.8 gpg. I'd say the only key forward duo going at that rate in the league is Hawkins and Cameron.

We don't have the draft capital to trade for Ben King and if we did we should be taking it to rhe draft as we need quality youth. We've outlayed so many picks on Hopper and Taranto I can't see us trading early picks for at least 2-3 years.

If we managed to get Tom Lynch on a monster deal after just winning a flag, signing dusty up to a $9 million dollar deal and trading in Nankervis, Caddy and Prestia the year before I reckon we could manage HH plus a Marshall type as a free agent in a year or two. Our guys are the league leaders in managing the salary cap. If they chase HH won't be at the expense of other preferred targets, it will be because he is the one we want first while they have another eye on future moves.

In 2 seasons $1.4mill for dusty will be off the books and probably about $700k for Lynch will be freed up assuming he goes around again in 2026. Not to mention Jack, Cotchin, Grimes, Prestia, Castagna, Tarrant etc etc. We'd have heaps free to chase multiple targets.