List Mgmt. Trade & Free Agency talk Pt 6

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His deal started 2021, and there were 20 players paid $800k or more according to the AFL.
It doesnt matter when his deal started

The AFL look at what and when he signs the deal and its assessed if that puts him in the top 5% in that year
with 800 afl players 40 players would fall into that bracket and in 2020 there was only 23
 
Ryan’s going to be a ripper. His ruck work to our mids this year has been top notch and he has excellent forward craft for a 207cm giraffe.
He has the potential to be. Key word is potential. He has a clear lack of speed and marking ability which are needed for someone his size. Good tap-work and skills are not enough for us to have a premiership quality forward/ruck. He will need to improve pace and marking ability/strength.
 
He has the potential to be. Key word is potential. He has a clear lack of speed and marking ability which are needed for someone his size. Good tap-work and skills are not enough for us to have a premiership quality forward/ruck. He will need to improve pace and marking ability/strength.
There’s no knock at all on his speed , agility for 206cm player is excellent, he can take an overhead grab, needs to add strength as he gets buffeted out of the contest too easily , get to the gym and watch lynchys tapes he holds his position as well as anyone
 

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He has the potential to be. Key word is potential. He has a clear lack of speed and marking ability which are needed for someone his size. Good tap-work and skills are not enough for us to have a premiership quality forward/ruck. He will need to improve pace and marking ability/strength.
He’s still 2-3 years away from even scratching his peak. When you see the trajectory he is on compared to this time last year you can understand why people are bullish about him
 
He has the potential to be. Key word is potential. He has a clear lack of speed and marking ability which are needed for someone his size. Good tap-work and skills are not enough for us to have a premiership quality forward/ruck. He will need to improve pace and marking ability/strength.
He's had no problem taking marks in the VFL. His marks and contested marks per game are very similar to Gawns after he'd played a similar amount of games. As you mentioned it will improve with strength and maturity.

Ryan will be quality.
 
I like HH imho , that’s too much to cop , 650 max

I suppose it comes down to how badly the buyer needs/ wants the commodity.

Teams short on kpf/kpd are likely to fork out more.

Heard today that the Bumbers are now also interested which makes perfect sense when you look at their kpd stocks
 
He has the potential to be. Key word is potential. He has a clear lack of speed and marking ability which are needed for someone his size. Good tap-work and skills are not enough for us to have a premiership quality forward/ruck. He will need to improve pace and marking ability/strength.

Nothing’s guaranteed but at least we’ve seen a decent sample of that potential at the highest level.

Bag of 4 goals?
Classy ruck work.

Attitude/ work rate seems to be really good too.
 
His deal started 2021, and there were 20 players paid $800k or more according to the AFL.

Mate you are wasting your time, she never admits when she is wrong, ever. In fact, 6 months after, she will probably claim your opinion as her own
;)
 
Himmelberg really doesn’t excite me as a player to be honest. He doesn’t really play forwrd or back particularly well.

I would rather be looking elsewhere for a KP replacement.

Agree and not for the dollars that’ve been touted.
$800,000 looks overs based on his stats and from the games I’ve watched.
 
Agree and not for the dollars that’ve been touted.
$800,000 looks overs based on his stats and from the games I’ve watched.

Garry Lyon said this morning HH is a $550k player and I agree with that. Obviously there’s a ‘free agent tax’ to extract him away, so maybe up around $650k. I’d be happy enough with 4 x $650k or 5 x $600k give or take. I don’t think that gets him out of GWS, but there also should be an ‘MCG in front of 80,000’ discount going the other way.



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Garry Lyon said this morning HH is a $550k player and I agree with that. Obviously there’s a ‘free agent tax’ to extract him away, so maybe up around $650k. I’d be happy enough with 4 x $650k or 5 x $600k give or take. I don’t think that gets him out of GWS, but there also should be an ‘MCG in front of 80,000’ discount going the other way.



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Yeah it’ll probably take north of a 5 x $700k deal to extract him.
 
Garry Lyon said this morning HH is a $550k player and I agree with that. Obviously there’s a ‘free agent tax’ to extract him away, so maybe up around $650k. I’d be happy enough with 4 x $650k or 5 x $600k give or take. I don’t think that gets him out of GWS, but there also should be an ‘MCG in front of 80,000’ discount going the other way.



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In 5 years' time 600 won't be that far off the average AFL salary. If McStay went for 600 x5, HH will be 700-800 x 5 without question.
 

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Garry Lyon said this morning HH is a $550k player and I agree with that. Obviously there’s a ‘free agent tax’ to extract him away, so maybe up around $650k. I’d be happy enough with 4 x $650k or 5 x $600k give or take. I don’t think that gets him out of GWS, but there also should be an ‘MCG in front of 80,000’ discount going the other way.



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That seems to be the popular opinion ie around 650k
McStay left for around that mark, I think HH is a better player and worth slightly more
 
In 5 years' time 600 won't be that far off the average AFL salary. If McStay went for 600 x5, HH will be 700-800 x 5 without question.
Heaps of questions really...

HH has had 8 years to secure and tie down a spot and be left there because he's the best option there for his team.

He hasn't done that once...
 
I suppose it comes down to how badly the buyer needs/ wants the commodity.

Teams short on kpf/kpd are likely to fork out more.

Heard today that the Bumbers are now also interested which makes perfect sense when you look at their kpd stocks
Not sure that is 100% accurate and players often take less from clubs if they have other reasons to go there
Tom Lynch is a prime example where he was offered more from Hawks & Pies the team he grow up supporting

If HH wants to come to Richmond for a variety of reasons he may knock back sa a St kilda $800k deal to come to Richmond for $700k or vice versa

Traranto & Hopper may be telling him hey dude this is a great place we would love to have you here with us and the talent is here and we have a real shot with 2-3 pieces and you are the main piece
 
Heaps of questions really...

HH has had 8 years to secure and tie down a spot and be left there because he's the best option there for his team.

He hasn't done that once...
We have gone around this roundabout multiple times and there are very good and obvious reasons for that with last week the best example.

GWS has had so many KPF and still does from
Boyd , Cameron , Paton , Macarthy , riccardi , Hogan etc etc with only Jeremy Cameron really having any sort of reasonable career for many reasons.

Heaps of questions you say but always ask the same question
make a list
 
Heaps of questions really...

HH has had 8 years to secure and tie down a spot and be left there because he's the best option there for his team.

He hasn't done that once...
I disagree. Would you say the same about Liam Baker? He started forward just last week. Pickett has played forward the last couple of weeks. Both of those guys have been shifted to best suit the needs of the time at the time, despite clearly being front of the line in their typical positions. Short too. HH goes where the team needs him, that's a bonus, not a detraction.
 
It doesnt matter when his deal started

The AFL look at what and when he signs the deal and its assessed if that puts him in the top 5% in that year
with 800 afl players 40 players would fall into that bracket and in 2020 there was only 23
Yes it does.

The AFL looked at what Daniher was going to be paid in 2021 and compared it to what other players aged 25+ were getting paid in 2021 to decide what band he fell into. Based on the below table there were 20 players who were paid $800k+.

$2021
$0-$60,0001
$60,001-$100,00018
$100,001-$200,000133
$200,001-$300,000119
$300,001-$400,000117
$400,001-$500,000109
$500,001-$600,00068
$600,001-$700,00046
$700,001-$800,00024
$800,001-$900,00011
$900,001-$1,000,0003
$1,000,001-$1,100,0002
$1,100,001-$1,200,0001
$1,200,001+3
TOTAL655

Given there were 300 players aged 25+ in 2021, to fall in the top 5% Daniher had to be one of the 15 highest paid players, that means that he had to be earning a guaranteed amount above $800k a season on average across the 3 year deal he initially signed with the Lions. Anything below that would have seen him fall into the 5-15% bracket which would have only netted the Bombers an end of R1 pick.
 
Yes it does.

The AFL looked at what Daniher was going to be paid in 2021 and compared it to what other players aged 25+ were getting paid in 2021 to decide what band he fell into. Based on the below table there were 20 players who were paid $800k+.

$2021
$0-$60,0001
$60,001-$100,00018
$100,001-$200,000133
$200,001-$300,000119
$300,001-$400,000117
$400,001-$500,000109
$500,001-$600,00068
$600,001-$700,00046
$700,001-$800,00024
$800,001-$900,00011
$900,001-$1,000,0003
$1,000,001-$1,100,0002
$1,100,001-$1,200,0001
$1,200,001+3
TOTAL655

Given there were 300 players aged 25+ in 2021, to fall in the top 5% Daniher had to be one of the 15 highest paid players, that means that he had to be earning a guaranteed amount above $800k a season on average across the 3 year deal he initially signed with the Lions. Anything below that would have seen him fall into the 5-15% bracket which would have only netted the Bombers an end of R1 pick.
Not really sure why you are still insisting he was on over $800k RT

It has been reported on multiple sites where his salary was at the $750k range and

Reports at the time stated Daniher's 2020 move from Essendon to Brisbane was worth $750,000 per year.

The $700,000 plus figure Daniher departed for is reportedly part of the reason why a high draft pick was triggered for Essendon as compensation.

But with suggestions that Daniher's now-five-year deal is said to be worth less than $750,000 per season according to Barrett's report, several clubs are raising questions as to whether the contract was sufficient for Essendon to receive pick No.7 under the compensation formula.




Anyway im sure we will never agree on this
Maybe read the Daniher thread that was running at the time there was never $800k + for a player that had played 15 games in 3 years



But hey Brisbane are very very happy they did that deal and im sure they dont regret it 1 little bit
 
Yes it does.

The AFL looked at what Daniher was going to be paid in 2021 and compared it to what other players aged 25+ were getting paid in 2021 to decide what band he fell into. Based on the below table there were 20 players who were paid $800k+.

$2021
$0-$60,0001
$60,001-$100,00018
$100,001-$200,000133
$200,001-$300,000119
$300,001-$400,000117
$400,001-$500,000109
$500,001-$600,00068
$600,001-$700,00046
$700,001-$800,00024
$800,001-$900,00011
$900,001-$1,000,0003
$1,000,001-$1,100,0002
$1,100,001-$1,200,0001
$1,200,001+3
TOTAL655

Given there were 300 players aged 25+ in 2021, to fall in the top 5% Daniher had to be one of the 15 highest paid players, that means that he had to be earning a guaranteed amount above $800k a season on average across the 3 year deal he initially signed with the Lions. Anything below that would have seen him fall into the 5-15% bracket which would have only netted the Bombers an end of R1 pick.

This isn't how it's calculated.

They assign a points value for the ave annual contract value and then there's a points value given to the player based on their age.

This enables players to be standardised between age/contract value.

Players are then ranked from 1-800 based on their points score. Higher the points, the higher the ranking.

The age rankings are 24 (15 points), 25 (13 points), 26 (11 points), 27 (9 points), 28 (7 points), 29 (5 points), 30 (2 points) etc. With fractional increases for months i.e 24.5 years of age.

Age is worth alot more than $$$ in the points system.

If the FA's contract slips into this top 40 (as you said) list, the compensation is Band 1.

It's not just the top 5% just for 25 year olds.

It's top 5% for the AFL.

It's all done simply in an excel spreadsheet.
 
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Not really sure why you are still insisting he was on over $800k RT

It has been reported on multiple sites where his salary was at the $750k range and

Reports at the time stated Daniher's 2020 move from Essendon to Brisbane was worth $750,000 per year.

The $700,000 plus figure Daniher departed for is reportedly part of the reason why a high draft pick was triggered for Essendon as compensation.

But with suggestions that Daniher's now-five-year deal is said to be worth less than $750,000 per season according to Barrett's report, several clubs are raising questions as to whether the contract was sufficient for Essendon to receive pick No.7 under the compensation formula.




Anyway im sure we will never agree on this
Maybe read the Daniher thread that was running at the time there was never $800k + for a player that had played 15 games in 3 years



But hey Brisbane are very very happy they did that deal and im sure they dont regret it 1 little bit
Because Essendon don't get a band 1 compo pick if he was only getting $750k in guaranteed money on his original deal. AFL media has as much idea about a players actual wage as you and I have. They guess as much as we do.

However if you look at the table I posted, which breaks down all the players contracts for the 2021 season, to be among the top 15 players, he'd need to be earning at least $800k. It's that simple.
 
This isn't how it's calculated.

They assign a points value for the ave annual contract value and then there's a points value given to the player based on their age.

This enables players to be standardised between age/contract value.

Players are then ranked from 1-800 based on their points score. Higher the points, the higher the ranking.

The age rankings are 24 (13 points), 25 (12 points), 26 (11 points) etc. With fractional increases for months i.e 24.5 years of age.

If the FA's contract slips into this top 40 (as you said) list, the compensation is Band 1.

It's not the top 5% just for 25 year olds.

It's top 5% for the AFL.

It's all done simply in an excel spreadsheet.
According to this Jake Niall article the rankings are done on players aged 25 or older.

■The key to the formula is a ranking system, in which every player in the AFL aged 25 or older is placed in order, based on the size of their (guaranteed) contract.
 
According to this Jake Niall article the rankings are done on players aged 25 or older.

■The key to the formula is a ranking system, in which every player in the AFL aged 25 or older is placed in order, based on the size of their (guaranteed) contract.

Every single player is ranked from 800-1 in the AFL.

The non-applicable players (u/25 and non FA eligible) are excluded.

A pivot table is refreshed with the eligible players and their relative ranking.

You are categorically wrong about it being an absolute number.

The line for band one changes with every single new contract in the AFL, it also changes year on year, as there's rise and fall and performance clause fluctuations in the top 40 age relative contracts.

It's a floating threshold that changes almost weekly with the re-signing of players and those contracts then being submitted formally to the AFL for approval.

The Band 1 threshold will not be the same today as what it will be during FA and the sequence in which some Free Agents paperwork is submitted can change the threshold and be the difference between Band 1 and Band 2 in some cases.

I.e if HH is on more than Ben McKay, and his paperwork is submitted first and is ranked #33 and achieves Band 1, the #40 ranked players threshold moves + .82 points from the previous position (as an example).

Which might be enough for when Ben McKay's paperwork to be submitted the following day to be ranked #41, 0.15 points below #40. Band 2.

It would have been Band 1 the day before.

It's not just "$800k+", as it's based on points, not salary. Age being even more important than salary.
 
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