Autopsy AFL 2025 Round 12 - Pies v Hawks - Fri May 30th 7:40pm AEST (MCG)

[Wosh]

1st v 4th

AFL 2025 PREMIERSHIP SEASON ROUND 12
COLLINGWOOD V HAWTHORN
FRIDAY MAY 30TH 7:40PM AEST (M.C.G.)

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BYES: CARLTONNORTH PORT BULLDOGS​

Join the Game-Day chat!

 

[cryptor]

More interesting than this game or its result is who will the great unwashed be anointing as beneficiaries of undeserved free kicks once the game begins on Friday night?

My tip: The team who wins will have done so on the back of undeserved free kicks even if they don't win the tally (We can't forget it's also about the ones they don't pay). And for the team that loses, just proof that they can't win without free kicks.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Collingwood by 110 points

 

[Xtreme]

Collingwood by 60

 

[Pancakes]

No idea how Newcombe didn't get suspended, when Curtis got three weeks for an identical tackle.

But anyway

Hawks always match up well on Pies, and seem to beat them even when the Pies are playing well.
Hawks by 17

 

[Cyclops]

Hawthorn every chance to knock us off.

Then the wise pundits can reannoint the Hawks, then write them off again and so on.

Hawthorn still a vigorous well coached side. Yes there's a question on the top end but very few glaring weaknesses. Honestly they are in a little form slump.

Pretty sure Fly is taking them extremely seriously.

 

[demondavey]

No idea how Newcombe didn't get suspended, when Curtis got three weeks for an identical tackle.

But anyway

Hawks always match up well on Pies, and seem to beat them even when the Pies are playing well.
Hawks by 17

Because the umpiring is unprofessional and Hawthorn get the most free kicks, stats tell you so.

 

[demondavey]

Hawks will respond. 15 points.

 

[demondavey]

More interesting than this game or its result is who will the great unwashed be anointing as beneficiaries of undeserved free kicks once the game begins on Friday night?

My tip: The team who wins will have done so on the back of undeserved free kicks even if they don't win the tally (We can't forget it's also about the ones they don't pay). And for the team that loses, just proof that they can't win without free kicks.

The great unwashed Barack for Collingwood mate.

You’re no.1 in the AFL for free kicks. Between making sure Daicos gets 3 votes for 18 touches and giving hawthorn a pass it should be a decent game.

 

[cryptor]

The great unwashed Barack for Collingwood mate.

You’re no.1 in the AFL for free kicks. Between making sure Daicos gets 3 votes for 18 touches and giving hawthorn a pass it should be a decent game.

The great unwashed I’m referring to are the simpletons who just look at free kick differentials as the key metric for determining who gets the rub of the green.

 

[timokane]

Any win is a good win v hawks.

But thinking of a controlling 25 point win will do.

Type of game that you want to play solid footy from first minute to the last.

String together good quarters.

Pies by 4 goals.

Players coming back.

Still think Moore misses again just 1 more week for Moore.

The rest return.

Maynard only real out from the North game.

Pies have a good problem to have.

2023 was like that.

Sportsbet only has line of 6 in pies favour but i think it should be more like 18.

Weather to suit pies like it a tad wet as well.

Cool breezes touch of a spot of drizzle just before the game.

Touch greasy deck.

Close early on but the Pies are all class.

Fly and co we win.

 

[NetworkNerd]

Because the umpiring is unprofessional and Hawthorn get the most free kicks, stats tell you so.

In the history of recorded free kicks, Hawthorn is dead last in free kick differential.. any apparent advantage this year is just the umpires trying to balance the ledger a bit.

 

[demondavey]

The great unwashed I’m referring to are the simpletons who just look at free kick differentials as the key metric for determining who gets the rub of the green.

Getting the rub of the green via free kicks is one big metric in determine advantage. It only has to happen in one game to influence the result. See the 2016 GF.

 

[voorhees]

big fri nite at the G.
returning players for the pies and hawks who need to respond to the challenge.
looking forward to this one

 

[Toffee Lion]

Think this will be ultra competitive, Hawks looking to respond and a perfect match to get themselves hyped up for.

Daicos will be the difference, if he gets off the leash then Pies win. If he is quelled, Hawks may just edge it out.

 

[PerthBoy86]

In the history of recorded free kicks, Hawthorn is dead last in free kick differential.. any apparent advantage this year is just the umpires trying to balance the ledger a bit.

View attachment 2325623

The Hawks of the 80s and 00s and 10s had a reputation for rough, unsociable football.

 

[PerthBoy86]

Tough one to predict. Must win for the Hawks I think, or at least keep it competitive. Despite ladder positions Hawks usually seem to have the wood over them, but they're not in great form and Collingwood look so solid.

How many the Pies get back might be a big factor. Obviously holding Daicos to say under 25 (and both brothers to under 50) will go a long way. I'll tip the Pies by 25.

 

[Humblebob]

If Pendles, Sidey, Moore, Hill and Schultz come back in the Pies should get up. Big 6'4 Ned Long with a point to prove will guard Nick like a rabid dog.

Hawks by 67.

 

[cryptor]

Getting the rub of the green via free kicks is one big metric in determine advantage. It only has to happen in one game to influence the result. See the 2016 GF.

Yes, it’s one metric. And not particularly insightful in isolation.

 

[Westlo]

Pies by 40

No mentions of how Ned Long was let go by the Hawks for nothing even when he racks up nearly 30 possies and the hawks midfield gets smashed for the third week in a row.

 

[cryptor]

No mentions of how Ned Long was let go by the Hawks for nothing even when he racks up nearly 30 possies and the hawks midfield gets smashed for the third week in a row.

What’s to say? He was behind too many at the Hawks when he was delisted. His VFL form was strong but he was off the pace at AFL level. He’s since spent two preseasons developing at the Pies. He wasn’t overly impressive when he got his go late last year but it’s clearly clicked for him this year. Good for him and well done by the Pies to help him on the way to reach his potential.

 

[joe444]

In the history of recorded free kicks, Hawthorn is dead last in free kick differential.. any apparent advantage this year is just the umpires trying to balance the ledger a bit.

View attachment 2325623

2024: 10th
2023: 12th
2022: 12th

So in the end what will play out will disadvantage Hawthorn again. They've had a laughably good run for a few months and are about to suffer some serious overcompensation against them.

 

[Pie eyed]

No idea how Newcombe didn't get suspended, when Curtis got three weeks for an identical tackle.

But anyway

Hawks always match up well on Pies, and seem to beat them even when the Pies are playing well.
Hawks by 17

The trick is the Pies will play terribly to avoid the "playing well" trap, claw their way back from 54 points down courtesy of free kick and 50's, paid and unpaid, and win by a solitary point after being awarded a downfield free after the siren for a push in the back to the player who just kicked the goal from a 50, which drew the game.

Practiced the first three quarters last week.

 

[_jrtp09_]

Hawthorn every chance to knock us off.

Then the wise pundits can reannoint the Hawks, then write them off again and so on.

Hawthorn still a vigorous well coached side. Yes there's a question on the top end but very few glaring weaknesses. Honestly they are in a little form slump.

Pretty sure Fly is taking them extremely seriously.

Pies will win due to strong season form, home ground advantage at the MCG, better scoring efficiency, and recent head-to-head wins. I’m expecting (and hoping for) a close victory. Pies by 17 points.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

No idea how Newcombe didn't get suspended, when Curtis got three weeks for an identical tackle.

But anyway

Hawks always match up well on Pies, and seem to beat them even when the Pies are playing well.
Hawks by 17

Newcombe tried stamping his authority but hulk slamming someone, lucky he didn’t get hurt because it would have been 4 weeks. MRO is broken. Tackles you can’t set prejudice on what’s right or wrong anymore.