Preview The race to 15 wins, and is 15 wins enough.

[Purple Suit]

After the last couple of weeks (and against most bottom 9 sides so far this season for that fact) he hasn't done enough to earn that trust I think. It wasn't until half time when the old school proverbial rocket was deployed that the motivation and performance improved. We've struggled hard to start games and stay focused.

That's where I'm worried. Like fnerd seeing will be believing. If, and only if, we can make it through the next 2 games with wins will I start to trust. At that point it will probably feel like we can legitimately beat anyone anywhere and put down the naysayers.

10/11 games on the trot. I'm glad the players trust themselves to get it done and are delivering.

We won by 49 + 27 points so not exactly heart stoppers.

 

[go_the_dockers]

The AFL has been engineered to be an even comp, and yes father son rules, travel were never even. Academies for the northern states are probably a necessary leg up in rugby markets. What I dont understand is how Carlton, Port, Sydney and Melbourne have been so uncompetitive this year. I don't have time to watch many non Freo games, so that leaves me tunnel visioned. Any ideas on why this season has been so uneven?

Carlton are very good in the first half, but have get smashed in the 2nd half.

I think a lack of preseason for a few players hurt them, plus an old game plan.

Sydney - injuries to key players.
Port - Have been up for a long time. A few injuries, players getting older etc etc.
Melbourne - Poor skills, poor depth. Similar to Port.

 

[Quay Club]

We have them covered and they know it. Absolutely flogged them last time and they were lucky it was wet.

This team just doesn't give up anymore and its so close to clicking. It clicked against West Coast just didnt kick straight. Fought through the Carlolton hoodoo well and it was one way traffic in the second half.

Let them come out fired up. We've never been in a better spot to beat them. Everything to play for and we had Carlton scare us in the first half and put 61 to 8 on them in the second half.

That picture looks familiar...



And then I remembered another bloke who wore purple....

 

[anchor man]

After the last couple of weeks (and against most bottom 9 sides so far this season for that fact) he hasn't done enough to earn that trust I think. It wasn't until half time when the old school proverbial rocket was deployed that the motivation and performance improved. We've struggled hard to start games and stay focused.

That's where I'm worried. Like fnerd seeing will be believing. If, and only if, we can make it through the next 2 games with wins will I start to trust. At that point it will probably feel like we can legitimately beat anyone anywhere and put down the naysayers.

Beat the Suns away, Pies Away,Hawks home. Hardly bottom teams.And remember that Carlton were considered to be part of the flag contenders pre season.

 

[ubiquitous226]

So in summary;

Win 0 games - sack JLo (tongue in cheek, don't think we would)
Win 1 game - reach 15 wins and miss the finals, unless that win is against the Bulldogs
Win 2 games - make the finals
Win 3 games - likely top 4

 

[FreoRicci]

To demonstrate how bonkers this is. Freo need to win at last 12 of their last 14 games to make finals.

That's actually just insanity haha

Wasn’t 2006 something like 10 of 12 to get knocked out of Prelim.

That’s insane that this current period might not get top 4.

 

[Purple Suit]

Wasn’t 2006 something like 10 of 12 to get knocked out of Prelim.

That’s insane that this current period might not get top 4.

I had a look, we were 6-7 (don't tell my kids) with a percentage of 85% at round 13 sitting 10th. Won 9 in a row to finish 15-7 and 3rd and percentage of 109%.

Played Adelaide away who we had beaten away by 15 points 4 weeks prior. The wind was shocking and definately affected us more than Adelaide. Knocked out by Sydney in the prelim after beating Dees at home in the semi. That was our first finals win ever, I think I still have the ticket stub somewhere.

 

[malpaso]

After the last couple of weeks (and against most bottom 9 sides so far this season for that fact) he hasn't done enough to earn that trust I think. It wasn't until half time when the old school proverbial rocket was deployed that the motivation and performance improved. We've struggled hard to start games and stay focused.

That's where I'm worried. Like fnerd seeing will be believing. If, and only if, we can make it through the next 2 games with wins will I start to trust. At that point it will probably feel like we can legitimately beat anyone anywhere and put down the naysayers.

Rubbish. The bottom 9 have been beaten up by everyone else as well. Oh wait, we've won the most games against the top 9.
We have had to win 10/11 just to be where we are at on the ladder. I don't care what comp it is, 10/11 in professional sports is no mug showing..
If you can't see the improvement we have made as a side this year then there's no hope for ya..

 

[wakojako]

We need to win the next two and we'll finish 5/6th. We have a much bigger chance of beating Brisbane at home then Dogs at Marvel. For now let's focus on beating Port and not getting any injuries. If we lose against Port finals is likely over.

 

[FreoRicci]

I had a look, we were 6-7 (don't tell my kids) with a percentage of 85% at round 13 sitting 10th. Won 9 in a row to finish 15-7 and 3rd and percentage of 109%.

Played Adelaide away who we had beaten away by 15 points 4 weeks prior. The wind was shocking and definately affected us more than Adelaide. Knocked out by Sydney in the prelim after beating Dees at home in the semi. That was our first finals win ever, I think I still have the ticket stub somewhere.

Finished 3rd with 60 points. This season that might not get top 8, even though each team plays 23 games not 22 like it was back then.

This season was 4-5. Remarkably similar.

That Adelaide final was such BS. All the conditions came in one game.

 

[Kapow!!!]

Rubbish. The bottom 9 have been beaten up by everyone else as well. Oh wait, we've won the most games against the top 9.
We have had to win 10/11 just to be where we are at on the ladder. I don't care what comp it is, 10/11 in professional sports is no mug showing..
If you can't see the improvement we have made as a side this year then there's no hope for ya..

sigh

I have a lot more faith in the ability of the team to get back into games and overwhelm some opponents. But we have had some slow starts creep back in and to the specific criticism I made no, I can't say I'm confident JL will have the group ready for the off. I'm more confident we can get back into it afterwards and the ability of the leaders to navigate those challenges.

I think it's still fair to be critical because what was served up in the first half last week was diabolical and if it happens at any point for the remainder of the season it may be too much to come back from and cost Freo their season. Better teams won't let them back dictate and get back into it. Momentum away from home may not allow it.

I think it's highly unfair to conflate my criticism on this point with being 'unable to see the improvement' because that's just patently wrong.

I'm happy some are confident, I envy it. But I just can't be after being burned many times.

 

[anchor man]

after being burned many times.

Haven't we all. Just have to get over it.

 

[The Round House Drunk]

sigh

I have a lot more faith in the ability of the team to get back into games and overwhelm some opponents. But we have had some slow starts creep back in and to the specific criticism I made no, I can't say I'm confident JL will have the group ready for the off. I'm more confident we can get back into it afterwards and the ability of the leaders to navigate those challenges.

I think it's still fair to be critical because what was served up in the first half last week was diabolical and if it happens at any point for the remainder of the season it may be too much to come back from and cost Freo their season. Better teams won't let them back dictate and get back into it. Momentum away from home may not allow it.

I think it's highly unfair to conflate my criticism on this point with being 'unable to see the improvement' because that's just patently wrong.

I'm happy some are confident, I envy it. But I just can't be after being burned many times.

Yeah, well said.

Regarding the poor starts, (and warning that I'm going to channel Stinky Lomax here), how much of that is on the shoulders of the coach v the players? That's a rhetorical question, as it's almost impossible to know from outside the four walls of the club.

My own personal speculation on it - in previous years the playing group had a habit of getting a bit ahead of themselves after a good win or when positive attention was focused on the club. I'm not blaming or criticising them for it, after all it's human nature to dwell on the past or think about the future. It's also largely a function of our youthfulness, and we have had a very young group in recent years relative to the median age/experience profile for AFL sides.

This year we're just that little bit older and wiser, and the players often tell the media about the work that they do through the club to learn strategies and skills to stay in the moment and focus on the job at hand.

Having Fyfe and Pearce back this week will help in that regard too.

Again, it's hard to know how much of last week's poor start was due to the players not being mentally prepared, or the result of a game plan that was not suited to the conditions (high handballing on a day that was wet AF).

Just the speculation of a BF nuftie! I share your lack of confidence and agree that it's fair to be critical about last week's efforts.

Interesting time to be a Freo supporter!

 

[freo84]

sigh

I have a lot more faith in the ability of the team to get back into games and overwhelm some opponents. But we have had some slow starts creep back in and to the specific criticism I made no, I can't say I'm confident JL will have the group ready for the off. I'm more confident we can get back into it afterwards and the ability of the leaders to navigate those challenges.

I think it's still fair to be critical because what was served up in the first half last week was diabolical and if it happens at any point for the remainder of the season it may be too much to come back from and cost Freo their season. Better teams won't let them back dictate and get back into it. Momentum away from home may not allow it.

I think it's highly unfair to conflate my criticism on this point with being 'unable to see the improvement' because that's just patently wrong.

I'm happy some are confident, I envy it. But I just can't be after being burned many times.

 

[oldgoat]

After the last couple of weeks (and against most bottom 9 sides so far this season for that fact) he hasn't done enough to earn that trust I think. It wasn't until half time when the old school proverbial rocket was deployed that the motivation and performance improved. We've struggled hard to start games and stay focused.

That's where I'm worried. Like fnerd seeing will be believing. If, and only if, we can make it through the next 2 games with wins will I start to trust. At that point it will probably feel like we can legitimately beat anyone anywhere and put down the naysayers.

Yup...just another shit win!
We sure are racking them up!

 

[freo84]

Yup...just another shit win!
We sure are racking them up!

Do you know what's worse than shit wins?

Good losses

 

[Dockeroo]

A team Missing finals on 15 wins would be unlucky but it’s a mistake to compare it to other seasons and draw conclusions.
It was a much better achievement to win 15 last year or the year before compared to this year.
Thats because there was 13 or 14 decent teams in the league last year and the year before and there is only 9 this season.

At the end of the day one thing that will not lie is the position in the ladder at the conclusion of round 24.

Whoever finishes 9th will have had 8 teams that are just better than them over the course of a full AFL season. That is one fact that cannot be disputed.

Hopefully this team is good enough to ensure we are one of the best 8 teams in the league this year.

 

[mattis117]

A team Missing finals on 15 wins would be unlucky but it’s a mistake to compare it to other seasons and draw conclusions.
It was a much better achievement to win 15 last year or the year before compared to this year.
Thats because there was 13 or 14 decent teams in the league last year and the year before and there is only 9 this season.

At the end of the day one thing that will not lie is the position in the ladder at the conclusion of round 24.

Whoever finishes 9th will have had 8 teams that are just better than them over the course of a full AFL season. That is one fact that cannot be disputed.

Hopefully this team is good enough to ensure we are one of the best 8 teams in the league this year.

You can tell yourself that to feel better about it but you're wrong. This comp is uneven in many ways and the better team often is not the one higher on the ladder. There is a decent element of luck when it comes to the AFL.

For Freo, we usually need to be a top 6 team just to make the 8 due to the inequity in the league.

 

[freo_leo29]

A team Missing finals on 15 wins would be unlucky but it’s a mistake to compare it to other seasons and draw conclusions.
It was a much better achievement to win 15 last year or the year before compared to this year.
Thats because there was 13 or 14 decent teams in the league last year and the year before and there is only 9 this season.

At the end of the day one thing that will not lie is the position in the ladder at the conclusion of round 24.

Whoever finishes 9th will have had 8 teams that are just better than them over the course of a full AFL season. That is one fact that cannot be disputed.

Hopefully this team is good enough to ensure we are one of the best 8 teams in the league this year.

This is ignoring the fixture completely

If it was an even fixture then you could have a point (although some teams are better in the front or back half of the season too, injuries, form etc)

I think you can comfortably say now that you can throw a net over the top 9, the position of those can be impacted by multiple factors I've mentioned.

 

[BStaff17]

 

[Purple Jesus]

 

[Jezzitizle]

 

[swanny1234]

Haven't we all. Just have to get over it.

I’ll get over it when it doesn’t happen this season.

Until then I’m worried.

 

[Dockeroo]

You can tell yourself that to feel better about it but you're wrong. This comp is uneven in many ways and the better team often is not the one higher on the ladder. There is a decent element of luck when it comes to the AFL.

For Freo, we usually need to be a top 6 team just to make the 8 due to the inequity in the league.

This is ignoring the fixture completely

If it was an even fixture then you could have a point (although some teams are better in the front or back half of the season too, injuries, form etc)

I think you can comfortably say now that you can throw a net over the top 9, the position of those can be impacted by multiple factors I've mentioned.

I would have agreed in seasons past that we have been dudded by the fixture, but I don’t think that argument holds water this season.

• we got 13 games out of 23 at home in Perth
• we get to play one of the worst sides ever seen in the AFL era twice (most other top 9 teams don’t have that luxury)
• four of our six double ups are against sides from the bottom 9 also rans this season (saints, west coast, port and sydney). Of the 8 other good teams in 2025 we only play Collingwood and bulldogs twice.

There are teams that have advantages in other areas over freo in that top 9, clubs like Geelong and gold coast seem to have a lot of games against poor teams too, but I don’t think we are any real way disadvantaged in the fixture in 2025 compared to the likes of bulldogs, GWS and hawks.

Now if you want to talk about free agency and academies that’s a different matter. Those advantages are embedded in the comp and unrelated to the fixture.

For what it’s worth I think we’ll finish top 8 anyway.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I would have agreed in seasons past that we have been dudded by the fixture, but I don’t think that argument holds water this season.

• we got 13 games out of 23 at home in Perth
• we get to play one of the worst sides ever seen in the AFL era twice (most other top 9 teams don’t have that luxury)
• four of our six double ups are against sides from the bottom 9 also rans this season (saints, west coast, port and sydney). Of the 8 other good teams in 2025 we only play Collingwood and bulldogs twice.

There are teams that have advantages in other areas over freo in that top 9, clubs like Geelong and gold coast seem to have a lot of games against poor teams too, but I don’t think we are any real way disadvantaged in the fixture in 2025 compared to the likes of bulldogs, GWS and hawks.

Now if you want to talk about free agency and academies that’s a different matter. Those advantages are embedded in the comp and unrelated to the fixture.

For what it’s worth I think we’ll finish top 8 anyway.

Yeah, the fixture point is valid but we had a very good run on double ups this year. Brisbane actually got completely shafted in the end, their record is more impressive than it appears (not that I care, getting so unbelievably kissed on the dixk with their points kids the last 4 years).

Trying not to get pre-emptively upset but losing the last two to miss finals on 15 wins is sticking out like donkey balls at the moment even though I genuinely think we'll beat Brisbane at home.