Unofficial Preview Round 23, Friday, August 15th 8.20pm AEST @Optus v Dockers.

[Elixuh]

Vital ingredients to win a flag.

1- A good injury run.
2- Accurate set shots.
3- The draw.

Ingredients we have.
1- An elite coaching staff.
2- An elite first 23... if most are available.

We actually had the third worst run with injury to best 23 last year. I don't think the setbacks necessarily mean we can't win it (although we are pretty compromised at the moment with too many best 23 injuries). But for some teams who don't have that depth it'll absolutely be predictive of a rise or fall in fortunes.

 

[M Malice]

We actually had the third worst run with injury to best 23 last year. I don't think the setbacks necessarily mean we can't win it (although we are pretty compromised at the moment with too many best 23 injuries). But for some teams who don't have that depth it'll absolutely be predictive of a rise or fall in fortunes.

The main thing is to hit finals with most of your nominal best 23 available, and if you have a few injures they are not in the same area of the ground.

Who missed finals or some if it last year that would have been in the side, Kiddy, Big O? Anyone else.

 

[Elixuh]

The main thing is to hit finals with most of your nominal best 23 available, and if you have a few injures they are not in the same area of the ground.

Who missed finals or some if it last year that would have been in the side, Kiddy, Big O? Anyone else.

Based on them being in the best 23 when they were injured - Kiddy, Big O, Linc, Gardiner.

You can't count him, but assume that had Doedee not done another ACL, he may have been playing.

We also had a lot of other smaller injuries to best 23 throughout the year which is why our ranking on that 'best 23 injured' ladder was so bad.

 

[Sunny Land]

Thanks for the info. So the sort of thing that might come good start of next year?

IMO hippy is an enigma. Strange shape. Not really suited to any one position. But tries hard, makes a contest, and is great at little tap ons / handballs / shepherds.

I do think if he could get on the lead more he could get an extra shot or two a game at goal. 204cm and long arms hard to deal with. But maybe he is being asked to clear f50 for morris.

Ya think?

 

[Happy_Neale]

You wouldn't want the cats at the G? We match up pretty damn well against them.

I agree i don't want to go anywhere near GWS. They are our kyrptonite. i still don't know how we beat them in that final haha. hence my concern that in my ladder predictor we could get them away first week and crows away week 3.

I would take playing the crows over the cats yes. But I think we could beat both

 

[StevoJenkins]

Really missed Starce on Heeny last week. The umps didn't help the situation, really wanted to give free kicks to help them score, but what can you do.

If we win here, we are set for finals, and with a week break, who knows what we can pull out of the bag.

Lester and Starce in for Bruce and Doodee would be the only changes I would make. Kai comes in for either Charlie or Marshall, making Marshall the sub.

Don't agree with making Marshall the sub, as it's his ability to run out games that makes him good, but he isn't there yet in terms of impact.

Charlie is woefully out of form in terms of his goal output but, like Hippy, is doing a lot around the ground.

 

[twhowler]

I would take playing the crows over the cats yes. But I think we could beat both

Genuine question, on what basis?

We beat the cats pretty comprehensively at the cattery this year. We are also what 5 straight at the mcg?

I also think the key difference is they don't have the talls that trouble us without Payne. Even Jeremy Cameron hasn't got a hold off us for a while - his 4 goals from memory earlier this year were not a great reflection on his overall game. Kicked 1 i think in the earlier game?

I agree the crows are far from invincible but we would go in very confident against the cats

 

[Happy_Neale]

Genuine question, on what basis?

We beat the cats pretty comprehensively at the cattery this year. We are also what 5 straight at the mcg?

I also think the key difference is they don't have the talls that trouble us without Payne. Even Jeremy Cameron hasn't got a hold off us for a while - his 4 goals from memory earlier this year were not a great reflection on his overall game. Kicked 1 i think in the earlier game?

I agree the crows are far from invincible but we would go in very confident against the cats

A combination of things. For one they have a number of players who are very inexperienced in finals. They are also vulnerable under the right pressure against good teams which is not a good combination in finals. And I think we would take a lot of confidence from the last time we played them even though we lost. History says teams that bounce up the ladder from outside of finals the year before tend to honour cheaply before having deep finals runs.

Geelongs system and the fact they are battle tested in September worries me more despite our recent record against them. And they have last years prelim to atone for as well

 

[KissKiss]

Can Robertson run with Jordan Clark??

Clark is having a very good year and should be there abouts for AA discussions. Normally Ah Chee would be the one I want on him but reckon Dev could do a decent job to limit his run (probably better than McLachlan or a maybe not fit Lohman right now).

I know that Serong and Brayshaw are in great form but without Young I feel we should be able to match them reasonably well with Dunkley, McCluggage and Wash. I am a little worried that the Ashcrofts just dont quite defend enough in the midfield. Cant let them get clean forward ball to the three talls.

Amiss isnt in great form but he's too good to let totally free while we focus on Treacy and Voss. I really hope Lester is back in

 

[Bucking Beads]

Lets just worry about winning the next 2 games before worrying about who we play in finals. We know we can beat anyone if we turn up with the right mindset. Our biggest issue is we are too complacent and bordering on cocky that we have too much talent to put in the correct amount of effort.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Will need to keep a close eye on Reid to win this one.

 

[martinson]

We'll come out breathing fire this week after reading between the lines a dressing down was given about aspects of our game against the Swans.

Plus despite winning a lot of games Freo don't look anything special to me.

A lot rests on Fort because the Freo ruck combo is reasonably lethal as a package. Don't see how we give him much help looking at who's available so our m/f needs to be sharking at every opportunity.

I wouldn't say I'm brimming with confidence but we'll give a good account of ourselves.

 

[twhowler]

A combination of things. For one they have a number of players who are very inexperienced in finals. They are also vulnerable under the right pressure against good teams which is not a good combination in finals. And I think we would take a lot of confidence from the last time we played them even though we lost. History says teams that bounce up the ladder from outside of finals the year before tend to honour cheaply before having deep finals runs.

Geelongs system and the fact they are battle tested in September worries me more despite our recent record against them. And they have last years prelim to atone for as well

Fair enough. What tips the scales for me is we just struggle a bit at AO. And their 3 talls. I think they could come a cropper this finals series, but given their record at home, and the way challengers are falling over, that would likely be in the GF.

Things have seriously opened up for Adelaide

Pies have hit the skids massively

Cats are a good not great side (imo) but their bogey team at AO and they are set to avoid them there

Dockers and Suns could round out the top 4 - if the knock on the crows is lack of finals then they will love coming up against them. If their fellow top 4 teams are Geelong, Freo and Suns, that's a rails run. No actual MCG tenants.

Lions looking like they will miss top 4 and do it the hard way if at all, and missing Payne against the 3 tall crows

Hawks look dangerous but have their best player our for the year and almost certain to miss top 4

Giants almost certain to miss top 4.

Tex with just a little bit more petrol in the tank and can still make a difference.


Yes they are rising from a long absence in finals, but this is a golden opportunity. You never know who surges and improves next year. Look at us in 2020, everything lined up, we were young and thought we will only get better, then 2021 dees come from nowhere...

 

[Lionwest]

WOW BIG test for Forty and whoever partners him in the ruck, absolute monster ruck pairing that Freo have. If we lose the ruck contest badly then it will make it very difficult for us at Optus.

 

[M Malice]

WOW BIG test for Forty and whoever partners him in the ruck, absolute monster ruck pairing that Freo have. If we lose the ruck contest badly then it will make it very difficult for us at Optus.

Yer do not like the Darcy Fort, Henry Smith ruck combo, too slow around the ground, I did not watch the reserves on the weekend but some on here reporting that the Big O had a really good game, ZZ as well but far too big a task to ask him to debut against the Dockers ruck duo.

I'd prefer any of Oscar McInerney, Sam Day(reportedly very quiet in the reserves) or Ty Gallop over Henry, if it's Ty hopefully Fort is up to playing around 75-80% ruck time.

 

[harvester]

Fort will take them both down. He wants another flag. Our new Crackers Keating.
If our forwards get there act together, and Lester comes back in, we should win. The boys play well against a hostile crowd.

 

[twhowler]

Yer do not like the Darcy Fort, Henry Smith ruck combo, too slow around the ground, I did not watch the reserves on the weekend but some on here reporting that the Big O had a really good game, ZZ as well but far too big a task to ask him to debut against the Dockers ruck duo.

I'd prefer any of Oscar McInerney, Sam Day(reportedly very quiet in the reserves) or Ty Gallop over Henry, if it's Ty hopefully Fort is up to playing around 75-80% ruck time.

Please please please no to Fort and Oscar again.

Freo's 2 rucks are a monster and a super agile bloke. We have neither of them.

Agree Smith just looked off pace. I think he needs a pre season and uninterrupted run.

The main thing we need is a good contest in the forward line. Second ruck will be one or two centre clearances a quarter. We can always go a bit more defensive with Bez in for them if we are worried about Jackson.

 

[3KZ is Football]

Very interested to see what Fagan does with selection this week.

 

[mpal6]

Please please please no to Fort and Oscar again.

Freo's 2 rucks are a monster and a super agile bloke. We have neither of them.

Agree Smith just looked off pace. I think he needs a pre season and uninterrupted run.

The main thing we need is a good contest in the forward line. Second ruck will be one or two centre clearances a quarter. We can always go a bit more defensive with Bez in for them if we are worried about Jackson.

Oscar had 16 clearances in seconds. Now that's a statement game in terms of putting his hand up. We have to pick him on the back of that and if not Day. Only other option is Gallop who may be too young.

 

[M Malice]

For those who were there or watched the live stream was Oscar as good as some reported and did he look to be moving more freely around the ground?

Just went and had a look at Oscar's stats, not always the best indication as I prefer the eye test but they look pretty impressive.

23 possessions 15 kicks 8 handballs, 5 marks, 3 tackles, 1 goal, 13 clearances.

26 hit outs although they are a meaningless stat IMO.

 

[davemc_lions]

With Hippy I am not all gloom on him he playing up the ground.
Only problem I have with him is his goal kicking of late.
Groin, confidence etc not sure if straight in front I love him just to give it off sometimes.
Although saying that he is not alone missing from straight in front.
Bailey dropped off lately so to Rayner and Charlie and AhChee And that Dizzy 100m miss cost us on the weekend.
More chance to kick from a pocket them 30m out direct in front

 

[Grasshopper17]

With Lachie out our midfield were shooting from further out it seems but no stats on that.

There are absolutely stats on that. I'll post about it in the review thread if nobody else has raised it already.

 

[Grasshopper17]

If Starcs has some issues around a hammy can’t see they will risk him on a long flight to Perth. I guess we’re travelling on Thursday during the day so we’ll know if he’s on the flight before the team is named Thursday night

Surely we travel on the Wednesday this week.

 

[M Malice]

Surely we travel on the Wednesday this week.

Somebody IIRC Sunnyland said we are travelling on Wednesday.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Main concerns for mine are the obvious ones:

1. The attitude of our forwards and midfielders defensively (non-existent in 2 of the last 3 games). We probably need to get to minimum 10 tackles inside 50 and we only had 4 on Saturday.
2. The composition of our backline (less of an issue if #1 is adequate). I don't know who our best backups are but at this stage of the season we just need our best guys out there.

But also #3 is Freo's last quarters. Their come-from-behind wins are finally getting the warranted publicity, but it's not just on the scoreboard either. They're literally running over the top of teams. Craig McRae

Craig Mcrae

Age

52

Ht

176cm

Wt

73kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.9

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.9

4star

G

1.2

4star

No current season stats available

D

16.2

4star

K

10.6

4star

HB

5.6

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.2

3star

G

1.4

5star

said after Collingwood lost to them "maybe they should play that way more often". Well they were only able to play that way because they ran Collingwood off their legs, who weren't able to sustain their suffocating pressure for the full 4 quarters. If you go back and watch that last quarter it's a VERY different game to the first quarter.

So I think we're going to need a pretty hefty lead at 3 quarter time, particularly on the back of a 6 day break and the longest trip in football.