2016 AFL Semi Final - Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs, MCG, Friday, Sept 16th, 7.50pm

[BallaratBulldog]

I'm nervous. It's only 10:34am.

 

[Suma Magic]

Apples and oranges - we were a 100x more difficult opponent than West Coast last week.

Hawthorn had all their stars - Hodge, Mitchell, Lewis, Burgoyne, Rioli, Breust, Gunston - up and running last week. Despite the loss I thought they looked better than they'd looked all season.

We will know by 10.30 tonight whether it was a last ditch effort or a sign that they're warming up.

We smashed the Hawks a couple of weeks ago, dogs smashed us.

All signs point to Dogs.

Maybe I'm biased because I hate the Hawks

 

[Rusty22]

Cmon dogs, smash those cocky pricks.

 

[Franko Armani]

I hope the dogs win by 100 points.

lol, for Saints supporters, the one thing they will always have is .... hope

 

[Franko Armani]

Tune in to see the Masters of September go about their work tonight folks. Timing is everything.
Have a look at the Doggies fixture. In hindsight, they only played 5 good sides all year. I mean 5 games against quality opposition.
Must be the softest draw of the 2016 season? But still didn't make top 4. A solid win against a hapless, apathetic Eagles (as they have been all year) doesn't mean a great deal.
Wait for a spanking at the hands of the seasoned Hawks tonight.
Who will go down and out for the Bulldogs tonight? That's what the market should be focusing on.

 

[Super Hans]

Tune in to see the Masters of September go about their work tonight folks. Timing is everything.
Have a look at the Doggies fixture. In hindsight, they only played 5 good sides all year. I mean 5 games against quality opposition.
Must be the softest draw of the 2016 season? But still didn't make top 4. A solid win against a hapless, apathetic Eagles (as they have been all year) doesn't mean a great deal.
Wait for a spanking at the hands of the seasoned Hawks tonight.
Who will go down and out for the Bulldogs tonight? That's what the market should be focusing on.

Amazing how a side so s**t lost a massive one game less than your mob.

 

[Syphoncom]

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

​

To quote a certain McGuire, “what a big week it's been in football”. Although Geelong and Hawthorn's respective ladder placement ensured four weeks of Melbourne football, few expected an all-Victorian header in the first semi-final of week 2. A massive upset travelling over West, the Western Bulldogs more than took the challenge to the heavily favoured Eagles side. Their incredible win and the Hawks agonisingly close defeat sets the stage for a brilliant Friday night at the 'G.​

When & Where?

Semi Final 1, 7:50 PM FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 16, 2016 at the MCG

​

Following their 'away' game against Geelong last Friday night, it's déjà vu for Hawthorn, taking on the Bulldogs at the home of AFL. Unlike the situation last week, the Bulldogs really do suffer a minor disadvantage, playing the majority of their games at Etihad. With their poor form on the road – especially interstate – I was eager to point this out against the Eagles last week. To say it didn't matter would be understatement.

Statistically the Hawks have the edge, yet with five grand final appearances in the previous eight years, it isn't personal. On current form the Bulldogs have the ability to challenge the Hawks, and Friday night we see which team gets the opportunity to travel north, to take on GWS on their home turf.​

How will it happen?

​

In shades of last week, the Friday night encounter is an interesting match-up. A rematch of the game that saw Bob Murphy sidelined for the year with an ACL, their only clash this year saw a 3 point victory for the Hawks. Since that round 3 encounter, both teams have enjoyed successful seasons.

Like Geelong before them, the Bulldogs primary focus is manic pressure. Coach Luke Beveridge emphasised its importance in September, "finals are normally won with the intensity, the grunt, the appetite for the contest and the courage side of it”. After their win against the Eagles, few would deny the hard working Dogs personify the sentiment. They will tackle hard, force a tight contest and attempt to coerce Hawthorn into error. Yet like Geelong last week, the Bulldogs will know contested possession alone isn't enough against this team.

Well documented, Hawthorn's dominance despite being consistently beaten in contested football seems an anomaly. Trailing 118 to 170 against the Cats, statistically this sounds the death knell for most teams. However in typical Hawks fashion, their control of the ball when they do have it allows for efficiency moving forward. Nearly fifty more marks and nine inside-50's illustrates their game plan perfectly.

Hawthorn will lose possession in close without panic; their ability to set-up behind the ball and counter-attack is legendary. While the Dogs were able to get over the back of West Coast last week, the Hawthorn defenders won't make that mistake. Often sacrificing numbers around the ball, where the Bulldogs get loose on the break, expect tougher entries into the forward-50 this time.

Whilst it was the Hawthorn mid-fielders who shouldered the heaviest load last week, the Dogs don't possess a duo as dangerous as the Cats. Rather it is their quick movement forward that will pressure the defenders more this week than any other. This week, Hawthorn look to Birchall, Gibson and Duryea to keep the kennel quiet.

Knowing the Hawthorn midfield stars will always be a challenge, for the Bulldogs it is a reversal. Daniel, Dalhaus, and Boyd will need to be at their best to ensure they're a chance to cause yet another big upset.​

What will happen?

​

As of writing, the odds are:

​

The punters have paid attention to the drubbing the Bulldogs gave the Eagles last week, bringing their head-to-head price down to around $2.50. Coming off a trip to the other side of the country, such a short price seems unreasonable, in fact giving Hawthorn seemingly 'long' odds in their position.

Last time they met:

This time they meet:​

Almost everyone got it wrong last week; the Bulldogs are a September threat. Whether it was the travel west, the injury cloud they were under, or the question over their readiness in finals, there were reasons left, right and centre as to why they would stumble. They didn't.

Indeed the manner in which they dominated a difficult first-up final made for fantastic viewing. Still every year, under the current finals format, a winner plays a loser in week 2 of the final series. Perhaps an underdog with a fairytale victory, or a stumbling Grand Final favourite, sentimental favouritism seems to override a year's worth of work. Concessions must be made – this year has been the closest in recent memory – yet still there is a difference between the up and coming Bulldogs and perennial stalwarts Hawthorn.

For many reasons neutral fans would like to see another upset; a Bulldogs triumph would guarantee a Grand Final birth for at least one team not seen this century. And though it would be one for the heart, the head must choose Hawthorn. Beaten by just two points by arguably the best team this year, they couldn't have come closer to securing a sixth consecutive preliminary final.

Only five times in sixteen years has a team been eliminated from the finals in straight sets. Three times in the previous two years, it has become almost common and may well happen again this year. Unfortunately for Dogs fans, it's more likely Adelaide that will manage it.

The Bullies won't go down easily, but there's still fight in the brown and gold dog on their way to immortality.

Hawthorn by 27 points.

 

[Franko Armani]

Amazing how a side so s**t lost a massive one game less than your mob.

2 games

 

[joop]

lol, for Saints supporters, the one thing they will always have is .... hope

Try keep it on topic mate.

 

[RoveMac]

Hawks no chance - Go DOGS! I hate hawks!!

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

This match will be a cracker. The two best coaches in the league square off tonight, it should be a fascinating contest tactically. What has Bevvo come up with to stop Hawthorn's tried and tested gameplan? As always with the Hawks, you need to prevent them from taking a shitload of uncontested marks. They don't win the contested ball so if they can't get it out wide and keep the ball off you then you've got the edge. As we all know from the past five seasons, easier said than done.

Key players to sit on for mine are obviously Mitchell but I also think Gibson is very important. You can't shut them all down, too many champions but Captain Obvious says Sammy and Gibbo are the ones. I reckon the key is limited niggle but you have to have the ability to switch back on and play football. I think Geelong did this well last week where North a few months ago in their first clash against the Hawks did not. I think Geelong did ok on Mitchell and Gibson in terms of damaging play (if not raw disposals) but some of our mistakes were laughable as we arguably fluffed our lines on the big stage against the kings. If the Dogs can build on last week and throw caution to the wind they can bring a tougher contest than what the Cats managed last week.

Dogs by 11 points.

 

[Pavlovs Cat]

There is no disaster scenario for Hawthorn. We've just won 3 flags in 3 years. This year would just be the cream on the cream on the cream on the cake.

Hope you players are thinking this cos we've all had enough.

 

[Pigdog]

2 games

1 if you include last week.

 

[Zevon]

Tactically I think a really strong case can be made for the Doggies in this one. If they gain the upper hand in contested possession, and many are expecting them to do so, then they could really open up the slower Hawthorn team with outside run.

On the other side of the ledger, I'm not hearing much of a breakdown of how the Hawks would actually go about winning the game. It's just generic stuff like "the Hawks will be angry", "the Hawks always lift for big games", "The Hawks never lose to the Bulldogs", "The Hawks never lose two in a row"... that sort of stuff. Pretty cliched and not very convincing.

I guess we'll know for sure in a few hours but I can see the Bulldogs winning this by 2-3 goals, possibly more if they really take their chances.

 

[MJ_Dogs]

Tune in to see the Masters of September go about their work tonight folks. Timing is everything.
Have a look at the Doggies fixture. In hindsight, they only played 5 good sides all year. I mean 5 games against quality opposition.
Must be the softest draw of the 2016 season? But still didn't make top 4. A solid win against a hapless, apathetic Eagles (as they have been all year) doesn't mean a great deal.
Wait for a spanking at the hands of the seasoned Hawks tonight.
Who will go down and out for the Bulldogs tonight? That's what the market should be focusing on.

That same eagles side that flogged you two weeks before the finals?

 

[Kony Abbott]

This match will be a cracker. The two best coaches in the league square off tonight, it should be a fascinating contest tactically. What has Bevvo come up with to stop Hawthorn's tried and tested gameplan? As always with the Hawks, you need to prevent them from taking a shitload of uncontested marks. They don't win the contested ball so if they can't get it out wide and keep the ball off you then you've got the edge. As we all know from the past five seasons, easier said than done.

Key players to sit on for mine are obviously Mitchell but I also think Gibson is very important. You can't shut them all down, too many champions but Captain Obvious says Sammy and Gibbo are the ones. I reckon the key is limited niggle but you have to have the ability to switch back on and play football. I think Geelong did this well last week where North a few months ago in their first clash against the Hawks did not. I think Geelong did ok on Mitchell and Gibson in terms of damaging play (if not raw disposals) but some of our mistakes were laughable as we arguably fluffed our lines on the big stage against the kings. If the Dogs can build on last week and throw caution to the wind they can bring a tougher contest than what the Cats managed last week.

Dogs by 11 points.

watch for Zaine Cordy to play a negating role on Gibson similar to the one he played on McGovern last week.

 

[freddy mercury]

make that overrated campaigner gibson defend and you win. he is rubbish as a one on one defender.

And I reckon the dogs leg speed will push the Hawks.
Plus knock them out.

 

[bungwahl]

Tom Mitchell tried to tag Sam Mitchell and failed. If you can't tag him, join em.

Did a great job on him the first time we played this year.

 

[Cynic]

The biggest certainty about this match is that next week the winner will get violated.

I intend to enjoy the game and really hope the winner, even if it's the Dogs takes it up to the Giants.

 

[pazza]

Footscray will win.

Why?
You watch how they play footy. Attacking, fresh, vibrant.

Dogs by 10 points.

 

[Wild Bill]

Getting excited now. This should be a cracker. Does the aging warriors have one last push up against the fast and furious young guns.

Hoping its a tough brutal close game.

 

[Wild Bill]

Footscray will win.

Why?
You watch how they play footy. Attacking, fresh, vibrant.

Dogs by 10 points.

Don't they play tomorrow?

 

[SCRAY72]

Tune in to see the Masters of September go about their work tonight folks. Timing is everything.
Have a look at the Doggies fixture. In hindsight, they only played 5 good sides all year. I mean 5 games against quality opposition.
Must be the softest draw of the 2016 season? But still didn't make top 4. A solid win against a hapless, apathetic Eagles (as they have been all year) doesn't mean a great deal.
Wait for a spanking at the hands of the seasoned Hawks tonight.
Who will go down and out for the Bulldogs tonight? That's what the market should be focusing on.

Teams lucky enough to play Essendon and Brisbane twice in 2016 had softer draws.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Tactically I think a really strong case can be made for the Doggies in this one. If they gain the upper hand in contested possession, and many are expecting them to do so, then they could really open up the slower Hawthorn team with outside run.

On the other side of the ledger, I'm not hearing much of a breakdown of how the Hawks would actually go about winning the game. It's just generic stuff like "the Hawks will be angry", "the Hawks always lift for big games", "The Hawks never lose to the Bulldogs", "The Hawks never lose two in a row"... that sort of stuff. Pretty cliched and not very convincing.

I guess we'll know for sure in a few hours but I can see the Bulldogs winning this by 2-3 goals, possibly more if they really take their chances.

How have the Hawks won all their close games against top sides this year? Lot of talk about contested ball, but the Hawks have been routinely smashed in that stat all year, and yet won most of their games or only barely lost. Hawthorn's ability to control the ball by foot and create space in their forward line is what keeps them in games. Even last week, Geelong smashed them in contested ball, but the Hawks' system won out.

 

[gavaniacono]

I'm nervous. It's only 10:34am.

Go Dogs!