tl;dr: West Coast, Adelaide, GWS, Sydney, North Melbourne, Dogs, Port Adelaide; can all be considered track-track bullies to some degree?
In this years edition of flat-track bullies, we'll be looking at teams that beat and often dominate inferior opposition, both home and away, and teams that simply cannot win away from home regardless of the strength of their opponents.
When using the term "flat-track bully" in AFL, we typically associate it with teams that are considered to have a significant home-ground advantage (eg. Geelong, Perth teams, Sydney). This is commonly due to several key factors, such as a unique size or shape of the ground, playing conditions and travel distances.
When considering those factors, the 2 Perth based teams and Geelong traditionally and historically hold the greatest home ground advantages. Both grounds are hard, long and narrow and encourage playing the ball through the centre corridor. In recent times it's been notoriously difficult for teams to travel to either of those venues and win games against Geelong or West Coast. Sydney is another team that has a unique home ground advantage with their very wide and short oval. The ground is now longer than it used to be, but it is still considerably shorter than SS, DS or the MCG. The size of the SCG resembles Etihad more than any of the other ovals.
Strength of draw ratings are always subjective, since they are predicated on the form of the team's previous season. That's why more reactive modelling like Final Siren's Squiggles is a better form guide.
Teams
West Coast
Record: 4-3
Away Wins: 0
Away Losses: 3
West Coast haven't won a game away from their home venue since round 16, 2015, a run that includes heavy losses to Hawthorn, Adelaide and Sydney, with the average losing margin close to 50 points. You have to go all the way back to 2014 for the last time that West Coast beat a "top 8" (at the time) team on the road. While some will argue Richmond was a top team at the time (let's not kid ourselves here), they certainly didn't finish any of their recent seasons as a top team, always seemingly snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. West Coast have to win away from home and they have to beat a top-opponent (or even a mid-table team) to have any shot of winning a flag.
Adelaide
Record: 4-4
Away Wins: 1
Away Losses: 3
With losses against 3 top 8 sides, 2 genuine premiership contenders and a single win against a top 4 side, albeit at home, it seems as if though the Crows are sliding into flat-track bull status. They were anticipated to slide this year, but when they've won well, they've well and truly dominated teams. They have big, big issues traveling at the moment and don't look likely at any venue, and have dropped their first home game of the season. They've been a favourite with the punters and fans, but the bookies haven't jumped aboard the hype train. Are they the real deal, or just another in the list of pretenders?
GWS Giants
Record: 5-2
Away Wins: 2
Away Losses: 2
Like a fine wine, they simply get better with age. I suppose that's what happens when you have access to top talent and very smart recruiting. No one would have thought it possible to label them this, and only time will tell if they're a genuine contender (I think they are). However, with home wins against genuine title challengers (Geelong, Hawthorn) and away losses to Sydney and Melbourne, are they title challengers, or just another team that can't win on the road.
For what it's worth, their win against Fremantle didn't prove that much, since Fremantle already lost to Carlton at home the previous week.
Sydney Swans
Record: 6-1
Away Wins: 2
Away Losses: 1
When the fixtures get compared and Sydney inevitably ends up with a middle-of-the-road challenging season, it's always written off as an AFL favoured fixture. The Swans have already played grand final hopefuls West Coast and Adelaide (losing a tight game) as well as fast rises GWS. Whilst the Swans have played 4 of the bottom 5 clubs already this season, only 1 game was a walkover, which each team giving the Swans a real red-hot go. The next 2 weeks will be telling for whether or not the Swans can only win on their own dung heap, or if they're legitimate flag contenders.
North Melbourne
Record: 7-0
Away Wins:
Away Losses: 0
It's hard to find a less convincing table-topping team than North, except if you look at Fremantle from last season. They've played away from ES just 3 times this season and one of those was a home game in Tasmania. A close win against Adelaide got their season off to a nice start, then a strong win against Fremantle reaffirmed their top-team status. However, they are a lucky club, playing stronger opponents at the best possible times. Fans might complain about the armchair ride that teams like Collingwood and Essendon get with fixtures, but North take it to another level. Outside of the 2015 finals series (discounting of course a rubbish Richmond @ the G, and an injury destroyed Swans), the last time North beat any team on the road that was any good was Geelong in round 4, 2015. In that time, they've beaten some top clubs and lost to some top clubs at home. It's going to take a long time to get a true reading on the Roos, since their next 3 "road trips" are to the SCG, AO and DS. After which they don't even leave Melbourne for an away game (they go to Tas for a home game against the Swans)
Western Bulldogs
Record: 5-2 * their first 7 games were all at Etihad, so essentially home games
Away Wins: 2
Away Losses: 1
I'm not even sure how I can put down any of the Dogs' away wins as actual away wins. Every team they've played this season has been at ES. But they have made the most of it, with a thumping win against Fremantle and a close win against Adelaide, but nonetheless, a close loss to Hawthorn. Why do they fall into flat-track bully status? It's a difficult one, since they're playing close games against the teams around them, but since they haven't left the dome yet this season, it's truly difficult to gauge their season. A win against the Swans kick-started their season in 2015, could they do it again against GWS? If they can win away from ES, then they're the real deal, but if they can't, then they're just as bad as the Eagles.
Port Adelaide
Record: 4-3
Away Wins: 1
Away Losses: 2
Due to popular demand, Port Adelaide make the list! Why might you say? Even after beating Richmond @ the MCG by 35 points, they've been flogged by teams in the top 8, while flogging teams in the bottom 4-5. Port haven't played a single close game this season, with their average result margins a whopping 56 points! No other team is getting it done, or getting done like Port. But what about last season you ask? Well, compared to virtually every other team in this post, they actually beat opponents better than them, both home and away. They were the only team to beat Hawthorn twice (since I can remember) in the regular season, North away, Adelaide away. But all this was in the first half of the season when top 4 beckoned. Their training wheels well and truly fell off in the 2nd half of the season and they couldn't even catch a cold to save themselves. But they still won their last 4 games, beating Hawthorn (premiers), GWS, Suns and Fremantle (a bit of a nothing match really).
So make of it what you will.
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