- Feb 28, 2009
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NFL 2018 NFL - Divisional Round
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
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If Foles can turn that score and loss around from earlier in the season against the Saints into a win ill be amazed, but the bloke amazes me already so the hell knows.
Wentz trade talk will start to become even spicier if does happen though.
Wentz trade talk will start to become even spicier if does happen though.
RooBoyz24
NMFC 10
Cmon Dallas keep the dream alive please.
- Feb 25, 2013
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Unfortunately it'll probably be the same as every year. Top 4 will win and move on
- Feb 25, 2013
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Chiefs/chargers
Eagles/cowboys
Would be fckn awesome outside of the chiefs factor
Eagles/cowboys
Would be fckn awesome outside of the chiefs factor
- Apr 8, 2006
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* it's going to be good.
True North
Norm Smith Medallist
Rams
Foles
Brady
Chiefs
Foles
Brady
Chiefs
quotemokc
Brownlow Medallist
I just want the Saints to lose.
Colts will probably have over 200 yards rushing if it doesn't turn into a shoot out early.
Colts will probably have over 200 yards rushing if it doesn't turn into a shoot out early.
Reminds me of when David Stern always wanted the Lakers vs the Lakers in the NBA Finals
- Jul 1, 2013
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Interesting weekend
Some narratives played out as expected, some certainly didn’t.
Backing home teams only yielded 1/4, and that one was the least favoured (Cowboys).
Backing the best defence didn’t work (Bears, Ravens).
Backing the best/form QB was generally a good pick (Colts, Chargers, Eagles).
Makes predicting the divisional round interesting. Especially given the home teams probably don’t have that great of an advantage (Chargers travel well, Chiefs choke at home, Rams won’t have much of a home field advantage), and most of the teams have strong defence and QB play.
Some narratives played out as expected, some certainly didn’t.
Backing home teams only yielded 1/4, and that one was the least favoured (Cowboys).
Backing the best defence didn’t work (Bears, Ravens).
Backing the best/form QB was generally a good pick (Colts, Chargers, Eagles).
Makes predicting the divisional round interesting. Especially given the home teams probably don’t have that great of an advantage (Chargers travel well, Chiefs choke at home, Rams won’t have much of a home field advantage), and most of the teams have strong defence and QB play.
- Feb 25, 2013
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The irony that you said Foles and Brady but didn't say Mahomes
- Jul 1, 2013
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FiveThirtyEight has all the games as relatively balanced - max 4.5 handicap (for Indi and Dallas). All smaller handicaps than the current official lines.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo
- Nov 9, 2012
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If Foles goes into NO and knocks them out, I’ll be convinced on 2 things.
Foles is actually some sort of god and
They’re winning the Super Bowl again.
Foles is actually some sort of god and
They’re winning the Super Bowl again.
- Feb 25, 2013
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Hoping eagles win it all so they trade us wentz
Burningleviathan
Norm Smith Medallist
- Apr 27, 2007
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Rams are a big play action team aren't they? We have a terrible play action defense.
Rams can't stop the run game though.
I guess it's a matter of which D can get stops and red zone conversion.
Unfortunately, The Rams will out perform us in converting TDs. I see too many FGs costing Dallas.
Rams can't stop the run game though.
I guess it's a matter of which D can get stops and red zone conversion.
Unfortunately, The Rams will out perform us in converting TDs. I see too many FGs costing Dallas.
- Feb 25, 2013
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So I checked and in the Belichick era they're 15-1 in the playoffs against teams they haven't played that season. Sole loss was Super Bowl LII.
To add to that
PHX
Quarterback Style
Celsius. So not a complete blizzard but still below zero C and some snow showers would be more challenging for the Chargers to manage than the Pats.
- Feb 25, 2013
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The lamp hahaha
- Feb 25, 2013
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This AFC season really reminds me of 2013
Chiefs = Broncos
Pats = Pats
Chargers = Chiefs
Colts = Chargers
Chiefs/Broncos high flying offense, lost to NE earlier in the year but still won enough games to take the #1 seed.
Pats had a a bit of a down year, still good enough to get the #2 seed, but looking very vulnerable.
Chargers/Chiefs won a lot of games, but had to settle for the WC because of the Chiefs/Broncos doing so well
Colts/Chargers are that scrappy team who had to get hot late to sneak into the playoffs, then won in the WC round and are being well backed against the #1 seed in the divisional round regardless of their underdog status.
So based on 2013
Chiefs get out to a sizeable lead before just hanging on at the end as Colts storm back
Pats struggle a bit in the first half but win comfortably in the end
Chiefs beat the Pats comfortably in the AFCCG
Chiefs = Broncos
Pats = Pats
Chargers = Chiefs
Colts = Chargers
Chiefs/Broncos high flying offense, lost to NE earlier in the year but still won enough games to take the #1 seed.
Pats had a a bit of a down year, still good enough to get the #2 seed, but looking very vulnerable.
Chargers/Chiefs won a lot of games, but had to settle for the WC because of the Chiefs/Broncos doing so well
Colts/Chargers are that scrappy team who had to get hot late to sneak into the playoffs, then won in the WC round and are being well backed against the #1 seed in the divisional round regardless of their underdog status.
So based on 2013
Chiefs get out to a sizeable lead before just hanging on at the end as Colts storm back
Pats struggle a bit in the first half but win comfortably in the end
Chiefs beat the Pats comfortably in the AFCCG
- Feb 25, 2013
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74-38
Indianapolis Colts (+2|+19|+19) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+19|0|+9) = Indianapolis (+12) - 4 - 9 = Kansas City +1
IND: 27.1-26.3 = 26.7 + (21/4) = 32.0 - (4.5/10) = 31.5 - 1.5 = 30.0
KC: 35.3-21.5 = 28.4 + (19/4) = 33.2 + (4.5/10) = 33.7 + 1.5 = 35.2
Kansas City 35-30
Dallas Cowboys (-17|+9|-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (+11|+4|+4) = Los Angeles (+29) - 1 + 7 = Los Angeles +35
DAL: 21.2-24.0 = 22.6 + (-8/4) = 20.6 - (3.5/10) = 20.2 - 1.5 = 18.7
LAR: 32.9-20.3 = 26.9 + (15/4) = 30.7 + (3.5/10) = 31.1 + 1.5 = 32.6
Los Angeles 33-19
Los Angeles Chargers (+12|+13|0) @ New England Patriots (+6|+1|+7) = Los Angeles (+11) - 1 - 1 = Los Angeles +9
LAC: 26.8-20.3 = 23.6 + (25/4) = 29.9 - (0.5/10) = 29.8 - 1.5 = 28.3
NE: 27.3-20.6 = 24.0 + (7/4) = 25.8 + (0.5/10) = 25.9 + 1.5 = 27.4
Los Angeles 28-27
Philadelphia Eagles (+11|-24|-4) @ New Orleans Saints (+12|+1|+9) = New Orleans (+39) + 5 - 1 = New Orleans +43
PHI: 22.9-22.1 = 22.5 + (-13/4) = 19.2 - (0.5/10) = 19.1 - 1.5 = 17.6
NO: 31.5-21.8 = 26.7 + (13/4) = 30.3 + (0.5/10) = 30.4 + 1.5 = 31.9
New Orleans 32-18
Indianapolis Colts (+2|+19|+19) @ Kansas City Chiefs (+19|0|+9) = Indianapolis (+12) - 4 - 9 = Kansas City +1
IND: 27.1-26.3 = 26.7 + (21/4) = 32.0 - (4.5/10) = 31.5 - 1.5 = 30.0
KC: 35.3-21.5 = 28.4 + (19/4) = 33.2 + (4.5/10) = 33.7 + 1.5 = 35.2
Kansas City 35-30
Dallas Cowboys (-17|+9|-2) @ Los Angeles Rams (+11|+4|+4) = Los Angeles (+29) - 1 + 7 = Los Angeles +35
DAL: 21.2-24.0 = 22.6 + (-8/4) = 20.6 - (3.5/10) = 20.2 - 1.5 = 18.7
LAR: 32.9-20.3 = 26.9 + (15/4) = 30.7 + (3.5/10) = 31.1 + 1.5 = 32.6
Los Angeles 33-19
Los Angeles Chargers (+12|+13|0) @ New England Patriots (+6|+1|+7) = Los Angeles (+11) - 1 - 1 = Los Angeles +9
LAC: 26.8-20.3 = 23.6 + (25/4) = 29.9 - (0.5/10) = 29.8 - 1.5 = 28.3
NE: 27.3-20.6 = 24.0 + (7/4) = 25.8 + (0.5/10) = 25.9 + 1.5 = 27.4
Los Angeles 28-27
Philadelphia Eagles (+11|-24|-4) @ New Orleans Saints (+12|+1|+9) = New Orleans (+39) + 5 - 1 = New Orleans +43
PHI: 22.9-22.1 = 22.5 + (-13/4) = 19.2 - (0.5/10) = 19.1 - 1.5 = 17.6
NO: 31.5-21.8 = 26.7 + (13/4) = 30.3 + (0.5/10) = 30.4 + 1.5 = 31.9
New Orleans 32-18
- Sep 6, 2005
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Can you re-post the wild card round projections you made for comparison?
- Feb 25, 2013
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Colts 22-20
Seahawks 25-16
Ravens 22-22
Bears 22-10
Bad week so will probably go 4-0 or 3-1 this week
A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
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A11dAtP0w3R
Dumpster Fire Diver
- Oct 18, 2013
- 89,390
- 125,841
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- Melbourne
- Other Teams
- Carolina Panthers
What adjustments are you making to this model over the offseason LA, anything standout that needs to change?
- Feb 25, 2013
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I'll mainly focus on the totals. I had a positive record against the spread. Only started tracking results since like week 12. I was negative against the total but that will hopefully be easier to fix than the spreads
straight up it's been roughly the same as the last few years, like a 67% win rate
