First Qualifying Final
Richmond Tigers v Hawthorn Hawks
Thursday, 6th of September 2018
7:20 PM - MCG
Season Summary
The Hawks started their year above expectations - most experts tipped them to finish outside the 8, but they won 5 of their first 8 matches against solid opposition, losing only to Richmond, North Melbourne and a close one to Sydney, which they avenged later in the year. Interestingly, they lost both encounters against Brisbane, and lost them well. Gunston, Stratton and Breust have enjoyed career best seasons, Mitchell is heavy favourite for the Brownlow, their fans saw a solid consistent season from Jaeger O'Meara, and have unearthed some genuine best 22 kids in Worpel and Morrison.
Richmond picked up where they left off at the end of 2017, a bad loss to the pent-up Crows in Round 2 the only blip in the first 8 matches before succumbing to a rampant West Coast in Perth in Round 9. The Tigers lost only 2 games for the rest of the year after that, both coming interstate, yet come into this match having survived scares in close wins over the Bulldogs, Bombers and Cats save for a 70+ Point win over a hapless Gold Coast.
Recent History
The Tigers have had the wood over the Hawks in recent encounters, winning 4 of the last 5 matches. In Hawthorn's premiership years, the Tigers always seemed to match up well on them, upsetting them on many occasions. The two sides last met in Round 3 of this season. In what was an early arm wrestle the Tigers got out to a lead of 39 points in the last, before Hawthorn came home hard late, kicking 5 of the last 6 goals to go down by 13 points, although the Tigers never really looked threatened throughout the day.
Incredibly, these two sides have won 24 premierships between them, yet have NEVER played each other in a final.
Stats that Matter
On paper, looking at key statistics that are generally considered critical in terms of winning a game of AFL football, you'd think that Hawthorn have Richmond covered in a lot the key areas. The Hawks game style is heavily based around kicking into space and keeping possession - the Hawks rank 3rd in the comp for kicks and 4th for marks - Richmond rank 14th and 16th in these areas respectively.
Both sides are highly attacking - Richmond have kicked the 2nd most goals this year and Hawthorn 6th, and these two teams are the number 2 and 3 inside 50's per game leaders - Richmond averaging 4 more i50's per game - could this prove the difference in a tight encounter? This game could come down to who wins the ball more, and Richmond have the 2nd worst clearance record in the game - however the stats don't tell the full story - the Tigers are the #1 team in the comp for 'knocks to advantage' - often electing not to take possession in order to put the ball to a teammate in space, and gain territory in this method. Two very contrasting styles of play, but both result in high scoring.
Players to Watch
Luke Breust and James Sicily
Both players have had stellar years, Luke Breust making the All-Australian team and Sicily probably unlucky to miss out. The Hawks have got two very capable talls up forward in Roughead and Gunston, but the mid-sized forward in Breust can be the difference as he is so difficult to match up on. Breust kicked 53 goals this year, and works extremely hard - he ranked 4th in the comp for tackles inside 50, and was top 15 in the comp for inside 50's per game. Dylan Grimes will likely get the rough assignment on him here.
Sicily is perhaps most well known for his very punchable head, however there's no question he can play. He ranks 8th in the comp for marks per game, and 2nd for intercept marks - he also uses the ball well, ranking 2nd in the comp for metres gained (behind our own Jaidyn Short). Alistair Clarkson will want him spare, and Richmond will want to do their best to keep the ball away from him when kicking forward.
Alex Rance and Shane Edwards
These two players play very similar roles to their Hawthorn counterparts above. Rance is the defensive general who likes to play spare but always gets across to impact contests. He is the #1 intercept mark player in the competition - and once he gets it, he uses it well. He is in the top 20 in the comp for disposal efficiency - a trait that a lot of key backs aren't known for. He is also 3rd in the comp for one-percenters. Although he has been down on form in recent weeks, he will still prove to be a thorn in the side for Hawthorn going forward and they'd want to avoid him in the air. Shane Edwards has just been given his first All-Australian selection, and the underrated forward/midfielder provides a lot of spark for the Tigers. He is 2nd in the competition for inside 50's and goal assists, and is capable of kicking goals himself. Quick handballs to break open a pack have become a trademark of his game, and if the Tigers can get the ball in his hands, they'll be well placed.
Key Matchups
Jack Riewoldt v Ben Stratton
Jack Graham v Tom Mitchell
The young fridge built Richmond midfielder loves this time of year! He'll likely spend time minding the #1 ball winner in the competition and Brownlow favourite in Tom Mitchell. There are questions over whether he really hurts teams when he gets the ball, but if you can get it 50 times you're doing something right. Mitchell is 1st in the comp for disposals and 9th for inside 50's, and works pretty hard defensively too. Graham will look to smother him around the contests, and tackling is a feature of his game - ranking 15th for average tackles per game which is incredible for a 2nd year player. We all know he is capable of getting forward and kicking a goal too, booting three in the 1st quarter vs the Doggies and there was another occasion late last year where he kicked 3 goals too...
Possible Changes
Mirra, Schoenmakers, Miles and Nash are probably the ones in the firing line for Hawthorn, have been in and out of the side all year and relatively quiet in their last game. The Hawthorn VFL side had a thrilling weekend overtime win, and Whitecross and Duryea were named in their bests. Frawley and Birchall are listed as "test" on the injury list, Frawley is a chance but Birchall hasn't played all year and would be very underdone. Expect Sicily to get up from a wrist injury and come straight back in to the side, while Ceglar is a chance to return too.
For Richmond, Kane Lambert should be fit and ready to go, and someone is going to be very unlucky to be dropped for him. Brandon Ellis, Jack Higgins and Reece Conca are the 3 most likely in the gun, but none have really done anything wrong. The Tigers, if they fancy another tall target could call on Callum Moore, and Sam Lloyd is probably next in line to come in for any injuries, and Markov was held over for the VFL game in the last quarter. Very unlikely to be any changes other than Lambert in, barring injury.
Where Hawthorn can win the game
Hawthorn's game relies on pressure, high scoring, and a keepings-off style kicking game. They'll want to win the clearances, and get the ball in their best ball-users hands. Look for a lot of run off halfback from Isaac Smith, Jarman Impey, Stratton and youngster Harry Morrison, and will try to create space inside 50 for Roughead, Gunston and Breust. The Hawks will happily turn this game into an arm wrestle - winning their last 4 games by under 2 goals, showing they can ice a tight game.
Where Richmond can win the game
Richmond has been a poor clearance team all season long, however expect them to lift in this department in finals intensity. Sometimes it seems as if they let the opposition win the ball in order to tackle them and hit them on the break. Richmond's defence has been rock solid all season, working well to block for each other and cover other forwards, while using the ball well. Grimes, Astbury and Rance will win the ball in the air and feed the ball to runners Short and Houli, and the Tigers will look to rebound quickly to an open forward line where their plethora of small forwards can run onto it. The Tigers will look to implement their zone to avoid Hawthorn having space to play their short kicking game.
Final Word
This shapes up to be a cracking match, 1 v 4, two attacking sides with great skill sets, one coming off a grand final win and one that has exceeded expectations for this season. Some seasoned finals veterans with a good mix of young kids hungry for success.
At the end of the day, Richmond have been the best side all year, and Hawthorn, to quote Chris Scott, will "need a lot to go right for them to win". Richmond's stingy defence should be solid enough to keep the Hawks to a relatively low score, and their pressure game is built for finals and should be enough to run over the top. Expect this one to be an arm wrestle before Richmond pull away late.
Richmond by 27 Points
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