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I'd be happy with Sloane and Kelly over the next 2 years
Sloane would be 29 by the time he got to round 1 2019. Will the Crows or Sloane demand a trade? He would cost too much for a 70-90 game player on the decline. No thanks.
Something that has me somewhat bemused is the high number of delistings at all clubs this year, in a year when the draft is said to be very shallow. Maybe the number has been just as high in years gone by and I haven't realised it but it all seems a bit odd in my opinion. In our case I was surprised at all of Gibbo, Fishy and LT getting delisted, given their replacements are going to be in the tail end of the draft or re-cycled from other clubs.
Granted some clubs such as Port Adelaide and Carlton have also traded in players, but the overall picture is in my eyes at least higher than normal.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings
Any ideas anyone on this?
The free agency thing has created a new scenario where it is presently difficult to gauge trends. The market is much more dynamic as a result.
In our case, we are preparing the list for 2020 and onwards. Teams like Port are loading up for 2018.
Yes I understand what we are doing however there still has to be some good depth of talent to pick up and everyone seems to be saying this draft doesn't have it. .
Okay, my comments were more in relation to what we really need. I honestly believe we are set when it comes to forward and defender and rucks. Perhaps another KPF, if one is there.
I can't see any 200 game dyed in the wool midfielders slipping to pick 23.
Something that has me somewhat bemused is the high number of delistings at all clubs this year, in a year when the draft is said to be very shallow. Maybe the number has been just as high in years gone by and I haven't realised it but it all seems a bit odd in my opinion. In our case I was surprised at all of Gibbo, Fishy and LT getting delisted, given their replacements are going to be in the tail end of the draft or re-cycled from other clubs.
Granted some clubs such as Port Adelaide and Carlton have also traded in players, but the overall picture is in my eyes at least higher than normal.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/features/retirements-and-delistings
Any ideas anyone on this?
You speaking specifically about the 2017 draft? In general a reasonable number of decent mids get to the 3rd round+.
This is a good observation and I think it says as much about the concept of FA and the depth of the 2018 pool than it does about this years crop.
I expect a number of teams to run with expanded rookie lists in 2017 thus expect to see plenty of passing in later rounds. This allows clubs the flexibility to put this years speculative later picks on 1 year deals whilst at the same time creating greater cap space allowing teams to be more able to compete with the likes of North in offers to elite talent as well as providing the option for a bigger intake from next years pool via increased primary list vacancies.
Gold Coast don't have a pick before us anymore - it's Freo's now.Might still have a chance of getting Rayner going by what l read today.....Brisbane , Carlton and Gold Coast are "supposedly" interested in other players.
I can't see any 200 game dyed in the wool midfielders slipping to pick 23.
Off the top of my head gun mids taken later than that: Dayne Beams, Rory Sloane, Dane Swan.
Off the top of my head gun mids taken later than that: Dayne Beams, Rory Sloane, Dane Swan.
Are we counting Hanneberry and Parker? Swallow?
Are we counting Hanneberry and Parker? Swallow?
Yes, but what are the statistical probabilities?
Let's say it's 10 players over the last 10 years, after pick 20.
Let's also guesstimate for arguments sake that 50 players have been take post pick 20, a season, over this 10 years.
This equates to a one in 50 chance, or 2%. Then we need to factor in 10 players amongst 18 competing clubs.
10/18= 0.56% x 2% = a 1.12% chance in any given season of landing a quality 200 game midfielder, post pick 20, in a draft.
Make it 20 players and double the odds to 2.25% if you like. It's certainly not something you would pin your drafting strategy upon.
OK, stuff it. Following players taken after pick 20 in the ten drafts prior to this. Have selected on basis that they play or have played as mids, and if they haven't yet played 200 games (the closer they get to this year, by definition the fewer games they can have played, so for those players I'm going on basis would they get a game in North's midfield):
2007: Scott Selwood, Jack Steven, Pearce Hanley. (3)
2008: David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Dan Hanneberry, Steven Motlop, Liam Shiels, Rory Sloane, Tom Rockliff, Ricky Henderson, Liam Picken, Luke Breust, Matthew Suckling. (11)
2009: Mitch Duncan, Taylor Duryea, Michael Barlow, Zach Tuohy (4)
2010: Luke Parker, Paul Seedsman, Luke Dalhaus, Jason Johanissen (4)
2011: Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale, Rory Laird, Mark Blicavs (4)
2012 : Jack Viney, Lachie Hunter (2)
2013: Matt Crouch, Zach Merrett, George Hewett, Riley Knight, Charlie Cameron (5)
2014: Jack Steele, Connor Blakely, Caleb Daniel, Kane Lambert, Conor McKenna (5)
2015: None (too early to tell?)
2016: Will Hayward, Brandan Parfitt. (2)
So every year there's a gun taken after 20, some years many.
Viney & Hunter were F/S whilst Steele was an academy pick thus they dont really count.
That's where they were bid on, do count.
OK, stuff it. Following players taken after pick 20 in the ten drafts prior to this. Have selected on basis that they play or have played as mids, and if they haven't yet played 200 games (the closer they get to this year, by definition the fewer games they can have played, so for those players I'm going on basis would they get a game in North's midfield):
2007: Scott Selwood, Jack Steven, Pearce Hanley. (3)
2008: David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Dan Hanneberry, Steven Motlop, Liam Shiels, Rory Sloane, Tom Rockliff, Ricky Henderson, Liam Picken, Luke Breust, Matthew Suckling. (11)
2009: Mitch Duncan, Taylor Duryea, Michael Barlow, Zach Tuohy (4)
2010: Luke Parker, Paul Seedsman, Luke Dalhaus, Jason Johanissen (4)
2011: Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale, Rory Laird, Mark Blicavs (4)
2012 : Jack Viney, Lachie Hunter (2)
2013: Matt Crouch, Zach Merrett, George Hewett, Riley Knight, Charlie Cameron (5)
2014: Jack Steele, Connor Blakely, Caleb Daniel, Kane Lambert, Conor McKenna (5)
2015: None (too early to tell?)
2016: Will Hayward, Brandan Parfitt. (2)
So every year there's a gun taken after 20, some years many.
OK, stuff it. Following players taken after pick 20 in the ten drafts prior to this. Have selected on basis that they play or have played as mids, and if they haven't yet played 200 games (the closer they get to this year, by definition the fewer games they can have played, so for those players I'm going on basis would they get a game in North's midfield):
2007:Scott Selwood,Jack Steven,Pearce Hanley. (3)
2008: David Zaharakis, Dayne Beams, Dan Hanneberry,Steven Motlop, Liam Shiels, Rory Sloane, Tom Rockliff, Ricky Henderson, Liam Picken,Luke Breust, Matthew Suckling.(11)
2009: Mitch Duncan,Taylor Duryea, Michael Barlow,Zach Tuohy (4)
2010: Luke Parker,Paul Seedsman, Luke Dalhaus,Jason Johanissen (4)
2011: Seb Ross, Elliot Yeo, Lachie Neale, Rory Laird, Mark Blicavs (4)
2012 :Jack Viney, Lachie Hunter (2)
2013: Matt Crouch, Zach Merrett,George Hewett,Riley Knight, Charlie Cameron (5)
2014: Jack Steele, Connor Blakely, Caleb Daniel, Kane Lambert,Conor McKenna (5)
2015: None (too early to tell?)
2016:Will Hayward, Brandan Parfitt. (2)
So every year there's a gun taken after 20, some years many.