Review 3rd Quarter fade outs

[acker]

Don't know if I'm barking up the wrong tree, but do the Dogs 3rd Quarters seem like they drop off many times during the season.
Can't put my finger on why but I'll float a few possible reasons

* Inside Mids get tired having to try to shark opposition rucks hit out advantage over us

* Physical Conditioning

* Bigger bodied players like the Bont harder to maintain stamina - he is Key Position size

* Libba needs help

They say the 3rd Quarter is the Premiership Quarter, that was the case on Saturday night, I think it's something the Dogs have to solve

My opinion it could be a bit of all the above points, I think many of the 3rd Q problems start in losing the Ruck hit outs and the Bont and Libba need help and possibly more game time forward of the ball during games so they stay fresh and shake tags

Perhaps if it can't get a ruckman in the draft, the Dogs could look at a project player as an International or Rookie like a 7 foot Basketball player like Mason Cox

46

Mason Cox

Age

33

Ht

211cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

F/R

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.7

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

1.2

4star

D

6.0

1star

K

3.0

1star

HB

3.0

2star

M

2.3

2star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.0

4star

D

9.0

3star

K

5.4

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.8

5star

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Dogs rarely set up defensively at the bounce from what I saw. Always mid or miss.

 

[BulldogMuscle]

It's funny because I use to consider our 3rd quarters to be our best from about 2015 to 2017, that has very much shifted over the past few years with this year being a clear stand out of terrible 3rd quarters.

 

[Golden_6]

It’s definitely not a fitness issue. We repeatedly ran over sides in the last quarter this year.

It’s purely structural IMO.

 

[acker]

It's funny because I use to consider our 3rd quarters to be our best from about 2015 to 2017, that has very much shifted over the past few years with this year being a clear stand out of terrible 3rd quarters.

I remember years ago Tim Watson saying at some stage the Bont will have to consider transitioning from a midfielder to a forward or back because of his size

 

[acker]

It’s definitely not a fitness issue. We repeatedly ran over sides in the last quarter this year.

It’s purely structural IMO.

That's late in the game, I think there maybe an issue why we are less explosive in the 3rd Quarter after the break

 

[BulldogMuscle]

I remember years ago Tim Watson saying at some stage the Bont will have to consider transitioning from a midfielder to a forward or back because of his size

Can't put down our third quarter fadeouts to the Bont alone this year, there's clearly something else at play, structure or psychological who knows, but if you go back and watch our 3rd quarters from 2016 to now you'll see the difference.

 

[acker]

Dogs rarely set up defensively at the bounce from what I saw. Always mid or miss.

It's been a bit like Libba or miss this year

 

[acker]

Dogs 3rd Quarters 2021
Home & Away - Won 8 Lost 13 Drew 1
Finals .......... - Won 1 Lost 2 Drew 1
Total 26 Games - Won 9 Lost 15 Drew 2

Dogs Won 18 Games and Lost 8 in Total so the Dogs only Won the 3 Quarter in half of those wins - I suggest there should be room for Bevo to improve that

W - Dogs 3.2.20 Pies 1.1.07
L - Dogs 3.2.20 Eagl 6.3.39
W - Kang 0.4.04 Dogs 6.4.40
L - Dogs 2.4.16 Lions 3.2.20
L - Dogs 2.5.17 Suns 6.1.37
L - GWS 2.3.15 Dogs 1.4.10
L - Tigs 5.2.32 Dogs 1.1.07
L - Dogs 4.2.26 Blue 4.4.28
W - Powr 1.3.09 Dogs 4.3.27
W - Dogs 5-3-33 Saint 1.1.07
L - Dogs 0.3.03 Dees 6.2.38
L - Freo 3.4.22 Dogs 2.2.14
BYE
W - Cats 3.4.22 Dogs 4.3.27
W - Eagl 3.2.20 Dogs 3.3.21
W - Dogs 4.2.26 Roos 2.2.14
L - Dogs 1.1.07 Swan 2.4.16
W - Suns 2.2.14 Dogs 3.1.19
L - Dees 5.2.32 Dogs 4.1.25
D - Dogs 1.2.08 Crow 1.2.08
L - Dogs 2.6.18 Dons 4.2.26
L - Hawk 4.1.25 Dogs 3.2.20
L - Dogs 4.0.24 Powr 5.2.32
FINALS
W - Dogs 3.2.20 Dons 0.3.03
L - Lions 3.3.21 Dogs 1.5.11
D - Powr 2.4.16 Dogs 2.4.16
L - Dees 7.2.44 Dogs 2.0.12

 

[_Mike_]

Wasn't a fade out because of fitness

- Bont was benched for a rest, should have been given a short spell on the forward line instead
- They win a clearance and goal
- No structural changes, should have put a player in a sweeper role
- kicked 2 more goals after center clearances - no change
- momentum was up - yet Bev again refused to adjust.
- steamrolled from there

 

[CarnTheScray]

We've had plenty of third quarter fade outs this year. Vs West Coast, Gold Coast, Richmond, Carlton for half the quarter, Freo and more. Some fade outs are not as big as others though.

I think it is more of a tactical, structural and mental issue. Tactically we don't change much over half time as evident Saturday night, so pretty much every team we've played changes their approach or ups their effort whilst we don't do anything.

I think structure ties in because when the opposition gets a little run going on because of this centre set up, our backline is not good enough to withstand a wave of attacks mainly due to our lack of a ruck to nullify the momentum, a KPD as well as genuine one on one players and players that lack pace. Dale is really the only one with very good pace out the back and he has really bad moments in high pressure games, we can't rely on him. This is where I see Khamis, Richards + a KPD filling a void. I think our defence is good enough to hold most teams, but the two teams it cannot hold are Richmond and Melbourne for the high pressure reasons above. KPD recruit desperately needed.

I think the 3rd quarter in high intensity games like big games at the MCG or a grand final is the most important quarter in the game. Winning this quarter gives you a boost of momentum leading into the final quarter, which is why they call it the premiership quarter. If you win it in a grand final you'll probably win the game. Plus when Melbourne scored however many goals in a row, our boys realised there's no comeback happening, plus they looked physically shot as well, their drop after being 19 points up came out of nowhere.

 

[acker]

Wasn't a fade out because of fitness

- Bont was benched for a rest, should have been given a short spell on the forward line instead
- They win a clearance and goal
- No structural changes, should have put a player in a sweeper role
- kicked 2 more goals after center clearances - no change
- momentum was up - yet Bev again refused to adjust.
- steamrolled from there

Dogs 3rd Quarter returns in 2021 is

9 Wins 15 Losses 2 Draws

Just because the team has fitness to finish off in the last quarter doesn't mean there isn't some kind of fitness issue why the team is dropping off in the 3rd Quarters

More to fitness than just stamina - Dogs won 18 matches in 2021 (including Finals) but only won 9 x 3rd Quarters - that's an ugly statistic

 

[BallaratBulldog]

What's the stat like for the last quarter?

 

[acker]

What's the stat like for the last quarter?

Last Quarter Dogs 2021

15 Wins 9 Losses 2 Draws

 

[grassman75]

We saw the writing on the wall in the last quarter of the second North game...while it wasnt as bad as the GF due to the lesser skill of the North boys, what happened than was a carbon copy of the GF.

The Dees put those 3 goals on so quickly i think the boys had already worked so hard to get back into it, that just broke them

 

[acker]

In comparison 2021

1st Quarters Dogs - Won 20 Lost 5 Drew 1
2nd Quarters Dogs - Won 17 Lost 7 Drew 2
3rd Quarters Dogs - Won 9 Lost 15 Drew 2
4th Quarters Dogs - Won 15 Lost 9 Drew 2

Dogs 3rd Quarters 2021
Home & Away - Won 8 Lost 13 Drew 1
Finals .......... - Won 1 Lost 2 Drew 1
Total 26 Games - Won 9 Lost 15 Drew 2

Dogs Won 18 Games and Lost 8 in Total so the Dogs only Won the 3 Quarter in half of those wins - I suggest there should be room for Bevo to improve that

W - Dogs 3.2.20 Pies 1.1.07
L - Dogs 3.2.20 Eagl 6.3.39
W - Kang 0.4.04 Dogs 6.4.40
L - Dogs 2.4.16 Lions 3.2.20
L - Dogs 2.5.17 Suns 6.1.37
L - GWS 2.3.15 Dogs 1.4.10
L - Tigs 5.2.32 Dogs 1.1.07
L - Dogs 4.2.26 Blue 4.4.28
W - Powr 1.3.09 Dogs 4.3.27
W - Dogs 5-3-33 Saint 1.1.07
L - Dogs 0.3.03 Dees 6.2.38
L - Freo 3.4.22 Dogs 2.2.14
BYE
W - Cats 3.4.22 Dogs 4.3.27
W - Eagl 3.2.20 Dogs 3.3.21
W - Dogs 4.2.26 Roos 2.2.14
L - Dogs 1.1.07 Swan 2.4.16
W - Suns 2.2.14 Dogs 3.1.19
L - Dees 5.2.32 Dogs 4.1.25
D - Dogs 1.2.08 Crow 1.2.08
L - Dogs 2.6.18 Dons 4.2.26
L - Hawk 4.1.25 Dogs 3.2.20
L - Dogs 4.0.24 Powr 5.2.32
FINALS
W - Dogs 3.2.20 Dons 0.3.03
L - Lions 3.3.21 Dogs 1.5.11
D - Powr 2.4.16 Dogs 2.4.16
L - Dees 7.2.44 Dogs 2.0.12

Last Quarter Dogs 2021

15 Wins 9 Losses 2 Draws

 

[wayniac]

I'll be controversial.

Are players drug tested after the game?

A friend of mine who barracks for Collingwood said that Adelaide were on a form of speed in '97 and '98.

With all the drugs in sport, who knows?

ASADA and WADA have been lagging behind for years. The bio-chemists aren't going to give up just because there are rules.

Just saying....

 

[acker]

I think AFL players get tested regularly nowadays

I'll be controversial.

Are players drug tested after the game?

A friend of mine who barracks for Collingwood said that Adelaide were on a form of speed in '97 and '98.

With all the drugs in sport, who knows?

ASADA and WADA have been lagging behind for years. The bio-chemists aren't going to give up just because there are rules.

Just saying....

 

[Here we go dogs]

Wasn't a fade out because of fitness

- Bont was benched for a rest, should have been given a short spell on the forward line instead
- They win a clearance and goal
- No structural changes, should have put a player in a sweeper role
- kicked 2 more goals after center clearances - no change
- momentum was up - yet Bev again refused to adjust.
- steamrolled from there

When happens so quickly in a game it would be difficult to get the messaging out from the coaches box. I think it’s partially player maturity and onfield leadership.

There should of been someone onfield telling Naughton to roll back for a centre bounce.

Bev must hate the following recent rule changes:
- No runner on the field during play
- 6-6-6 rule
- Third man up

 

[Anja_Nees]

I get the angst about the third quarter run on, but we were done by 70 points in the end. I think any shuffling would only have prolonged the inevitable.

The stats put up in the third quarter showed the third quarter is usually our worst but we come home strong. We’re also great in first quarters.

Hopefully next year we get to finals fit and in a strong position and don’t have the same exhausting run through. If there were any tactical mistakes or errors made by mids we have time to work those out in the off-season.

 

[wayniac]

I think AFL players get tested regularly nowadays

It's not a robust model.

How does the AFL’s illicit drug policy work?

Under the AFL’s illicit drugs policy, Melbourne’s Joel Smith would record a first strike, receive a suspended fine and counselling. But here’s what happens under the league’s anti-doping code.

www.theage.com.au

The AFL have always kept the player confidentiality model. Sure it protects players from mental health issues that may be a factor in illicit drug taking.

Lance Armstrong and his crew were masters of blood doping and EPO.

I don't think the AFL really want these fairy tale wins to be overturned, other wise they would have taken flags away from Carlton when they cheated on the salary cap.

We just had an NRL player busted for cocaine possession. He was obviously dobbed in but it helps to show the NRL are "tough" on drugs LOL.

Watched a 1984 pre-NRL game the other day between Wests and Canterbury. The players were tiny, athletic and highly skilled. Today they are monsters and the head injuries are huge due to the shift in momentum and accidental head clashes because players are so hard to stop, the technique of tackling has shifted more to the upper region of the body and the guys are way bigger in the hips.

I've never liked the premiership playoff model. If the Dogs loss is attributed to the attritional nature of reaching the final, we need longer breaks to ensure that the two finalists are in tip-top nick before the final.

The FA cup in England used to be the showpiece final, as was the RL Challenge cup. They were always played 4 weeks after the last round of the season. Generally these games were never one sided, as we saw on Saturday.

Another major problem I see is recovery after concussion. The observed protocol has no solid data to back it up. I would venture to say that the after effects last months, not a couple of weeks. English, Naughton, Weightman have been poor for weeks after they came back. It's hard to know how to measure overall impact, other than anecdotal, such as, poor positioning, fumbles, brain fog type stuff. Unfortunately this year we had more than our share of head injuries, so more research is needed in case it's a reason.

Only been knocked out twice, don't remember how I performed after that

 

[acker]

Poachers always have the element of surprise over Game Keepers and Robbers have the element of surprise over Police. But retrospective penalties placed on Essendon over the Peptides is a pretty big deterrent

As for players names not being published for failing a drug test until the 3rd Strike - I often wonder how many of those failed drug tests were for recreational drugs and is it appropriate to hang a young player out in the media and public forums to be crucified over that happening once or twice

Most players are between 18 - 32 they are not monks in a monastery, like the rest of us mere mortals some have vices

It's not a robust model.

How does the AFL’s illicit drug policy work?

Under the AFL’s illicit drugs policy, Melbourne’s Joel Smith would record a first strike, receive a suspended fine and counselling. But here’s what happens under the league’s anti-doping code.

www.theage.com.au

The AFL have always kept the player confidentiality model. Sure it protects players from mental health issues that may be a factor in illicit drug taking.

Lance Armstrong and his crew were masters of blood doping and EPO.

I don't think the AFL really want these fairy tale wins to be overturned, other wise they would have taken flags away from Carlton when they cheated on the salary cap.

We just had an NRL player busted for cocaine possession. He was obviously dobbed in but it helps to show the NRL are "tough" on drugs [/Quote

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

I have a theory that it's a microcosm of Bevo's general coaching style.

On a larger scale every season we have a player or two that move into new positions. A few don't work but the others completely turn their game around and begin to look like superstars. Then either later in that season or the season after we see those same players in the same role come down to earth and begin to look a bit more average. Think Naughton's forward, Richards forward, Lipinski on the wing, Vandermeer forward, Webb in the midfield, Bailey Dale

31

Bailey Dale

Age

27

Ht

188cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.6

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

1.6

4star

MG

117.4

2star

D

9.0

2star

K

5.1

2star

HB

3.9

3star

M

2.3

2star

T

1.7

3star

MG

117.4

2star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

3.0

3star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.0

4star

on the wing, Young in defence, etc. Not all, but some, and sometimes they bounce back before long like Naughton. I reckon that first season in a new position, or the first few months in a new position, because they are learning something new it's kept simple. Play here, listen to what this leader says, put in an effort. Then when they've proven they can play there the messaging becomes more complicated. You're going to run this exact pattern, this is when to make this certain decision or this one, we need you to play a defensive role without losing your offensive output. And the form drops off a bit.

On a smaller scale I think you can see it in games. They spend a week preparing for a certain way to play and being in certain roles. At quarter time and three quarter time the changes have to be kept simple just because there isn't enough time to explain mass changes. But at half time Bevo and the other coaches can start to get more complex and I think we overdo it. It's rarely ever positional changes but there would be roles and strategies that shift. You're opponent is doing this, so we're going to start doing this, but make sure we keep up doing this and this but not this, and so on. Maybe I'm talking bullshit but Bevo is known for being a coach that likes to come up with new ideas a lot. And maybe it was worse this year because we're clearly a better side this time than before, and we're a bit more experienced, so he's pushing a bit harder.

 

[Oliver G]

In 2021 we ranked 17th in the competition for scores in the first 10 minutes after HT. The attached table shows the average score in each quarter separated by 10-minute blocks...

 

[acker]

Impressive statistical chart Oliver, does it come in the other years back to 2014/15 as well?

In 2021 we ranked 17th in the competition for scores in the first 10 minutes after HT. The attached table shows the average score in each quarter separated by 10-minute blocks...

View attachment 1247358