Game Day AFL Preliminary Final - Geelong vs Sydney
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Geelong v Sydney
Last Saturday night, Sydney put Adelaide to the sword in the fashion one expected they would have started their finals campaign. Offering minor retribution for their qualifying finals loss against GWS, the Swans have bigger aspirations this week against Geelong. In their first meeting at the MCG since 1934, the first preliminary final looks set to offer a brilliant contest in what will serve up the first Grand Final contender in 2016.
When & Where?
Preliminary Final 1, 7:50 PM FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2016 at the MCG
Preliminary Final 1, 7:50 PM FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2016 at the MCG
This Friday night offers history in the most unexpected of places. Given the recent history of these two teams, one could be forgiven for thinking of them as old foes. After all, they have an impressive resume in September. Since 2004, Sydney and Geelong have played a combined 56 finals games, and it will be 59 by the end of the season. At an average of over 4.5 final games every year, and nine Grand Final appearances, perhaps the most surprising statistic is the fact they haven't played in a final since 2004.
Tonight makes it round 2 at the MCG. A 'home' game for Geelong but still a trip for both teams, this match is the first time these two have met there since World War II. Despite this, both teams play well at the ground, as perennial finalists would be expected. The first week of travel for the Swans, no large advantage is on offer for either side. With both teams capable of brilliant football, endeavour – and perhaps a touch of brilliance – will be the key to success.
How will it happen?
(and the big 3)
Geelong and Sydney make for an interesting match up. Both teams are similar in many respects, from their on-field structure to the way they attack the ball.
The Cats and Swans favour a traditional structure, relying on their dominant midfields to get the most important job done. Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, and Mitch Duncan share the workload for the Cats. For the Swans, Dan Hannebery, Josh Kennedy, and Luke Parker. Both midfields are exceptional; tough in close at stoppages, quick with hands, and damaging on the run. One difference between the two may be tagging.
In their last match against Hawthorn, Scott Selwood applied a hard tag on Hawk star Sam Mitchell, a role well suited to the ex-Eagle. Sydney however, are unlikely to adopt a similar approach on the Geelong stars, backing their superior pace and pressure at the contest. With only that the major difference, the midfield battle is a game of strengths.
Good at everything but great in individual areas, Sydney are the king in congestion. The best team in close, their tackling prowess and pressure are how they will overcome Geelong. For the Cats, their slick movement with the ball reveals their battle: withstand Sydney's pressure to win. If they can match their tackling and intensity around the ball, the Cats mid-fielders should prevail.
Of course once possession has been won, the ball must be delivered. Again a mirror of sorts, for Sydney Lance Franklin should stay closer to goal where he is at his damaging best. Geelong match up well on tall forwards, with Tom Lonergan the defender likely to get the role. Although easy to suggest the game will be won by the superior midfield on the night, the ability of the small forwards could be the largest factor. Sydney will look to Tom Papley and Ben McGlynn to ease the pressure on Franklin, and add to their goal tally this year. In the absence of McVeigh, youngster Isaac Heeney will need to fill the void, and his presence may extend into the midfield.
For Geelong, Hawkins will need to fire without assistance from Daniel Menzel, out with a groin. But as has been the case all year, the other two who must fire are Dangerfield and Selwood.
What will happen?
As of writing, the odds are:
Gaining a free pass into the preliminary final after beating Hawthorn, Geelong sit firm favourites. Given their poor performance against the Dogs and Sydney's resurgence against Adelaide, perhaps the Swans should be shorter.
Last time they met:
This time they meet:
This time they meet:
Despite there being multiple upsets this finals series, the evenness of the competition has allowed for teams as low as seventh to be real contenders. When the Cats meet the Swans at the 'G tonight, truly anything could happen. Jarrad McVeigh will be missed by the Swans, but both teams take a relatively healthy line-up into the match.
The best first quarter team in the league, would it be surprising if Sydney commanded a three or four goal lead at quarter time? The fastest finishing could see Geelong either stretch an already dominant lead, or make for a nail-biting finish in a close match.
This feels like the epitome of a 50/50 match. Played ten times, perhaps both teams share the spoils five time each. The Cats however, have had the extra week break. And whilst it is the first time the Swans travel in the finals, any edge would go to Geelong.
The winner tonight will go into the Grand Final as favourites. With the fewest losses of any side this year and only two against top 8 sides, I'm sticking with the Cats.
Geelong by 7 points.
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Quicker write-up this week because of work, hopefully no mistakes. Good luck tonight boys! Should be a great game.
- Banned
- #128
I know we won't change the setup now at this point of the year, but at times I've been thinking we would be better set up if Smith was dropped, Stanley No.1 ruck with Blicavs supporting him at times, then bring in a Cockatoo for more run in the side. Would give Blitz more of a role, while we get more run with Cocky in. Obviously won't happen now so let's hope Smith can have a big game tonight after his poor performance vs Swans last time!
- Sep 3, 2011
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Stanley had a couple of takeaways out of the ruck in that game which were sublime.
And Smith had some good intercept marks in defence - covering for our missing superstar swingman.
Henderson back means Smith is going to be patrolling our forward 50 at times. The team goes back to its preferred tactics that have worked well.
If Hendo was in against the Hawks - fit - we would have won by a lot more! He would have controlled Breust and swung forward to score when we needed that boost.
BlightysCats
Norm Smith Medallist
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- #130
I don't see us being able to score more than 12 goals max tonight and I reckon we'll really be implementing a Ross Lyon type defensive game plan designed for us to strangle Sydney and win with around 80 points, but I don't reckon we have a hope in hell of keeping Sydney to a low score tonight - My feeling is unfortunately that it'll end up roughly Geelong 11/12 goals to Sydney 14/15.
i can definitely feel one of those 'goal for goal' games with a fairly static margin, settled by whichever team makes the most of their 10-20 minutes of dominance. round 16, we had the ball in our half for most of the second quarter, but didnt make the most of it. like many others have said, i think our best chance is if we can keep it tight for the first half. controlled aggression is required early. put too much focus on 'hitting in hard', and we could be down by 3 or 4 very quickly. that kind of margin that quickly is the last thing we need tonight.
its tough being a supporter and pessimist... if we had the swans run in to this game and injury concerns, id think we have no chance. but looking at their run in, i cant help but think its somehow the best preparation possible. weird.
anyway, definitely expecting a very tight game, decided by a 15 minute or so period at some point in the game.
its tough being a supporter and pessimist... if we had the swans run in to this game and injury concerns, id think we have no chance. but looking at their run in, i cant help but think its somehow the best preparation possible. weird.
anyway, definitely expecting a very tight game, decided by a 15 minute or so period at some point in the game.
BlightysCats
Norm Smith Medallist
- Banned
- #132
We desperately need Cocky in tonight I can't believe the MC didn't go with him? We will really struggle to stop their outside run and to kick a winning score for mine.
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Three months ago... what on earth does it mean for tonight's game? Nothing.
Thanks for the reply oh dark lord. How goes the quest for the ring?
Jhye Clark 13
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Nope.
Art Vandelay_
TheBrownDog
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7:23 to go until the first bounce
Can you believe that it has been entrusted to a couple of hobbits!?!?
Hobbits! Ho ho ho!
They should be no match for my thousands of minions scouring the lands for them. I expect I shall have it back soon. Can't see them simply walking into Mordor, and I'm a giant eye.
Because cocky has looked completely lost in games this year. He's not ready, and would be a liability.
rocker_oz33
TheBrownDog
Most def worried about tonight's game.
If we play well and stay with them early we're in the hunt,fresh legs could come in handy late in the game.
MEZ is a loss means nick smith moves to someone else.
If we play well and stay with them early we're in the hunt,fresh legs could come in handy late in the game.
MEZ is a loss means nick smith moves to someone else.
Stan The Caddy
Norm Smith Medallist
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I'm not nervous at all. We've got this. Seriously.
dazbroncos
Max Rooke Appreciation Society
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- #142
More than happy to be the BP of this finals series....
The Quiet Achievers....
GO Catters
I'm so nervous that my nerves have suffered a nervous breakdown.
I hope your right mate I really do.
BlightysCats
Norm Smith Medallist
- Banned
- #145
Not far off the same stats as Menzel, hardly a liability.
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/...2=10&type=A&pid1=3330&pid2=4045&fid1=S&fid2=S
I'm on your wave length there.
We will be looking for goals from our bigs as well as Tommy. Smith and Stanley will be used forward at times and it won't surprise me if Hendo or Harry drift forward occasionally as well.
How hot is the middle going to be ? It's going to be a war zone to be honest but if we can minimise the contested differential we are a huge chance.
I do worry about Hendos touch after missing a lot of footy and Bews is a risk - Ruggles very stiff IMO.
However we are in pretty good shape and as long as we're within 3 goals or better at 1/2 time we're a massive chance
Very toey - have the tickets / air fares and accommodation all on hold..................
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We all saw last weekend. Sydney, with a point to prove, came out and smashed the Crows in that first quarter. We can't allow them to kick six or seven in the first quarter tonight. We have at times been half asleep in the first stanza so I'm hoping everyone at the club is focused on hitting the ground running and getting right in Sydney's face right from the start. If we are in the game late we win this. A burst will eventually come and how or if we can ride out the burst will determine the outcome of this match.
What a blow for Menzel though..it's up to the rest of the boys to dig deep and give him his shot. As daz always says
GO CATTERS.
What a blow for Menzel though..it's up to the rest of the boys to dig deep and give him his shot. As daz always says
GO CATTERS.
catempire
Premium Platinum
In 2007 I would have been shitting myself about now. Three flags later and I'm all about #enjoytheride. What happens, happens. We will make a good fist of it.
dazbroncos
Max Rooke Appreciation Society
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- #149
Id say every player late in Sept is sore - week off or no week off.
The difference is Sydney is playing 2 players that have been injured and recovered very quickly.
Sematics - maybe... but im always up to some antics.....
Go Catters
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
Big difference is that Cocky has kicked just 3 goals against top 8 sides this year.
Indicates that he has more of an impact against weaker opposition at this early point of his development.
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