Opinion Can Dustin Martin be the GOAT? (Answer: no)

[iameviljez]

Does it ever strike you as odd that Geelong have had over 1/3rd of the 5+ times AA selected players this century? I mean they have been the strongest team in home and away footy and had some great players, but not to that extent. It is an 18 team comp. 1 team has 35% of the 5+ times AA selected players, 17 teams share 65%. That is abnormal. And why it is that way is perfectly exemplified by T Stewart this year and last year. Where a Cats player is anywhere near the margin for being selected, he gets selected.

Eh, I don't see any reason why the AA committee would be biased for Geelong.

And it does make some sense, because we had such a long continuous time at the top with roughly the same player group.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And they are objective, measurable stats. Who's to know if CD come up with some bizarre process for assigning quality of X, Y or Z based on the team played or whether it's Tuesday or whatever else - they are not definitively objective because we don't know what they are.

We can both see the stats in the examples I have shown. Neither of us can know what goes into the CD ranking.

These are CD's top 20 rated players this season in terms of average rating per game. It is credible. Perfect? No, of course not. Better than a selected range of statistics a player has done well in? I would bet on it.

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

What?

Lol.

Edit. No surprise you got a like from the most illogical poster in this forum, Fudge. But Hawthorn won 3 norm smiths not long ago.

Sorry, I thought you meant 'Norm Smith medals won by the same player 3 times in 4 years'

 

[Corn Cobbers]

These are CD's top 20 rated players this season in terms of average rating per game. It is credible. Perfect? No, of course not. Better than a selected range of statistics a player has done well in? I would bet on it.

View attachment 1791299

So Dusty is not in the top 20, as per his absence in the AA team, is that the point here?

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

Does it ever strike you as odd that Geelong have had over 1/3rd of the 5+ times AA selected players this century? I mean they have been the strongest team in home and away footy and had some great players, but not to that extent. It is an 18 team comp. 1 team has 35% of the 5+ times AA selected players, 17 teams share 65%. That is abnormal. And why it is that way is perfectly exemplified by T Stewart this year and last year. Where a Cats player is anywhere near the margin for being selected, he gets selected.

If you put our parochial differences aside, it cannot make any sense that Stewart, a quality specialist in one position, gets 5 AA selections in 7 seasons and Dustin Martin(who has proven elite by every possible measure we can locate in 2 separate positions) gets 4 AA selections in 14 seasons.

These are the objective(though no doubt flawed in their own way) player rankings of Tom Stewart in each of his AA seasons;

2018 - 250+
2019 - 450+
2021 - 100+
2022 - 35ish
2023 - 80ish

I can't be bothered going through all the years to see where he sat amongst defenders, but suffice to say he wasn't in Champion Data's AA team this season. They have rated him in the top 100 players in the AFL twice and he has 5 AA's, one where CD ranked him outside the top 450 in the AFL.

As I said in an earlier post, if they are going to pick a positional team, then it should be against pre-defined positions and the best performing players in those positions should be selected. If AA selectors are going to shoe-horn players into positions because they think they are better players, then they should just be selecting the best and most valuable 22 or 25 players or whatever number each season.

Tom Stewart is a terrific player. But 5 AA's in those 7 seasons he has played tells us very clearly this process has no credibility in determining who the best players are.

No, it doesn't strike me as odd given Geelong have had teams in the top 4 for a chunk of the 21st century and top 8 for almost all of it.

Geelong have been better than every other team in that period. Hawthorn have won as many flags, but their intervening periods have been low. Richmond won 3 flags, but they've also taken their fair share of cellar-dwelling seasons

 

[blaisee]

Today is the day 6 years ago to the day that dusty signed his contract .

It was the day he knocked back an extra $2 m to stay loyal to his mates

Basically the opposite of what gaj did

That’s another reason why he is the goat

 

[PhatBoy]

All your 5+ AA selected players seem to me to prove we cannot quote AA selections as any authority on how good a player actually is.

I can't seem to find a comprehensive list of all time AA selections from most to least.

But let's do this and see how it compares to your earlier tally of wins per team. Geelong's AA dominance started in 2007. So that is the period I am questioning, 2007 onwards....

So let's look at Geelong v their two main rivals in that period Hawthorn and Richmond, and also v a club with whom the Cats share less rivalry, Eagles.


Home and away records for each team since 2007 and their AA selection records:

1. Geelong(4 FLAGS): 273 wins(including counting draws as half a win.) AFL average is 165. Geelong 165% of average AFL wins in this period. Geelong players were selected 58 times in the AA team from 2007. 3.4 per season on average. AFL average is roughly 1.25 players per team selected per season. Once you remove Geelong's selections the other teams are between them averaging 1.1 selections per season. Geelong are over 3 x AFL average in this period for AA selections.

24 individual players named: Scarlett, Johnson, Corey, Ling, Egan, Bartel, Milburn, Mooney, Ablett Jnr, Enright, Harley, Chapman, Selwood, Taylor, J. Kelly, Hawkins, Mackie, Dangerfield, Stewart, T. Kelly, Guthrie, Blicavs, Cameron, Stengle. 5 captains. 3 vice-captains. These do not include Ablett named captain twice while at Suns.

2. Hawthorn(4 FLAGS): 220 wins. Hawks are 119% of average AFL wins in this period. 23 times a Hawthorn player was selected in the AA team. 1.35 per season. This is barely above AFL average.

12 individual players named: Campbell Brown, Hodge, Franklin, Mitchell, Birchall, Rioli, Roughead, Lewis, Breust, Gibson, Gunston, Sicily. 1 Captain no vice-captains.

3. Richmond(3 flags): 191.5 wins. Tigers 104% of AFL average wins. 20 times a Richmond player was selected in the AA team. 1.18 per year. This is below AFL average.

10 individual players named: Richardson, Riewoldt, Cotchin, Deledio, Rance, Martin, Edwards, Houli, Grimes, Bolton. 10 individual players named. 1 Captain, no Vice-Captains.

4. West Coast Eagles(1 flag): 185.5 wins. Eagles are 100% average AFL wins in this period. 30 times an Eagles player was named in the AA team. 1.76 players per season.

15 individual players named: Cox, Glass, Kerr, Lecras, Waters, Naitanui, Priddis, Kennedy, Gaff, McGovern, Yeo, Hurn, Darling, Sheppard, Ryan 1 Captain 3 Vice-Captains.

So Eagles and Cats combine for 458 home and away wins, 5 flags, and get players picked a combined 88 times in the last 17 seasons.

The Cats main rivals, Hawks and Tigers combine for 411 home and away wins, 7 flags, and get players picked a combined 43 times in the last 17 seasons.

Eagles and Cats combined got 39 separate players selected. Hawks and Tigers got 22. It is so far out of kilter it isn't funny.

It is definitely not a matter of the Cats relying on their superstars more, they have had the most non-star players selected by a mile.

Answer is obvious. We won so many games because we had so many All Australians. Deal with it.

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

These are CD's top 20 rated players this season in terms of average rating per game. It is credible. Perfect? No, of course not. Better than a selected range of statistics a player has done well in? I would bet on it.

View attachment 1791299

I guess we can all be glad they moved away from the "Put a midfielder in every position of the AA Squad" era then, can't we?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Eh, I don't see any reason why the AA committee would be biased for Geelong.

And it does make some sense, because we had such a long continuous time at the top with roughly the same player group.

In your Premiership years in that sampleGeelong averages 5.5 AA selections. Hawthorn averages 2.5 selections in its Premiership years. Richmond averages 1.7.

Geelong are radically over-represented in AA selections from 2007 onwards even allowing for the fact they are clearly the best performed h&a team.

 

[STPer18]

In your Premiership years in that sampleGeelong averages 5.5 AA selections. Hawthorn averages 2.5 selections in its Premiership years. Richmond averages 1.7.

Geelong are radically over-represented in AA selections from 2007 onwards even allowing for the fact they are clearly the best performed h&a team.

Not all premiership teams are equal. We're just that good I guess.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I guess we can all be glad they moved away from the "Put a midfielder in every position of the AA Squad" era then, can't we?

I have already posted about that.

If you are going to select it by position then pre-define the positions and pick the best performed players for each position(they are clearly not doing this with 1 KPD and 3 KPF and no second ruck, 3 hybrid defenders when only 2 are needed..)

Otherwise, pick the 22 or however many most valuable players in the competition.

Or better yet. Do both. 22 best players. And 22 best in pre-defined positions.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not all premiership teams are equal. We're just that good I guess.

Clearly.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So Dusty is not in the top 20, as per his absence in the AA team, is that the point here?

Absolutely he isn't. But he is the 2nd highest rated general forward where Stewart is the 6th highest rated general defender. Guess who got picked in the AA team?

 

[PhatBoy]

Today is the day 6 years ago to the day that dusty signed his contract .

It was the day he knocked back an extra $2 m to stay loyal to his mates

Basically the opposite of what gaj did

That’s another reason why he is the goat

More likely he probably knew he’d have you going on a fatal hunger strike if he didn’t you sad git.

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

In your Premiership years in that sampleGeelong averages 5.5 AA selections. Hawthorn averages 2.5 selections in its Premiership years. Richmond averages 1.7.

Geelong are radically over-represented in AA selections from 2007 onwards even allowing for the fact they are clearly the best performed h&a team.

Hawthorn played mediocre interstate clubs for most of its flags (except Geelong). Fremantle, Sydney and West Coast
Richmond played mediocre interstate clubs for most of its flags (and an ageing Geelong). The Powerstances and a flaccid GWS

Not including last year's flag, Geelong won most of its flags against strong teams (Sydney were lucky to make it and not in any way a strong team) and set a record against the other opponent that set the club back a decade.

Remember when Collingwood only lost 3 games in 2011? All to Geelong who were "too old and too slow". They even overcame Meatloaf performing at half time to win that one.
Remember when St Kilda were the absolute best teams of 2009 and Geelong got them.

Thankfully the comp returned to full strength in 2022

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

Absolutely he isn't. But he is the 2nd highest rated general forward where Stewart is the 6th highest rated general defender. Guess who got picked in the AA team?

Tom Stewart, the league's second best intercept defender

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Tom Stewart, the league's second best intercept defender

Dustin Martin the AFL's best 1 v 1 offensive contest winner.

Every season.

By miles.

 

[TheCatStevensExperience]

Dustin Martin the AFL's best 1 v 1 offensive contest winner.

Every season.

By miles.

Every season. Hrmm....yet not in the top 20 players in the league this year?

Weird. Must be some stat they're not tracking.

 

[blaisee]

Every season. Hrmm....yet not in the top 20 players in the league this year?

Weird. Must be some stat they're not tracking.

Yep the you play for Geelong you get gifted 5 aa jumpers stat

 

[PhatBoy]

Yep the you play for Geelong you get gifted 5 aa jumpers stat

The fact that it tears you up so much makes me happier than any flag we’ve ever won I think.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Every season. Hrmm....yet not in the top 20 players in the league this year?

Weird. Must be some stat they're not tracking.

If you were picking a team of 22 players to win this years Grand Final, you would be picking Curnow, Greene, Martin, Bolton as 4 of your 7 forwards before even thinking about anyone else. Probably Taylor Walker as well. Then a second ruckman who can play forward. And then someone else, possibly a spillover mid who is a proven forward like Petracca. There are not better players to fill those positions, they don't exist.

 

[Fadge]

If you were picking a team of 22 players to win this years Grand Final, you would be picking Curnow, Greene, Martin, Bolton as 4 of your 7 forwards before even thinking about anyone else. Probably Taylor Walker as well. Then a second ruckman who can play forward. And then someone else, possibly a spillover mid who is a proven forward like Petracca. There are not better players to fill those positions, they don't exist.

I love how the basis of these guys' arguments are telling us what we think...

 

[PhatBoy]

If you were picking a team of 22 players to win this years Grand Final, you would be picking Curnow, Greene, Martin, Bolton as 4 of your 7 forwards before even thinking about anyone else. Probably Taylor Walker as well. Then a second ruckman who can play forward. And then someone else, possibly a spillover mid who is a proven forward like Petracca. There are not better players to fill those positions, they don't exist.

This is genuine bullshit of the highest order if you believe a majority think this.
Absolutely there are seasons where Martin wasn’t being universally lauded for this or that, where I would ‘Chuck him in if my life depended on it.’

There is no way known I would be compelled to do that now.

 

[Roby]

1988

Are you really a Hawthorn supporter or just another nuffie Tiger in disguise?

Oh you got me. What will I do now? I meant 1989. Doesn't change the get Dusty 3 Norm Smiths in four years. Your club? Never.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

Oh you got me. What will I do now? I meant 1989. Doesn't change the get Dusty 3 Norm Smiths in four years. Your club? Never.

Ok Tiger