Can Hawthorn succeed while ignoring the elite end of the draft?

Sixpence

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Seen that movie 1917 ?

Every couple of days some bastard blows a whistle and all the hawkers jump over the top and charge as far towards the enemy as they can before getting mown down and running back to their trench

Then in a couple of days

Some bastard blows another whistle
Bad analogy. It suggests that there's someone in here with the ability to knock us down.
 
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Furn2

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Fairly accurate..so not many right now who are A or A plus? Either they were, might be or could be , so that is my concern, just how good will the midfield be this year.
By were do you mean in 2019 ? because that's also in the past.

Regardless, Worpel was A grade by every objective measure in 2019 and Mitchell was in the last 2 years he played.
 

4THAWN

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Fairly accurate..so not many right now who are A or A plus? Either they were, might be or could be , so that is my concern, just how good will the midfield be this year.
I think the ceiling is high

You've got Arguably a top 3/5 wing division in the comp with Hendo/Smith/Scully

Mitchell, O'Meara, Worpel, Wingard and Shiels is a pretty solid top 5 "inside" midfielders. I definitely agree that there is a steep decline following the top 5, and we would love for one or more of Cousins/Howe/Maginness to step up and consolidate themselves as a supporting midfielder in the team. There are high hopes for Finn, and I myself think Cousins has the capacity to build himself into a neat midfielder in the coming years. Howe I cannot vouch for as solidly as a midfielder just yet, although I know others who think he can play a valuable defensive midfield role.
 

Captain chaos

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By were do you mean in 2019 ? because that's also in the past.

Regardless, Worpel was A grade by every objective measure in 2019 and Mitchell was in the last 2 years he played.
I will be staggered if Mitchells returns to anything like that anytime soon and i am not sure what measures you are using for worpell? Winning a b and f in a struggling mid range team is no big deal-no doubt you wlll quote me stats. Even allowing for your argument, it still doesn't stack up against the best midfields-not even close.
 

Scotland

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I think the ceiling is high

You've got Arguably a top 3/5 wing division in the comp with Hendo/Smith/Scully

Mitchell, O'Meara, Worpel, Wingard and Shiels is a pretty solid top 5 "inside" midfielders.
That's not a terrible group of players but the wings in particular are two guys turning 32 and a guy that is turning 29 and missed a year with a broken ankle. I would have thought those guys are as good as they are going to get. When people talk ceiling they generally mean how good a player or group can be, and that is typically a function of age. A core mid group that is 32-32-29-27-26-21-27-29 should be performing.

O'Meara is 26 and 3 seasons into his new club. 2017 was basically a write off but he has been consistent for two years since. Wingard is a historically pretty average inside mid. He has plenty of talent but his best footy was as a forward/mid. Shiels is a dime a dozen mid. Good tagger who can find a bit of the ball himself, but no team would fear him head to head.
 

BJK#5

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That's not a terrible group of players but the wings in particular are two guys turning 32 and a guy that is turning 29 and missed a year with a broken ankle. I would have thought those guys are as good as they are going to get. When people talk ceiling they generally mean how good a player or group can be, and that is typically a function of age. A core mid group that is 32-32-29-27-26-21-27-29 should be performing.

O'Meara is 26 and 3 seasons into his new club. 2017 was basically a write off but he has been consistent for two years since. Wingard is a historically pretty average inside mid. He has plenty of talent but his best footy was as a forward/mid. Shiels is a dime a dozen mid. Good tagger who can find a bit of the ball himself, but no team would fear him head to head.
I agree with a lot of what you said but we are yet to see this group together and what the ceiling is. Mitchell at his best was before the Worpel emergence and the addition of Wingard. O'meara last year had to carry a significant load on his own (before Worpel really broke out) and had no Mitchell. Scully can perhaps get back to his 2016 form with a more competitive inside midfield group.

If they all stay on the park you can make a case that they can all improve due to more help. Mitchell becomes more damaging with help around him. O'meara is allowed to carry less of an inside load and can use his speed to break away from contests. Wingard can play more outside and use his skills etc.
 

Scotland

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^ some good points some questionable. Worpel probably doesn't have the season he has in 2019 if Mitchell is there. We see similar with Dom Sheed who was out of the side for a bit because he didn't fit then came back in and crushed it in the 2018 finals. Too many similar players doesn't always gel. Impossible to have Mitchell getting 2018 clearance numbers and Worpel/O'Meara matching their 2019 numbers. There just aren't enough contests in a game of footy, so someone will need to adapt to a varied role.

Wingard absolutely benefits from being an icing player. I would take a 40 goal season from Wingard getting 15-20 touches a game over playing him permanently in the middle if he played for my team.
 

4THAWN

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That's not a terrible group of players but the wings in particular are two guys turning 32 and a guy that is turning 29 and missed a year with a broken ankle. I would have thought those guys are as good as they are going to get. When people talk ceiling they generally mean how good a player or group can be, and that is typically a function of age. A core mid group that is 32-32-29-27-26-21-27-29 should be performing.

O'Meara is 26 and 3 seasons into his new club. 2017 was basically a write off but he has been consistent for two years since. Wingard is a historically pretty average inside mid. He has plenty of talent but his best footy was as a forward/mid. Shiels is a dime a dozen mid. Good tagger who can find a bit of the ball himself, but no team would fear him head to head.
I was replying to talk about how the midfield would be in 2020. Therefore ceiling is referring to the 2020 ceiling.
 

BJK#5

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^ some good points some questionable. Worpel probably doesn't have the season he has in 2019 if Mitchell is there. We see similar with Dom Sheed who was out of the side for a bit because he didn't fit then came back in and crushed it in the 2018 finals. Too many similar players doesn't always gel. Impossible to have Mitchell getting 2018 clearance numbers and Worpel/O'Meara matching their 2019 numbers. There just aren't enough contests in a game of footy, so someone will need to adapt to a varied role.

Wingard absolutely benefits from being an icing player. I would take a 40 goal season from Wingard getting 15-20 touches a game over playing him permanently in the middle if he played for my team.
Oh yeah no doubt but that goes back to my ceiling argument, if they gel we may see personal numbers go down but impact on playing winning football go up.

On Wingard it depends on where he will play his best football. If i could have him as a lock to be a 20 disposal 2 goal a game type player it would be no question you leave him forward. I think he has shown better football playing in the midfield and resting forward over the past few years though. I was a huge fan of what i saw in the last month of the season playing in the midfield. Keeps him involved in the game more and loved his defensive efforts as well.
 

4THAWN

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O'Meara is 26 and 3 seasons into his new club. 2017 was basically a write off but he has been consistent for two years since. Wingard is a historically pretty average inside mid. He has plenty of talent but his best footy was as a forward/mid. Shiels is a dime a dozen mid. Good tagger who can find a bit of the ball himself, but no team would fear him head to head.
Correct about O'Meara, one would hope he's got improvement left and can become a more damaging player in the future.

Wingard maybe historically was an average midfielder, but if you watched his finish to 2019 you'd know he's definitely capable of being a B+/A grade midfielder.

Shiels is no standout player but his best is damaging and he had a career best year in 2019 stats wise.
 

Furn2

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I will be staggered if Mitchells returns to anything like that anytime soon and i am not sure what measures you are using for worpell? Winning a b and f in a struggling mid range team is no big deal-no doubt you wlll quote me stats. Even allowing for your argument, it still doesn't stack up against the best midfields-not even close.
Well Worpel was top 50 in AFL ratings, Supercoach, Dreamteam, the Brownlow, Coaches votes etc and won the B&F in a 9th place team. Assuming top 50 in the league is A-grade he's in it.

Anyway.

In 2019 we clearly didn't stack up. No one is arguing that. The question is whether, if everything or at least lot goes right we can contend. You can make a pretty good argument Wingard, O'Meara, Scully, and Worpell can have better seasons that 2019 and Mitchell only has to do better than a Cousins to improve the side.

Of course, there's no guarantee any of that happens, but if the discussion is the possibility of success specifically premiership success then you need to assume that a lot goes right because no one wins flags when things go wrong.
 

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Gavin Excell

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Well Worpel was top 50 in AFL ratings, Supercoach, Dreamteam, the Brownlow, Coaches votes etc and won the B&F in a 9th place team. Assuming top 50 in the league is A-grade he's in it.

Anyway.

In 2019 we clearly didn't stack up. No one is arguing that. The question is whether, if everything or at least lot goes right we can contend. You can make a pretty good argument Wingard, O'Meara, Scully, and Worpell can have better seasons that 2019 and Mitchell only has to do better than a Cousins to improve the side.

Of course, there's no guarantee any of that happens, but if the discussion is the possibility of success specifically premiership success then you need to assume that a lot goes right because no one wins flags when things go wrong.
That last statement usually true but v good teams (such as yours 2015 and tigers last year) proved that misfortune can be overcome
 

Gralin

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That last statement usually true but v good teams (such as yours 2015 and tigers last year) proved that misfortune can be overcome
Every premiership side overcomes injuries and issues to win.
There is a tipping point though and it's not the same for every club.
When you have injuries can be as important as who gets injured as well. Timing is big, having the best team on the park come September goes a long way.
 

Gavin Excell

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Every premiership side overcomes injuries and issues to win.
There is a tipping point though and it's not the same for every club.
When you have injuries can be as important as who gets injured as well. Timing is big, having the best team on the park come September goes a long way.
Agree with all that

Not great teams however need everything to go right
 

Gralin

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Agree with all that

Not great teams however need everything to go right
We had a worse run with injuries in 2014 and didn't really miss a beat. That was the year that Mitchell, Gibson, Rioli, Lake and Stratton all missed chunks of the season and Clarko missed 5 games himself.

People remember 2015 because it was the old champ picking itself up off the canvas a few times for one more shot at glory but what the club did in 2014 was pretty special.

I agree when you can do that you're a fair way in front of most teams but there is still a tipping point.
 

Gavin Excell

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We had a worse run with injuries in 2014 and didn't really miss a beat. That was the year that Mitchell, Gibson, Rioli, Lake and Stratton all missed chunks of the season and Clarko missed 5 games himself.

People remember 2015 because it was the old champ picking itself up off the canvas a few times for one more shot at glory but what the club did in 2014 was pretty special.

I agree when you can do that you're a fair way in front of most teams but there is still a tipping point.
Hawthorn that era was a fair bit better than this current team
 

Gralin

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Hawthorn that era was a fair bit better than this current team
No doubt. But a lot of people didn't think that much of that team from 2009-2012

2008 looked like it could be the start of something special and it was just not for most of the played involved in 2008.

Things can turn around pretty quickly these days and Clarko has a pretty good system for getting the best out of his players.

I think we are in the need more to go right than wrong camp this time but that doesn't mean we can't Jag one.
 

matey

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Can see the Hawks core midfield, running group of Mitchell/Worpel/JOM/Wingard/Shiels/Smith/Scully/Hendo, plus a bunch of others that can pinch hit in the middle and other younger players that will eventually come in to grab the baton mix it with the best this year and in the long term.

Most of the opposition supporters on here liken elite end draft picks to a bbq steak while Clarko is a master in slow cooking a beef brisket on a bbq stick burner. When Clarko gives up coaching he will take on Magnus Carlsen!
 
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Scotland

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No doubt. But a lot of people didn't think that much of that team from 2009-2012

2008 looked like it could be the start of something special and it was just not for most of the played involved in 2008.
I don't think that's strictly true. Young team with premiership hangover but finals 3 out of 4 years. And were minor premiers and leading the GF with 10 minutes to go in 2012...

2011 was one of the most ridiculous seasons I can remember. We won 17 games and finished 4th. Hawthorn won 18 and finished 3rd. I'm pretty comfortable there was a decent gap from 4th to 3rd, but then the was a bigger gap to the top 2. 18-4 144% would've won the minor premiership any year from 2014-2019. Even 17 games is enough most years.

Hawthorn's biggest problem from 2009-2012 was that Trent Croad retired at 28 (broken foot?) and they didn't have a decent full back. They tried a mixture of players who were either undersized and/or not very good. Insert Lake and it was immediately a better structure.
 

Simon_Nesbit

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I don't think that's strictly true. Young team with premiership hangover but finals 3 out of 4 years. And were minor premiers and leading the GF with 10 minutes to go in 2012...

2011 was one of the most ridiculous seasons I can remember. We won 17 games and finished 4th. Hawthorn won 18 and finished 3rd. I'm pretty comfortable there was a decent gap from 4th to 3rd, but then the was a bigger gap to the top 2. 18-4 144% would've won the minor premiership any year from 2014-2019. Even 17 games is enough most years.

Hawthorn's biggest problem from 2009-2012 was that Trent Croad retired at 28 (broken foot?) and they didn't have a decent full back. They tried a mixture of players who were either undersized and/or not very good. Insert Lake and it was immediately a better structure.
Good post, but I don't think it would have been as bad if the bolded was true. If Croad retired after the 2008 GF, I doubt the club would have taken 3 years to get another FB.

If Croad had retired after the injury, I think the club would have sought a replacement sooner. Instead, there was three trade periods (2008, 2009, 2010) of expectation Croad would be coming back before he finally gave it away, and we obtained Lake in the next trade period.

That said, without the 2011 (PF) and 2012 (GF) agony, I don't think the players would have been as hungry to double/triple up in 14/15. A 2012 win could have been enough and we would have missed out on something truly special.
 

tommyk72

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Good post, but I don't think it would have been as bad if the bolded was true. If Croad retired after the 2008 GF, I doubt the club would have taken 3 years to get another FB.

If Croad had retired after the injury, I think the club would have sought a replacement sooner. Instead, there was three trade periods (2008, 2009, 2010) of expectation Croad would be coming back before he finally gave it away, and we obtained Lake in the next trade period.

That said, without the 2011 (PF) and 2012 (GF) agony, I don't think the players would have been as hungry to double/triple up in 14/15. A 2012 win could have been enough and we would have missed out on something truly special.
That being said, we still don’t have a Cyril replacement after his earl retirement...
 

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