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Opinion Changes for Round 2 vs The Blues

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Anyone got any injury news from last night they’d be willing to sum up, I’ve had a search can’t find anything
 

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The suggestion that Hunter can’t cover the ground is hilarious. That is literally the only reason he gets a game.
I will go out on a limb and say that it isn't that he can't cover the ground. It's that he can't do it at any sort of speed. That's the main reason he stops and props all the time as he knows he is a strong chance at being run down because he isn't zippy.
Kills our forward momentum when he props and holds up play and he does it quite often. Am hoping Jonesy comes on as a dashing winger with dare.
 
The Demons cut us to pieces on turnover - we need to work on this area of our game. We gave the ball up too easily and had no structure behind the ball allowing them to transition the ball fluently into attack.

Tommy Libb was lost on all but looked better as a high half forward and think his ball use and goal sense will help us in this area.

I think we just need to get games into Flea, VDM, JUH so i’d be playing all 3 regularly, even if we cop some ordinary performances from them.

Out: Cordy, Hunter,
In: JUH, JJ (if fit)
 
Out : Cordy & VDM
In : Tob & JJ
Cordy is a battler he gives it his best but Oppo defenders ignore him as he isn't at all dangerous not a good contested mark and not athletic enough to get separation. VDM love his pace but was far too fumbly and didn't use it well enough.
Schache on thin ice but gets a second chance. He needs to be given a specific role and let him develop. Have to work with what you have not what you want him to be.
 
Ignoring subs, upon further reflection I am going for:

IN: Jason Johannisen, Taylor Duryea, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Tim O'Brien
OUT: Roarke Smith, Laitham Vandermeer, Ryan Gardner, Zaine Cordy

Feel this leaves us with a better balance, and less players who lack natural footy IQ. Don't necessarily lose much in terms of athleticism either, the main strength of a couple of those omissions. Schache to be the swingman, backing him in to improve in all roles in the coming week. Sub probably out of Vandermeer or Gardner. Always feel much safer having a tall as sub in case Naughton, Keath or English go down and then we are not as screwed, so probably leaning toward Gardner. Vandermeer would be a good injection of pace should it be required, but again feel the tall sub is more critical. Would love to see McNeil, West, Garcia and Jones press a strong case in the VFL praccy matches, as they all could crack that 22, probably at the expense of Hannan.

FB: Bailey Williams, Alex Keath, Ed Richards
HB: Bailey Dale, Tim O'Brien, Caleb Daniel
C: Bailey Smith, Josh Dunkley, Adam Treloar
HF: Jason Johannisen, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, Mitch Hannan
FF: Tom Liberatore, Aaron Naughton, Cody Weightman
FOL: Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae
INT: Taylor Duryea, Josh Schache, Hayden Crozier, Lachie Hunter
EMG: (1 sub): Ryan Gardner, Jordon Sweet, Roarke Smith, Laitham Vandermeer

Injured: Sam Darcy, Toby McLean, Josh Bruce

VFL: Stefan Martin, Mitch Wallis, Zaine Cordy, Anthony Scott, Lachlan McNeil, Rhylee West, Riley Garcia, Louis Butler, Buku Khamis, Dominic Bedendo, Robbie McComb, Charlie Parker, Cody Raak, Arthur Jones, Luke Cleary
 
With Crozier back in the side and looking like he's playing decently, I'm OK to go in with just Keath and TOB as the talls. Croz should be able to support in the air.

I'd shift Daniel up the ground for the benefit of the team at a cost to his own individual output.

I'd stick with Schache to play as 3rd tall/relief ruck (swing back if required) for a few more weeks, hoping he can get his confidence up. Still think on paper he's Naughton's best partner up forward. Happy to persist a bit longer.

In: JJ, Duryea, JUH, TOB
Out: Gardner, Libba, Hannan, Cordy

Backs: Keath, TOB, Crozier, Williams, Duryea, Richards, Dale
Mids: English, Bont, Dunkley, Macrae, Smith, Roarke, Hunter, Treloar
Fowards: Naughton, VDM, JUH, Schache, JJ, Weightman, Daniel
 
In: Sweet / Martin, Duryea, JJ, TOB, Jamarra

Out: Smith, VDM, Cordy, Schache, Random (feel like an injury or something will pop up)
 
I don't think gardner should be dropped. He didn't play in any of the practice matches, and really looked short of a run.

Keath looked the same and also barely played a half in a practice match.

Hopefully both are better next week.
So Keath, Gardiner and Liberatore had little or no game time before Wednesday night.
It showed. (Although they had a few mates without that excuse)
Is it naive to think we could have found some fitter players among the leftovers who could have contributed more?
 
The Demons cut us to pieces on turnover - we need to work on this area of our game. We gave the ball up too easily and had no structure behind the ball allowing them to transition the ball fluently into attack.
Obviously our issues with turnover defence are indisputable, but I think looking back at our performances under Beveridge tells us a lot about the root of the problem. I don't think it's necessarily that we can't structure behind the ball - it's a balance issue that's driven a great deal by personnel.

Points For
Points Against
2015
4th
7th​
2016
12th​
3rd
2017
15th​
8th
2018
15th​
13th
2019
3rd
13th​
2020
6th
10th​
2021
2nd
4th​
*Note: green = clearly the better phase; yellow = mildly better phase

Anecdotally, the criticism of our team in 2015 (and indeed what lost us the final we do not speak of) was that we were inclined to run forward of the ball and not defend as well as we needed to. In 2016, we made considerable adjustments: while our offence fired in the finals (which was necessary for us to win), it was our defence that drove us forward. We structured more conservatively around the centre bounce and held defenders back behind the play at all times, and defended exceptionally well as a result. The problem was that we struggled to score until everything clicked when it needed to (with three talls up forward and two rucks, mind you).

This same pattern persisted for several years after that: painstaking ball movement where if we got drive from behind we were golden, but if we didn't there was absolutely no way for us to score. We weren't getting any better, and as a result, 2019 brought radical changes again. We were much more inclined to take attacking positions at the centre bounce (NOTE: this coinciding with the addition of 6-6-6 is no coincidence - we could no longer easily play someone behind the ball or up at the contest), but we got absolutely killed on the rebound. Since then, we've been working on bringing our defence up to scratch while maintaining our aggressive play, but it's been tough.

The key in all this is that we have only very rarely demonstrated under Beveridge that we can defend well without sacrificing scoring, or vice versa. Save for 2021 (which I'll talk about in a moment) we have always either scored well or defended well, but almost never both at the same time.

So why was 2021 our best, most balanced year in terms of performance? I think a huge part of it was our structure: for the first time in however long we had two genuine key position forwards, two rucks for a chunk of the year, and a balanced back six - not to mention a centre bounce crew that had the ball on a string at times.

But that's all changed with Martin going the way of the dodo, Bruce's injury, and the inability of anybody under them to really show drastic improvement. We've lost that, and playing small has almost never resulted in consistently good performance under Beveridge.

There are a few ways of looking at this, but I see the forward line as being the big problem here. History suggests that with our forward line the way it is currently, we are probably going to require aggressive offensive play to get anywhere near kicking a winning score. Without fail, though, that desperately hurts us back the other way and leaves us unbearably vulnerable to turnovers (which were a big problem this round).

It's not panic stations yet, but as much as our backline is problematic, I think it's amplified by our scoring woes. We don't have faith in our ability to score and it's probably for good reason. There is a lot of tinkering that needs to happen but we need to find a forward 50 composition quickly if we want to have a good year - or, we need to play stifling football until one emerges.
 

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Obviously our issues with turnover defence are indisputable, but I think looking back at our performances under Beveridge tells us a lot about the root of the problem. I don't think it's necessarily that we can't structure behind the ball - it's a balance issue that's driven a great deal by personnel.

Points For
Points Against
2015
4th
7th​
2016
12th​
3rd
2017
15th​
8th
2018
15th​
13th
2019
3rd
13th​
2020
6th
10th​
2021
2nd
4th​
*Note: green = clearly the better phase; yellow = mildly better phase

Anecdotally, the criticism of our team in 2015 (and indeed what lost us the final we do not speak of) was that we were inclined to run forward of the ball and not defend as well as we needed to. In 2016, we made considerable adjustments: while our offence fired in the finals (which was necessary for us to win), it was our defence that drove us forward. We structured more conservatively around the centre bounce and held defenders back behind the play at all times, and defended exceptionally well as a result. The problem was that we struggled to score until everything clicked when it needed to (with three talls up forward and two rucks, mind you).

This same pattern persisted for several years after that: painstaking ball movement where if we got drive from behind we were golden, but if we didn't there was absolutely no way for us to score. We weren't getting any better, and as a result, 2019 brought radical changes again. We were much more inclined to take attacking positions at the centre bounce (NOTE: this coinciding with the addition of 6-6-6 is no coincidence - we could no longer easily play someone behind the ball or up at the contest), but we got absolutely killed on the rebound. Since then, we've been working on bringing our defence up to scratch while maintaining our aggressive play, but it's been tough.

The key in all this is that we have only very rarely demonstrated under Beveridge that we can defend well without sacrificing scoring, or vice versa. Save for 2021 (which I'll talk about in a moment) we have always either scored well or defended well, but almost never both at the same time.

So why was 2021 our best, most balanced year in terms of performance? I think a huge part of it was our structure: for the first time in however long we had two genuine key position forwards, two rucks for a chunk of the year, and a balanced back six - not to mention a centre bounce crew that had the ball on a string at times.

But that's all changed with Martin going the way of the dodo, Bruce's injury, and the inability of anybody under them to really show drastic improvement. We've lost that, and playing small has almost never resulted in consistently good performance under Beveridge.

There are a few ways of looking at this, but I see the forward line as being the big problem here. History suggests that with our forward line the way it is currently, we are probably going to require aggressive offensive play to get anywhere near kicking a winning score. Without fail, though, that desperately hurts us back the other way and leaves us unbearably vulnerable to turnovers (which were a big problem this round).

It's not panic stations yet, but as much as our backline is problematic, I think it's amplified by our scoring woes. We don't have faith in our ability to score and it's probably for good reason. There is a lot of tinkering that needs to happen but we need to find a forward 50 composition quickly if we want to have a good year - or, we need to play stifling football until one emerges.
Great post.
I noticed in the Rd 1 match that we were trying for the high risk, high reward plays a fair bit. That's consistent with your observations here. I think it's also compounded by our lack of pace on the outside (compared to Langdon et al) which means by the time the ball arrives the opposition defence has flooded back. It forces us to try to find targets just inside the arc ... and they are mostly covered.

The problem was our execution of these high risk plays was somewhere between poor and woeful (except for a brief spell in the 2nd quarter) and we got killed on the rebound. Melbourne's pressure on the ball carrier had a bit to do with our poor execution and it's something that other coaches will have taken note of.

We need a Bruce or a firing JUH inside 50. We also need marking targets down the line.
A bit of pace and clean handling outside would really help. I'm not really a Vandermeer fan so I'd like to see Jones given a look soon.
 
And so it begins ... apart from the three LTIs we seem to have a few suffering post-covid effects (JUH and Libba at least) and now some new injuries to best 22 players.

Was Martin a tactical withdrawal or an injury?
Had Keath sufficiently recovered from his shin injury?

Also any reports on English and Treloar? There were concerns for both in the Melbourne game although English seemed to finish strongly.
Treloar's was in the last couple of minutes so who knows?
 
Great post.
I noticed in the Rd 1 match that we were trying for the high risk, high reward plays a fair bit. That's consistent with your observations here. I think it's also compounded by our lack of pace on the outside (compared to Langdon et al) which means by the time the ball arrives the opposition defence has flooded back. It forces us to try to find targets just inside the arc ... and they are mostly covered.

The problem was our execution of these high risk plays was somewhere between poor and woeful (except for a brief spell in the 2nd quarter) and we got killed on the rebound. Melbourne's pressure on the ball carrier had a bit to do with our poor execution and it's something that other coaches will have taken note of.

We need a Bruce or a firing JUH inside 50. We also need marking targets down the line.
A bit of pace and clean handling outside would really help. I'm not really a Vandermeer fan so I'd like to see Jones given a look soon.
Agree with the above. When we have those fast transitions from defence, there is invariably a turnover trying to go inside 50 or we just hold the ball for too long because of a lack of confidence to hit up a target (most likely because there isn't a target other than Naughton).

My first post here was potting JUH that he shouldn't be playing but based on round 1, there's really nothing to lose because we need another tall forward to support Naughton. Weightman and Vandermeer were woeful. Not sure if Bevo still hates Wallis but at least with Wallis he is good for 1 to 2 goals and will put pressure on (particularly now given he's fighting for his career).

Ins: TOB, Wallis, Jones
Out: Cordy, Weightmann, Vandermeer

Could also toy with bringing Sweet in for additional ruck support. Given Martin is contracted, why not just play him and have Sweet as the sub if he goes down with an injury. Or have a smaller sub and just rotate Schache, TOB through the second ruck whilst English spells.

I must say, English floating back into Defence has been a great move, I have been really impressed with him YTD.
 
And so it begins ... apart from the three LTIs we seem to have a few suffering post-covid effects (JUH and Libba at least) and now some new injuries to best 22 players.

Was Martin a tactical withdrawal or an injury?
Had Keath sufficiently recovered from his shin injury?

Also any reports on English and Treloar? There were concerns for both in the Melbourne game although English seemed to finish strongly.
Treloar's was in the last couple of minutes so who knows?

Both fine mate. Only issues to come out were JJ and Bont. (According to our medical team)
 
I noticed in the Rd 1 match that we were trying for the high risk, high reward plays a fair bit.
The beauty of Melbourne's excellently balanced forward line is that it allows them to play and structure very conservatively and still score. It lets them really play to our weaknesses by spending a lot of time closing down our offensive forays and then having confidence that they can score either on the counter or on a slow play. We saw just how hard they work to shut us down in the second quarter: as soon as that intensity drops slightly, we look a million dollars and their better-credentialed backline can't keep up either.

We match up very, very poorly against them which is problematic considering they're the best team in the comp. I agree we need more reliable and consistent pace on the outside (as an aside, starting this game with Roarke and Macrae on the wings was an astonishingly poor decision) and somebody to make that second key forward role their own. I am a bit concerned about where that can come from.
 

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The beauty of Melbourne's excellently balanced forward line is that it allows them to play and structure very conservatively and still score. It lets them really play to our weaknesses by spending a lot of time closing down our offensive forays and then having confidence that they can score either on the counter or on a slow play. We saw just how hard they work to shut us down in the second quarter: as soon as that intensity drops slightly, we look a million dollars and their better-credentialed backline can't keep up either.

We match up very, very poorly against them which is problematic considering they're the best team in the comp. I agree we need more reliable and consistent pace on the outside (as an aside, starting this game with Roarke and Macrae on the wings was an astonishingly poor decision) and somebody to make that second key forward role their own. I am a bit concerned about where that can come from.
Although I will say, the complete inability of any of our key defenders to defend Ben Brown is ****ing staggering. No disrespect to him - he's carved out a really excellent career and is a well deserved premiership player - but he is entirely predictable. He will run in a straight line directly at the ball carrier at all times. If he runs in a different direction it is a fake lead and he will always double back. Our inability to stop him from kicking a bag on us is astonishing.
 
Although I will say, the complete inability of any of our key defenders to defend Ben Brown is ******* staggering. No disrespect to him - he's carved out a really excellent career and is a well deserved premiership player - but he is entirely predictable. He will run in a straight line directly at the ball carrier at all times. If he runs in a different direction it is a fake lead and he will always double back. Our inability to stop him from kicking a bag on us is astonishing.
Keath has always struggled with tall long forwards who can jump. He simply doesn't have the size or athletic ability to match them in the air. He is much more suited to the Riewoldt, Walker, JJK etc. type of forwards.
 
McKay, Curnow and de Koning means we must retain Gardner, warts and all. Cordy must be the one to make way for O'Brien.
 

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Opinion Changes for Round 2 vs The Blues

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