Prediction Changes round 19 V Lions @ The Gabba

[grassman75]

Can begin to feel like beating a dead horse at this stage, but something I'd like to point out.

Games umpired by Nathan Williamson:
Dogs: 14.7 frees / game
Opponent: 28 frees / game

Those Opponents usually average (without these games added in):
Pies - 18.6 for, 18.9 against
Geelong - 19.3 for, 18.2 against
Crows - 20.7 for, 20.8 against


Games not umpired by Nathan Williamson
Dogs: 19.1 frees / game
Opponent: 16.1 frees / game


I don't care about personnel changes. I just don't want this man umpiring our games any longer. Is that too much to ask?

Clear Dogs favouritism by the umps other than Williamson….3 extra frees for a game…unheard of #fre#freekickdogs

 

[grassman75]

If you play for a small club you get weeks / initial charge stands….big club it gets overturned….

 

[Mucat]

We need some grit and hard work down back.

Sellwood needs to come in to see if he can cement a spot before finals.

It’s a big stage but I’d back him in.

Although i never seen Sellwood play i really him to debu and yes i agree i like him to cement a spot before the finals i like to see his hardness to see whats it like

 

[Bald Headed Flog]

Clear Dogs favouritism by the umps other than Williamson….3 extra frees for a game…unheard of #fre#freekickdogs

Funny thing is I’ve looked a lot more in depth into this in the past. Looked at trends of free kick counts, and expected vs actual frees for each umpire assigned to us over the last 10 years (based on our average For/Against and opponents average For/Against in a rolling 20 game period). Williamson has nowhere near the worst record over that time period, it’s only really been recently.

Don’t know what changed but it’s hard not to feel like there’s a recent bias..

 

[grassman75]

Looks like it's going to be a bit of a wet Gabba Friday night. We haven't had too many rain affected games this year which we are normally pretty good in, so may suit us a little more as the underdog.

That’d be ****ing right, first game of live footy in 3 years and its gonna rain…fmd

 

[Mucat]

Has anybody seen Jamarra at training today

 

[RWnBluey]

Clear Dogs favouritism by the umps other than Williamson….3 extra frees for a game…unheard of #fre#freekickdogs

It’s such a laughable misconception by opposition supporters. Over the last three seasons we’ve finished 8th, 12th, and 10th respectively in free kick differential.

 

[grassman75]

It’s such a laughable misconception by opposition supporters. Over the last three seasons we’ve finished 8th, 12th, and 10th respectively in free kick differential.

As I always say, differential is rubbish….if you are first to the ball and win free kicks, but are also coached to be disciplined, you will always win the differential….what does it matter? When we were on top of the differential table, we were something like 5th or 6th for Frees for…..it’s stupid

 

[TheScriptorWL]

If we as a Football club allow Hipwood(Biggest individual downhill skier imaginable) to kick five on us again...

 

[TheScriptorWL]

Zac Bailey

33

Zac Bailey

Age

26

Ht

181cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

12.9

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

5.6

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.4

3star

CL

0.7

3star

D

13.4

4star

K

6.6

3star

HB

6.8

5star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.8

5star

CL

0.6

3star

will miss our clash this Friday.

 

[Dog 36]

Zac Bailey will miss our clash this Friday.

Who ever replaces him back them in for the Majak Daw award

 

[grassman75]

Zac Bailey will miss our clash this Friday.

That’s one less who usually kicks two or three on us. I’m bullish about how we will go. They are down two premiership defenders too and Kiddy and Doodee are underdone if they come in

 

[grassman75]

Who ever replaces him back them in for the Majak Daw award

Nah, it’s always Hipwood….hes 3 x MJM…likely again

 

[BigFloppa]

Do we bring in Gardner to play on Hipwood?

 

[grassman75]

Do we bring in Gardner to play on Hipwood?

If you want to make sure of a 4th straight MDM

 

[BrisDog]

Do we bring in Gardner to play on Hipwood?

Nothing like old Hipper’s getting a cheap half dozen out the back every year.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Any tips re: tickets? Will be up north for work, and managed to squeeze in an extra night's stay to get to the Gabba. Shocked there's only single tickets only, as am keen to go with a mate.

This is it for us - our last hurrah. Strangely confident we'll put on a good show.

We are sitting section 416 row PP if you see any close by.

 

[adogsfan5]

Dunno why but gut feel says Buss comes back in.

 

[Golden_6]

Bailey is a massive loss

The exact type of player that we struggle to stop and would have a field day with our high press as is.

 

[Doggies7]

Do we play two KPDs on Hipwood at the same time? Might be able to hold him to 3 or 4

 

[adogsfan5]

Rate this so highly from Lloydy

 

[BulldogMuscle]

Rate this so highly from Lloydy

So pretty much what 90% of anyone who has watched us in the last few years was advocating for. Buss, Buku or Jones had to come back in to free up Lobb.

 

[dogwatch]

Rate this so highly from Lloydy

It seems like a simple and compelling point that Lloyd makes ... until you realise the video footage doesn't match the analysis.

Take another look.
(1) He says there is always Jones or Khamis blocking or "in the background", blah, blah. However in no more than two of those examples is the presence of Jones or O'Donnell a factor in giving Lobb a clear run at the intercepting mark. And at least one of those two examples is debatable.

(2) Then have a look where ALL of those intercepts are taken. Between the arcs. Not caught man-on-man deep in the 50.
Now compare that to where the ball was in the the second reel - the footage they showed from last Saturday. All of it was delivered inside the defensive 50, usually deep.
So he's comparing apples and oranges.

(3) Then look at the delivery in the two sets of footage. The first set (from earlier games) is from high bombs out of defence. There were no intercepts of spearing passes. The ball has lots of hang time for a tall interceptor such as Lobb to drift across and take the mark. But the second reel (footage from Saturday) showed Adelaide players with loads of time delivering unpressured pinpoint passes to forwards:

(a) Rozee to Fogarty who was 10m clear of his opponent when the ball left Rozee's boot,​

(b) a Crow running straight through the middle delivering to a leading Thilthorpe 40m out,​

(c) Walker running around on his left with a leisurely well-weighted pass over the top to Thilthorpe running back toward goal,​

(d) a long but fairly low pass to the pocket where Walker had sagged off his opponent and found oodles of space,​

(e) a similar one to the opposite pocket where a long kick to advantage found Thilthorpe, again running back.​

​

(f) Only the final one was materially different where Thilthorpe snatched the mark off the top of a pack in the goal square.​

I'd argue that all but the last were a result of a player delivering inside 50 being allowed too much time to spot up a target. So they were nearly all low, accurate kicks for uncontested or easy marks to the tall forward.
Once again it's apples and oranges.

I'm not saying Lloyd's point is totally wrong. I agree with him that Lobb's best work IS as an interceptor (and also as a director of the defensive unit when he's allowed to roam the d50). It's more that Lloyd's two reels don't actually prove the point he's trying to make. They show quite different phases of play.

A better analysis would acknowledge those reel differences. It would first ask "how can Adelaide just stroll through the middle with uncontested delivery to Adelaide's trio of goalscorers?" and "what defensive system do you need to stop that from happening?" and "how can the role I'm talking about work just as well deep inside the d50 as it does when those easily cut out high bombs are floated into the space between the arcs?"

As we've been discussing over the last few days the answer has multiple parts.

Firstly you have to stop or minimise the easy transitions and unpressured delivery into the 50 (no examples of which were shown in the footage from earlier matches). More pressure, more effective tackling, stop the switching, etc.

The second part is where I do agree with Lloyd that you need someone - Lobb, or another player - to act as a sweeper. That alternative sweeper (if Lobb is needed to man up because of his unique height) cannot be Khamis for fairly obvious reasons. It could perhaps be Jones but he's not as quick as he use to be and might not even be match fit yet. It could be Busslinger but I'm not sure he has the physique, leap and confidence to play that role at AFL level yet. Or it could be Gardner whose main weapon used to be just the spoil, but this year has been taking a lot of intercept marks in the VFL. Also that last Thilthorpe mark in the pack is the sort of ball that Gardner has always been good at killing. A final possibility is O'Donnell, meaning his current role would be handed over to one of the others mentioned.

Then we also need to consider what we are losing if we remove a smaller player from the defensive unit to fit in a taller sweeper. It's probably Coffield (but there are other ways of doing it). If you remove a smaller defender and have a sweeper without responsibility to mark a particular opponent there is a risk that the loose opponent will scoop up the spilled ball and you still end up conceding easy goals. So the sweeper has to know how to play his role, and be confident he can take the clean mark or at least smash the ball over the boundary line. Creating a spillage to open play is not good enough.

 

[grassman75]

We are sitting section 416 row PP if you see any close by.

I’ll be in 412 somewhere up the back….wasnt much left when I got my tickets. Right behind the goals…hopefully get to see two Wtrs of Unicorn domination and none of Hipwood

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Got tickets in the members. My second Gabba game and first involving the doggies. Bring it on!