Prediction Changes v Cats (Thurs 22 May, 7:30pm @ Alphabet)

[Pencil case]

Didn’t realise we were second favourites for the flag

 

[_Cerberus_]

What is with all the flog Geelong fans laugh reacting any comment in which any of us mentions on any thread, at how the club looked after Smith well through his behaviour issues, and his ACL. And that we are disappointed with how he checked out, and wasn't committed to the club in his final months, and that the way he left us was piss poor. And questioning his most likely BS reasons for leaving "wanted a change" = "Geelong got in my head and convinced me to quit 18 months ago, plus the money and stroking my ego and building my brand was too much to pass." If the shoe was on the other foot, we'd hear no end of it.

Crazy how so many of them hated him when he was with us. Suddenly act over defensive in pot shots at the Dogs, and acting like we were in the wrong and how Smith is perfect now that he is with them. Then again, they thought Smith smacking a ball in someones face is "great football". Having lived in Geelong for so long, their fans are the biggest whiners, with sense of entitlement and bigger arrogance than most fan bases in the league. So no surprise they get hard ons over dog acts on the field. Smith could king hit Bont and knock him out, and their fans will be screaming "f**k yeah", and clapping him in the stands. That's the type of fan base they have.

 

[_Cerberus_]

Not buying the BS that Smith will miss at all. They are just keeping the media away, and will unleash him come Thursday night. He will act like a mouthy arrogant prick at times, but doubt our players will care all that much. He is up there in the league for turnovers, so let him bomb it blindly inside 50 all he wants. Geelong has better and more damaging players to worry about. It's 23 vs 23, so we will just go on worrying about our own game, than one player.

 

[Mojorisin]

What is with all the flog Geelong fans laugh reacting any comment in which any of us mentions on any thread, at how the club looked after Smith well through his behaviour issues, and his ACL. And that we are disappointed with how he checked out, and wasn't committed to the club in his final months, and that the way he left us was piss poor. And questioning his most likely BS reasons for leaving "wanted a change" = "Geelong got in my head and convinced me to quit 18 months ago, plus the money and stroking my ego and building my brand was too much to pass."

Crazy how so many of them hated him when he was with us. Suddenly act over defensive in pot shots at the Dogs, and acting like we were in the wrong and how Smith is perfect now that he is with them. Then again, they thought Smith smacking a ball in someones face is "great football". Having lived in Geelong for so long, their fans are the biggest whiners, with sense of entitlement and bigger arrogance than most fan bases in the league. So no surprise they get hard ons over dog acts on the field. Smith could king hit Bont and knock him out, and their fans will be screaming "f**k yeah", and clapping him in the stands. That's the type of fan base they have.

Same reason why he was worth absolutely nothing at the end of last year and all of a sudden he is viewed as their best midfielder.

 

[X_box_X]

What is with all the flog Geelong fans laugh reacting any comment in which any of us mentions on any thread, at how the club looked after Smith well through his behaviour issues, and his ACL. And that we are disappointed with how he checked out, and wasn't committed to the club in his final months, and that the way he left us was piss poor. And questioning his most likely BS reasons for leaving "wanted a change" = "Geelong got in my head and convinced me to quit 18 months ago, plus the money and stroking my ego and building my brand was too much to pass." If the shoe was on the other foot, we'd hear no end of it.

Crazy how so many of them hated him when he was with us. Suddenly act over defensive in pot shots at the Dogs, and acting like we were in the wrong and how Smith is perfect now that he is with them. Then again, they thought Smith smacking a ball in someones face is "great football". Having lived in Geelong for so long, their fans are the biggest whiners, with sense of entitlement and bigger arrogance than most fan bases in the league. So no surprise they get hard ons over dog acts on the field. Smith could king hit Bont and knock him out, and their fans will be screaming "f**k yeah", and clapping him in the stands. That's the type of fan base they have.

They're Geelong Football League supporters. Of course.

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

I think he will behave himself onfield. After all, none of the players have any issue with him; he was here, now he’s gone. He also - afawk - had an amicable relationship with everyone while at the club. His best friend, Laith, is still there. Baz is just drumming up a bit of publicity for himself, but he will concentrate on footy on game day.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Hopefully we smash the cats, then in a post game interview one of our players says - it's a shame to have played this game on such a little ground out here, but we've got a big run of games now at our home ground at Marvel that is adult sized and in the city.

 

[ossie_21]

I think he will behave himself onfield. After all, none of the players have any issue with him; he was here, now he’s gone. He also - afawk - had an amicable relationship with everyone while at the club. His best friend, Laith, is still there. Baz is just drumming up a bit of publicity for himself, but he will concentrate on footy on game day.

There will be a little bit of theatre, but it will probably mostly go away after the first tackle or two (like what Collingwood did to Langdon a few years back), where some players will pile on. Then it’s just another game where we would want everyone to beat their opponent.

 

[Mojorisin]

Hopefully we smash the cats, then in a post game interview one of our players says - it's a shame to have played this game on such a little ground out here, but we've got a big run of games now at our home ground at Marvel that is adult sized and in the city.

Should replay Richards comments from last time we played there in a mud pit.

 

[Palace03]

Sniff will behave himself to begin with but if the game goes his/Geelongs way watch the lip and antics start, he's a front runner.

Part of me wants a bit of niggle and to go after him, but that would be detrimental to us winning the game, which would really set up our season.

Was hoping Treloar would get up for this one, the 5 day break a non factor as he didnt play last week and the bye to come gives him the extra week to recover, could even sub him off so he doesnt have to play a full game. Treloar for Arty would have been a great result.

Think Arty for Baker will be the only change, unless someone unexpectedly doesnt get up off the 5 day break.

 

[Doggy]

Sniff will behave himself to begin with but if the game goes his/Geelongs way watch the lip and antics start, he's a front runner.

Part of me wants a bit of niggle and to go after him, but that would be detrimental to us winning the game, which would really set up our season.

Was hoping Treloar would get up for this one, the 5 day break a non factor as he didnt play last week and the bye to come gives him the extra week to recover, could even sub him off so he doesnt have to play a full game. Treloar for Arty would have been a great result.

Think Arty for Baker will be the only change, unless someone unexpectedly doesnt get up off the 5 day break.

Treloar is a test. Who knows

 

[House_of_Dahl]

Should replay Richards comments from last time we played there in a mud pit.

I'd totally forgotten about that! Geez this ground needs a breather

 

[Optimistic Dog]

It is nice to get all the positive press the best midfield, the best at this the best at that and so on. The talk after belting a weaken bombers team is like we are 10 zero. Do Not get me wrong the dogs have been very good and not played a bad game even in defeat with a lot of adversity. However, facts are we are 6/4 and a loss here will be 6/5 which is middle of the road.

So absolutely no reason to be complacent we really need to the win to be challenging for top 4.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Anyone got a spare standing room tix by any chance? Got mine weeks ago but now my daughter is wanting to tag along …

 

[Doggy]

Other than Dangerflop it looks like they're going to be full strength

 

[TMoney22]

So how do we win this game?

And how many hamstrings will ping at that chithole

 

[Mojorisin]

So how do we win this game?

Score more then they do.

 

[fargy]

Squiggle has this as one of two games for the rest of the year where we aren’t favourites with Geelong at a 59% chance to win (the other is Brisbane with a 51% chance of winning). There’s a few statistical models that are really high on us at the moment.

I understand that no prediction model is perfect, but this shows that if we maintain form we have a massive opportunity ahead, especially if we happen to win this week.

 

[dogwatch]

Squiggle has this as one of two games for the rest of the year where we aren’t favourites with Geelong at a 59% chance to win (the other is Brisbane with a 51% chance of winning). There’s a few statistical models that are really high on us at the moment.

I understand that no prediction model is perfect, but this shows that if we maintain form we have a massive opportunity ahead, especially if we happen to win this week.

Didn’t realise we were second favourites for the flag

Let's not forget we were 66-1 outsiders going into the 2016 finals series.

There are two morals to that:

1. The models are interesting but ultimately our destiny lies with us, not the modellers. We only have one job between now and the end of August. That's to make the top 4. Keep it simple. When we have finished top 4 we can start thinking about how we might win our next three. (Top 2 would be ideal to avoid the risk of travel, but we have shown on several occasions that we can win finals interstate if we have to.)

2. Don't be flattered by the odds if we are highly fancied. And don't be depressed if we are listed as long shots. If we have the cattle (which we do this year) we just need to get them on the park and playing their best team football. I know it's only Round 11 and there's plenty of time for things to change. But on 2025 form across the league so far I don't think there's any team that can match us when we are at our best.

 

[BigFloppa]

We've been here so many times before. We're on a hot streak, the media is hyping us up to be the best thing since sliced bread, we miss the 4 and get booted out of finals week one. Would love this year to be different. We need to sustain what we have started building and pinch a win as underdogs here. I hope we go into this match feeling like underdogs too because that's when we play our best.

 

[dogwatch]

We've been here so many times before. We're on a hot streak, the media is hyping us up to be the best thing since sliced bread, we miss the 4 and get booted out of finals week one. Would love this year to be different. We need to sustain what we have started building and pinch a win as underdogs here. I hope we go into this match feeling like underdogs too because that's when we play our best.

Agree. The psychology of being favourites does funny things. Complacency is an obvious one. A sudden bout of self-consciousness leading to self-doubt is another. If we start to overthink things we can lose our fluency, spontaneity and self-belief.

That's Bevo's challenge ... but it's also his favourite turf.

We need to be comfortable being overdogs.

 

[Iamspock]

Agree. The psychology of being favourites does funny things. Complacency is an obvious one. A sudden bout of self-consciousness leading to self-doubt is another. If we start to overthink things we can lose our fluency, spontaneity and self-belief.

That's Bevo's challenge ... but it's also his favourite turf.

We need to be comfortable being overdogs.

And us supporters need to go along for the ride. But we won't. . Not a bad thing, we don't want to be as insufferable as Hoks and Scats supporters.

 

[go_sports_team]

Agree. The psychology of being favourites does funny things. Complacency is an obvious one. A sudden bout of self-consciousness leading to self-doubt is another. If we start to overthink things we can lose our fluency, spontaneity and self-belief.

That's Bevo's challenge ... but it's also his favourite turf.

We need to be comfortable being overdogs.

For the first time in years we don't seem mentally weak, even when the pressure is on. I hope it's long lived.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

And us supporters need to go along for the ride. But we won't. . Not a bad thing, we don't want to be as insufferable as Hoks and Scats supporters.

“Scats” I love it. I went with the scat of the spotted quoll, or troll, in a reference to those from the Scats board who seem to like making deposits of laughing emoji’s on anything in reference to Baz.

 

[Iamspock]

“Scats” I love it. I went with the scat of the spotted quoll, or troll, in a reference to those from the Scats board who seem to like making deposits of laughing emoji’s on anything in reference to Baz.

Yep, good choice, looks like your average Scats supporter.