Prediction Changes v Hawks in Tassie

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BEaston

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It will also make it harder for us to win with any decent margin, that's assuming we can win it in the first place. We need to win by about 3 goals to take the percentage issue out of it, should Carlton lose.

In the last 10 years we have managed an average of 54 points at York Park against the Hawks (4 games). That doesn't fill me with hope. Even less so if it's wet and windy.

I'm somewhat encouraged by our finals win over Essendon there but the ground was just as foreign to Essendon as it was to us. The Bombers only other game there was a 13 point win over Hawthorn, also last year.

By contrast this ground has become something of a Hawthorn fortress. They have played there 73 times for 54 wins.
Correct me if I'm wrong but Percentage is a ratio. It doesn't matter how high/low scoring the game is.

You could argue it's better the game is low scoring for our requirements as the margin to gain the same amount of Percentage would be less.
 

AFDogs

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OUT: VDM, McNeill, Martin

IN: McLean, Sweet, Garcia

How's McLean been going in the VFL?
 

Foxman98

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OUT: VDM, McNeill, Martin

IN: McLean, Sweet, Garcia

How's McLean been going in the VFL?
Not good for the pressure forward doesn't have the same zip and speed as he used too, Sweet has not been that great either Stef was picked over him for a reason.
 

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doggies ftw

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Correct me if I'm wrong but Percentage is a ratio. It doesn't matter how high/low scoring the game is.

You could argue it's better the game is low scoring for our requirements as the margin to gain the same amount of Percentage would be less.
I feel like a simple points differential would be much easier & more straightforward for fans,

Ie currently Carlton are +144 points differential, we’re +138. So we’d just need to make up 6 points.

Whereas I think (could be wrong though) % works on a sliding scale so whether it’s higher or lower scoring the requirements are different?
 

BEaston

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I feel like a simple points differential would be much easier & more straightforward for fans,

Ie currently Carlton are +144 points differential, we’re +138. So we’d just need to make up 6 points.

Whereas I think (could be wrong though) % works on a sliding scale so whether it’s higher or lower scoring the requirements are different?
You can't have it that way as teams that play more often in good conditions (ie Marvel) will have an advantage.
 

Libbaaaa

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What margin do we need to win by to make a Collingwood win by even a 1 enough?
 

doggies ftw

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You can't have it that way as teams that play more often in good conditions (ie Marvel) will have an advantage.
Would that make a difference though? As sure it’s easier to score but it’s also easier for the opposition to score, so differential should be the same.

If we were only looking at points for I could see that argument
 

dogwatch

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Correct me if I'm wrong but Percentage is a ratio. It doesn't matter how high/low scoring the game is.

You could argue it's better the game is low scoring for our requirements as the margin to gain the same amount of Percentage would be less.
Yes that's correct. But we're trying to shift the whole year's ratio to something very close to Carlton's (108.8%), or preferably above it. So roughly speaking, to improve our ratio at all (currently 107.9%) we have to win by more than a goal. If we won 82-76 our percentage would remain unchanged. A two goal win 52-40 is better than a two goal win 100-88, but it only improves our percentage by 0.23% more than the higher scoring game would.

For me the magic margin is around three goals if we want percentage to be taken out of it, no matter how high or low the scores (assuming they will be in the usual range of about 40-110). We might well get by with a slightly lower winning margin of say 15 points but 18 points should make sure of it.

What I'm saying is it's much easier to get that 3 goal margin on a free-scoring day than on a low scoring slog of a day.

That said, all is not lost if we only win by a point. We will then need Collingwood to beat Carlton by around 3 goals. However that's not a prospect I'd want to have our season riding on.
 

Libbaaaa

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In round 10 both Hawthorn and Brissy went 100+ points down in Launy, hopefully shackles are unleashed. Hawthorn losing by 5-6 goals should see them go below Adelaide and into the 5th pick.
 

Optimistic Dog

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It will also make it harder for us to win with any decent margin, that's assuming we can win it in the first place. We need to win by about 3 goals to take the percentage issue out of it, should Carlton lose.

In the last 10 years we have managed an average of 54 points at York Park against the Hawks (4 games). That doesn't fill me with hope. Even less so if it's wet and windy.

I'm somewhat encouraged by our finals win over Essendon there but the ground was just as foreign to Essendon as it was to us. The Bombers only other game there was a 13 point win over Hawthorn, also last year.

By contrast this ground has become something of a Hawthorn fortress. They have played there 73 times for 54 wins.

Is it possible for the impossible to happen again. Last season with 3 games to play we 3 games and more than 10% ahead of the lions to make the top 4. This season the blues needed to win one of their last 4 games to be sure to make it. Like the famous Bill Collins line the only thing certain in life is death and taxes.
 

Fossie 32

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Correct me if I'm wrong but Percentage is a ratio. It doesn't matter how high/low scoring the game is.

You could argue it's better the game is low scoring for our requirements as the margin to gain the same amount of Percentage would be less.
A high scoring game could cause slightly greater percentage change?

If points for : against were

10:5 % = 200%

if the game was low scoring eg 20:5 [ratio 4:1] totals would become 30:10 %= 300%

But if game was high scoring 400:100 same ratio but totals 410:105 %= 390%

:drunk:
 

dogwatch

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A high scoring game could cause slightly greater percentage change?

If points for : against were

10:5 % = 200%

if the game was low scoring eg 20:5 [ratio 4:1] totals would become 30:10 %= 300%

But if game was high scoring 400:100 same ratio but totals 410:105 %= 390%

:drunk:
You've changed the margin from 15 points to 300 points! :drunk:

The "lower scoring is better" argument only applies where the points difference is the same (and also assuming our winning percentage on the day is greater than our season % so far - that's 107.9%).

So in your example a 400-385 win would be much, much worse!

By the way, who scored all the goals in that 400 point winning score?
 

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Fossie 32

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You've changed the margin from 15 points to 300 points! :drunk:

The "lower scoring is better" argument only applies where the points difference is the same (and also assuming our winning percentage on the day is greater than our season % so far - that's 107.9%).

So in your example a 400-385 win would be much, much worse!

By the way, who scored all the goals in that 400 point winning score?
Yes would only work if the winning ratio of higher score is same as that of a lower score
Astro 20 goals
JUH 14
Cody 19
 

BEaston

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A high scoring game could cause slightly greater percentage change?

If points for : against were

10:5 % = 200%

if the game was low scoring eg 20:5 [ratio 4:1] totals would become 30:10 %= 300%

But if game was high scoring 400:100 same ratio but totals 410:105 %= 390%

:drunk:
Interesting
 

Mr. Walker

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Way to derail a thread. But …….

Given the Pies fondness for winning margins in the single digits the heavy lifting for improving our percentage relative to the Blues will have to be done by us. Kick straight Jamarra.
 

bobs head soup

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The last time we played Hawks down there, the one player who had a career game (career high 24 touches, repeated intercept marks) was Tim O'Brien.

Seems a long time ago
 

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