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Prediction Changes Vs St Kilda round 4, 2021

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Please don't debut a kid as the sub

Just feels all wrong, such a Clarko thing.
I just have a feeling that they may 'rest' Allen due injury, Vardy comes into the side and then there is no choice as to the sub. Unless they drop someone else and play the lad. And doesn't that get a fine if the guy isn't a forced change?
 
And doesn't that get a fine if the guy isn't a forced change?
Don’t think so, provided they do it when they lodge the teams 60mins out from bouncedown and they don’t bring in someone from outside the named emergencies.
 
To me unless we see a complete midfield performance like the first half last week then we will be relying on Nicnat and Sheed to dominate clearances again to win the match.

Worth noting that while sheed leads (or is 1 off) the competition for clearances whilst shuey was dominating the first half he only had 1 clearance while in the first 2 rounds he was averaging 10 a game. In the second half as shuey moved more outsite and we stopped dominating the midfield as much sheed had 6 second half clearances.

We need to be 100% on in the midfield because Steele is a bull in there and the type of player like a cripps, cunnington or libba who can dominate the centre square even against really good sides and rucks.

(I'm not saying that all of the above 3 listed players are amazing players but that part of the game with us having a reduced midfield is where we can be hurt)

Also the only other negative i've noticed over the first 3 rounds is we are close to if not the slowest team in the league through the midfield (foot speed) which means if the saints flick the switch and are on we can leak goals quickly. Although we only lost a close one to the dogs and should have won if cripps didn't kick into the man on the mark the dogs should have had us buried by 6-8 goals at half time through their running play.

If we have our best 22 on the park and make it to the grand final the team I would actually least like to play is the dogs. The extra width there suits their running (throwing) game even more so than at marvel.

Lastly while everyone blasts the dockers for not picking Naughton he was always a defender as a junior and to me still looks better suited to it it's understandable freo not drafting him when they had drafted Logue the year before as a key defender whilst having Alex Pearce looking like he was (could still be injury withstanding) one of the best key defenders in the league. As one of the only freo players I like I really hope he can get his body right and have a strong later career in defence like Tarrant did at north (underrated, really should have got at least 1 AA jumper in defence)
 
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Sheed's getting there, but 1 Shuey clearance is still worth 2-3 of Dom's unfortunately

It's a little to do with roles and positions within the stoppage or CBD situation, I reckon. TK would now be taking the offensive role that Shuey has had, Dom's there to win his own ball but set up to try and stop the oppo a bit as well.
 
To me unless we see a complete midfield performance like the first half last week then we will be relying on Nicnat and Sheed to dominate clearances again to win the match.

Worth noting that while sheed leads (or is 1 off) the competition for clearances whilst shuey was dominating the first half he only had 1 clearance while in the first 2 rounds he was averaging 10 a game. In the second half as shuey moved more outsite and we stopped dominating the midfield as much sheed had 6 second half clearances.

We need to be 100% on in the midfield because Steele is a bull in there and the type of player like a cripps, cunnington or libba who can dominate the centre square even against really good sides and rucks.

(I'm not saying that all of the above 3 listed players are amazing players but that part of the game with us having a reduced midfield is where we can be hurt)

Also the only other negative i've noticed over the first 3 rounds is we are close to if not the slowest team in the league through the midfield (foot speed) which means if the saints flick the switch and are on we can leak goals quickly. Although we only lost a close one to the dogs and should have won if cripps didn't kick into the man on the mark the dogs should have had us buried by 6-8 goals at half time through their running play.

If we have our best 22 on the park and make it to the grand final the team I would actually least like to play is the dogs. The extra width there suits their running (throwing) game even more so than at marvel.

Lastly while everyone blasts the dockers for not picking Naughton he was always a defender as a junior and to me still looks better suited to it it's understandable freo not drafting him when they had drafted Logue the year before as a key defender whilst having Alex Pearce looking like he was (could still be injury withstanding) one of the best key defenders in the league. As one of the only freo players I like I really hope he can get his body right and have a strong later career in defence like Tarrant did at north (underrated, really should have got at least 1 AA jumper in defence)

Agreed. St Kilda are currently the second-worst contested team in the competition (ahead of North Melbourne only) - yet we are still missing Yeo and Shuey and should be taking nothing for granted. If Kelly gets a run-with that reduces his output, things no longer look so certain in the middle.

The Saints are stacked full of downhill skiers. If we lose the contested ball in this game, things could potentially unravel, as they have far more more pace on the outside to burn us with.

Superior ball use could be the difference today - St Kilda have started the season with the worst average clanger differential in the competition (+9.7), whereas West Coast are placed second (-11.3). Since Round 1, 2018, West Coast have only lost twice when the opposition has 12+ more clangers in a match.
 
Just by the by, Western Bulldogs have pulled Lipinski out of the named side and made him the medical sub, so there’d be no issue with us doing that with, for example, Petruccelle or Jones, in order to give Winder a proper debut.
 
Vardy still makes no sense. I really, really hope this is not NN late out areas.

I firmly believe that he’s cover for Allen as it’s been mentioned (and noticeable) that he’s been a bit sore
 
Just by the by, Western Bulldogs have pulled Lipinski out of the named side and made him the medical sub, so there’d be no issue with us doing that with, for example, Petruccelle or Jones, in order to give Winder a proper debut.
Sure, but they've replaced Lipinski with a tall, we're not going to replace someone with Winder for the sake of it.

It sucks but Winder is debuting today as the sub.
 

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I firmly believe that he’s cover for Allen as it’s been mentioned (and noticeable) that he’s been a bit sore

In what scenario, though? Not a Mitch Brown in the forward pocket as cover for a banged up Lycett. If someone else gets injured before Allen then Vardy comes in for them.

So it only works if they might pull Allen out before the game starts. Which kinda stacks up with us bringing Waterman into the 22.
 
In what scenario, though? Not a Mitch Brown in the forward pocket as cover for a banged up Lycett. If someone else gets injured before Allen then Vardy comes in for them.

So it only works if they might pull Allen out before the game starts. Which kinda stacks up with us bringing Waterman into the 22.


Yeah Vardy cover only if Allen doesn’t play. Vardy as the sub would be beyond stupid

Really annoyed we appear to be using Winder as the sub - it’s something the AFL need to fix. Sure give a guy match payment for being the sub regardless of whether he plays but he shouldn’t be credited with a game unless he’s used
 
The sub rule has made it confusing now. 2hrs out we still dont know who is def playing.
 

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Wouldn't be as big of a deal if everyone agreed not to debut players as subs
Im still hoping Simpson sticks to what i heard him say on 6pr a few weeks ago. " It would not be fair to debut a kid as the sub"

That definitely doesn't mean they never will but gives that impression to me.
 
Wouldn't be as big of a deal if everyone agreed not to debut players as subs

Or if they said “anyone not subbed on isn’t credited as playing a game”

Makes no sense that a player can sit there the whole game, not actually be active but be credited with an official game.
 
Anyway Barra has just tweeted that Winder is debuting as the sub, presumably Seven as the broadcaster has been given the official team sheets.
On one hand I’m pleased they’re (sort of) rewarding him for his good preseason/WAFL form but....

I’m beyond disappointed they’ve debuted him as the sub and without acknowledging a debut

Not happy
 
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