Analysis Danger on Tim Kelly + his 2020 contract

[Pure_Ownage]

I appreciated it too.

I don't like it when the media keeps saying he was trying to get home, or that we prevented him from going home because that is utter hogwash.

Kelly refused to go to Freo.

This means he didn't want to go home, he wanted to play for the Eagles.

Correct. It means either he or his partner wanted to avoid Freo more than they wanted to go home. Well said Roos.

 

[Larry Donohue]

Why would you put in fort but not abbott or smith who are both clearly a class above fort.

Also you may be missing fogerty from your list.

Love fogarty but was talking those who haven't played yet.
I wish Smith would get back seeds but seems out of favour with selectors and coaches.
Really confused by that actually.
Think he could certainly be the difference.

 

[dazbroncos]

Love fogarty but was talking those who haven't played yet.
I wish Smith would get back seeds but seems out of favour with selectors and coaches.
Really confused by that actually.
Think he could certainly be the difference.

Smith has a light mcl strain from the NTH practice match
Cost him both JLT and weeks 1 and 2 per Troy Selwood on KROCK.

Go Catters

 

[Larry Donohue]

Smith has a light mcl strain from the NTH practice match
Cost him both JLT and weeks 1 and 2 per Troy Selwood on KROCK.

Go Catters

I truly hope we get him back in the fold daz.
He could be invaluable to our year.

 

[iameviljez]

Patrick Dangerfield says West Coast’s billing as the best team in the AFL was a factor in Geelong’s inability to get a deal done to send Tim Kelly back to WA.

He's correct, but surely it was fairly obvious? I mean, in being top, not only would giving them Kelly make one of the best sides in the league stronger, but more so that they had no picks to trade with.

 

[Kwality]

He's correct, but surely it was fairly obvious? I mean, in being top, not only would giving them Kelly make one of the best sides in the league stronger, but more so that they had no picks to trade with.

Didnt Danger say more than your out of context quote ?

 

[Tinlids]

Hoping someone can answer the below.

If there is a Mexican standoff and Kelly enters the draft, how does his next contract ($ and term) get negotiated with a bidding club? And what happens if they don’t agree say on $ or does Tim have to agree with a team selecting him on a wage that is pre determined?

Thanks

 

[Kwality]

Hoping someone can answer the below.

If there is a Mexican standoff and Kelly enters the draft, how does his next contract ($ and term) get negotiated with a bidding club? And what happens if they don’t agree say on $ or does Tim have to agree with a team selecting him on a wage that is pre determined?

Thanks

Kelly would have a deal done with any club before the draft, a club would not want to lose a spot on its list - back in the day Tim Watson retired, West Coast took a punt, Timmy stayed in Melbourne, West Coast sucked it up.

 

[Turbocat]

Hoping someone can answer the below.

If there is a Mexican standoff and Kelly enters the draft, how does his next contract ($ and term) get negotiated with a bidding club? And what happens if they don’t agree say on $ or does Tim have to agree with a team selecting him on a wage that is pre determined?

Thanks

There is always going to be some sort of plan or agreed approach.

Lets say WC and Geelong can not agree.. and WC says... OK stuff them. We have cap room. You nominate 2 years at 600 and enter the draft. By the time the draft comes around I doubt there would be a lot of clubs that have that sort of room.. it would take planning. So he enters the draft and WC pick him. The nominated amount must go in their cap.. and geelong gets zero . The most recent example would be Ball

 

[you pick one]

There is always going to be some sort of plan or agreed approach.

Lets say WC and Geelong can not agree.. and WC says... OK stuff them. We have cap room. You nominate 2 years at 600 and enter the draft. By the time the draft comes around I doubt there would be a lot of clubs that have that sort of room.. it would take planning. So he enters the draft and WC pick him. The nominated amount must go in their cap.. and geelong gets zero . The most recent example would be Ball

There won't be another club silly enough to waste their time on him,he stays at Geelong (Doubtful)or West coast get a bargain and the Cats get SFA.

 

[Iago]

If the situation was reversed, what would West Coast want from us if we were trying to pry out a contracted (obviously uncontracted after this year) 2nd place finisher in their B'nF? I would think they would ask for J Clark and a 1st rounder at a minimum.

 

[cats_09]

If the situation was reversed, what would West Coast want from us if we were trying to pry out a contracted (obviously uncontracted after this year) 2nd place finisher in their B'nF? I would think they would ask for J Clark and a 1st rounder at a minimum.

This was WCE's top 2 from last year:
west coast eagles (john worsfold medal)
1 – Elliot Yeo (197 votes)
2 – Jeremy McGovern (191)

Think it's safe to suggest they'd be wanting a heap for McGovern, who was set to be a sought after free agent at the end of last season until he signed a 5-year deal. No doubt had he remained a FA WCE would have matched any offer & then forced a trade, and I'd bet they'd want more for him than we paid for Danger

 

[Pure_Ownage]

There won't be another club silly enough to waste their time on him,he stays at Geelong (Doubtful)or West coast get a bargain and the Cats get SFA.

Freo will have a PSD pick before WCE and will take him. And if he refuses to accept he has to sit out of afl all together which he wont do. If he goes to the PSD geelong get nothing but neither do west coast.

 

[Cattergirl]

There won't be another club silly enough to waste their time on him,he stays at Geelong (Doubtful)or West coast get a bargain and the Cats get SFA.

If Tim goes to the draft, make no mistake, Freo would take him if he is available at their pick

 

[Turbocat]

Freo will have a PSD pick before WCE and will take him. And if he refuses to accept he has to sit out of afl all together which he wont do. If he goes to the PSD geelong get nothing but neither do west coast.

He will go the National draft not the PSD imo.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

There is always going to be some sort of plan or agreed approach.

Lets say WC and Geelong can not agree.. and WC says... OK stuff them. We have cap room. You nominate 2 years at 600 and enter the draft. By the time the draft comes around I doubt there would be a lot of clubs that have that sort of room.. it would take planning. So he enters the draft and WC pick him. The nominated amount must go in their cap.. and geelong gets zero . The most recent example would be Ball

I know we're going back a long way here but what's the difference between the Luke Ball saga and what happened with Brett Chalmers?
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/01/09/the-tamper-affair-how-pies-lost-a-young-star/

Brett Chalmers copped a 3 year ban for telling clubs he wasn't going to play for them before the draft. Kelly has already publicly stated he won't play for Fremantle so if he nominates he does so already having made it clear to a club that he won't play for them.

It sounds a bit wild to say it out loud but isn't that the definition of draft tampering? After the AFL had to warn a Ben King about what he was saying to the suns last year I think a player using the draft to pick their club of choice would be a bad look. I dunno, call me crazy

 

[Turbocat]

I know we're going back a long way here but what's the difference between the Luke Ball saga and what happened with Brett Chalmers?
https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/01/09/the-tamper-affair-how-pies-lost-a-young-star/

Brett Chalmers copped a 3 year ban for telling clubs he wasn't going to play for them before the draft. Kelly has already publicly stated he won't play for Fremantle so if he nominates he does so already having made it clear to a club that he won't play for them.

It sounds a bit wild to say it out loud but isn't that the definition of draft tampering? After the AFL had to warn a Ben King about what he was saying to the suns last year I think a player using the draft to pick their club of choice would be a bad look. I dunno, call me crazy

"In system" player nominate wage ... and they use that as leverage , by the time of the draft a club would have to be prepared to draft him at that wage and most will not have that type of space. It why I dont see him nominating for PSD if it comes to that.
This is possible but not probable ..as Geelong will deal if it comes to that. Based on last years results being repeated .. wc will have 18 and 30... Do we take 30 as being better than nothing ? Doesn't sound great but 30 would have got us Bailey Williams in 2018.

 

[David the Cat]

Doesn't sound great?....

A masterful example of understatement.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

"In system" player nominate wage ... and they use that as leverage , by the time of the draft a club would have to be prepared to draft him at that wage and most will not have that type of space. It why I dont see him nominating for PSD if it comes to that.
This is possible but not probable ..as Geelong will deal if it comes to that. Based on last years results being repeated .. wc will have 18 and 30... Do we take 30 as being better than nothing ? Doesn't sound great but 30 would have got us Bailey Williams in 2018.

Pick 30 won't get us Bailey Williams in this draft. I think the afl would be keen to not set a precedent that an out of contract player becomes effectively a free agent but without the compensation. If Kelly again performs well and podiums in the b&f I doubt the cats roll over.

Plus i feel like the Luke Ball case is a far different scenario. Luke would have been a free agent if the rules existed then. He'd been at the saints 8 years. He was also getting dropped, and murmuring was that there was some kind of rift.

This is why i feel that it's more like the Chalmers case. Cats are excited to have him and he's not been on the list long enough to be a free agent. He's also publicly declared to all clubs that he will only be playing for west coast in 2020 and has made clear there are real reasons for this, which makes the requirement to be willing to play for any club which calls his name a farce. Isn't that plainly draft tampering?

Like i said, if the AFL allowed that kind of precedent where any kid out the draft could walk after two years then the suns would pump 20-30 games into their top 10 picks before watching them all walk out for a second rounder.

I think that what Tim's management will have to do here is "clarify" that freo is an option after all regardless of his actual intention. That takes draft tampering in case of no deal off the table but also opens freo up to take him before west coast. I think that gets an ok trade on the table like Bailey Williams plus their first maybe our second back or third of we have a Barry Crocker this year.

If freo were at the party making legitimate offers i think it changes the landscape pretty substantially

 

[Pure_Ownage]

He will go the National draft not the PSD imo.

And Freo will still take him before WCE there.

 

[Turbocat]

Pick 30 won't get us Bailey Williams in this draft. I think the afl would be keen to not set a precedent that an out of contract player becomes effectively a free agent but without the compensation. If Kelly again performs well and podiums in the b&f I doubt the cats roll over.

Plus i feel like the Luke Ball case is a far different scenario. Luke would have been a free agent if the rules existed then. He'd been at the saints 8 years. He was also getting dropped, and murmuring was that there was some kind of rift.

This is why i feel that it's more like the Chalmers case. Cats are excited to have him and he's not been on the list long enough to be a free agent. He's also publicly declared to all clubs that he will only be playing for west coast in 2020 and has made clear there are real reasons for this, which makes the requirement to be willing to play for any club which calls his name a farce. Isn't that plainly draft tampering?

Like i said, if the AFL allowed that kind of precedent where any kid out the draft could walk after two years then the suns would pump 20-30 games into their top 10 picks before watching them all walk out for a second rounder.

I think that what Tim's management will have to do here is "clarify" that freo is an option after all regardless of his actual intention. That takes draft tampering in case of no deal off the table but also opens freo up to take him before west coast. I think that gets an ok trade on the table like Bailey Williams plus their first maybe our second back or third of we have a Barry Crocker this year.

If freo were at the party making legitimate offers i think it changes the landscape pretty substantially

Well obviously ... Williams was drafted last year. And who is in this draft at 30 I have no idea at this stage. It was just an example.

My point is the system does allow for us to have a negative outcome .. we decided that we would hold him to contract knowing that we probably would get less becuase we wanted him this year.. and maybe to make a stand on contracted players.

I dont agree its like the Chalmers case. For a start he is an in system player. If Kelly had told all pre draft that he would not move if picked..that would have been far more like Chalmers. That Chalmers case is a long time ago ..and players now have far more hand in these dealings.. since then there have been several players that have done similar type declarations to Chalmers pre draft with no consequences ..mabe quiet word here or there. They were probably smarter than Chalmers.. More like if you draft me I will go after two years etc.

Id agree the afl would have a POV about if it ..and I think they would attempt to persuade both clubs to come to the table and get a deal done .. and if we get something better than their P30 ( which appears to be Swans pick so dependant on where they finish) we may end up with having to take it. If we get more ..then we should probably be realistic and move on... but the idea of getting the type of deal we were asking last year.. is probably not going to happen imo.

 

[Turbocat]

And Freo will still take him before WCE there.

If Freo make it clear they are capable of drafting him and intend to draft him if a deal falls thru ..I can only hope they make that clear while a deal is still able to be done. If so Freo do us huge favour.

But would they really beat WC to Kelly. Going by the same table based on last years position.. Freo has 5 , 23 and 77 ... so one would have to say IF they have cap space that they have kept clear specifically ie at least 1/2 a M of room compared to draft a fresh kid.. I guess they would be happy to use P23 on him. , but would WC use 18 ? on him . If we are requiring that we want their R1 pick ... how is using their R1 pick in draft any different than them trading their R1 pick. I can not see Freo using their R1 pick (p5)on Kelly. I cant see a non WA club picking him.

Would WC really care if Freo beat them to the punch. It would be hardly be surprising if they do treat Kelly in such a way...again.

As I said I believe it will not come to that.. and a deal will most likely get done ...but it will be less than some feel it will be ... (early R1picks etc). Maybe we get WC R1 and we trade a pick back to them? Maybe WC trade their P30 and P36 and we get two R2 picks which while not ideal ..SW would probably get a couple of handy kids from. Maybe its a player WC are happy to move with Kelly coming in.
Im not sure what it would be... its too early..and if WC fall in a hole this year the numbers are obviously different (pick numbers etc)

 

[Kwality]

If freo were at the party making legitimate offers i think it changes the landscape pretty substantially

Because they arent a contender?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Because they arent a contender?

Not at all. Competitive bidding increases prices for any trade scenario. Freo were ruled out by Tim's management meaning there was only one party we could trade with so we were selling to a monopoly. Simple economics.

I think you seem be framing a minor throw away comment by a player (not a list manager) as the driving force for trading strategy here too. Not sure it's an accurate representation

 

[Benny78]

I wouldn't be basing our midfield around Kelly. He'll probably leave and the structure will become redundant and set us back a season. Build the midfield around Selwood/Danger/Duncan with Kelly/Menegola as supports. I'll be annoyed if I see Kelly playing Danger/Selwood/Duncans role and they're pushed out the middle.

I don't really rate him, he's elite but crashes packs and creates too many stoppages and causes the ball to spill out to anyone too often. Would rather a player have control of the ball and clear it to the forward line securely. If he's going to be one of our main ball users and going to crash into a a contest that's already occurring he needs to make sure he wins the ball, and ideally clear the ball safely after.

Too often he just flies in like lightning when Selwood or Danger are already on the the man. He just rambos in and creates a ball up or spills it out and leaves it to chance.