David King Says It Will Be A Cake Walk! That makes Me Very Nervous.

[domus]

Is King trying the triple jinx. He is saying the race is over and nobody will come close to us come the finals. It makes me so bloody nervous when media pundits jump on board with such certainty.

The “absolute rarity” that has helped Collingwood create a significant gap with the rest of the league

The Magpies are the firm flag favourites.

www.sen.com.au

 

[Harry O]

He was saying the same thing about Geelong the second half of last season. Well before most other experts

 

[Jen2310]

he has been a believer since the pre-season when he came down to watch us at training.

 

[Doc1763]

He was saying the same thing about Geelong the second half of last season. Well before most other experts

and also about us in 2010

 

[thebigsaveloy]

We are definitely the best team right now. Whether we'll stay injury free and win the flag remains to be seen.

 

[Seedsman_]

We have this Geelong 2022 feeling about us this year. I fully expect to win the flag and anything else is a complete failure.

 

[danielnajdek]

We have this Geelong 2022 feeling about us this year. I fully expect to win the flag and anything else is a complete failure.

I don’t think like this. Sets me up for disappointment.

 

[thebaldfacts]

David King is a good judge. When Carlton was in a mess with calls to sack Voss, he was one of the few saying that their problems were easy to fix and not to panic. Has been consistently saying our best is the best and that we are well ahead of the competition.
However Simpson did say Brisbane were favourites whilst Brad Scott said Geelong is the best team they have played. At least a few coaches are not yet on board the magpie train.

 

[Jelly Bean]

He also said Daicos for the Brownlow after seeing him in preseason training... He seems to have a good eye.

I am not so convinced. I think we are deservedly favourites, but not absolute monties. We are 1 win and 2 losses against the other Top 4 teams. This week is huge and then the Brisbane game later in the year is just as huge.

 

[3rdMan]

He's said a few different things over the year. Originally it was that Pies were not as good as it seemed and other teams were right there with them.

Not convinced he actually believes we're clear favourites from here, but it's hardly revelatory we are on top and the 2nd team just got belted.

 

[Ricky90]

7 or 8 years ago Kingy and his analysis was a little cringe, kind of amateur hour. But he's now almost exclusively the only ex player-cum-expert analyst that I take seriously.

In this instance I think he's called it early. Brisbane will have something to say about this year's flag I suspect.

For me, it's a two horse race.

 

[FAIRANDBALANCED]

He is a good judge, but nobody can predict luck and you need a bit of it to win a GF, mostly with injuries. Nice challenge for us this weekend to prove how good we are.

 

[Doc1763]

The thing I like about King is, he doesn't allow any preconceived biases to cloud his judgment. If his analysis says we are clear favourites, he has no issue with saying so. You cant say that about others.

 

[Markfs]

Is King trying the triple jinx. He is saying the race is over and nobody will come close to us come the finals. It makes me so bloody nervous when media pundits jump on board with such certainty.

The “absolute rarity” that has helped Collingwood create a significant gap with the rest of the league

The Magpies are the firm flag favourites.

www.sen.com.au

king is looking for an audience....and why not go for the biggest. He's ridden the pie train before.

 

[Pistol Night]

7 or 8 years ago Kingy and his analysis was a little cringe, kind of amateur hour. But he's now almost exclusively the only ex player-cum-expert analyst that I take seriously.

In this instance I think he's called it early. Brisbane will have something to say about this year's flag I suspect.

For me, it's a two horse race.

If we happen to play Brisbane in the GF at a packed MCG I’ll be very confident. The record will be in their heads now. Plus we’re better

 

[Soups]

I’ve got a very 2011 feeling about this unfortunately for me. I was overseas for 5 weeks in 2011 missed most of our games where we blitz teams in 1 quarter.

Away overseas this year for the same time and we are doing nearly the same thing. Geelong and getting primed too

Love the way we are playing the last couple of weeks.

 

[Seedsman_]

I don’t think like this. Sets me up for disappointment.

I understand mate but we are the best team in the league and are only just getting our best side on the park. We have a few extra gears to reach which I believe will happen in the finals.

 

[Jelly Bean]

If we happen to play Brisbane in the GF at a packed MCG I’ll be very confident. The record will be in their heads now. Plus we’re better

I'd rather play them in a packed MCG on Prelim night, not GF. In a prelim against them, we would have 80k one-eyed screaming Collingwood supporters there at least. They will absolutely shrink to nothing on that night.

GF day we would probably be looking at only 30k Collingwood fans, 15-20k Brisbane fans, and the rest just general taggers on who go for the atmosphere not the teams.

 

[Gymnorhina tibic]

I've come around to enjoy King"s analysis and First Crack is a good show. I agree it's ours to lose but fmd we are good at losing GF"s

 

[Gone Critical]

For me its still a pretty even season and there are 4 real flag chances and Geel the outside threat. I wouldnt seperate the top 4 teams much but we are favorites.

Best summary may be "Pies are the team most likely to win the flag but there is at least twice as much chance we dont win it than we do". That statement matches with the $2.75 odds the bookies are offering on the Pies. Pretty tight price for mine. Would love to pull up the media comment around the flag from round 17 of the last 10 years to see what was said. You would find it very inaccurate. I am hopeful and we are a great chance but there is a long way to go and what happens against Port and Brissie in the next few weeks could easily change our standing. I have seen too many June July premiers who didnt go on, to think us anywhere near certainties.

The AFL fixturing also contributes. They care little about a fair or balanced fixturing. Having the top 4 finish the season with no statistical difference in their chances for a flag is stupid. This has been enhanced by the ridiculous finals bye which has greatly disadvantaged the QF winners. Means winning the flag is more about timing your run in finals than sustained superiority. In a season like this where the top 5 is very even this is even more true. Geelong come into it even more with the finals bye.

Just as an example of this here is the comparison of teams finishing on top compared to who won the flag for the last 10 seasons. 3rd place has won more flags than any other, 4. Team finishing on top has only won 3 of the last 10 flags

Table is the year, top team, weeks on top, premiers, premiers ladder spot after H&A

2013	Syd	6 weeks	Hawks	2nd
2014	Hawks	15 weeks	Hawks	1st
2015	Freo	20 weeks	Hawks	3rd
2016	Syd	3 weeks	Dogs	7th
2017	Adel	18 weeks	Rich	3rd
2018	Rich	15 weeks	WCE	2nd
2019	Geel	21 weeks	Rich	3rd
2020	Port	18 weeks (whole season)	Rich	3rd
2021	Melb	13 weeks	Melb	1st
2022	Geel	8 weeks	Geel	1st

 

[Lockyer24]

You’re jinxing creating this thread!

 

[Pistol Night]

You’re jinxing creating this thread!

Under the old regime. Fly has no time for past curses

 

[BEEG]

He was saying the same thing about Geelong the second half of last season. Well before most other experts

He is a good judge, but nobody can predict luck and you need a bit of it to win a GF, mostly with injuries. Nice challenge for us this weekend to prove how good we are.

We have this Geelong 2022 feeling about us this year. I fully expect to win the flag and anything else is a complete failure.

I’ve got a very 2011 feeling about this unfortunately for me. I was overseas for 5 weeks in 2011 missed most of our games where we blitz teams in 1 quarter.

Away overseas this year for the same time and we are doing nearly the same thing. Geelong and getting primed too

Love the way we are playing the last couple of weeks.

Some great points in here, honestly you can't ever get ahead of yourself when it's Collingwood.

Kingy is a good judge he does also like to jump on a good thing.

No one can predict the future and I'm not sure we win if a DeGoey or Moore goes down, need to stay fit and most of all manage players which like Geelong last year atm doing this very well.

2011 is interesting, I always remember being pretty concerned late in that year, everyone kept saying that we would just turn it on, Pies couldn't put 4 quarters together late that year we got figured out in my opinion and had alot of s**t going on in the background.

This team has confidence and they all play together that 2011 team had some big egos.

 

[Fat Jesus]

Eventually the luck will turn and we shall be winning more GF's than we have in the last 50+ years.
As we did in the first 60+ years of the competition.

 

[Pistol Night]

Eventually the luck will turn and we shall be winning more GF's than we have in the last 50+ years.
As we did in the first 60+ years of the competition.

This is the start of it mate