Preview Demons v Geelong- Official Preview

[Wonaeamirri33]

vs

Round six Melbourne team

B: James Frawley, Jared Rivers, Clint Bartram
HB: Tom McDonald, Colin Garland, Jack Grimes
C: Cale Morton, Brent Moloney, Jordie McKenzie
HF: Nathan Jones, James Sellar, Jeremy Howe
F: Colin Sylvia, Mitch Clark, Aaron Davey
FOLL: Mark Jamar, James Magner, Jack Trengove
I/C: Rohan Bail, Luke Tapscott, Matthew Bate, Lynden Dunn
EMG: Jamie Bennell, Ricky Petterd, Joel Macdonald
IN: Mitch Clark, James Frawley
OUT: Joel Macdonald, Jack Watts

MFC Website: Clark and Frawley return, Watts out

Geelong Cats

B: Matthew Scarlett, Harry Taylor, Josh Hunt
HB: Corey Enright, Tom Lonergan, Andrew Mackie
C: James Kelly, Allen Christensen, Joel Corey
HF: Mitch Duncan, James Podsiadly, Steven Motlop
F: Steve Johnson, Tom Hawkins, Mitch Brown
Foll: Trent West, Jimmy Bartel, Paul Chapman
I/C: Joel Selwood, Jesse Stringer, Billie Smedts, Cameron Guthrie
Emg: Shannon Byrnes, Tom Gillies, George Horlin-Smith

In: James Kelly, Mitch Brown
Out: Mathew Stokes (Ankle), Taylor Hunt (Soreness)

THE GAME: Simonds Stadium, Saturday, May 5, 1.45pm (AEST)

HEAD TO HEAD:

Overall: Played 208, Melbourne 83 wins, Geelong 123, 2 draws
Since 2000: Melbourne 6 wins, Geelong 14

LAST TIME: Geelong 37.11 (233) d Melbourne 7.5 (47), Round 19, at Simonds Stadium

No more need be said about that.

MEDIA

TV: Channel 7 (Victoria, SA, NT- 90 min delay, NSW- Live broadcast (starting 1.30pm, broadcast in WA), Southern Cross Tasmania (90 min delay) Fox Footy (rest of Australia- live)

RADIO: SEN, Triple M, Heart FM (Tas), 6PR

SUMMARY:

When you take into account the team's current winless position, and the way the Cats easily disposed of the Brisbane Lions last weekend, the Demons - and Mark Neeld - would be excused for feeling nervous on Saturday.

The Cats have failed to hit their straps so far this season, but looked something close to their best in the wet against Brisbane after battling past the Tigers a week earlier. Although they have lost twice so far, a combined losing margin of just 21 points is evidence that even when they are down, they can never be discounted.

But especially after last weekend, I really think we've got some kind of chance, albeit a long shot. And if there was ever a match where our playing group could be expected to surge out like the second coming of Krakatoa, it's this one. The events of July 30th last year absolutely demand it.

I hope our playing group have that firmly in mind too. Obviously the odds are against us, and that'll remain so for some time yet, but regardless, we should be out to send a message this weekend, as loud and as strident as we can possibly make it.

We were within single figures against St Kilda at every change last week, but inexperience at key moments in the final term proved very costly.

Notwithstanding that point, I think our performance against the Saints was substantially superior to that which Geelong put up against Brisbane (the conditions somewhat worse at the Gabba, but both were wet-weather affairs). They'll obviously be stronger at Kardinia. But the comparison is still very noteworthy. We were actually better than St Kilda in many areas of the game on Saturday night. Whereas Geelong were actually outdone by Brisbane in some respects. In spite of the score, which really doesn't reflect how that contest went.

Don't forget the Tigers ran them very close the weekend before that too. At Kardinia.

Here are some major stats from our performance last week which are particularly telling.

Contested possessions - 164. Yeah, that's right. That's almost THIRTY above our average until that night!

Tackle count- 102. FORTY-THREE above our previous average.

Total disposals- 338. FIFTY above our average before now.

Inside 50s- 44. TEN up on our average.

Clearances- 51. Up by TWELVE.

Disposal efficiency up 10%.

And a whopping 55 hitouts from the Russky. That, for example, beats anything Goldstein did for North when he was on fire last season.

This represents a mammoth advance across the board by us, in every area of the game. We are improving so fast it's incredible. So I'm really looking forward to seeing what we can produce at Kardinia this time around.

Over the last two weeks, our ability to win the contested ball, and our work in the clearances, has been equal with the upper echelons of the league. Over the last two weeks, we've actually done better than Geelong in both areas, in addition to superior tackle count. And over the course of the season so far, we've taken more contested marks.

Our clear superiority in the ruck, particularly with the Russky in this kind of form, is another substantial element in our favour.

It's absolutely vital this weekend that we pick up where we left off last week in all those areas, and are able to move the ball rapidly and efficiently inside 50, to give our forwards the absolute best chance possible against what is a strong defensive unit. If we end up bombing the ball in, it'll just come back out even faster. The Cats, though not the best they've been in recent years, are still as good on the counter as any team in the league - to name but one key element of their game.

I'm confident this game will be won or lost in the midfield.

WALKING WOUNDED:

Geelong forward Matthew Stokes (ankle) won't feature after being subbed off in the third quarter last weekend. However midfielder James Kelly (groin) will return, along with Mitch Brown, and veteran defender David Wojcinski (foot) is on the road back. Wojcinski has spent the past two weeks in the VFL following an interrupted pre-season. Travis Varcoe (foot), Daniel Menzel (knee), Dawson Simpson (back) and Nathan Vardy (hip) are out indefinitely.

Forward duo Mitch Clark (concussion) and James Frawley (calf) return after missing a week each. Big man Stef Martin has also returned to full training following a hip complaint while Liam Jurrah (wrist), Jordan Gysberts (ankle), James Strauss (leg) and Josh Tynan (foot) are not far off. Brad Green (finger) is one more week away with Neville Jetta (ankle) sidelined indefinitely and ruckman Max Gawn (knee) out for the season.

FORM:

Cats' Past Five:

Round 5: Win, 12.7 (79) - 4.17 (41) v Brisbane Lions, Gabba
Round 4: Win, 11.9 (75) - 9.11 (65) v Richmond, Simonds Stadium
Round 3: Loss, 16.18 (114) - 20.11 (131) v North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium
Round 2: Win, 14.8 (92) - 13.12 (90) v Hawthorn, MCG
Round 1: Loss, 15.11 (101) - 16.9 (105) v Fremantle, Patersons Stadium

Demons' Past Five:

Round 5: Loss, 10.6 (66) - 12.12 (84) v St Kilda, MCG
Round 4: Loss, 9.13 (67) - 13.10 (88) v Western Bulldogs, MCG
Round 3: Loss, 11.8 (74) - 20.13 (133) v Richmond, MCG
Round 2: Loss, 9.4 (58) - 25.16 (166) v West Coast, Patersons Stadium
Round 1: Loss, 11.12 (78) - 17.17 (119) v Brisbane Lions, MCG

WHO'S HOT:

Tom Hawkins - Hawkins kicked a career-best six goals in wet weather at the Gabba, outclassing Matt Maguire. Hawkins now leads the Coleman Medal race with 18 goals for the season.

Tom McDonald - He stood up in a huge way, restricting Saints skipper Nick Riewoldt to just two goals last weekend. McDonald, playing in only his sixth AFL game, was immense, and performed notably in the absence of the injured Frawley, who was a late withdrawal.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

ANALYSIS:

I think I'll start again from the beginning, taking the scenic route.

It's the easiest thing on earth to kick a man when he's down, and so many self-proclaimed 'experts' have had their way with us of late.

That's not to say that some of the criticism hasn't been well-earned, particularly based on our performances in the first three rounds, but it also says a lot about those arrogant so-called 'experts', who are falling over themselves to suggest things that they must surely have plucked out of their arses.

Like the superficial rubbish coming from Paul Roos, who accused Melbourne players of not trying on last week's On the Couch. He claims that the playing group has already destroyed one coaching career (that of Dean Bailey) and that it is "well on the way to doing the same to Mark Neeld."

So many asinine and breathtakingly stupid claims this week. Including all manner of bizarre and mindless 'predictions' about the outcome of this match.

Like so many other supporters around this board, I'm sure, I don't have any time for these kinds of moronic doomsayers. And we can be very proud of our effort against St Kilda.

By the way, for the aforementioned 'experts' who are either unaware or feigning ignorance, we went into the game minus our full back and full forward, with a key playmaker coming back from injury in a green substitute vest, our most exciting forward still a week away from his comeback game for Casey and a handful of promising younger players either injured or working away to improve their game in the VFL.

These are things that must be considered when looking at a young team devastated by external events and injury that is adapting to a brand new game plan. Nobody who's being honest either with themselves or with anyone else in talking about these things, can pretend otherwise.

And in spite of all that, as I say, again, we put in by far our strongest performance of the year for almost the full four quarters until a more experienced St. Kilda outfit rallied to score the last two goals.

We had more possessions than our opponents last week for the first time this year.

Amongst many impressive performances, we were well served by Nathan Jones, who silenced his critics in decisive fashion - those not living in denial, that is. He was inspirational, collecting 27 disposals, booting two important goals and adding huge passion to the midfield. Jack Grimes heralded his comeback to the team with a great 27 possession game.

And Aaron Davey showed encouraging signs of improvement.

We were first out of the blocks, with strong play from Brent Moloney and scored the game's first two goals. We soon lost the initiative to let the Saints in for a 9 point quarter time lead, but fought, dare I say it, demonically amid the wet conditions in the second term.

Halfway through the quarter, an Aaron Davey goal secured the lead and when Rohan Bail snapped truly, we had a 10-point advantage. Although the Saints steadied to take the lead into the main break, the scrap continued through the third quarter and well into the last.

Tell players like Jordie McKenzie and James Magner who hustled their opponents all night that they weren't trying and/or aren't somehow good enough to be worthy of recognition, and aren't capable of matching it with high-quality opposition. Tell it to Cale Morton and Clint Bartram, who played their best games in ages, or Mark Jamar, who absolutely murdered them in the ruck. Try telling it to Tom McDonald, with a handful of games under his belt, taking on one of the game's superstars in Nick Riewoldt.

Or Colin Garland, who beat his man with such regularity over and over again throughout the night, Jack Trengove, and Colin Sylvia, who both put up equally outstanding performances.

We have quality players, who are capable of major achievement for us into the future.

The game proved there is a light at the end of the tunnel, and that our team need to continue working hard at learning the new style of play.

____________

Now, about Jack Watts - who's been attacked up hill and down dale in the last day, in disgraceful and thoroughly undeserved fashion:

Quoting extracts from CFH's excellent comments earlier this week, he's not a wet weather player. Anyone who's watched him up to this point in his career knows that (excluding certain arrogant "experts" from outside our supporters and our club, who clearly haven't, of course). Had it been dry and he struggled then that would be fair enough, but his role last weekend didn't give him any room to move.

As the replay shows - and again, the outside "experts" obviously won't ever take the trouble to check for themselves - he had the football kicked onto his head numerous times, and it's harder to win it with that happening in wet conditions.

Aside from the fact that prior to this match, he had been consistently amongst our best over and over again since the start of last year, and up to this point, had played 42 consecutive first-team games, a longer sequence than any other Demons player but one.

PREDICTION:

While our form is on a very strong upward curve, obviously the Cats are huge favourites in this matchup, particularly down in Geelong. We've only beaten them once there since 1990 and the Cats supporters are expecting more of the same this weekend.

Many seem to think that somehow we're the same team that played that nightmare game last year. Not remotely true. Only 13 players of that side were part of our 22 against St Kilda.

Sure, Geelong have won the last seven encounters against the Demons by 75 points and as they showed in Brisbane last week, they thrive in the wet, miserable conditions expected this weekend.

But then again, the conditions weren't much different for us against St Kilda, a match in which, as I keep saying, we put up our best performance in many months. And I'm confident we'll continue to improve this week.

Anyone who seriously thinks it's going to be like last year again is either ignorant or stupid. Or both.

It certainly is a long shot. And maybe I'll look like a goose at the end of this, but there are certainly reasons to think we can match it with the Cats in this game, and I do think we can win, however unlikely it seems.

So I'll bloody well stick my neck out there and tip it that way.

Demons by 7.

 

[Biffinator]

thanks Wonna - another sterling preview. This is much more of a mental test than Round 1. Like you, crazily, I believe we can prevail against the Handbaggers.

 

[Franky_024]

Fantastic write up again Wonna. Love the optimism , as much as it would make my week and give the team immense confidence; Geelong are just an incredible unit and do whats required in the clinches to win; something that we as just starting to learn collectively.

Last fortnight against the bulldogs was a showing of a team on the rise and it was followed with a gutsy display against the saints and i'm hoping we show the same amount of intensity and desire this weekend. I'm tipping Geelong by about 4-5 goals but I feel if we get a bit of a run on and don't let the game blow out then it could be closer.

 

[Dory_77]

Nice write up Wona. I too am very skeptical that we can pull off a win, but nor do I think it'll be the shellacking many others are expecting. If they bring at least the same amount of effort and intensity this week as they did last week the boys could be in with a sniff.

 

[RandB]

Nice work Wonna.

This bit:

Aside from the fact that prior to this match, he had been consistently amongst our best over and over again since the start of last year, and up to this point, had played 42 consecutive first-team games, a longer sequence than any other Demons player but one.

The media have neglected this, rather going for the sensational aspect.

Considering he played in his first year (drafted underage as a tall) he hasn't done too badly. Neeld has obviously seen inadequacies in his game which need to be addressed but I don't see what all the fuss is about tbh.

We've had "senior" players dropped here and there a lot of fringe players in and out of the team, kids getting stints so why is Watts such a major issue?

Anyway, a win would be fantastic but I don't share your optimisim Wonna. We can still redeem ourselves with an honest effort though, having the book ends back will be good for our confidence.

We need to mature over the next 6 hard weeks - I think we will.

 

[Wonaeamirri33]

Thanks for the compliments again Comrades - obviously I was feeling pretty fired up when I wrote this too!

Fantastic write up again Wonna. Love the optimism, as much as it would make my week and give the team immense confidence

Mate, if we do somehow win, or run them close, I'll be out to melt certain parts of BF down to beaded glass with a blowtorch, 2009 style