Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?

[ItsAllAboutMe]

Imagine the shitfest that would see teams scrambling to finish ninth. Potential 7th/8th place teams might tank to grab pick one rather than bounce out of finals first week.

I refuse to believe that any team would try to not make finals simply to get a draft pick.

 

[ioppolo]

I refuse to believe that any team would try to not make finals simply to get a draft pick.

Is that because you've had to block out Carlton's 2002 onwards period?

 

[ioppolo]

Did you complain when Melbourne Chose Jack Watts over that tall Fijian Bloke back in 2008? Were you insulted? lol

From memory most fans were quite happy with the result all things considered, being a local boy and all.

 

[Freomaniac]

From memory most fans were quite happy with the result all things considered, being a local boy and all.

Funny thing you said that.

I got a couple of close eagles mates that talked about the lead up to the 2008 draft....

The rumours at the time was West coast had pick 2 and Narrowed it down to Dan Rich or nic nat.

I asked both of them who would they of wanted between the two. Both Said they wanted Nic Nat.

Funny thing is had Nic Nat was one day older, he would of been in the 2007 Draft. Probably would of went to Carlton or Demons. Who knows? West coast had pick 3 in 2007 in the Judd Trade and you would of got Nic Nat over Chris Masten

 

[fnerd]

The hawks of the 80s always played for unders

Old post I know but surely this myth has been debunked?

 

[BigBreakfast]

That's all well and good but nailing a cluster of earlyish picks in a few drafts remains the best predictor of sustained success.

You can say "the draft is a lottery" with regard to individual selections but having a bunch of picks, the earlier the better, still gives you the best chance of bringing through a core of 200-gamers around the same age.

Assuming you get the picks right, in the right draft and you have the right fitness, conditioning and coaching staff in place to develop the drafted talent. Gold Coast is in its third iteration of building through the draft and are yet to win a final.

Draft is one component, and I believe there should be two rounds of 9 to 18 teams picking therefore first 20 picks to the non finals teams then the 8th team kicks in. Pick 1 and 11 to the 18th team, 2 and 12 to the 17th etc.

Teams must have a strong off field and soft cap structure to develop players and incentivise them to stay.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Assuming you get the picks right, in the right draft and you have the right fitness, conditioning and coaching staff in place to develop the drafted talent. Gold Coast is in its third iteration of building through the draft and are yet to win a final.

I didn't say drafting well was a guarantee. I said you won't get far without it.

Teams must have a strong off field and soft cap structure to develop players and incentivise them to stay.

See above.

 

[BigBreakfast]

You see in NBA that a lottery certainly doesn’t stop tanking completely.

I would be all in favour of giving pick 1 to the team that finishes 9th and then reverse order to the team who finishes last and then reverse again.. Would remove all tanking and the teams that finish bottom would be getting 2x high picks instead of 1..

Pick 1 - 9th
Pick 2 - 10th
Pick 3 - 11th
Pick 10 - 18th
Pick 11 - 18th
Pick 12 - 17th
Pick 33 - 1st
Etc

But the worst team will always miss the elite talent. Bottom team should always have the best access to the top young player available in an equalisation model. Teams can always trade draft picks...

 

[BigBreakfast]

I didn't say drafting well was a guarantee. I said you won't get far without it.

See above.

Fair call. Always plays a part, only part of the narrative though. We have started to become competitive and come on down free agency and trade requests. We had none of these three years ago, no matter the bait. We managed the salary cap, kept core stars through off field strength (Russell, debt paid, improved facilities, better coaching, raised profile and membership) and now we are entering the destination club phase. 2015 official rebuild begins; 2021 (fingers crossed we make finals).

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Fair call. Always plays a part, only part of the narrative though.

Do I need to say it a third time?

I didn't say it was a silver bullet or the only factor.

I said drafting well, with several earlyish picks in consecutive or almost consecutive drafts, is the best predictor of success down the line.

I don't know what you mean by "the narrative".

We have started to become competitive and come on down free agency and trade requests. We had none of these three years ago, no matter the bait. We managed the salary cap, kept core stars through off field strength (Russell, debt paid, improved facilities, better coaching, raised profile and membership) and now we are entering the destination club phase. 2015 official rebuild begins; 2021 (fingers crossed we make finals).

If you get anywhere, you'll be able to look back and see that you nailed a bunch of earlyish draft picks. If those earlyish picks don't come off, then you probably won't be winning anything or even making the top four.

 

[BigBreakfast]

Do I need to say it a third time?

I didn't say it was a silver bullet or the only factor.

I said drafting well, with several earlyish picks in consecutive or almost consecutive drafts, is the best predictor of success down the line.

I don't know what you mean by "the narrative".

If you get anywhere, you'll be able to look back and see that you nailed a bunch of earlyish draft picks. If those earlyish picks don't come off, then you probably won't be winning anything.

You might find I liked and am supporting your stance, just adding meat to the bones. Sweet Jesus!

 

[juddy_Like]

There’s nothing really wrong with the theory of the draft. You finish last, you get the first pick of the round, win the flag, you get the last pick... rinse and repeat four times.

Where it’s gone wrong now is that the AFL has slaughtered/pimped out/ square peg into round hole, etc through FA compo, FS picks, academy’s, poor GC picks, etc that Round 2 is now in the mid20s instead of being Pick 19.

Whats also gone is the ‘rookie’ component of the rookie draft where you mined for the Cox’s, Priddis, Govs, etc. Now it’s just a salary dump, free a main list spot up list instead of giving a kid a go.

 

[WillHayward]

Current system seems to work pretty well imo.
Balance is about right.
No team is truly shithouse for long.

 

[Freomaniac]

If you love the game you don't tune out just because your team isn't going well. I was born 92 and only ever really saw bad times for Richmond as a kid. Still loved them to death.

If you're tuning out because your team is losing you were never a real supporter to begin with. Losing is no excuse to not back your team.

I am Born in 1987. Wasnt a Dockers fan when they 1st started in 1995. Didnt follow them until Late 2001-early 2002. So I didnt go through their Early years. Freo didnt make finals until 2003. So they spent 8 years from 1995-2002 building up a list.

I dont count 2004-5 ad rebuilding years under Chris Connolly. Freo contended foe final from 2003-07. 2007-09 was My 1st freo rebuild I have seen. Then Mark Harvey got us finals in 2010 got sacked in 2011 due to not making finals.

We then had the Ross Lyon finals era of 2012-15. Now we are in another Rebuild of 2016 onwards. 2019 and 2020 freo were contenders and nearly made finals in both years.

 

[Dazb86]

It takes some clubs too long. For instance it wouldn't surprise me to see North make the finals before Carlton.

 

[faible]

It takes some clubs too long. For instance it wouldn't surprise me to see North make the finals before Carlton.

That would be because Carlton stuffed something up if so, not that the model is inherently flawed.

We've seen Brisbane bounce pretty quickly after they put the right off-field parts in place then draft intelligently.

Gold Coast stuffed their initial build, and only in the last couple of years does it look like they've really got the right off-field people in place, and a solid draft strategy.

 

[Klem]

Yes. And yes or no is an answer.

 

[Freomaniac]

That would be because Carlton stuffed something up if so, not that the model is inherently flawed.

We've seen Brisbane bounce pretty quickly after they put the right off-field parts in place then draft intelligently.

Gold Coast stuffed their initial build, and only in the last couple of years does it look like they've really got the right off-field people in place, and a solid draft strategy.

Brisbane didn't turn it around quickly. Yes they went from bottom 4 in 2018 to top 2 in 2009.


But I have posted this before...... Brisbane had to rebuild since the end of 2014 when Michael Voss was sacked as coach then guys like polec, Yeo, karazenis and Sam Docherty were all traded out. Couple of those guys were traded less for what they are worth.


People forget Brisbanes 2018 season when they had only 5 wins. They should of got 7-9 wins that season as they lost a few narrow games by under a goal.

 

[Freomaniac]

Current system seems to work pretty well imo.
Balance is about right.
No team is truly shithouse for long.

You sure about that? Ok.... It's been a while since we had a team that went 15-20 years in a row not making finals but still....

 

[faible]

Brisbane didn't turn it around quickly. Yes they went from bottom 4 in 2018 to top 2 in 2009.


But I have posted this before...... Brisbane had to rebuild since the end of 2014 when Michael Voss was sacked as coach then guys like polec, Yeo, karazenis and Sam Docherty were all traded out. Couple of those guys were traded less for what they are worth.


People forget Brisbanes 2018 season when they had only 5 wins. They should of got 7-9 wins that season as they lost a few narrow games by under a goal.

You’re giving examples of a club that had their off-field house in disarray though. Once they got the other stuff in order, replenishing the playing list only took 2-3 drafts to really see meaningful improvements.

 

[LordLucifer]

I feel dirty for saying this but I liked David King's suggestion last year.

YOu have a normal first round like everyone knows but after that every club that has been outside of the 8 for 3 years or more gets a priority pick, so pick 19 would go to the club that has been out of the 8 the longest, pick 20 would go to the club that has been out of the 8 the second longest and so on.

So based on that we could have had a first round draft last year of

1. Brisbane
2. Fremantle
3. Carlton
4. North Melbourne
5. Fremantle
6. Collingwood
7. St Kilda
8. St Kilda
9. Western Bulldogs
10. Carlton
11. GWS
12. Adelaide
13. West Coast
14. Sydney
15. Brisbane
16. Western Bulldogs
17. Richmond
18. Brisbane
19. Gold Coast

and then straight afterwards it would be

20. Melbourne
21. Gold Coast
22. Brisbane
24. Carlton
25. St Kilda
26. Collingwood

or whatever the order is

and then continue on the draft from round 2 as normal.

I'd even take it one step further.

Bonus Round - picks 1-10 for the teams that did not play finals allocated in reverse ladder order like they do now.
First Round - picks 11-28 allocated in reverse ladder order like they do now.

With the non-finalists getting two early picks, they should be able to acquire some decent players every year if their recruiting people are capable of identifying talent. They can also use a pick or two to trade to one of the finalist clubs for a readymade established player if they wish. Either way, they are getting an instant injection of talent.

 

[LordLucifer]

First 20 picks should go to the teams who don't make the 8. Do it as a lottery to remove the incentive for teams to tank.

Yes to the double picks for non-finalists.

No to the lotteries, that will become a farce.

 

[Coaster2012]

Try following a team in the EPL where you are shit for 30 years without any hope of getting close to a title.

Literally.

Ever.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

How many years will it be before Adelaide are back in the finals?

If it's five years, does that support the idea that it takes too long to rebuild?

 

[Masotiger]

You could have as many picks as you like, but if the club as an entity is not strong, financial, well managed and vibrant, you'll never rebuild. Get the entity right first.

Richmond kept shooting itself in the foot for more than 2 decades until Gary March took over as president and went about assembling the right people in the right places and making eliminating the debt priority number 1, realising the football performance is a direct reflection of the state of the club. The playing list is the last piece of the jigsaw. Clubs can turnover a whole list in 3 or 4 years if they need to. One-third of Richmond's b2b premiership team came off rookie selections. Sure, it helps if you can land a gun or 2 in the draft, but you have to be able to develop them. If Dusty went pick 1 or 2 to Melbourne would he be the player he is today? Probably not.

If you want an insight as to what a well managed, vibrant club looks like have a read of Konrad Marshall's book "Yellow & Black" written after the 2017 premiership. Having access to early draft picks is great, but there's so much more involved to rebuild a club.