Good clubs don't spend too long around the bottom. Development and culture is way more important than drafting in talent. North won't take as long to rebuild as a few other clubs in recent times.
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Does it take too long for clubs to rebuild their lists?
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Good clubs don't spend too long around the bottom. Development and culture is way more important than drafting in talent. North won't take as long to rebuild as a few other clubs in recent times.
I honestly think Jarrad Grant had the talent required and Liam Jones has proven he had the talent required with his years at Carlton.
As a club we struggled to develop key position players and that's on the club more-so than Scott Clayton IMO.
Do you rate the North years under Scott ? Do you regard the rebuild as starting under Shaw?
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I think teams in general have gotten a lot better at managing their list age profiles such that they are perpetually competitive and never have less budget cap issues. With 18 clubs in the comp there is a lot of risk in intentionally fully bottoming out.
It's only those that were in need of new talent when GCS/GWS were brought into the comp that've been kicked to the gutter. With poor lists and no access to good talent to rebuild in those few years its been a slow drawn out process. Alot chose to grab existing players from other players (whether they were good or not..) to fill holes. That proved to be death by a thousand cuts.
eg:
- North were meandering around middle of the ladder and then decided to try to top-up with discarded/unwanted player from other clubs - that didnt work
- Carlton were 5-10 and coudln''t make it with the current list. Then drafted discarded slop from GWS.
- Hawks with no new talent through that era are now suffering because of it.
A lot of the names in the bottom 8 leading up to GWS's inclusion in that comp in 2012 are are in the best position now (richmond, dogs, dees, port, lions, freo) as they got the last bit of good talent before the void consumed them (GCS/GWS).
In general I think the wooden spooners are a lot better quality than ~5-10years ago.
It's only those that were in need of new talent when GCS/GWS were brought into the comp that've been kicked to the gutter. With poor lists and no access to good talent to rebuild in those few years its been a slow drawn out process. Alot chose to grab existing players from other players (whether they were good or not..) to fill holes. That proved to be death by a thousand cuts.
eg:
- North were meandering around middle of the ladder and then decided to try to top-up with discarded/unwanted player from other clubs - that didnt work
- Carlton were 5-10 and coudln''t make it with the current list. Then drafted discarded slop from GWS.
- Hawks with no new talent through that era are now suffering because of it.
A lot of the names in the bottom 8 leading up to GWS's inclusion in that comp in 2012 are are in the best position now (richmond, dogs, dees, port, lions, freo) as they got the last bit of good talent before the void consumed them (GCS/GWS).
In general I think the wooden spooners are a lot better quality than ~5-10years ago.
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Scott taking that list to 2 prelim finals was a minor miracle IMO. I think he bungled the list though and the hack job that Shaw did to the list was probably neccesary for the club moving forward. They should turn the corner fairly quickly. I have more faith in them turning it around than some of the other perennial cellar dwellars in the league.
Not so sure about that.
North Melbourne targetted the drafts before expansion to get Ziebell, Cunnington etc so they were prepared for expansion. That's when Richmond were built too with Dusty, Cotchin, Riewoldt. And the Tigers picked great players out of Gold Coast like Prestia, Caddy (via Geel), Lynch.
Melbourne only really had Gawn left from pre expansion. As every draft pick around him from 2007-2009 went to ruin (or got old in the case of Jetta).
Melbourne's big guns came from 2012 -2015. Viney, Hogan (which in fairness came from Scully then became May) in 2012 tied up in mini drafts and so on. Then Salem, Petracca, Oliver post expansion.
The Dogs - Bont, Macrae, Stringer - came in the 2012-2013 just after expansion drafts. With some help from father sons in Libba and Hunter.
Wines 2012, although Port are more of a mixed bag of the old and new.
Brisbane's young talent have all best post expansion. Same with Freo.
There's an argument to be made that Hawthorn stayed too long at the top due to expansion. No other super team got the top up they needed around 2010-2011 that would've had them in better shape for 2013-2015. If that's the case then maybe Hawthorn will now stay longer at the bottom because they were artificially up too long. Although that's hard to really decipher because the Hawks went hard at trading to stay up.
Freo might've stayed too long at the top too and crashed hard on the way down because of a lack of talent added in 2010-2012. Although with Freo that happened because they picked the wrong guys and had terrible injury luck as much as the draft.
North maybe the same. They stayed up a long time under Brad Scott. Then crashed super hard because there was a gaping huge hole in the 24-27 year olds on their list.
Richmond got the best high end talent from 06-09 though. The Dogs from 10-13. The Demons from 12-15. Who comes next?
Brisbane with Hipwood, McCluggage, Rayner, Berry, Bailey etc still have a great claim. Freo had something going with Brayshaw, Cerra, Serong, Young but there might be a ceiling there and losing Cerra hurts. Carlton are still in consideration with Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Walsh and likely adding Cerra. North will add their names to this list in the next 24 months. Grabbing a bunch of elite players in a short form of time is still the best strategy.
Melbourne's talent acquisition from 2012-2015 turned it around pretty quickly to 2 finals wins and a prelim in 2018. Should've played finals in 17 as well. That's the quick turnaround. The journey to the flag does take longer, even if the bounce back from 19 was fast.
The Dogs and Hawks have pinched flags at that similar stage to the Dees in 18 when the young talent comes on quickly, the veterans get rejuvenated and a coach has a tactical edge and finds useful role players to do the job. The Saints and Cats of around 04/05 are super teams that got pretty close too.
Every team should be thinking lets get a few stars in the draft then push hard. A flag right away is very unlikely but some level of success is possible.
The aim should be to get some young stars in the draft but don't get overly attached to draft pick after draft pick. Sos at Carlton tried to recreate GWS by getting as many picks as possible. Really all he needed was Curnow, McKay, Weitering and Walsh. After that he should've been trying to find guys who could help them win via trades. His focus on trades was high risk/reward types in McGovern and all the GWS guys looking for more gems rather than just solid role players.
Melbourne a basket case in 2012/2013 - prelim in 18. Richmond a rabble in 2009, 3 consecutive finals series in 13-15.
The next part which is waiting for those young stars to become leaders, replacing old veterans, tinkering with the game plan and finding new role players often takes time. Even Clarko and the Hawks which is the best coach with the best players took 4 years to get back to a grand final and 5 to win it. The Dogs are on a similar path with Bevo and Bont. Richmond took a fair journey in 14, 15 and 16 to produce 2017. The Dees had everything go wrong faster in 2019 and everything go absolutely as well as it could this year to accelerate that process, which is to say we haven't been better we've just been luckier. The Eagles were a little older but still made 2015 on the back of Gaff, Shuey, Nic Nat, Yeo, Sheppard, Sheed, Cripps then came back to win it with more seasoning.
Gun midfielders make for strength as Viney, Petracca & Oliver demonstrate.
A good run with injury certainly helps.
Viney was drafted in 2012, Petracca in 2014 & Oliver 2015 - we are looking at the 2021 draft. It takes time even when you are unfortunate enough to get early draft picks.
A good run with injury certainly helps.
Viney was drafted in 2012, Petracca in 2014 & Oliver 2015 - we are looking at the 2021 draft. It takes time even when you are unfortunate enough to get early draft picks.
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I disagree. Nailing early picks is key.
Then you have to develop them.
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in 2019, demons finished 17th as they were ravaged with injuries
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Sure, they're not mutually exclusive.
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No kidding.
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you sure about that?
- May 3, 2007
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Salem, Petracca, Brayshaw and oliver all played in the 2021 AFL grand final?
the interesting thing is trading the pick which secured a king brother for May, who took quite a while to get to the level
‘it will be interesting watching the progress of hawks Roos and crows as they didn’t intentionally bottom out. Only north have really bottomed out with sub 80% percentage years.
in fact it’s the pies who have bottomed out
Melbourne had sub 80% percentage in 2007-08-09 and again in 2012-13-14-15 and a single year in 2019
it’s a measure of supporter hell. For all our angst this has happened once to the hawks sine the sixties..in 2004
using the 80% cut off, until melbourne achieving a premiership six years after 2015, no team with consecutive sub 80% seasons has won within seven years, and such as port are on 9 years. (2011-12) tigers won 2017-19-20 seven years after 2009-10 bulldogs and hawks didn’t bottom out since 2004 (hawks just one year) eagles 2018 just one sub 80% year in 2010 and I don’t think the cats or swans have bottomed out at all
it’s a measure of supporter hell. For all our angst this has happened once to the hawks sine the sixties..in 2004
using the 80% cut off, until melbourne achieving a premiership six years after 2015, no team with consecutive sub 80% seasons has won within seven years, and such as port are on 9 years. (2011-12) tigers won 2017-19-20 seven years after 2009-10 bulldogs and hawks didn’t bottom out since 2004 (hawks just one year) eagles 2018 just one sub 80% year in 2010 and I don’t think the cats or swans have bottomed out at all
- Apr 18, 2005
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I think that at the end of 2020 things were very frustrating. Paul Gardner had at one point publicly criticised the group and we had just had two years of no finals after a promising 2018 finish. By that stage it was the 7th year of the rebuild from under Roos which had yielded one finals performance. I think we were entitled to be frustrated with Goodwin.
Players also looked stale. McDonald had spoken to the club and they were open to a trade, but he had no suitors. Neal Bullen and Spargo were looking like not having much of a future. Brayshaw was touted as trade bait, and Viney was causing issues with his foot injury and even had Geelong on his tail. It was looking grim and rightly so.
I think to have the year we had was really reinforced by the players just wanting to take a stand and to stop being pathetic. It was also some smart and strategic improve from Goodwin re our style. We stopped getting sucked into inside contests and started to utilise Langdon and Brayshaw as traditional wingers. We stopped getting in the way of one another on the inside. This was actually really important because opposition would just feed the ball outside and we’d stand and watch.
Our forward line was woeful. No defensive pressure and not much in the way of a small forward. That changed with Pickett and then Spargo and ANB playing a pressure forward role. All of a sudden the ball started staying in. McDonald turned it around remarkably, luckily as Brown was out of touch early after being injured. All this improvement forward of the ball allowed our backline to stay settled and we could exploit their strength.
The one player that I think is most improved is Salem. He went from being a good half back flanker to an elite one. Doesn’t lose contests, doesn’t miss targets, presses up high when we attack but gets back to defend when we needed it.
Coming into the year we had all the players in the right positions, but we just had to make it work. The boys finally decided losing was shit.
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Adelaide have scraped in just above your 80% threshold, probably thanks to Tex Walker's career best season out of the blue.
But I reckon by releasing Brad Crouch, then Lynch, Talia and Jake Kelly they are very much intentionally bottoming out, even if they bring in Dawson this year. They wound Gibbs up even if they kept his list spot (probably had to wind him up to be fair). And Dave Mackay played 18 games and wasn't renewed.
Youngest list in the comp this year and their over 26's for next year is Sloane, Walker, Smith, Seedsman, L. Brown, Laird, Crouch, McAdam, ROB. That's very young. Particularly when it's a team that made the grand final in 2017, it's not like they were coming from a low talent base of senior players. 1 ruck, 1 key forward, a couple of defenders and a decent midfield core. Not a lot in the 23-25 either. Keays, Doedee, Milera.
If they were trying to achieve the best possible ladder position next year they'd be either keeping Talia or chasing a mature replacement so they had depth, probably looking to do the same with a key forward or at least a Lynch type veteran forward, keeping Kelly and looking for another mature body or two for the half forward/midfield depth.
I'm not saying they are tanking or anything, but I think they're plan for 2022 is more games in to the kids and a top 7 or so draft pick that either gets them a good young player or goes elsewhere for a ready made option. They're wisely using their cap space this year on Dawson but I think they'll be even more aggressive next year. Or if not aggressive then diversify and look at multiple imports.
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It generally seems like it roughly takes 7-8 years to complete a rebuild from start to premiership.
I base that off of:
Melbourne - Rebuild began with the Roos appointment at the end of 2013, won the premiership in the eighth season.
Richmond - Rebuild began roughly end of 2009 with Hardwick’s appointment, won the premiership in the eight season.
West Coast - Rebuild began after the 2008 season, played in a GF in the 7th season, won the premiership in the 10th.
Bulldogs - Rebuild began at the end of 2014, won a premiership in 2016 history suggests they weren’t ready to consistently contend at that point. Returned to GF in 2021, the seventh season.
Adelaide - Rebuild began after 2010 (McLeod, Goodwin, Edwards, Burton, Hentschel retiring), played GF in 2017, the 7th season.
Obviously it all depends on what assets you had to begin with, but 7-8 years seems to be the rough average. Which makes sense because if you hit the pointy end of the draft for 3 years at the start of your rebuild then those players are in their mid 20s and in their prime.
Of clubs that have had repeated top four finishes in that time (I’ve left Geelong out as they’re somewhat of an anomaly the way they’ve elected to continually “reload” with older talent) it seems teams tend to spend on average 4-5 years at the top once they get there.
Richmond: 4 seasons (2017-2020)
GWS: 3 out of 4 seasons (2016-2019)
West Coast: 2 out of 4 seasons (2015-2018)
Hawthorn: 5 seasons (2011-2015)
Sydney: 4 out of 5 seasons (2012-2016)
So it seems that teams who are able to stay at the top can generally do so for 4-5 years.
Now all this assumes that you are a well run club who nails your rebuild and maintains the list well once you get to the top, but to me if the ratio is 7-8 years of building to spend 4-5 years at the very top that’s about right IMO.
Obviously I know there are countless examples of clubs who’s rebuilds stall and they have to start again, and clubs who get to the top for a year but can’t maintain it but frankly that’s a good thing. It should be incredibly difficult to win AFL flags and consistently play prelim finals, and therefore there should be lots of failures.
I base that off of:
Melbourne - Rebuild began with the Roos appointment at the end of 2013, won the premiership in the eighth season.
Richmond - Rebuild began roughly end of 2009 with Hardwick’s appointment, won the premiership in the eight season.
West Coast - Rebuild began after the 2008 season, played in a GF in the 7th season, won the premiership in the 10th.
Bulldogs - Rebuild began at the end of 2014, won a premiership in 2016 history suggests they weren’t ready to consistently contend at that point. Returned to GF in 2021, the seventh season.
Adelaide - Rebuild began after 2010 (McLeod, Goodwin, Edwards, Burton, Hentschel retiring), played GF in 2017, the 7th season.
Obviously it all depends on what assets you had to begin with, but 7-8 years seems to be the rough average. Which makes sense because if you hit the pointy end of the draft for 3 years at the start of your rebuild then those players are in their mid 20s and in their prime.
Of clubs that have had repeated top four finishes in that time (I’ve left Geelong out as they’re somewhat of an anomaly the way they’ve elected to continually “reload” with older talent) it seems teams tend to spend on average 4-5 years at the top once they get there.
Richmond: 4 seasons (2017-2020)
GWS: 3 out of 4 seasons (2016-2019)
West Coast: 2 out of 4 seasons (2015-2018)
Hawthorn: 5 seasons (2011-2015)
Sydney: 4 out of 5 seasons (2012-2016)
So it seems that teams who are able to stay at the top can generally do so for 4-5 years.
Now all this assumes that you are a well run club who nails your rebuild and maintains the list well once you get to the top, but to me if the ratio is 7-8 years of building to spend 4-5 years at the very top that’s about right IMO.
Obviously I know there are countless examples of clubs who’s rebuilds stall and they have to start again, and clubs who get to the top for a year but can’t maintain it but frankly that’s a good thing. It should be incredibly difficult to win AFL flags and consistently play prelim finals, and therefore there should be lots of failures.
Melbourne's initial rebuild from 07-12 came at a time when recruiting athletes instead of footballers was the trend. Development was also a problem, I think nev Jetta Was an example we are extremely lucky Roos resurrected his career but I think it was mainly some poor drafting. When roos came in the mantra was to bring in competitors. That's why we started to bring in players like Petracca, Brayshaw Oliver real in and under types. It actually started to get problematic, us supporters use to joke about the amount of inside mids. In 17-18 Melbourne would overpowered lower rank teams but the best teams would easily exploit this. Anyway I digress I think getting it right in the draft over 3 or 4 years and then start to looking at trading in players to fill needs. So overall I think it's about a 6 or 7 year process.
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****en elite analysis.
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I wouldn’t say we’re tanking either, yes we could rise up the ladder quickly if we kept guys like Talia, Lynch and Crouch, but I think our ceiling would probably be capped at a semi final elimination.
Clearing out and allowing the young kids to develop, and yes, also getting a few more high draft picks, gives us a chance to hopefully contend around 2025-26. But we definitely are playing to win, the R23 game is evidence of that.
Name a club that has done it better the last 30 years?
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