Does the AFL have a blowout problem?

[Makeshift Park]

Who wants to watch a sport where there’s a 1-in-9 chance you’ll actually see a genuinely competitive contest?

This week, just three games finished with a margin under four goals.

I'd love to see some of the AFL's internal engagement data from the past fortnight.

Because from a viewer's perspective, it’s been dire. You can’t build suspense out of nothing, and there’s only so much the media can do to pretend a blowout is interesting.

Right now, we’ve got:

• 4 genuine flag contenders
• 5 others who can put up a fight most of the time
• And about 7 teams who are just plain dogshit

Sure, every season has its cellar dwellers. But if 7 out of 18 teams are uncompetitive most weeks - and if only 1-3 out of 9 games each round are even remotely close - punters are going to stop watching, and that'll have commercial consequences.

Whatever else you want to say about them, the AFL does care about their bottom line. If the next few rounds are anything like the last couple, you’d have to think it’ll start hurting them.

So, what’s the actual solution?

Curious what others think.

 

[bzparkes]

Talent pool is simply too thin. Sure, you had bad teams in the past but it was one or 2 at most.

Now, there's multiple huge thumpings every week.

Adding a 19th team will simply make it worse.

AFL simply has to stop wasting money on dumb crap and use it to properly develop talent pathways in all states.

As an example, Queensland, in the last 3 drafts, will have produced around 6 top 10 draft picks.

WA has only had 11 since 2015.

Good for the Qld clubs, as they're academy tied. Shit for the rest of the states.

 

[archereleven]

The AFL have come up with a revolutionary system to elevate bottom teams up the ladder and level the playing field -

Its called 'equalisation'

I'm not sure how it works, but I'll be sure to let you know when I see it...

 

[Hamingja]

They do front end the season quite a bit with the fixtures to generate interest.

If you had a fair draw instead of manipulating it for $$$ it would help.

 

[TheKanga]

This year has been particularly bad for regular floggings every week.
The rich clubs have a monopoly on the league.

 

[Billy ray]

Use percentage to determine wildcard places.
Ie top 6 automatically in finals.
Next 4 teams with highest percentage are 4 wildcard teams who play elimination finals to get final two places in final 8.

May stem the smashings

 

[the harry]

Use percentage to determine wildcard places.
Ie top 6 automatically in finals.
Next 4 teams with highest percentage are 4 wildcard teams who play elimination finals to get final two places in final 8.

May stem the smashings

Don't you increase your percentage by winning by more, relative to the opposition's score? Sounds like a smashing incentive

 

[PenfoldsFan]

Use percentage to determine wildcard places.
Ie top 6 automatically in finals.
Next 4 teams with highest percentage are 4 wildcard teams who play elimination finals to get final two places in final 8.

May stem the smashings

What if teams in that second group of 4 have played WC or NM twice and have a artificially high % as a result?
You could have, using the current ladder positions, WB or Haeks playing Carlton and get another smashing.

 

[Billy ray]

Don't you increase your percentage by winning by more, relative to the opposition's score? Sounds like a smashing incentive

Incentive also to NOT get smashed

 

[Billy ray]

What if teams in that second group of 4 have played WC or NM twice and have a artificially high % as a result?
You could have, using the current ladder positions, WB or Haeks playing Carlton and get another smashing.

Well play everyone once.
Or
Double up games worth 2 percentage points

 

[Makeshift Park]

Ran the numbers over the past five seasons worth of match result data to confirm my suspicions that yes, its a problem, and yes its been getting consistently worse every season.


You'd expect 2025's plotpoint will reach a bit higher yet before the season is over.

 

[Cleric]

Talent pool is simply too thin. Sure, you had bad teams in the past but it was one or 2 at most.

Now, there's multiple huge thumpings every week.

Adding a 19th team will simply make it worse.

AFL simply has to stop wasting money on dumb crap and use it to properly develop talent pathways in all states.

As an example, Queensland, in the last 3 drafts, will have produced around 6 top 10 draft picks.

WA has only had 11 since 2015.

Good for the Qld clubs, as they're academy tied. Shit for the rest of the states.

I dont agree.
A number of clubs have decided to do full rebuilds.
West Coast, North and Richmond have all bottomed out deliberately to rebuild from the draft.
Hawthorn and Adelaide did the same thing, with access to the same draft pool, and are now playing finals.
Geelong and Collingwood on the other hand have opted not to bottom out and rebuild, and are still playing finals.

You also have to accept that some of the blow-outs has been top team against top team. The Suns destroyed Brisbane, so does that mean Brisbane has a talent issue?
The Crows flogged Sydney, but does Sydney have a talent issue?

Essendon has been smashed by injuries, so is their big losses due to talent on their list or injuries?

Other teams like Port are playing below their capabilities due to injuries and having a team disillusioned with the coach.

I tend to think that the way football is played now means that good teams can score very quickly, and if a team is 20% down that can mean a much bigger margin than previously.

 

[Dazb86]

Just a result of the 6-6-6 rule. It's fine.

 

[Cleric]

Just a result of the 6-6-6 rule. It's fine.

Yeah, I'm more inclined to believe its the result of something like that and not talent.
Everyone screams out for faster flowing, high scoring games and the minute it happens people complain.

 

[Makeshift Park]

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Who wants to watch a sport where there’s a 1-in-9 chance you’ll actually see a genuinely competitive contest?

This week, just three games finished with a margin under four goals.

I'd love to see some of the AFL's internal engagement data from the past fortnight.

Because from a viewer's perspective, it’s been dire. You can’t build suspense out of nothing, and there’s only so much the media can do to pretend a blowout is interesting.

Right now, we’ve got:

• 4 genuine flag contenders
• 5 others who can put up a fight most of the time
• And about 7 teams who are just plain dogshit

Sure, every season has its cellar dwellers. But if 7 out of 18 teams are uncompetitive most weeks - and if only 1-3 out of 9 games each round are even remotely close - punters are going to stop watching, and that'll have commercial consequences.

Whatever else you want to say about them, the AFL does care about their bottom line. If the next few rounds are anything like the last couple, you’d have to think it’ll start hurting them.

So, what’s the actual solution?

Curious what others think.

And Many more to come in the next few weeks. Thing is this year is the exception. Last year there were many close games. Ladder position changed a lot drastically with one win for example. I like the thrashings this season as it was like the old days. This year we've seen teams start fast im the first qtr or teams having big quarter or quarters like gws and Geelong piling on 9 3rd qtr goals recently and demons kicking 10. I like the higher scoring as In recent times there were too many low scoring games. Still get them just not as much.

 

[BigVic]

There is disparity with the draw right now. Cats with an easy ride to the flag Equalisation has failed.

Losing interest in the game I used to watch weekly

 

[banzai]

There is disparity with the draw right now. Cats with an easy ride to the flag Equalisation has failed.

Losing interest in the game I used to watch weekly

Geelong don't really have an easy ride to the flag, Brisbane should win out and keep them from the top 2, in which case Brisbane will come into clear favourites and Adelaide will be 2nd favs going into finals (unless Collingwood take Adelaides top 2 spot).

The game is getting hard to watch though. Geelong are paying $1.01 next week ffs, Adelaide $1.02 on the road.....

 

[Makeshift Park]

Thing is this year is the exception.

Not sure what the trend is in relation to close games, but when it comes to thrashings, there have been more each passing season for the past five years.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Geelong don't really have an easy ride to the flag, Brisbane should win out and keep them from the top 2, in which case Brisbane will come into clear favourites and Adelaide will be 2nd favs going into finals (unless Collingwood take Adelaides top 2 spot).

The game is getting hard to watch though. Geelong are paying $1.01 next week ffs, Adelaide $1.02 on the road.....

But look at who they're playing. So they should be that price. I know what you're saying though.

 

[banzai]

Talent pool is simply too thin. Sure, you had bad teams in the past but it was one or 2 at most.

Now, there's multiple huge thumpings every week.

Adding a 19th team will simply make it worse.

AFL simply has to stop wasting money on dumb crap and use it to properly develop talent pathways in all states.

As an example, Queensland, in the last 3 drafts, will have produced around 6 top 10 draft picks.

WA has only had 11 since 2015.

Good for the Qld clubs, as they're academy tied. Shit for the rest of the states.

There is still a salary cap though, I get that QLD players may stay for less but still GCs cap is meant to be tight, surely other clubs are offering Leo Lombard big money already, the GC have 2 more top 5 picks this year. Do the same again, there's no way they can pay them all really high money this early.

The talent is way too thin for 18 teams though, once bad/average teams get injuries it gets ugly quite quickly. Once we go to 19, it will become like AFLW in terms of how uneven the comp is.

The AFL won't change anything until they cop a big hit in the TV deal.

 

[beez]

Ran the numbers over the past five seasons worth of match result data to confirm my suspicions that yes, its a problem, and yes its been getting consistently worse every season.

View attachment 2385437
You'd expect 2025's plotpoint will reach a bit higher yet before the season is over.

Nominally speaking?

Obviously you're going to show a chart that takes into account the increase in matches since 2023.

 

[Makeshift Park]

Nominally speaking?

Obviously you're going to show a chart that takes into account the increase in matches since 2023.

That's a fair shout. Confess I didn't think that hard about it before I pulled the numbers.

For balance, here you go - a percentage based chart, with a corresponding drop in the number of close (ie one goal or less) games this year.

We're gonna need a massive amount of close ones in the final three rounds for the percentage of games decided by six points or less to reach the level of the last two years.

 

[Golumless]

Probably more coincidence then actual problem. Seeing this has been the first year in a long time that's stratified the way it has. Equally it probably corrects itself next year, as Sydney will likely improve, Port and Melbourne could with new coaching, Saints if they keep NWM are starting to show a bit of character etc. Equally, one or two top eight sides won't play as well next year (Collingwood/Geelong for being old, Adelaide/Fremantle/Gold Coast for spiking this year etc).

 

[The Terrible Thinker]

The AFL have come up with a revolutionary system to elevate bottom teams up the ladder and level the playing field -

Its called 'equalisation'

I'm not sure how it works, but I'll be sure to let you know when I see it...

...but its not administered evenly from team to team. I'm not going into specifics because it will upset our feline friends down the south west of Melbourne.