Autopsy Done by the Demons by 50 points

[Dubai Quacker]

On reflection, I reckon there were a few factors to our loss:

1. We came off two easy wins and weren’t able to switch on the from the start and had forgotten a little bit what it takes once when the game is on line (ill discipline, falling away in the last).

2. Melbourne were up for this game. We have to remember that they were favourites when we beat them at the G in finals last year. They would have come prepared to not make the same mistakes again, and they didn’t.

3. Their list is a little more progressed than ours. I think Horse was right in the presser to note their depth of AA players and the gap with ours. I won’t say we can’t win this year, because I thought that last year and then we really turned in on - but we are away from being able to play to our potential right through the year.

4. We didn’t kick straight.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

I’d never heard of umpire Hayden Gavine before Sunday.

But he’s the bloke that kept awarding 50 for dissent every time we looked surprised at his stupid decisions.

Or, in one case, “stood up aggressively”.

Gavine thus joins Stevic and Gianfagna in the AFL Umpiring Hall of Shame.

Chances are we’ll get all three when we play the Bravedogs.

 

[bedford]

I’d never heard of umpire Hayden Gavine before Sunday.

But he’s the bloke that kept awarding 50 for dissent every time we looked surprised at his stupid decisions.

Or, in one case, “stood up aggressively”.

Gavine thus joins Stevic and Gianfagna in the AFL Umpiring Hall of Shame.

Chances are we’ll get all three when we play the Bravedogs.

Ever heard of Scott Jeffrey !

 

[Banyo Bloods]

I remember one of our undisciplined games where Hall gave away 100 metres and we got
done.

It’s not a good sign when we start to lose our composure.

It’s actually pretty rare.

For me it stands to reason that the players were feeling particularly hard done by with the decisions following the effort.

No excuse for it just not something you see often from a proud leader led team.

 

[Ticky009]

I remember one of our undisciplined games where Hall gave away 100 metres and we got
done.

It’s not a good sign when we start to lose our composure.

It’s actually pretty rare.

For me it stands to reason that the players were feeling particularly hard done by with the decisions following the effort.

No excuse for it just not something you see often from a proud leader led team.

Oh damn. I remember that game. Walked us what felt like the entire length of the field.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Ever heard of Scott Jeffrey !

Ah yes.

He’s a life member of said Hall of Shame.

But ol’ Umpire Gavine would’ve been that kid that runs to the teacher crying every time another child pulls a funny face.

 

[mtooler]

Buddy had a ripping game and showed he can still lift the team when the rest were flat, they didn't go with him.

 

[Mister B]

I remember one of our undisciplined games where Hall gave away 100 metres and we got
done.

It’s not a good sign when we start to lose our composure.

It’s actually pretty rare.

For me it stands to reason that the players were feeling particularly hard done by with the decisions following the effort.

No excuse for it just not something you see often from a proud leader led team.

Remember it well. Once again though, the initial free and the first 50 were absolute bullshit and Hall understandably blew up to give away the second 50.

 

[BloodySwan]

Its not that, it's 3 contested possessions and 0 tackles. He just didn't bring the competitive and defensive side of his game that he needs to get going.

it feels like we haven't been playing Warner in the centre as much as we did last year? I agree he isn't bringing the same but it also feels like we've moved his position

 

[Dubai Quacker]

Remember it well. Once again though, the initial free and the first 50 were absolute bullshit and Hall understandably blew up to give away the second 50.

Irony:

* deck Brent Staker and break his jaw: free kick*.

* question an umpires decision: 100m + free kick.



* yes, yes I know - he subsequently got suspended. But that’s after the game. If it happened in a GF, dissent incurs a heavier penalty than breaking a blokes jaw.

 

[Mister B]

Irony:

* decking Brent Staker and breaking his jaw: free kick.

* questioning an umpires decision: 100m + free kick.

While what he did to Staker was not on, it is yet another example of an umpire not doing their job and penalising a player who was repeatedly holding the forward. Had the umpire done his job and penalised Staker for the constant holding, you wonder whether Hall would have ever got to the point of decking him.

 

[BloodySwan]

On expected score, you won't see Melbourne kick 21.8 again this year, I doubt that accuracy will be repeated more than a handful of times.

I remember when we lost to Essendon last year and they kicked 15.5 and were never that accurate again.

I remember beating Geelong, kicking 17.5, and guess what, we were never that accurate again.

The reason why expected score is useful is because accuracy tends to even out, and missing shots close to goal is better for the future than kicking goals from the boundary.

If we played the demons tomorrow they wouldn't kick 21.8, they would probably still win, but Melbourne won't replicate that accuracy.

You give Gulden a shot at goal and he will nail it more than he misses. His average is higher than most players.

Saying the accuracy will average out is incorrect. Some players are better than others at kicking, some teams are better than others as well.

Last week Swans kicked 17.16 and Demons kicked 13.4. The previous week we kicked 16.14 but Demons kicked 17.13.

Performances this season show Swans accuracy at goal is poor but Demons is going strong.

Adding tweet, Melbourne are currently the most accurate team in the comp.

 

[Kapers]

You give Gulden a shot at goal and he will nail it more than he misses. His average is higher than most players.

Saying the accuracy will average out is incorrect. Some players are better than others at kicking, some teams are better than others as well.

Last week Swans kicked 17.16 and Demons kicked 13.4. The previous week we kicked 16.14 but Demons kicked 17.13.

Performances this season show Swans accuracy at goal is poor but Demons is going strong.

Adding tweet, Melbourne are currently the most accurate team in the comp.

But it does even out? It's one of the most stable stats in the afl since data has been measured?
Yeah Gulden is more likely to nail a shot, but Hayward is more likely to miss. I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of how probability works in relation to expected score. I would be willing to bet a lot of money that Melbourne's accuracy will go down over the year and Hawthorn's will go up.

 

[Kolah]

The fact that he was our best forward doesn’t alter the fact that we lost badly.

The problem is Buddy IS our best forward when he plays because the other forwards don’t play as well as they do when Buddy doesn’t play. We need to play Buddy where he can play a more team-oriented role. There, I’ve said it too.


On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[BloodySwan]

But it does even out? It's one of the most stable stats in the afl since data has been measured?
Yeah Gulden is more likely to nail a shot, but Hayward is more likely to miss. I think there's a fundamental misunderstanding of how probability works in relation to expected score. I would be willing to bet a lot of money that Melbourne's accuracy will go down over the year and Hawthorn's will go up.

It doesn't always even out, there will be a bell curve. Melbourne are statistically high and we are just behind the pack.

I checked the stats for last year, the average accuracy across the league was 58.9% - yet 12 teams were "below average" because there were a few teams with high accuracy and the bulk was just below 58.9%

Some teams are better shots for goal and Melbourne are one of them

 

[caesar88]

Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

26

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

is going to be a walk-up Legend in the hall of fame by the time his career is done. It's ******* insane that he is 25 years old.

 

[bedford]

Buddy had a ripping game and showed he can still lift the team when the rest were flat, they didn't go with him.

He got destroyed by May

 

[The King!]

He got destroyed by May

no he didn't

 

[Dubai Quacker]

no he didn't

The truth is somewhere in the middle.

 

[bedford]

no he didn't

Again

 

[sataris]

We were 6 points down with 5 more scoring shots in the third.
If we were as accurate as Melbourne we would of built up a 20 point lead.
Was definitely not over.

They absolutely blitzed them and from there onwards it was all game management for them, with a lot of s**t kicking from the swans.

They were never going to win after giving up 6 goals in the first quarter.

 

[anotherletdown]

Speaking from experience, I can tell you, being married to a supermodel is hard work.

I hear you brother








.... the hard work bit anyway

 

[Millky95]

The truth is somewhere in the middle.

Buddy had decent stats on May in a vacuum

But he had 1,000 chances cause we kept kicking it to, on top of or over him

 

[Superstar swan]

The biggest sign for me that things were not going as swimmingly as they seemed was when buddy had the ball in am Acre of space at hf. It looked like he panicked and did not no what to do, it ended up with him having an awkward shot at goal and the ball barely travelling 40m

Go back 2 years and that ball sails through at post height

 

[Tedeski]

The biggest sign for me that things were not going as swimmingly as they seemed was when buddy had the ball in am Acre of space at hf. It looked like he panicked and did not no what to do, it ended up with him having an awkward shot at goal and the ball barely travelling 40m

Go back 2 years and that ball sails through at post height

Everyone watching that knew Buddy cannot kick the distance without doing himself damage.
a) He would have backed himself to out run his opponent towards goal .
b) He would have taken a shot as you say & kicked it 60 metres.

It's only his 2nd game after a week of for Christ's sake. Can't say I am filled with confidence.
Maybe I need a different approach with the Swans re Buddy.
Maybe I can just sit back not expecting to play & win finals, & just enjoy everything Buddy does, even if it's a shadow of his former self.

I tried that after the first quarter when I knew the game was gone.
I actually thought Buddy did OK though with a reduced capacity. The young blokes need to step up & nail their shots.