When the tpp is so close, has it any significance as a decider ?
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When the tpp is so close, has it any significance as a decider ?
Oh... very hard to entirely prove or disprove.
Probably played a small part but whether its impact/contribution justifies the cost is another issue. I find Labor's argument that they kept Australia out of recession about as convincing as Howard and Costello claiming credit for Australia's booming economy during their tenure. Not very convincing at all.
It shouldn't even be calculated. For 'traditional' seats perhaps, but if it's not an ALP / Coalition 1-2, it makes the assumption that people are choosing preferences as if it will be.When the tpp is so close, has it any significance as a decider ?
If you live in Melbourne and hate the Greens and prefer Labor, but also prefer the Liberal to Labor, why wouldn't you go:It shouldn't even be calculated. For 'traditional' seats perhaps, but if it's not an ALP / Coalition 1-2, it makes the assumption that people are choosing preferences as if it will be.
Take Melbourne for instance. If someone hates the Greens they might have preferenced Labor ahead of Libs, but if they had expected it be an ALP-Lib contest they might have preferenced the two the other way around. You can't just assign those seats into the national 2PP as re-done as ALP / Lib contests and use the numbers as some sort of endorsement of either major party. Primary votes are the only votes you can take beyond a single seat and not have it rendered questionable at the very best.
The Coalition is currently 0.08% / 10,000 votes ahead of the Two-party preferred vote and trending upwards.
This lead will probably be swamped by the inclusion of the 8 non-traditional divisions and the Get Up vote down the track, however I now think it is going to be a lot closer than I previously presumed.
Unfortunately for the Coalition, the very bad day they have had politically today may ring their death knell, regardless of where the TPP finishes.
Yep, sportsbet have moved the alp into strong favouritism. Can't be on the back of Wilkie's decision, as that would have been expected. With Katter certain to oppose the ALP, and Oakeshott more likely to favour the ALP, I can only think that the whisper must be that Windsor is not happy with Abbott and the Coalition, or will side with Oakeshott in the name of stable govt.
Disquiet is growing within Liberal Party ranks about the role that Labor strategist Bruce Hawker - who is also Mr Windsor's cousin - is playing in the negotiations.
One Liberal source told The Australian Online that Mr Windsor and Mr Hawker had seemed "inseparable" in recent days and several other sources conceded they were losing hope Mr Windsor and Mr Oakeshott could be persuaded to back the Coalition.
Mr Oakeshott has previously called for onshore processing of asylum seekers and for Ross Garnaut's plan for an emissions trading scheme to be revisited - stances which contradict Coalition policy.
Tony Abbott also pointed out that Mr Windsor had refused a briefing from the Coalition team last night.
I just read that. It basically confirms everything that has been speculated on elsewhere.
It seems, barring a massive reversal, the ALP have won the election and will form a minority Government.
The whole black-hole blanket media coverage had Hawker's name all over it (despite it still meaning the Coalition's four year surpluses were still greater than the ALP's).
Oakeshott has now praised virtually all the biggest decisions Rudd came up with / wanted to implement - the ETS, the NBN, the mining tax. And it seems Windsor has been behind the most damaging media coverage against the Coalition over the past week.
Wow. Game over.
Gillard would have been shattered if she doesn't win. There would be no way to recover her career from a loss like that, and her Prime Ministership would be reduced to an asterisk on a one term government. Actually she would possibly be the shortest serving PM who wasn't essentially a caretaker a la Forde, McEwen etc. She would make Whitlam look like Menzies in terms of longevity.My gut feeling is that Abbott isn't as cut to not win PM this election as Gillard would of been.
Would he love to be PM? Sure. But I think he has a bit of time on his side.
Hell, if he does get replaced it would be for Turnbull anyway so win-win.
I disagree. If mal "mr. goldman sachs" turnbull replaces abbott as opposition leader, labour would be given a boost in the polls. The further away from any policy discussion turnbull is, the better it will be for Australia.Hell, if he does get replaced it would be for Turnbull anyway so win-win.
Which Turnbull policies do you disagree with?I disagree. If mal "mr. goldman sachs" turnbull replaces abbott as opposition leader, labour would be given a boost in the polls. The further away from any policy discussion turnbull is, the better it will be for Australia.
The big one is pushing the next big scam: an ETS. Being an ex-goldman sachs guy you would expect him to represent the banking sector's interests.Which Turnbull policies do you disagree with?
Or maybe being an "ex-Goldman Sachs guy" with his views he actually realises how important action is and how it is the most sensible policy.The big one is pushing the next big scam: an ETS. Being an ex-goldman sachs guy you would expect him to represent the banking sector's interests.
Absolute scum bag.
Its a bit rich to suggest media reporting on the costing hole had Hawkers name all over it. Of course it would be massive news - we are talking about a 10.6 bn dollar lie here. That is a serious issue of transparency and ethics that would very likely have a real influence on the indies decision. In this context it is worthy of blanket coverage.
I don't think its 'game over', but i would be pretty surprised if Oakeshott and Windsor now went with the Coalition. Besides the costings bungle, their position on the majority of key election issues seem, surprisingly, closer to the ALP than the Coalition....
That would be a possibility if we were to ignore the historical dealings of goldman sachs in trading bubbles. For them, its all about the money and **** everyone else.Or maybe being an "ex-Goldman Sachs guy" with his views he actually realises how important action is and how it is the most sensible policy.
FFS I wish O'Brien & McKew would wrap up their mutual masturbatory session over Kev.
HAVING trashed Julia Gillard's prime ministership, former Labor MP Maxine McKew has now rubbished the man to whom she owes her brief political career: Kevin Rudd.
Ms McKew, who won John Howard's seat of Bennelong in 2007, says Mr Rudd was "off his game" during this year's election campaign, advocated idiotic policies and introduced a "perverse and cruel" asylum-seeker regime that she "couldn't stomach".
Ms McKew criticises Mr Rudd over his failure to develop a plan for economic reform that placed jobs at its centre.
Instead, Mr Rudd "banged on endlessly about building a strong economy", which she says was meaningless