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Essendon vow enough is enough

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Traditionally, one team from outside the 8 makes the top 4 the following year (in the AFL era at least).
Essendon are not my first choice to do this in 2024.
Adelaide and Gold Coast look likely. For interstate teams, it's as simple as dominating home games and winning a few away games vs bottom teams.
Gold Coast is my pick because they have an easier home fixture with many winnable away games.
 
Jake Stringer in an important and honest interview with Tim Watson ch7 news tonight
Best preseason ever and best shape he has ever been in. Also that isn't related to him being out of contract at the end of the year
 
The Essendon list is starting to get a distinctly Brad Scott feel to it. Mainly competent footballers who weren't quite good enough to get anywhere good at other clubs have been recruited.

Oldstein 2024 contract expiry
Shiel 2024
Hind 2024
Kelly 2024
Wright 2027
Weideman 2024
Gresham 2026
McKay 2029
Setterfield 2024
Duursma 2027
Caldwell 2024

And one guy who did play in a flag.

Stringer 2024

At least a lot of those expire this year.

Who has the club committed to for at least 3 more years?

Wright 2027
Gresham 2026
McKay 2029
Duursma 2027

Merrett 2027
Martin 2027
Redman 2028
Langford 2026
Ridley 2026
Parish 2028

You probably wouldn't say there are a lot of stars in that lot. Some pretty good players of course.

Other mainly young players taken in rd 1 of the draft:

McGrath 2024
Perkins 2024
Hobbs 2025
Tsatas 2024
Laverde 2025
Caddy 2025
Cox 2024
Reid 2025

There looks a bit of calibre in this lot, but most of the better ones remain very young. But be warned Bombers, the Scott way is coming. The Scott brothers have shown a liking to only want to coach players who are easy to coach. 28+ years olds mainly. ;)
Parish, Merrett, Duursma, Shiel - that's potentially an elite midfield on paper.

McKay and Wright as very good bookends.

The talent is there to be thereabouts. 6-10 finish IMO. Won't win a final of course!
 

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Here's hoping. maybe 9th would be nice. Or 8th and out in the first week

They could do well. Good coach and some talent. But there are a lot of teams I'd rather back
 
Here's hoping. maybe 9th would be nice. Or 8th and out in the first week

They could do well. Good coach and some talent. But there are a lot of teams I'd rather back

21 consecutive years finishing the home and away season outside the top 6 have seventhdon.

That is bloody tough to do Dr T.

But it is fine, Brad Scott has it all under control. He steered them to 10th in his first year as coach and promptly blamed all the previous coaches, just about all of whom had coached them to higher finishes. :)
 
21 consecutive years finishing the home and away season outside the top 6 have seventhdon.

That is bloody tough to do Dr T.

But it is fine, Brad Scott has it all under control. He steered them to 10th in his first year as coach and promptly blamed all the previous coaches, just about all of whom had coached them to higher finishes. :)

IMG_1671.jpeg
 
0.0002000651738443255%

That number represents the probability of a team finishing outside the top 6 after the home and away season in an 18 team competition on 21 consecutive occasions.

0.02% chance. It is a 1 in 5000 chance. This is what Essendon have achieved in the last 21 years. In fact it is worse than that because there were only 16 teams in the competition for roughly a third of the period.
 
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0.0002000651738443255

That number represents the probability of a team finishing outside the top 6 after the home and away season in an 18 team competition on 21 consecutive occasions.

0.02% chance. It is a 1 in 5000 chance. This is what Essendon have achieved in the last 21 years. In fact it is worse than that because there were only 16 teams in the competition for roughly a third of the period.
What were the odds you thinking Tigers were going to beat Essendon last time we played?
 

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Yep
But this year is different
True. You know what though, one of these years, in the next 100 years the Bombers will be winning finals again. Thats for sure. So yes, we’ve heard it all before so every reason to be rightly cynical.. However, is this time different?

What’s actually different? For the first time in a decade, a full squad has had almost an injury free preseason. This is imo the main reason players at Essendon haven’t developed previously, they haven’t had recurring preseasons and trained or played games to grow individually or as a group (develop). You can’t develop as a player if you’re in and out of rehab and Essendon’s youth and stars have been in this ‘wheel spinning’ cycle for a decade or more. So a full squad having a full preseason is different.

Development via development coaches being added, skill based coaching with more expert coaches at individual level another new thing at EFC. Example, specialised coaching addressing a technical floor in Tsatas kicking action, working on an area of weakness. This, for Essendon is different as they haven’t brought this level of technical support previously. They’ve also put more emphasis and time into mental aspects and player resilience. This is also something different for Essendon.

Professional standards or ‘AFL lifestyle’ as they term it has ramped up. There’s certainly a more professional outfit on the track. The standards have lifted, leaders are emerging and taking ownership (Langford, Redman, McGrath, Ridley). The Arizona camp example also feeds to fitness and higher standards.

So, all things equal, a much fitter, a stronger and more professional outfit with more cohesion / chemistry in due course as time goes on will result in improvement.

How much improvement? If the squad remains fit and on the park, Essendon is certainly capable of breaking their finals drought in 2024. However, it will need to manage its way through dealing with weekly opposition tactics and how this will challenge an emerging group without recurring seasons of chemistry and cohesion in 2024 until they play another 25-50 games as a group. This, with injuries loom as the likely risks to its finals ambition for 2024.

Time will tell…. As is always the case with this mob.
 

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Essendon vow enough is enough

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