It's taken me 36 hours to come to terms with things, but I've finally gotten there and now can write something with a clear head.
To start off with, I said I'd be happy with a close prelim final loss, and for once, I can at least say that. Usually we get smashed in a prelim final, but this time at least, we seemed in it up to our necks. This is without our leading goal scorer, and players with under 50 games experience in Kelly, Miers, Atkins, Rata, Henry, O'Connor and Narkle, playing tonight. Now that's not to say that I'm not bitterly disappointed, as we could have definitely pinched a flag this year ala Bulldogs '16 and Tigers '17. With that said, I think our strong start masked our eventual output. I think we were more a Top 6 side this year, reflected in our loss to Collingwood which could easily have been a win, and our win over the Eagles during the Rioli controversy (which could easily have been a loss). Only Richmond and GWS have looked a class above at most stages this season (when they've had a full squad to pick from). We had moments, but only when other sides were down.
This loss gutted me at the time, but after cooling down and getting some perspective, it's actually pretty remarkable we went from 8th last year to minor premiers and one half away from a Grand Final. Not that it doesn't burn, but we exceeded everyone's expectations this year. We were never really 'dominant', which is a thing I think a lot of posters forget. In games against the Dogs at KP, Sydney at KP and Adelaide at KP, we were dominated in large patches. Class like Kelly, Danger, Duncan, Stewart etc. rose to the top in those games, but we were never belting sides that we were favourite against. Even St Kilda at home late in the season, we still only beat them by 20 points. Even then that was close until the last 10 minutes. We only beat Collingwood in Round 1, because they missed so many set shots in the 2nd, and then we capitalised on ours. We also only won so many games early on in the season, because of our accuracy from minimal inside 50's (I think it was like close to 50% of entries resulted in a goal, which was off the charts). This coupled with our focus on 1 on 1's in the pre-season, meant that we essentially got a 'jump' on the competition. Once the bye rolled around, teams had started figuring us out, and slowly but surely our scoring dried up.
I also think that upon revisiting some moments in the match, that Blics down back may have quelled Lynch, but would not have stopped Prestia. He was key, and he was who we needed to shut down. Unfortunately, Guthrie had some soreness, which I saw late in the second. As a result, that meant he was taken out of the centre and thrown forward for large patches, and then down back late when we were under immense pressure. This coupled with Danger getting a knock and Ablett looking like he was playing sore, meant that Parfitt, Menegola, Narkle, Kelly and Sel, were our only mids. Up against Prestia, Cotchin, Martin, Edwards (who had a huge third quarter) and Lambert, we were just hopelessly outclassed. That seemed to be what showed towards the end.
These aren't excuses, rather an explanation to questions I myself asked, along with others following the conclusion of the match. It's a tough pill to swallow, but with Hawkins out, and no run from Duncan, Clark, Rohan or an injured Guthrie, we just couldn't keep up with their frenetic pace and their goal-scoring output. This coupled with our inability to hit targets under pressure, meant that we couldn't play our game either. This meant that we got shallow forward 50 entries, which lead to Houli rebounding alongside Vlaustin, Baker, Edwards etc. This led to our defence being under immense pressure, and the Tigers getting heaps of their goals that way. Scott is right about this one, when he said that the Tigs aren't 'complicated.' They do score most of their goals from the back half, much like Adelaide in 2017. If you can lock it in and bring it to ground deep in your forward line, then your defence can setup and put pressure to stop them getting it back out. Too many times we put it 40 out, and a Prestia or Edwards, Castagna, Lambert type would burst out and create a 'chaos ball' through the centre. That's how we lost, and I doubt Blicavs could have really stopped that.
With all this said, it'll take a long while from me to recover from this one, but I'll be back pre-season to go through it all over again, as I have since I first remember seeing Ablett Snr play in 1993.
Will leave us with a possible Round 1 team for next year (all players being fit and having a good pre-season), including depth and likely retirements/trades (makes me feel better looking at this, so might be good some of you guys too).
B: Stewart, Blicavs, Henry
HB: Tuohy, Kolo, O'Connor
C: Duncan, Sel, Clark
FO: Stanley, Danger, Constable
HF: Menegola, Hawkins, Dahl
F: Rohan, Ratugolea, Miers
INT: C. Guthrie, Kreuger, Steven, Cockatoo (Parf or Narkle if still not ready)
Depth: Narkle, Henderson, Fogarty, Parfitt, Bews, Atkins, Parsons, Fort,
Likely delistings, retirements or trades: T. Kelly, Ablett, Taylor, Scooter, Smith, Abbott, Buzza, Cunico, Jones (9 spots on list available)
With 13 and 22 from Kelly deal at a minimum (decent) draft picks that we'll hold will be: 13, 15, 22, 33 and 51. Hopefully Steven can get fit, but he's still just an interchange at best player with his current fitness, not starting 18. can draft 4-6, pick up Steven and maybe a couple of other decent trades (ruck and key defender would be nice).
Have us finishing 5-8 next year, but who knows after this year. Looking forward to seeing lots of games for Kreuger and Constable, and a debut for Okunbor and maybe Tarca.
Bring on 2020 and go GIANTS!!!
To start off with, I said I'd be happy with a close prelim final loss, and for once, I can at least say that. Usually we get smashed in a prelim final, but this time at least, we seemed in it up to our necks. This is without our leading goal scorer, and players with under 50 games experience in Kelly, Miers, Atkins, Rata, Henry, O'Connor and Narkle, playing tonight. Now that's not to say that I'm not bitterly disappointed, as we could have definitely pinched a flag this year ala Bulldogs '16 and Tigers '17. With that said, I think our strong start masked our eventual output. I think we were more a Top 6 side this year, reflected in our loss to Collingwood which could easily have been a win, and our win over the Eagles during the Rioli controversy (which could easily have been a loss). Only Richmond and GWS have looked a class above at most stages this season (when they've had a full squad to pick from). We had moments, but only when other sides were down.
This loss gutted me at the time, but after cooling down and getting some perspective, it's actually pretty remarkable we went from 8th last year to minor premiers and one half away from a Grand Final. Not that it doesn't burn, but we exceeded everyone's expectations this year. We were never really 'dominant', which is a thing I think a lot of posters forget. In games against the Dogs at KP, Sydney at KP and Adelaide at KP, we were dominated in large patches. Class like Kelly, Danger, Duncan, Stewart etc. rose to the top in those games, but we were never belting sides that we were favourite against. Even St Kilda at home late in the season, we still only beat them by 20 points. Even then that was close until the last 10 minutes. We only beat Collingwood in Round 1, because they missed so many set shots in the 2nd, and then we capitalised on ours. We also only won so many games early on in the season, because of our accuracy from minimal inside 50's (I think it was like close to 50% of entries resulted in a goal, which was off the charts). This coupled with our focus on 1 on 1's in the pre-season, meant that we essentially got a 'jump' on the competition. Once the bye rolled around, teams had started figuring us out, and slowly but surely our scoring dried up.
I also think that upon revisiting some moments in the match, that Blics down back may have quelled Lynch, but would not have stopped Prestia. He was key, and he was who we needed to shut down. Unfortunately, Guthrie had some soreness, which I saw late in the second. As a result, that meant he was taken out of the centre and thrown forward for large patches, and then down back late when we were under immense pressure. This coupled with Danger getting a knock and Ablett looking like he was playing sore, meant that Parfitt, Menegola, Narkle, Kelly and Sel, were our only mids. Up against Prestia, Cotchin, Martin, Edwards (who had a huge third quarter) and Lambert, we were just hopelessly outclassed. That seemed to be what showed towards the end.
These aren't excuses, rather an explanation to questions I myself asked, along with others following the conclusion of the match. It's a tough pill to swallow, but with Hawkins out, and no run from Duncan, Clark, Rohan or an injured Guthrie, we just couldn't keep up with their frenetic pace and their goal-scoring output. This coupled with our inability to hit targets under pressure, meant that we couldn't play our game either. This meant that we got shallow forward 50 entries, which lead to Houli rebounding alongside Vlaustin, Baker, Edwards etc. This led to our defence being under immense pressure, and the Tigers getting heaps of their goals that way. Scott is right about this one, when he said that the Tigs aren't 'complicated.' They do score most of their goals from the back half, much like Adelaide in 2017. If you can lock it in and bring it to ground deep in your forward line, then your defence can setup and put pressure to stop them getting it back out. Too many times we put it 40 out, and a Prestia or Edwards, Castagna, Lambert type would burst out and create a 'chaos ball' through the centre. That's how we lost, and I doubt Blicavs could have really stopped that.
With all this said, it'll take a long while from me to recover from this one, but I'll be back pre-season to go through it all over again, as I have since I first remember seeing Ablett Snr play in 1993.
Will leave us with a possible Round 1 team for next year (all players being fit and having a good pre-season), including depth and likely retirements/trades (makes me feel better looking at this, so might be good some of you guys too).
B: Stewart, Blicavs, Henry
HB: Tuohy, Kolo, O'Connor
C: Duncan, Sel, Clark
FO: Stanley, Danger, Constable
HF: Menegola, Hawkins, Dahl
F: Rohan, Ratugolea, Miers
INT: C. Guthrie, Kreuger, Steven, Cockatoo (Parf or Narkle if still not ready)
Depth: Narkle, Henderson, Fogarty, Parfitt, Bews, Atkins, Parsons, Fort,
Likely delistings, retirements or trades: T. Kelly, Ablett, Taylor, Scooter, Smith, Abbott, Buzza, Cunico, Jones (9 spots on list available)
With 13 and 22 from Kelly deal at a minimum (decent) draft picks that we'll hold will be: 13, 15, 22, 33 and 51. Hopefully Steven can get fit, but he's still just an interchange at best player with his current fitness, not starting 18. can draft 4-6, pick up Steven and maybe a couple of other decent trades (ruck and key defender would be nice).
Have us finishing 5-8 next year, but who knows after this year. Looking forward to seeing lots of games for Kreuger and Constable, and a debut for Okunbor and maybe Tarca.
Bring on 2020 and go GIANTS!!!
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Took me a long time to be able to compile something, as there was a lot to go through before I could analyse it with a clear head, haha
