Preview Geelong V Port Thu June 15 @ AO 710 pm

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Ladies ans gentlemen... I have a strong gut feeling that we will win this.

Dangerfield holmes duncan back, jeremy cameron to boot 4+, hawkins 10+ marks.. Our link up and defensive game on.

Im feeling it. Chips all in on the table resemblance of casino royale poker scene.
Hope so, but Port is playing as well as anyone at present. Some task on their dunghill I'd have thought.
 

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We need 8 wins. from the remaining 11 games ... 7 wins .. and it get into the area of percentage.


A rough guess ... L,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,W....


it looks like that last game against the Dogs might be to see who plays finals.... and thats only if all goes as expected. Win this games against Port and it has the chance to really change the storyline.


View attachment 1710067
We will get the 8!
 
Thought CS said in his last presser Holmes would get up. Esava, no. Menegola, who knows.

He did but id be wary it would be less than 1mth post surgery.

Sav sounds like hes maybe 2 weeks away menegola further back will be late season if at all (see guthrie).
Stanley is the unknown in terms of when he will be back.
 
..

We need 8 wins. from the remaining 11 games ... 7 wins .. and it get into the area of percentage.


A rough guess ... L,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,W....


it looks like that last game against the Dogs might be to see who plays finals.... and thats only if all goes as expected. Win this games against Port and it has the chance to really change the storyline.


View attachment 1710067

Honestly i think we will win all the gmhba games from kangaroos on..that would give us 5 wins.
Beat the swans or demons and we are at 6 but its gonna be tight.

The next 3 weeks are crucial lose them all snd we basically might have to win out to get there. While i think we could win 5 or 6 on the reel to make finals thats pressure. We need the dogs or saints to stay near the bottom of the 8 so we can beat them both to get in (those 2 games we should win).

We are only 2 games off top 4 though its a tight year.
 
..

We need 8 wins. from the remaining 11 games ... 7 wins .. and it get into the area of percentage.


A rough guess ... L,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,W....


it looks like that last game against the Dogs might be to see who plays finals.... and thats only if all goes as expected. Win this games against Port and it has the chance to really change the storyline.


View attachment 1710067
I agree with you picking the Pies game as a win. I think they'll have top 2 secured and we will be desperate. But I believe we'd back that up with a win vs St Kilda, who are just not that great.

I've noticed you've only picked 10 results with your WL projection by the way, so maybe that changes which games you meant.
 
I mentioned it earlier and have thought a few times when watching JHF play that he has a bit of Gaz about him.

He is obviously a very high-level talent for sure and only will improve.
I've watched JHF come through the ranks at SANFL level (as I have for every South Adelaide kid) and he is by far the most talented kid to come through the region for quite some time.

He was tearing it up at SANFL league level as a 16/17 year old. It was never a matter of if, but when he gets things going, he's going to tear games apart at AFL level, too.

Big call, this, but I believe that when he and Nick Daicos retire, JHF could well be the better player. He's certainly got a bit of Danger about him.

I don't count Jason's first year at Norf because they were an absolute basket case. Jason only ever wanted to play for Port, and you can see over the first half of this year just how happy he is.
 
..

We need 8 wins. from the remaining 11 games ... 7 wins .. and it get into the area of percentage.


A rough guess ... L,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,W....


it looks like that last game against the Dogs might be to see who plays finals.... and thats only if all goes as expected. Win this games against Port and it has the chance to really change the storyline.


View attachment 1710067

The other thing that helps us is that we play a lot of teams around us near the bottom of the 8-dogs saints essendon freo etc.
Win all those games and 12 wins might be enough to get us in especially considering our % is pretty good.
 
Just my view but I'd select as follows (I'll assume gospel is true and all mentioned players are declared fit)

In - Dangerfield, Holmes, Duncan

Out - Mullin, Simpson, Bews
(Bruhn also out of 22 but plays as sub).

Comfortable to leave Bowes 1 more week.

Port don't have overly dangerous smalls so think giving a vet like Bews 2 weeks off would be good for the 2nd half of his season. With mid Depth back in and probably more important this week than small defender depth, O'Connor and Zach Guth can cover any small fwds.

Ceglars form has been average, but think if he can offsett lycett the cats get alot of benefit for how to use Blicvas as utility.

Think Knevitt deserves another game so wouldn't drop him

Going to be a fascinating selection this week, could go alot of ways
 
The other thing that helps us is that we play a lot of teams around us near the bottom of the 8-dogs saints essendon freo etc.
Win all those games and 12 wins might be enough to get us in especially considering our % is pretty good.

How many of thos play West Coast agin to boost their percentage.. I feel id rather have the extra win so percentage is irrelevant.

Getting there is only the first hurdle. One their having to possible play multiple interstate games will be the next..

All can be cast aside..if we bet a few team that at the moment seem tough games.
 
How many of thos play West Coast agin to boost their percentage.. I feel id rather have the extra win so percentage is irrelevant.

Getting there is only the first hurdle. One their having to possible play multiple interstate games will be the next..

All can be cast aside..if we bet a few team that at the moment seem tough games.

Valid point.
Dogs freo ess bris saints adel all play wce once as do rich and syd.

That said most of those teams dont have a better %than us by much and some like bulldogs are like 20 % behind us.

What we must do is win some of the gmhba games by good margins (north and ess in particular) and ensure that if we lose the games on the road (port bris syd) that they are close losses. That will keep us in the hunt % wise. This is a weird year and i think someone will sneak in 8th with 12 wins or less-could well be us.

If we sneak in and get a team like stk/ess/adel/dogs etc in week 1 i will be very confident.
 

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Valid point.
Dogs freo ess bris saints adel all play wce once as do rich and syd.

That said most of those teams dont have a better %than us by much and some like bulldogs are like 20 % behind us.

What we must do is win some of the gmhba games by good margins (north and ess in particular) and ensure that if we lose the games on the road (port bris syd) that they are close losses. That will keep us in the hunt % wise. This is a weird year and i think someone will sneak in 8th with 12 wins or less-could well be us.

If we sneak in and get a team like stk/ess/adel/dogs etc in week 1 i will be very confident.
Essendon have improved, and having their KF back helps, hence their ladder position. It is a weird season .
 
Just my view but I'd select as follows (I'll assume gospel is true and all mentioned players are declared fit)

In - Dangerfield, Holmes, Duncan

Out - Mullin, Simpson, Bews
(Bruhn also out of 22 but plays as sub).

Comfortable to leave Bowes 1 more week.

Port don't have overly dangerous smalls so think giving a vet like Bews 2 weeks off would be good for the 2nd half of his season. With mid Depth back in and probably more important this week than small defender depth, O'Connor and Zach Guth can cover any small fwds.

Ceglars form has been average, but think if he can offsett lycett the cats get alot of benefit for how to use Blicvas as utility.

Think Knevitt deserves another game so wouldn't drop him

Going to be a fascinating selection this week, could go alot of ways
Disagree.
Bews is needed.
P-P, Rioli, and Rozee plays there a fair bit.
 
..

We need 8 wins. from the remaining 11 games ... 7 wins .. and it get into the area of percentage.


A rough guess ... L,W,W,W,W,L,W,W,L,W....


it looks like that last game against the Dogs might be to see who plays finals.... and thats only if all goes as expected. Win this games against Port and it has the chance to really change the storyline.


View attachment 1710067

I don't think it will take 8 wins. I'm tipping that a 13-10 record will be enough for a top eight finish. I also think there's a possibility that even 12-11 might be enough to make finals this year on percentage, in which case going 6-5 for the remainder of the season may still sneak us into the eight. I suspect it's going to be a smaller win rate percentage required than usual to get there.

We better hope so, anyway. I don't think an 8-3 record from our final 11 games is possible with our injury list. If Guthrie were returning, then it would be do-able. In his absence we'll have only one elite mid to call upon for an extremely tough run of games. Sure, we should still be able to win at a reasonable pace, but I just think our midfield is going to be too weak for us not to drop games here and there.
 
Essendon have improved, and having their KF back helps, hence their ladder position. It is a weird season .

They have improved but the fact that it is at KP will help us a lot and a lot of their kids are not used to playing there regularly. I expect we win.
 
Hope so, but Port is playing as well as anyone at present. Some task on their dunghill I'd have thought.

I do agree but we match up well against them. Their backline is very suspect, being held together by blokes like Dylan Williams and Lachie Jones who have played well against average opposition. Will be interesting to see how it holds up against a powerful attack like ours. In their loss to the Crows Thilthorpe kicked 5, Rankine 4, and even Pedlar kicked 3.
 
I do agree but we match up well against them. Their backline is very suspect, being held together by blokes like Dylan Williams and Lachie Jones who have played well against average opposition. Will be interesting to see how it holds up against a powerful attack like ours. In their loss to the Crows Thilthorpe kicked 5, Rankine 4, and even Pedlar kicked 3.

I agree with that. Their midfield is very good though so we will need the right supply to expose it. Good week to get danger back.
 

GEELONG captain Patrick Dangerfield is ready to return for Thursday night's clash against Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval after recovering from a hamstring strain, while Mitch Duncan and Max Holmes are pressing to make the trip to South Australia.

Dangerfield has missed the past four games due to the low-grade hamstring strain he sustained against Adelaide in round eight.

It is understood that the Brownlow medallist was ready to return in round 12 but the Cats opted to take the conservative approach with the 33-year-old ahead of the extra week off.

After banking two sessions together since returning from the bye, the eight-time All-Australian is expected to travel to Adelaide with the team on Wednesday.

Midfield pair Duncan and Holmes both trained fully with the main group on the weekend and will need to complete training on Tuesday before a decision is made around their returns.

Duncan hasn't played since straining his hamstring at training ahead of the round 10 trip to Perth to face Fremantle. The two-time premiership player missed the first three games of the season due to a pre-season calf strain and has managed only six appearances to start 2023.

Holmes is set to be available for selection after undergoing surgery late last month to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee. The 20-year-old suffered the injury against Fremantle in round 10 but could end up only missing two games due to the timing of the bye.
 
My most immediate focus from the first bounce will be whether the boys look to be switched on for the contest.
Jones busted his jaw on Friday night; Port will assist you by promoting Captain Jonas and Burton from the SANFL.
The wild card could be also promoting the sparkling Narkle.
 
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