Prediction Geelong's fortunes for season 2019

[Ratcat]

Yep, it depends on what you are valuing. In your case efficiency be damned, half a km a game is the import part - entirely valid, and you have established why you think so. In many ways I agree with you.

Mine was more focussed on individual disposal bang for buck.
MrB claimed that it was obvious that Ablett chip scabbed for cheap possessions. That was the argument against him being a chip scab and cheapie gatherer.

Most involved? I'm not sure, that would need to be defined again - most possessions? No. Most time on ground? No. Most Score involvements? No. It's likely to be a combination of many stats, but that is another discussion entirely.

You have to have guys that are busy and accumulate like Ablett does, his stats prove he's still an exceptional accumulator.

Averages mean nothing unless the pool taken is a reflection of a players norms over a reasonable number of games so the av isn't a misrepresentation.

 

[And_ROOS]

Our rucks are going to be our biggest issue again this season, I can see it now. Smith has a back problem, that doesn't just go away overnight, Stanley is unreliable to stay healthy, meaning we have to hope Abbott and Fort come up good.

The other issue is our coach doesn't seem to rate the position. West Coast showed the way, 2 average rucks bashed into Grundy and he was then cooked by the third quarter. Teams either play 1 gun ruck, or 2 adequate rucks. Our coach plays 1 adequate ruck, or in the case of the WCE match none. And it cost us.

Abbott and Stanley can both push forward. Play both as rucks, and have them occasionally rotate forward to give height and help Hawkins forward. Hawk and a resting ruck, add in Ablett, Dal, Rohan and thats a strong, quick forward line that can mark.

 

[Turbocat]

He (NDel) still bears a grudge over the 2009 GF.

Not that there is anything wrong with that ....

 

[Turbocat]

We've gone in with the wrong structures to make it work efficiently and have far too many passengers who aren't willing enough to play with the intensity required to make it fully work. It's why I'm a huge critic of Guthrie and one or two others.

We needed a few more runners to really make it work which is why we went with Clark and Kennerley in the draft and picked up Dahlhaus and Rohan.

Rohan will be a weapon next year if he overcomes his injury concerns, as will Cockatoo. I reckon we may see those two draftees at stages next year. It's also why Menzel had to go. That system can't afford 1 player up forward who doesn't/ or can't do the hard yards.

I think back to the round 8 game in 2011 when Collingwood struggled to get the ball out of their defence ... it was that game where I was convinced we'd win the flag and threw a pile of cash on the outcome. 1 of only two times I've outlaid that kind of money. The other was round 24 of the same season for a Geelong win of 40+.

Do we have the players to play that way again? Yes we do (minus Guthrie) It's all about the fitness levels because it requires a huge fitness base. But if this pre-season is any indication they're making an effort to improve on previous years in this area. I also reckon (and I've said it before) it's the reason we've parted ways with two important fitness staff in the last few years and found replacements.

If we remain relatively healthy next year we're going to give the premiership a big shake and surprise everyone who have again written us off.

Good post

 

[Mr Blicavs]

See here’s the things about stats, they mostly only measure what’s happening when you have the footy. They rarely measure what you do when you don’t.
What separates the very best teams from the also runs is what they do when they don’t have the pill. Things like actual pressure which creates perceived pressure, chasing, smothering, manning up, clearing space to run, shepherding etc etc etc. Geelongs biggest failures are what happens when they don’t have the ball. They rarely do the above mentioned things Hopefully accountability will find a home at the Cattery in 2019

 

[Spazz Cat]

See here’s the things about stats, they mostly only measure what’s happening when you have the footy. They rarely measure what you do when you don’t.
What separates the very best teams from the also runs is what they do when they don’t have the pill. Things like actual pressure which creates perceived pressure, chasing, smothering, manning up, clearing space to run, shepherding etc etc etc. Geelongs biggest failures are what happens when they don’t have the ball. They rarely do the above mentioned things Hopefully accountability will find a home at the Cattery in 2019

Absolutely! All of that.
Blocking, Shepherding is a big one for mine and we are so, so poor at it. Like the worst.
I think most Cats fans know it too. Even if they won't admit it.
Its what turned Stanley from a massive whipping boy into almost a fan favourite when he laid that big shepherd at KP.
It was like we were so grateful just to see someone do it!
It's also why most have turned on Guthrie. Especially if they see him live.
F**k that campaigner jogging around the outside with his arms out in no position to receive the ball, no position to lay a tackle but still won't f**king block.

 

[Ricketz]

See here’s the things about stats, they mostly only measure what’s happening when you have the footy. They rarely measure what you do when you don’t.
What separates the very best teams from the also runs is what they do when they don’t have the pill. Things like actual pressure which creates perceived pressure, chasing, smothering, manning up, clearing space to run, shepherding etc etc etc. Geelongs biggest failures are what happens when they don’t have the ball. They rarely do the above mentioned things Hopefully accountability will find a home at the Cattery in 2019

That's not true at all. They do have stats to measure many, if not all of those.

But it is clear that you don't like stats because you have to be specific. How do I argue against your broad statement that we don't do those things without stats?

I guess I will just say, nuh-uh you are wrong.

 

[Spazz Cat]

That's not true at all. They do have stats to measure many, if not all of those.

But it is clear that you don't like stats because you have to be specific. How do I argue against your broad statement that we don't do those things without stats?

I guess I will just say, nuh-uh you are wrong.

Yeah they do have stats that sort of measure that stuff, but they are very sketchy at best and don't really tell the story.
Did you see that video where it showed CD's stats on Dusty's tackles?
None of them were tackles.
That Eagles bloke who won the final in 17 against Port didn't get a stat for running the ball into the point post etc, even though it was play of the year.

 

[Mr Blicavs]

Absolutely! All of that.
Blocking, Shepherding is a big one for mine and we are so, so poor at it. Like the worst.
I think most Cats fans know it too. Even if they won't admit it.
Its what turned Stanley from a massive whipping boy into almost a fan favourite when he laid that big shepherd at KP.
It's also why most have turned on Guthrie. Especially if they see him live.
F**k that campaigner jogging around the outside with his arms out in no position to receive the ball, no position to lay a tackle but still won't f**king block.

Guthrie is the biggest offender of all. I remember sitting at the footy one day with Nakia and we spent a great deal of the match watching him do exactly what you just pointed out. Point blank refuses to chase.
People often complain about Geelongs disposal efficiency, but if team mates actually blocked or shepherded, those disposals may not be so rushed, and efficiency may actually improve
If blokes like Guthire continue to get cheap games or not buy into a team mentality, then not much is going to change The very best teams understand how important time without the ball is... not sure Scott has caught on yet
Fingers crossed

 

[Spazz Cat]

Guthrie is the biggest offender of all. I remember sitting at the footy one day with Nakia and we spent a great deal of the match watching him do exactly what you just pointed out. Point blank refuses to chase.
People often complain about Geelongs disposal efficiency, but if team mates actually blocked or shepherded, those disposals may not be so rushed, and efficiency may actually improve
If blokes like Guthire continue to get cheap games or not buy into a team mentality, then not much is going to change The very best teas understand how important time without the ball is... not sure Scott has caught on yet
Fingers crossed

Yep, couldn't agree more.

 

[Ricketz]

Yeah they do have stats that sort of measure that stuff, but they are very sketchy at best and don't really tell the story.
Did you see that video where it showed CD's stats on Dusty's tackles?
None of them were tackles.
That Eagles bloke who won the final in 17 against Port didn't get a stat for running the ball into the point post etc, even though it was play of the year.

As long as they apply them the same way as they do for Dusty, what is the issue?

I can't see a guy running into the post really invalidating the stats they gather, either - how often does that happen?

Dismiss stats if you like, but if you just make a statement without supporting it with evidence, why should anyone take your opinion seriously?

 

[Spazz Cat]

As long as they apply them the same way as they do for Dusty, what is the issue?

I can't see a guy running into the post really invalidating the stats they gather, either - how often does that happen?

Dismiss stats if you like, but if you just make a statement without supporting it with evidence, why should anyone take your opinion seriously?

They don't though. Apart from your staple tangible stats like HB's, kicks marks etc, the rest is kind of subjective to whoever's gathering them at the time.
Yeah both my statements have no evidence at all.
They're just my opinions, that noone has to take seriously. I don't mind.

 

[David the Cat]

People are not interested in petty squabbles.....or 3rd parties joining in to exacerbate the situation.

And Mr B...if you use the term "champ" one more time, expect a sanction.....

 

[catpremier 07]

Starting to get excited for the footy again, really got no idea what to expect from this team but the past few years have shown anything is possible.
Cricket has been a major disappointment to say the least.

 

[Farmer2Goggin]

I like the "chipscab" 1-2 possies. They are often a creative and effective way to get us out of a tight spot.
I can't see Gaz being a very effective full time forward though. Not quick enough, not a great pressure player and will struggle to mark over head.
Personally Menegola is the mid I'd move forward, I'd be moving Selwood back as much as possible and surrounding Gaz with quick more defensive mids.

I tend to share your concerns about going forward on a more permanent basis. He is a football genius but the shoulder and the decline in his pace could be a problem.
Interestingly he played HBF in the 3rd quarter over here V Eagles - had it on an absolute string and was one of the major reasons we came back to about level at 3/4 time. Unfortunately he did the hammy just on 3/4 time so didn't get a chance to see how he performed there in the last.
Wouldn't mind seeing him on a HBF or wing more often this season whilst the young guys get more mid time

 

[Turbocat]

I tend to share your concerns about going forward on a more permanent basis. He is a football genius but the shoulder and the decline in his pace could be a problem.
Interestingly he played HBF in the 3rd quarter over here V Eagles - had it on an absolute string and was one of the major reasons we came back to about level at 3/4 time. Unfortunately he did the hammy just on 3/4 time so didn't get a chance to see how he performed there in the last.
Wouldn't mind seeing him on a HBF or wing more often this season whilst the young guys get more mid time

Ablett on the backline makes a lot of sense to me ..he has always been good in heavy traffic and getting the ball to the next link in the chain

 

[SagsyBoi05]

Some extremely interesting opinions on this thread about our potential in 2019.

If we play a spare down back, Ablett could be a dominant figure off a HBF. If we don’t, he would need to tighten up his defensive pursuits for it to be a success. If he embraces the challenge, it could be huge.

The chats about metres gained need to be measured with efficiency don’t they? Danger has great metres gained but regularly turns the ball over.

Menzel would have still be fantastic at Geelong if we had the luxury of playing him like a Gunston, with little nippy fellows able to apply pressure. We never had those players, it was left up to Menzel who always was singled out. Why try and play a player in a position where it out weights his strength and singles out his improvement area?

Would love to see Guthrie move back to defence where he became a blue collar type worker playing his best footy.

After being banned from another thread, someone asked a question about Fort and his mongrel (I think it was you TurboCat)... if you go to YouTube and type in Port v Central Melee from 2017 you will see Fort (#30) and his mongrel to any opposition player, not just this game. In 2018, he broke his hand against the would be premiers early in the 2nd quarter, went on to have 61 hit outs and a huge influence on the game, whilst still bashing and crashing into blokes. The reason why Scarlett would love him is because he’s the type that after tackling a bloke, will push their head into the ground (not pick them up and give them a pat on the back), he will demand his team mates to put in (not give them a pat on the back and say bad luck).


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Some extremely interesting opinions on this thread about our potential in 2019.

If we play a spare down back, Ablett could be a dominant figure off a HBF. If we don’t, he would need to tighten up his defensive pursuits for it to be a success. If he embraces the challenge, it could be huge.

The chats about metres gained need to be measured with efficiency don’t they? Danger has great metres gained but regularly turns the ball over.

Menzel would have still be fantastic at Geelong if we had the luxury of playing him like a Gunston, with little nippy fellows able to apply pressure. We never had those players, it was left up to Menzel who always was singled out. Why try and play a player in a position where it out weights his strength and singles out his improvement area?

Would love to see Guthrie move back to defence where he became a blue collar type worker playing his best footy.

After being banned from another thread, someone asked a question about Fort and his mongrel (I think it was you TurboCat)... if you go to YouTube and type in Port v Central Melee from 2017 you will see Fort (#30) and his mongrel to any opposition player, not just this game. In 2018, he broke his hand against the would be premiers early in the 2nd quarter, went on to have 61 hit outs and a huge influence on the game, whilst still bashing and crashing into blokes. The reason why Scarlett would love him is because he’s the type that after tackling a bloke, will push their head into the ground (not pick them up and give them a pat on the back), he will demand his team mates to put in (not give them a pat on the back and say bad luck).


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

You lost me when describing Guthrie as a blue collar type worker which is a slap in the face to those who are actual blue collar types. The only heavy lifting Guthrie does is in the gym. He has the work rate of a dead ant.

 

[SagsyBoi05]

You lost me when describing Guthrie as a blue collar type worker which is a slap in the face to those who are actual blue collar types. The only heavy lifting Guthrie does is in the gym. He has the work rate of a dead ant.

He became a regular in the side by defending hard first and then running hard with good work rate to create offensively. That’s how he makes us a better side.

He’s never going to be a Max Rooke or Bluey McGrath type blue collar.

You wouldn’t happen to be one of these people that only get around a side/individuals you support when they are going well and turn into bagging them out when they struggle a bit?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[you pick one]

He became a regular in the side by defending hard first and then running hard with good work rate to create offensively. That’s how he makes us a better side.

He’s never going to be a Max Rooke or Bluey McGrath type blue collar.

You wouldn’t happen to be one of these people that only get around a side/individuals you support when they are going well and turn into bagging them out when they struggle a bit?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

He's rubbish now,I wouldn't have him anywhere near the backline,he has no desperation simply goes to ground instead of making a contest and is a rabbit in the headlights when under any sort of pressure with the ball in hand and usually makes it his team mates problem to avoid the being tackled himself,put him down as no1 goal assist for the opposition,spud.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

He became a regular in the side by defending hard first and then running hard with good work rate to create offensively. That’s how he makes us a better side.

He’s never going to be a Max Rooke or Bluey McGrath type blue collar.

You wouldn’t happen to be one of these people that only get around a side/individuals you support when they are going well and turn into bagging them out when they struggle a bit?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Now he does neither, so outski.

And no.

 

[Mr Blicavs]

He became a regular in the side by defending hard first and then running hard with good work rate to create offensively. That’s how he makes us a better side.

He’s never going to be a Max Rooke or Bluey McGrath type blue collar.

You wouldn’t happen to be one of these people that only get around a side/individuals you support when they are going well and turn into bagging them out when they struggle a bit?


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

U Wat M8??????
Do you even watch Geelong games?

 

[Landgraft]

Some extremely interesting opinions on this thread about our potential in 2019.

If we play a spare down back, Ablett could be a dominant figure off a HBF. If we don’t, he would need to tighten up his defensive pursuits for it to be a success. If he embraces the challenge, it could be huge.

The chats about metres gained need to be measured with efficiency don’t they? Danger has great metres gained but regularly turns the ball over.

Menzel would have still be fantastic at Geelong if we had the luxury of playing him like a Gunston, with little nippy fellows able to apply pressure. We never had those players, it was left up to Menzel who always was singled out. Why try and play a player in a position where it out weights his strength and singles out his improvement area?

Would love to see Guthrie move back to defence where he became a blue collar type worker playing his best footy.

After being banned from another thread, someone asked a question about Fort and his mongrel (I think it was you TurboCat)... if you go to YouTube and type in Port v Central Melee from 2017 you will see Fort (#30) and his mongrel to any opposition player, not just this game. In 2018, he broke his hand against the would be premiers early in the 2nd quarter, went on to have 61 hit outs and a huge influence on the game, whilst still bashing and crashing into blokes. The reason why Scarlett would love him is because he’s the type that after tackling a bloke, will push their head into the ground (not pick them up and give them a pat on the back), he will demand his team mates to put in (not give them a pat on the back and say bad luck).


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

I like your overall principle, but there are always nits to be picked - like loose defenders probably becoming less common next season due to starting positions. Others will grumble about Guthrie, because he is the type of player that promotes the development of unhealthy obsessions from a certain type of fan.

I do (and have for a while) think we need to embrace the attitude of ensuring we get in the best players available and then structuring our side to use those resources in the way that best suits them. Not start out with an idea of what we want and try to contort recruitment and selection to match. Hopefully guys like Fort can have a strong enough individual brand that it comes out through their play at AFL level. We shall see.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

He's rubbish now,I wouldn't have him anywhere near the backline,he has no desperation simply goes to ground instead of making a contest and is a rabbit in the headlights when under any sort of pressure with the ball in hand and usually makes it his team mates problem to avoid the being tackled himself,put him down as no1 goal assist for the opposition,spud.

When Guthrie playing as a half back ran through the centre and had a couple of bounces and kicked that team lifting goal in the 3rd qtr of the 2013 PF i thought he was going to become a really top player - he is a mile off that now

However last year early in the year he did cop a very serious injury over in Perth ( where alot of players were getting injured by the hardness of the surface ) he was out for about 10-12 weeks - so last year was a write off

If he gets through all the pre season - and doesnt cop any injuries in games we will see how he goes - but it is a crunch year for him

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Yeah they do have stats that sort of measure that stuff, but they are very sketchy at best and don't really tell the story.
Did you see that video where it showed CD's stats on Dusty's tackles?
None of them were tackles.
That Eagles bloke who won the final in 17 against Port didn't get a stat for running the ball into the point post etc, even though it was play of the year.

Video on dustys tackle stats? Genuinely interested to see if you can share