Analysis Hawthorn rebuild: are they tanking?

[Bradkli]

McKenzie looks like he can play

He’s going to be a ripper. Along with Ward. Day. Macdonald and Newcombe. It’s the nucleus of what will hopefully be an elite midfield in 3/4 years time.

 

[SBYM]

I've only seen the score on the afl.com.au app, but that's enough.

This is the most outrageous cheating uncovered since Frankie and Betsy Andreu visited Lance Armstrong in hospital.

My Sunday is ruined.

 

[Ricky Vaughn]

Hawthorn do a fair bit right overall, and given Harley Reid looks one of the best no. 1 picks in the last 20 years, they even nail their spoon timing.

 

[SBYM]

Hawtank just doesn't have the same ring to it, though.

Carltank foreva!!

 

[carloss]

Forlorn Hawks

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

midfield not the biggest issue.
They'll get gassed as they build the ability to run games out. it's shallow, but it will continue to add depth with top 3 picks for the next 4-5 years.

the forward line needs a lot of work.
Breust is still their most dangerous outlet to goal. he's 32 and surely doesn't have many more seasons left.
for a team that watched what Buddy/Rough/Gunston could do to the comp, they've really gone dodoro on their forward stocks.

Lewis out with the knee.
Jeka hamstring.
Ramsden is very green.
Brockman was an emergency today.
Butler is battling with a few for that HF role.
We at least have some smaller types in reserve.

Pretty much the one player we couldn’t afford to go into the season missing, we lost, and without him as a focal point our forward line is very makeshift.

 

[windyhill]

Yes they are. They made us, us , look ******* good. It’s a big YES from me.

 

[Footy_Fan2007]

Dare I say it, Essendon looked quite slick at times.
Hawks won’t get belted every week unfortunately.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Was a disgraceful performance. Essendon are a bottom 5 side. Zero excuses today. Sam Mitchell copped an absolute lesson in the coaches box and our players got a massive wake up call…at least next week should be better…Sydney at the SCG

You've long said Hawks list is very thin.

Why then do you consider the effort today disgraceful? Isn't it simply expected?

 

[CharacterFirst]

The worry is two fold at least.


The tremendous physical toll the weekly beltings will have on young bodies.

The tremendous psychological toll the losses will take on young minds.



Confidence might be a rare commodity down Dingley way in the medium future.

Hawks could kill their culture and club confidence in the next 3 years.

Dangerous times ahead.

 

[peetoo]

If your club was as clever as you think they are, would the list be in the diabolical shape it is ?
Let’s not even contemplate the possible ramifications from the other little matter on the club’s plate at the moment.
History shows who is inevitably in the crosshairs as the losses drive the pressure from a bloodthirsty media intent on a scalp …

Media going very soft on on field right now

From what I hear it’s other clubs furious it wasn’t managed using a carpet as a tool

 

[peetoo]

Imagine if old Gil’s parting gift is to take draft picks off them

Hawks should just get Sydney’s lawyers to help out then

 

[NetworkNerd]

If the Hawks want to win a game. It might be Rd 10 vs Eagles in Tassie

Outside of that just bet against them each week. Essendon were paying 1.59 easy money

 

[Xtreme]

ANY team that loses to Essendon HAS to be tanking!!!

I thought all 17 other clubs took a vow that Essendon are never allowed to win ever again after bringing the game into disrepute!

 

[Bradkli]

If the Hawks want to win a game. It might be Rd 10 vs Eagles in Tassie

Outside of that just bet against them each week. Essendon were paying 1.59 easy money

I’ve written here numerous times that our first 6 matches are our best chance to get some wins… matches include- Essendon, North Melbourne, Adelaide in Tassie and GWS. That’s 4 teams not won’t play finals this season. if we don’t win at least 2 of our first 6, the wooden spoon is locked.

From round 7-17, west coast in Tassie is the only game I see us winning.

It’s going to be a very long season.

 

[Bradkli]

You've long said Hawks list is very thin.

Why then do you consider the effort today disgraceful? Isn't it simply expected?

I expected us to win today..especially with wright and stringer missing.

It was the way we lost. We will lose close to 20 games season which isn’t an issue. It’s how you lose. Today we were embarrassed by a team that’s had a terrible off-season, has a string of injuries to key players and will finish bottom 5.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

LOL go through every teams midfields and tell me who Newcombe replaces.
Adelaide - yep
Brisbane - no
Carlton - no
Collingwood - no
Essendon - yes
Fremantle - no
Geelong - no
GWS - maybe
Gold Coast - yes
Hawthorn - yes
Melbourne - no
North - maybe
Port Adelaide - no
Richmond - no
Sydney - no
St Kilda - yes
West Coast - yes
Western Bulldogs - no

6 yes as a starting mid, 2 maybes and 10 no - in my view. I'm sure you'll disagree.

People always way over estimate the difference between the poor sides and the good sides at the top level. We've now seen literally thousands of examples. Average players in good teams tend to be average players in average teams too. Good players in average teams are typically good players in good teams as well.

This time last year, people voted for Collingwood as having the worst list and 2nd most likely to win the spoon. Their midfield was supposedly their weakest point. A few months later, with exactly the same personnel, they had one of the best midfields in the league.

A year before that, it was the exact same scenario with Sydney.

The margin between a team in the top 4 vs a team in the bottom 4 is much smaller than we'd like to believe (which is why footy is so unpredictable week to week and teams can have massive changes in fortune from year to year, even with only minor changes ). The whole idea that most players in a bottom team wouldn't get a game in a top team is a fallacy.

Newcombe is the best mid in a poor midfield. Whist he wouldn't be the best mid at every club, the idea he wouldn't get good midfield time at every club is silly.

For example, you've picked Freo as a team he wouldn't. Yet Freo have recruited JOM from the Hawks and you watch him get one of the highest midfield loads at their club, despite Newcombe being miles ahead of JOM last season.

I could go through nearly every club and show you something similar if need be. Even you own. Last season, for example, Matthew Kennedy attended the 3rd highest CBA % for Carlton. Underatted as he may be, if you had Newcombe on your list I can guarantee he would get more midfield time that Matthew Kennedy.

 

[fnerd]

Way to early signs suggest Mitchell may have bitten off more than he can chew.

His comments about The Hawks having the core of their next premiership list after last year's draft and trade period will come back to haunt him. The arrogance.

Yerop.

Pretty much every hawks supporter in here agreed with him too!

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Way to early signs suggest Mitchell may have bitten off more than he can chew.

His comments about The Hawks having the core of their next premiership list after last year's draft and trade period will come back to haunt him. The arrogance.

You think the outcome of a Round 1 game changes anything about the talent on the list?

Those 13 players the footy dept identified are still on the list, but guess what… wait for it….they’re not the finished product 2 months later.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

You think the outcome of a Round 1 game changes anything about the talent on the list?

Those 13 players the footy dept identified are still on the list, but guess what… wait for it….they’re not the finished product 2 months later.

How many of those players will still be on Hawthorn's list in 4-5 years time (which is the time frame of when your next flag window opens)

Will Sammy Mitchell' even still be Hawthorn coach then ? Time will tell, it always does

 

[spudmaster]

Ayres, Eade, Knights, Loveridge, Paton, Matthews and co all finished with zero touches despite spending time on the ground today.
I think that answers the question.

 

[brutus76]

They had to cleanout and regenerate so essentially YES - they have a younger list than we do

Most of their 22 yesterday were 24 or under - they got some great kids in the last 2 drafts

So if they get Harley Reid (looks a star) and Luke McCabe

Luke Mccabe

Age

47

Ht

183cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

8.4

3star

HB

5.3

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.4

2star

HB

4.4

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.2

3star

's kid (key position player) at the draft this year it adds pieces to the puzzle and helps them ascend

 

[SBYM]

I reckon they need Jono Patton back in some sort of mentoring role.

 

[Shane Heard]

I’ll once again remind anyone who’s remotely interested ..about how HFC’s lord and saviour and favourite son went about things on his way to senior coach.

Quite bizarre…

 

[Shane Heard]

I reckon they need Jono Patton back in some sort of mentoring role.

You’re an ideas man