Racing July Daily Punt- Banana_bus vs the Hoops of Australia

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FallingLiefs

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Just sums up there isn't a horse in the country right now capable of repeating a high quality rating. Almost everything in that list was a once off spike where the horse was subsequently easily held by the same rivals it faced in the race it recorded its peak performance.

Also betting $1.01 that A Queen rating ends up being laughably too high.

Good to see the peoples champ still firmly ensconced in the top 10 though.
Well on past experience with how you rate AQ she will probably be the next winx.
 

iluvparis

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Well on past experience with how you rate AQ she will probably be the next winx.
More likely I end up being proven right as I was with Galaxy Cat - must be a good chance for zero wins outside WA if they are going an Everest prep and that Material Man form looked absolutely horrendous at the true top level.
 

eastaugh36

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Tomorrow, Morphettville Race 7 Classy Joe, Fawke elected to ride it last start over the stablemate who he had ridden previously at metro Saturday meetings and who went on to win the race and has its share of ability. It was strong last start and looks great odds at $8.
 

FallingLiefs

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to be honest I disagree strongly with a few things in the article, I have Material Man, Galaxy Star and Arcadia Queen equal at level weights. GS regressed about 1.5L in the winter but looked dour. Material Man should be cooked at his age but it hasn’t stopped him yet. Arcadia Queen should improve as spring 3yo going on 4 in its second prep. But If she doesn’t she’s smack back in a band of evenly matched horses at the top level in Australia who will take turns over further distances.

Also IMO her KT wasn’t a spike. It was only 1L better than her Guineas, and 1.5L better than her champ fillies. Very, very repeatable but again I don’t rate it as high as others.
 

FallingLiefs

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Also the fact that Daniel uses a WFA scale and that’s a spring 3yoF figure means there’s some 8kg allowance in it so in general she shouldn’t reach it again unless she improves equal or more than the WFA scale. Which generally doesn’t happen for spring 3yo’s.
 

iluvparis

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Also the fact that Daniel uses a WFA scale and that’s a spring 3yoF figure means there’s some 8kg allowance in it so in general she shouldn’t reach it again unless she improves equal or more than the WFA scale. Which generally doesn’t happen for spring 3yo’s.
Well that suggests his rating system is completely wrong - which probably explains the ludicrous ratings given to a number of 3yos in recent years.
 

FallingLiefs

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Well that suggests his rating system is completely wrong - which probably explains the ludicrous ratings given to a number of 3yos in recent years.
it's the same as Air Force Blue getting that absurd 128p timeform as a 2yo only to not improve at all at 3. the problem for people who give away their ratings is unless you know what improvement is factored in it's hard to predict where they go. I can say on my ratings MM would beat GS and then AQ in a race. at WFA that would go AQ, GS then MM. it's why i don't like referring to WFA scale.

sidenote: i can't understand how AFB is still the reigning timeform 2yo champ. surely a sign they underrate australian racing. by 2-5lb.
 
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HeathComeBack

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There's no such thing as G1 hcp's for squibs in the Northern Hemisphere - but nice try
he is the best 1000m horse in australia but that aint saying much. Usually our sprinters can hold up, not at the moment, absolute poo. As for our mid distance/stayers.. less said the better besides MJ AQ and VE
 

iluvparis

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Surely HAUNTED's best is good enough to win today's Ramornie. Question is whether he has gone over the top and this is a complete afterthought.
 

HeathComeBack

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That is the magical question dear Heatshy - he'd be a 6/4 shot without that blotting his copy book

And by 0-70 form you mean open city handicaps right?
still restricted class
anyway my tip i last years winner Havasay, even though its got disgusting form. its biorhythms are through the roof so it gives you something to cheer against!

2 time conqueror of Nature STrip is going around in the next at Sandown, Sams Image. should win by 343 lengths if we are going by Timeform ratings
 
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