Strategy Slow starts...what can be done?!

[Duckimus Prime]

Maybe this?

Just like to point out that the pre-game footage showed Port players doing competitive physical contact in the rooms pregame, then switched to Collingwood, who were giving each other hugs and pats on the back.

Guess which team started with intensity in the match.

 

[Port85]

I think it may have had various causes to begin with, but now it's in the players heads that we often start poorly away from home.

It's probably causing many of the players to question their positioning and tactics during the quarter ("Am I pressuring up hard enough, do I run forward or back now, do I lead now or hold, do I stand inside or outside my opponent at stoppage"? and that puts them about a second behind in their thinking which is what makes the entire team look like they're lagging behind their opponent or miss a target by 10m because they're caught in two minds.

I don't know what the solution is but I'd probably be considering, especially away from home, a very simple - specific game plan (e.g. if you win the clearance, hack it forward for Dixon and pressure up, if you lose the clearance flood back like mofos and fill up space - that's it, nothing more complex) for the first 8-10 minutes to try ensure that no matter what happens in the midfield we're not 4 goals down straight away. That way if we're under the pump early we don't have players trying to hit pinpoint passes into the corridor when everyone's flat-footed and uncertain of their positioning.

Then can worry about all the other tactics discussed during the week once we're NOT 30pts down already.

Basically starting with a simple Plan B (Hinkley Plan B lol) for a few minutes, then reverting.

 

[Coobk001]

I've been giving this some thought and I think it all comes down to complacency. There is a high level of confidence within our team - which is not necessarily a bad thing, but in this case it can be. So we start games with the mindset that we're better than the opposition and that the game will be played on our terms. Sometimes the opposition won't start well and things will work out OK, but other times the opposition will actually start with a high level of intensity which we are not mentally prepared to match. The solution would be to respect our opposition more, but that can be a double edged sword. It's a tough one.

I feel there's something in this.

For me though, I feel like it is more a desire to play easy football. I'll explain.

We seem to have this desire to play bruise free football whenever we think we will win, or whenever a game gets to the point where we have control. I don't know if it is an instruction to avoid injury, but we rarely go for the jugular, and we rarely come out with any sort of ferocity. This has been evident several times this year, Vs North, Essendon, Carlton.

I feel like we start games slow, not really enjoying the early heat, and then as the tempo and heat eases our boys get really involved.

And personally as I've been saying since 2018 now, this lack of intensity to start games is a huge worry because I think the sample size is large enough to say we just might not have that extra gear to go to.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Every single Port supporter can plainly see that we are generally a very poor first quarter team.

Our poor starts happen far too regularly for it to just be that we are simply beaten on the day. There is some serious questions that need too be asked as to why we are never mentally switched on from the first bounce.

Is this coaching or is this the players? My view is simple, it’s the coaches role too get the team ready from the moment they step on the field. We have failed at this for years now.

We simply will not ever be competitive if we constantly give up a multiple goal lead to the opposition.

Here’s our first quarter stats for this year:

- We won only 10/24 first quarters for the year. That’s a win rate of about 40% for a team that finished 2nd.

- We won 4/10 first quarters against top 8 opponents. Again sitting at the 40% win rate.

- In 6 games we were at least 3 goals behind at the end of the first quarter.

- In 6 games the opposition had at least 8 scoring shots in the first quarter. While a further 3 had 7 scoring shots. Indicating we are allowing far too much space early.

- We lost 4 first quarters against the bottom 4 teams.

- We won 6/13 first quarters at Home games. Again lower than 50% win rate and at home with the crowd is very disappointing.

So what is the issue with us continually starting slow and how do we address this? The stats show that it’s not only the top 8 teams that we start slow against but in general we are behind against more than half of the games we play and a number of the bottom teams too.

Whats the solution and what are we doing pre game that is impacting our mental preparedness?

 

[Port85]

Mate. It doesn’t matter, under Ken if we fix one thing something else pops up.

2021 - poor starts
2020 - mids smashed against top teams
2019 - through the press
2018 - can defend, can’t score
2017 - most inside 50s, can’t finish off
2016 - idk something s**t probably
2015 - missing pieces don’t do s**t
2014 - blow top 4 and blow the first quarter of a prelim
2013 - one good year from nowhere

* Ken.

 

[PJ Power]

The centre square mids - Lycett, Boak and Wines - are often poor starters individually and as a group.
Our backs then look bamboozled with the ball coming in so quickly and repeatedly.
The forwards don’t convert precious early chances and let the ball get waltzed out of our forward 50 with no pressure at all.

 

[all seeing eye]

Like most of our problems it is critically linked to the midfield. They set the tone for the game and we remain average in this area. It is highlighted against the best teams.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

If the issue is the midfield, why has this not been addressed? We’ve had so many different variations over the years as our starting set up and we are regularly beaten regardless.

what are our mids doing pre game? Why are they not mentally switched on?

 

[philthy05]

There’s 3 big issues here.

1. I’ve banged on about this for a while and have stepped it up in light of this failure but lycett has been flaky as hell early in games. How many times has he started games and had his ass kicked by a spud no name ruckman to then peg it back as the game goes on? It’s fine when we’ve played s**t teams and been able to peg the lead back then lycetts played well later but too often it’s cost us.

2. We have (and have for years across many different midfield coaches?) horrible midfield setups to start games where we seem to be banking on the fact we will win the ball as if it’s written by the gods.

In the first 5 minutes of a port game any opposition centre mid who gets 2 hands on a ball is guaranteed to be able to run the ball out of the middle with zero pressure looking like peak Chris Judd. We never ever have mids in a position to stop them.

3. Too many of our defenders like to play from behind, and if our opponents get quick ball entry (like is prone to happen to us) they get exposed. So when teams get quick starts in the midfield our defenders also get caught out.

 

[Macca19]

The two takeaways i'll have from the Hinkley era in 40 years time when i'm on my death bed and my grandkids ask me about Port are going to be:
1) s**t starts
2) Terrible accuracy at goal
3) unstoppable opposition runs of 5+ goals

Sadly, s**t starts have been an issue from year 1 under Ken.

Round 2 2013 - GWS 4.4 to 1.3 22 minutes in. We won comfortably
Round 5 2013 - WC 4.4 to 1.0 at 1/4 time. 38 down at half time. famous victory.
Round 6 2013 - North 7.2 to 1.5 at 1/4 time.
Round 7 2013 - Richmond 8.2 to 2.1 at 1/4 time.
Round 9 2013 - Geelong 7.1 to 0.4 at 1/4 time

Didnt happen all that much in 2014 (inaccuracy) or 2015 (Generally blown away in 2nd quarters before coming back and falling short), but from 2016 it started to happen again.

Round 2 2016 - Ade 6.4 to 1.2
Round 4 2016 - GWS 6.6 to 3.1. 20 points down in 10 minutes
Round 20 2016 - Syd 6.5 to 0.0
Round 21 2016 - Mel 4.3 to 1.2

Round 12 2017 - Ess 7.6 to 1.3
Round 18 2017 - Mel 4.4 to 0.3
Elim Final 2017 - WC 4.2 to 1.0

Round 4 2018 - Ess 5.2 to 2.2. 18 points down in 5 minutes
Round 18 2018 - GWS 4.3 to 1.0. Kicked 1st goal then didnt score again
Round 23 2018 - Ess 6.4 to 1.1

Round 7 2019 - Coll 7.6 to 0.3
Round 10 2019 - Haw 4.4 to 0.0
Round 17 2019 - Bris 7.1 to 2.1. The Sutcliffe Terrorise game. 24-0 in 8 minutes
Round 22 2019 - North 6.3 to 1.1

Round 3 2021 - WC 5.3 to 1.1
Round 7 2021 - Bris 4.5 to 1.2
Round 9 2021 - WB 6.2 to 2.1
Round 13 2021 - Gee 20-6 after 15 minutes
Round 23 2021 - WB 24-2 after 10 minutes
Prelim Final 2021 - WB 7.2 to 1.1. 32-0 in 16 minutes

Thats just the obvious ones. Plenty of others we've started slowly and then kicked goals to level it at 1/4 time. Plenty of others we've been blown away in the 2nd quarter with 5-6 consecutive goals.

Its just a bad mental trend. Not good enough.

 

[tribey]

How many of us turned to mates during the Adelaide and Carlton games and said, “if we were playing a good team we’d be 10 goals down”.

Turned out to be the case, shockingly.

 

[HinkleysHeroes]

The two takeaways i'll have from the Hinkley era in 40 years time when i'm on my death bed and my grandkids ask me about Port are going to be:
1) sh*t starts
2) Terrible accuracy at goal
3) unstoppable opposition runs of 5+ goals

Sadly, sh*t starts have been an issue from year 1 under Ken.

Round 2 2013 - GWS 4.4 to 1.3 22 minutes in. We won comfortably
Round 5 2013 - WC 4.4 to 1.0 at 1/4 time. 38 down at half time. famous victory.
Round 6 2013 - North 7.2 to 1.5 at 1/4 time.
Round 7 2013 - Richmond 8.2 to 2.1 at 1/4 time.
Round 9 2013 - Geelong 7.1 to 0.4 at 1/4 time

Didnt happen all that much in 2014 (inaccuracy) or 2015 (Generally blown away in 2nd quarters before coming back and falling short), but from 2016 it started to happen again.

Round 2 2016 - Ade 6.4 to 1.2
Round 4 2016 - GWS 6.6 to 3.1. 20 points down in 10 minutes
Round 20 2016 - Syd 6.5 to 0.0
Round 21 2016 - Mel 4.3 to 1.2

Round 12 2017 - Ess 7.6 to 1.3
Round 18 2017 - Mel 4.4 to 0.3
Elim Final 2017 - WC 4.2 to 1.0

Round 4 2018 - Ess 5.2 to 2.2. 18 points down in 5 minutes
Round 18 2018 - GWS 4.3 to 1.0. Kicked 1st goal then didnt score again
Round 23 2018 - Ess 6.4 to 1.1

Round 7 2019 - Coll 7.6 to 0.3
Round 10 2019 - Haw 4.4 to 0.0
Round 17 2019 - Bris 7.1 to 2.1. The Sutcliffe Terrorise game. 24-0 in 8 minutes
Round 22 2019 - North 6.3 to 1.1

Round 3 2021 - WC 5.3 to 1.1
Round 7 2021 - Bris 4.5 to 1.2
Round 9 2021 - WB 6.2 to 2.1
Round 13 2021 - Gee 20-6 after 15 minutes
Round 23 2021 - WB 24-2 after 10 minutes
Prelim Final 2021 - WB 7.2 to 1.1. 32-0 in 16 minutes

Thats just the obvious ones. Plenty of others we've started slowly and then kicked goals to level it at 1/4 time. Plenty of others we've been blown away in the 2nd quarter with 5-6 consecutive goals.

Its just a bad mental trend. Not good enough.

This just shows us that the players do not know how to stop the oppositions run. It happens throughout games also, not just at start of quarters.

 

[Kickpuncher]

How many of us turned to mates during the Adelaide and Carlton games and said, “if we were playing a good team we’d be 10 goals down”.

Turned out to be the case, shockingly.

Said it at least 6 or 7 times this year.

 

[Shaucob_Burjan]

Inaccuracy didn't happen in 2013-2014 because Schulz and Wingard carried that lol.

Look what happened when they left though.

Hell Dixon coming into Port was regarded as one of the best setshots in the league as a Sun. Farrell was regarded as the best setshot in his draft year. Georgiades has one of the best kicking techniques in the AFL.

Why is it suddenly an issue when they put on a PA Guernsey?

 

[PowerBaz]

Inaccuracy didn't happen in 2013-2014 because Schulz and Wingard carried that lol.

Look what happened when they left though.

Hell Dixon coming into Port was regarded as one of the best setshots in the league as a Sun. Farrell was regarded as the best setshot in his draft year. Georgiades has one of the best kicking techniques in the AFL.

Why is it suddenly an issue when they put on a PA Guernsey?

It’s like they believe there is a problem and somehow it turns into it.

Need a new coach, circuit breaker.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

2. we seem to be banking on the fact we will win the ball as if it’s written by the gods.

In the first 5 minutes of a port game any opposition centre mid who gets 2 hands on a ball is guaranteed to be able to run the ball out of the middle with zero pressure looking like peak Chris Judd. We never ever have mids in a position to stop them.

That is a huge part that frustrates the hell out of me early in games and ties completely into the coaches stubbornness.

We always hear the line that we will play the Port Adelaide way and not worry about the opposition.

Too many times early in games our midfield set ups are wrong or we just assume Lycett will win the tap. Then when we start loosing we just assume this will auto correct itself without making any tactical changes in the midfield to gain the upper hand.

It’s not only centre bounces but even around the ground. I lost count last night at how many early stoppages they just have free players out the back completely unaccounted for. Meanwhile our players are in position expecting to just win the ball but are then completely out of position defensively when we inevitably loose.

Therefor creating repeat entries and our backs are exposed.

It takes too long for the coaches too make some tactical changes which are different to what they expected pre game. By then we’re usually already 6/7/8 goals down and out.

 

[VineValerian]

The centre square mids - Lycett, Boak and Wines - are often poor starters individually and as a group.
Our backs then look bamboozled with the ball coming in so quickly and repeatedly.
The forwards don’t convert precious early chances and let the ball get waltzed out of our forward 50 with no pressure at all.

Every single Port supporter can plainly see that we are generally a very poor first quarter team.

Our poor starts happen far too regularly for it to just be that we are simply beaten on the day. There is some serious questions that need too be asked as to why we are never mentally switched on from the first bounce.

Is this coaching or is this the players? My view is simple, it’s the coaches role too get the team ready from the moment they step on the field. We have failed at this for years now.

We simply will not ever be competitive if we constantly give up a multiple goal lead to the opposition.

Here’s our first quarter stats for this year:

- We won only 10/24 first quarters for the year. That’s a win rate of about 40% for a team that finished 2nd.

- We won 4/10 first quarters against top 8 opponents. Again sitting at the 40% win rate.

- In 6 games we were at least 3 goals behind at the end of the first quarter.

- In 6 games the opposition had at least 8 scoring shots in the first quarter. While a further 3 had 7 scoring shots. Indicating we are allowing far too much space early.

- We lost 4 first quarters against the bottom 4 teams.

- We won 6/13 first quarters at Home games. Again lower than 50% win rate and at home with the crowd is very disappointing.

So what is the issue with us continually starting slow and how do we address this? The stats show that it’s not only the top 8 teams that we start slow against but in general we are behind against more than half of the games we play and a number of the bottom teams too.

Whats the solution and what are we doing pre game that is impacting our mental preparedness?

We exist to spud it up in the first quarters.

Just call us the 40% club.
We do everything at 40% instead of 100%

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

We exist to spud it up in the first quarters.

Just call us the 40% club.
We do everything at 40% instead of 100%

I’m genuinely surprised we even managed to win 40% of our first qtrs. Thought it would have been much lower than that

 

[TeeKray]

I’m genuinely surprised we even managed to win 40% of our first qtrs. Thought it would have been much lower than that

I'd love to know the stats for first goal as well, reckon that'd be well lower than 40%.

Even the freaking SUNS kicked the first goal against us before proceeding to kick 1 more goal for the rest of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters combined.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

I'd love to know the stats for first goal as well, reckon that'd be well lower than 40%.

Even the freaking SUNS kicked the first goal against us before proceeding to kick 1 more goal for the rest of the 1st, 2nd and 3rd quarters combined.

So because I have nothing better to do, I have gone through our games too find out just how often we do give up the first goal.

We scored the first goal in 11/24 games. 45% of games which is consistent with our first quarter winning percentage. I am actually surprised that it is even that high.

Our most common first goal scorers have been;
Dixon x 3
Marshall x 2
Butters x 2

In 5 games in which we gave up the first goal, the opposition also went on too kick at least the first 4 goals before we scored. That’s the biggest disappointment in these stats but no surprise too any of us. Going down 4+ goals on 5 occasions in the first quarter alone is a disgrace.

The season played out as follows in regards to first goal scorers in each of our games.

Round 1 V kangaroos - Amon
Round 2 V Bombers - Dixon
Round 3 V WCE - Tim Kelly (Eagles kicked the first 4 goals)
Round 4 V Richmond - Butters
Round 5 V Carlton - Dixon
Round 6 V Saints - Jack Higgins
Round 7 V Lions - Mcstay
Round 8 V Ade - Dixon
Round 9 V Dogs - Fantasia (Dogs next 5)
Round 10 V Pies - Brodie Grundy (Pies first 4)
Round 11 V Freo - Georgiades
Round 13 V Cats - Jeremy Cameron
Round 14 V GCS - Ben King
Round 15 V Sydney - Marshall
Round 16 V Hawks - Luke Breust
Round 17 V Melbourne - Luke Jackson
Round 18 V Saints - Jack Steele
Round 19 V Pies - Brodie Mihocek
Round 20 V GWS - Jesse Hogan
Round 21 V Ade - Butters
Round 22 V Carl - Marshall
Round 23 Dogs - Bont (first 4 goals)

QF V Cats - Motlop
PF V Dogs - Bailey Smith (first 5 goals)

So in the 13/24 games which the opposition scored the first goal, it was by the following player types;

- Key forward X 6
- Small forward X 2
- Midfielder (inc ruck) X 5

Disappointingly, in only 2 games against top 8 teams during the season did we kick the first goal. Just like the Prelim, another clear sign we are not mentally or structurally prepared for the better teams.

 

[Port85]

So I had a look at the stats for all of 2021.

We were by far the best team at preventing scores from stoppages in Q2-4 for 2021, by a fair distance from the second best team.

Q1 we were bottom 4.


For turnovers we were the fourth best team at preventing scores from turnover Q2-4 and 7th for Q1, so not really a massive difference. Centre bounces were not a big strength or weakness at any point of the game.

Scoring from stoppages doesn't seem to be a big deal either at any point of the game.

So something is happening at stoppage around the ground at the start of games and then we adjust and dominate defensively after quarter time. Now I don't really know what's happening but if I had to guess, its probably a +1 out the back of stoppage to slow down exits and for some reason we don't start with that plan.

 

[Pappagallo]

Mate. It doesn’t matter, under Ken if we fix one thing something else pops up.

2021 - poor starts
2020 - mids smashed against top teams
2019 - through the press
2018 - can defend, can’t score
2017 - most inside 50s, can’t finish off
2016 - idk something sh*t probably
2015 - missing pieces don’t do sh*t
2014 - blow top 4 and blow the first quarter of a prelim
2013 - one good year from nowhere

fu** Ken.

It’s actually hilarious how many different game styles we’ve had under Ken. I mean how do the extremes of 2014 free-wheeling shotgun footy and 2018 park the bus and clamp the wheels footy even come out of the same brain? Do we crank a strategy bingo barrel at the start of the season?

Most successful coaches have a general “way” they go about things. Ken doesn’t. He has no confidence or conviction in how things should be done. He simply reacts to the way of others.

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Some further analysis of our total scores in the first quarter for us and against us, at Adelaide Oval and Away.

Throughout the season and finals, our total score H&A in first quarters was 64.53 = 437 and the oppositions score was 66.73 = 469. Total result in first quarters is minus 32 which isn’t too bad overall. Scoring shots wise, we have scored 22 times less that then opposition in first quarters. Which as we can see, indicates a lot of the extra scores against us are behinds and that -32 points could be a lot lot higher.

Looking at our first quarters at AO
- Our score 43.29 = 287
- Opposition at AO 34.36 = 240
- At home games, we only scored 47 points extra than our opposition over 13 games, or we are ahead 3.6 points. That is all our home ground advantage is at AO in first qtrs, 3.6 points.
- We’ve had 72 scoring shots at AO, compared to the opposition 70.
- Throughout the year, we only had 2 more scoring shots on our home ground than the opposition.
- At AO, 59% of our scoring shots are goals
- Compared to the opposition, 48%. Their inaccuracy is the only reason we positive 47

Looking at us in away games
- Our scores away are 21.24 = 150
- The opposition at their home scored 32.37 = 229
- During away games we are down by 79 points.
- On average, opposition teams score 20.8 points on their home ground. Compared to us, 13.6. On average, we are 7.2 points behind when we play away.
- We had only 45 scoring shots in first quarters in away games. Compared too 69 for opposition teams on their home ground. 24 less scoring shots and an indication in many of our away games we should have been a lot further behind.
- Away games, our goal accuracy drops too 46%
- While opposition teams at home, are also at 46%. However again as above, they’ve had 24 extra shots and should be ahead by more.

Opposition teams at AO compared to their Home ground
-This one is glaring, it shows opposition teams are almost statistically the same when comparing how opposition score at AO and how they score at their own home ground against us
- Opposition teams at AO scored 240 points, while opposition at their own home ground scored 229.
- Opposition teams scored 11 points more on AO than teams we played at their own home ground (2 extra games at AO). That’s an average score of 18.4 on AO and 20.8 on their home grounds. Opposition teams only score 2.6pts less on AO than their home games


Key points
- We scored 137 more points in first quarters at AO compared to away from home. Showing as much as we think we travel well, we do not score well early. This may be an indication that once again we are not mentally prepared for opposition crowds and a hostile environment
- Although we score better at AO in first quarters, we allow other teams too also score easily. Indicated by allowing them 70 scoring shots compared to our 72.

Statistically, we have absolutely no advantage early on playing at AO (Other than better goal accuracy) but we are horrific when away. A difference of 27 scoring shots differential between home and away is shocking. We are lucky in away games we are on average only behind by 7.2 points and a lot of that is simply due too poor goal kicking on their behalf.

 

[Enviable Tradition]

It’s actually hilarious how many different game styles we’ve had under Ken. I mean how do the extremes of 2014 free-wheeling shotgun footy and 2018 park the bus and clamp the wheels footy even come out of the same brain? Do we crank a strategy bingo barrel at the start of the season?

Most successful coaches have a general “way” they go about things. Ken doesn’t. He has no confidence or conviction in how things should be done. He simply reacts to the way of others.

It's because Ken isn't smart enough to come up with a game style. So it changes with the wind, I mean assistants.

#sackken

 

[RossFC]

Thought this quote would be relevant here.

It would be nice to get away with a competitive first quarter for a change. We have managed 9.16 in seven games this season and 5.2 of that came from one game!