Strategy List Management 101

[SGBeach]

True, it isn't all being cleared at once, but it was cleared last year and then it wasn't used on bringing players in. Some of that money will have gone in to improved deals for players already on the list, but not all of it.



He underestimated the cap by $2 million, a significant amount, when he came to the conclusion that we wouldn't have much to spend. Adding the extra $2 million to the equation doesn't necessarily mean we have that amount to spend because we are working with very incomplete information on what amount different players are actually on, but I think it is reasonable to conclude that with the salaries dumped last year and a large number of retirements this year there should be more than $1 million of cap space to use on new signings, which should be enough to pay for two key best 22 players.

Yep, two key best 22 players.. and hopefully a 21yo who's got potential but not quite getting a run

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

The 95% floor is ludicrous. Many 'good ordinary players' are being relatively overpaid.

I would like our club to keep a decent margin in each new contract allowing for performance based contracts. In a rubbish year like 2019 as an example we would risk dropping below the 95%. I would rather return money to the AFL for falling below the floor than reward mediocre performance.

 

[robbieando]

The 95% floor is ludicrous. Many 'good ordinary players' are being relatively overpaid.

I would like our club to keep a decent margin in each new contract allowing for performance based contracts. In a rubbish year like 2019 as an example we would risk dropping below the 95%. I would rather return money to the AFL for falling below the floor than reward mediocre performance.

You don't return money to the AFL. You return money to the players to spread between themselves so that you always pay the players 95%

 

[robbieando]

True, it isn't all being cleared at once, but it was cleared last year and then it wasn't used on bringing players in. Some of that money will have gone in to improved deals for players already on the list, but not all of it.

Hence why I said there will be some money to spend.

He underestimated the cap by $2 million, a significant amount, when he came to the conclusion that we wouldn't have much to spend.

But he on the same hand underestimated what some of our highearners would be making because salary's aren't made public.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

You don't return money to the AFL. You return money to the players to spread between themselves so that you always pay the players 95%

Damn.

 

[Kapanis]

You don't return money to the AFL. You return money to the players to spread between themselves so that you always pay the players 95%

Do players get a bonus if they win a game like some other codes?

 

[robbieando]

Do players get a bonus if they win a game like some other codes?

If its negotiated into their contract, then yes. But not automatically. If they have a win bonus its included in the cap like all other bonuses.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

If its negotiated into their contract, then yes. But not automatically. If they have a win bonus its included in the cap like all other bonuses.

Surely it makes sense to negotiate base and performance elements in each contract. The bonus elements would reflect on team and individual achievement.

 

[robbieando]

Surely it makes sense to negotiate base and performance elements in each contract. The bonus elements would reflect on team and individual achievement.

Most first and second year players, as well as rookie list players have set base rates with bonus for each game played. Past that it doesn't make much sense in a salary cap as a club would have to allow for the prospect of all bonuses being paid out when figuring out their final cap number, thus you would be creating a large unspent each and risk missing the cap floor.

 

[RobbieK]

But he on the same hand underestimated what some of our highearners would be making because salary's aren't made public.

Do you mean "overestimated", because if he underestimated the cap AND underestimated the salaries of the players who are retiring then that just suggests there will be even more money available, not less...?

 

[robbieando]

Do you mean "overestimated", because if he underestimated the cap AND underestimated the salaries of the players who are retiring then that just suggests there will be even more money available, not less...?

Not any of our retiring players.

 

[RobbieK]

Not any of our retiring players.

Ah right, you mean Heeney, Mills, et al.

It would be nice if the league was a bit more transparent about this like the American sports and just publicly published what each team was paying to each player.

 

[swansfan51]

Episode 6 - The 3 types of List Management currency and how to use them

Hello all, a long time between posts! I am going to write episode 7 as a review of the Swans' list

Episode 7 - Sydney Swans list review

It has taken almost a year, but here is the promised land. First I'll mention the big elephant in the room that I'm not going to write about: the salary cap. I have no idea what the Swans' current salary cap status is, and neither do you. I wish this wasn't the case, because I would love to analyse and take the numbers apart. But since none of us know the facts, I'm not going to discuss it. I've already stated my hunch in the thread, which is that we have a lot less salary cap space than most think.

Age and experience profile (AKA can we win the premiership?)
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 4

Right now we have 19 players on the list with 50+ games experience, and another 5 players with 25+ games experience. This is a mid-tier experience level in the league. The equal least-experienced premiership teams in AFL history were the Brisbane Lions in 2001 and the Western Bulldogs in 2016 (17 players), and we have higher experience levels than them. A 'standard' premiership squad across the history of the AFL requires 20-23 players with 50+ games experience at the start of the year.

We currently have a mathematically premiership capable list. This does not mean I think we will win the premiership, it just means it isn't completely impossible. We could bring in a number of experienced recruits to join the squad over the trade period. I'm sure this is something the club is considering.

Age profile is far less important than experience profile, and there's a long history of mature-age recruits being able to have a fantastic impact in their first AFL season (unlike 18 year old draftees). I also don't want to get into the Bigfooty nonsense of arguing over whose list is the youngest and therefore the "Bigfooty age champions". But our list is very bottom heavy at the moment with 11 teenagers and another 8 aged 20-21. Many of these players will fail so we should expect a period of sustained high list turnover for the next couple of seasons. The players aged 30+ next year will be Franklin, Kennedy, Rampe, and Sinclair, who all play key positions.

Position valuations and list currency
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 1

Tier 1 - Key Position Forwards

Sydney has deployed a lot of list currency onto key forwards, reflecting their status as by far the most valuable players in the game. The club is currently stocked with Lance Franklin (32), Nick Blakey (19), Sam Reid (27), and Tom McCartin (19). Because key forwards are more valuable than any other position, these players should be developed there as a first priority and only used in other positions if they cannot cut it as key forwards. The club has spent an appropriate amount of focus developing this area over the past 6 years with the recruitment of Franklin and Blakey and this is currently an area of relative strength. More work will be needed to ensure this continues after Franklin's departure.

Tier 2 - Elite midfielders

Unfortunately this area has been almost completely neglected. The club has had 2 of its 4 midfielders leave in recent years, Mitchell to Hawthorn and Hannebery to St Kilda. A 3rd, Josh Kennedy, is now 31 and can no longer carry the rest of the team. The last remaining member is Luke Parker (26) and his support squad is now Hewett (23), Heeney (23), Jones (24), and Florent (21). Those support players will need substantial development.

Currency assessment - where are our most valuable assets?

Key forwards are a solid area, at least for a little while. Key defenders are an area of solid competency with Dane Rampe (excellent but undersized) and Aliir Aliir (excellent intercept player with lesser man-on-man defence) lacking support. These along with elite midfielders are the top 3 tiers of player value.

Unfortunately many of our other assets are being used in low valuation areas. These include Jake Lloyd (small/medium defender), Tom Papley (small forward), Will Hayward (small/medium forward), Callum Mills (small/medium defender). The club has had an unfortunate recent history of spending high draft picks on bits and pieces players or halfback flankers rather than players with excellent midfield potential. I'd like to see a focus on deploying top draft and trade assets only on the top tiers for a little while.

Sydney's top 5 most valuable assets are:

1) Isaac Heeney
2) Luke Parker
3) Nick Blakey
4) 2019 first round pick
5) Oliver Florent

I'd say the next batch in no particular order are Aliir Aliir, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Zak Jones, Jordan Dawson, and 2020 first round pick.

Lance Franklin has no currency value due to his $4.9m contractual obligation over the next 3 years. If McCartin succeeds as a key forward he will rapidly move towards the very top of the asset tree, as will anyone who can step up as an elite midfielder.

28! Its a magic number
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 2

How are we tracking for our 28 in 2020? The 19 players with 50+ games experience are automatic inclusions. Then there are:

20 - Lewis Melican
21 - Tom McCartin
22 - Ben Ronke
23 - Sam Naismith
24 - Jordan Dawson
25 - Nick Blakey
26 - Colin O'Riordan
27 - James Rowbottom
28 - James Rose

I am comfortable that the club has 28 players for next year. Ideally some recruits will come in and push players like Thurlow, Rose, Naismith, Ronke, Melican out of the 28.

Summary and what should we do?

The Swans list is not as inexperienced as many people think. The average age is dragged down by 11 teenagers and will be dragged down further by the national and rookie drafts, but that is a red herring. There is a solid experienced core of 19 players with 50+ games experience, and they could be joined by experienced recruits as well as McCartin, and maybe even Ronke or Melican next year.

The Swans have not allocated enough attention and resources into building elite midfielders, this is an area of substantial weakness and needs to be addressed. There are some assets that we have paid midfield prices for, that are not yet delivering enough there. These include Callum Mills, Matthew Ling, Zak Jones, and Will Hayward.

In the 2019 offseason the Swans should cut aggressively from the 19(!!!!!!!!) 18-21 years olds on the list, and delist those that will not become above average AFL players. I can think of at least 9. They should then recycle with a large intake of draftees, rinse and repeat.

The Swans' 2019 first round pick, currently #4, is one of their top currency assets and must be either traded for a quality player in Tier 1 (KPF) or 2 (elite midfield), or used to draft a player in one of those categories. It should not under any circumstances be used on another Tier 4-5 asset like a halfback flanker. Later picks or other assets can be used to target ruckmen, key defenders, and small forwards which are areas we could improve (particularly if Papley departs).

 

[The King!]

Great work as always this is why I think Clarke is a waste of a list spot he won’t ever be anything of value to a good side

 

[Punts]

Funny that we neglect the midfield and get rid of Mitchell

Sneaky guess is that they Parker is,was better and that Heeney and mills would take control

How things change

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

One of the things i look forward to on this board list management analysis great stuff swansfan51

 

[caesar88]

No idea why our midfield is such an area of weakness for us. None at all

 

[Dan87]

The one flip side to mid valuation is that they tend to be the most available type of player on the trade market. And the type most likely to seek a trade to move up the pecking order. As they are the most likely to be in a pecking order.

 

[mtooler]

Episode 7 - Sydney Swans list review

It has taken almost a year, but here is the promised land. First I'll mention the big elephant in the room that I'm not going to write about: the salary cap. I have no idea what the Swans' current salary cap status is, and neither do you. I wish this wasn't the case, because I would love to analyse and take the numbers apart. But since none of us know the facts, I'm not going to discuss it. I've already stated my hunch in the thread, which is that we have a lot less salary cap space than most think.

Age and experience profile (AKA can we win the premiership?)
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 4

Right now we have 19 players on the list with 50+ games experience, and another 5 players with 25+ games experience. This is a mid-tier experience level in the league. The equal least-experienced premiership teams in AFL history were the Brisbane Lions in 2001 and the Western Bulldogs in 2016 (17 players), and we have higher experience levels than them. A 'standard' premiership squad across the history of the AFL requires 20-23 players with 50+ games experience at the start of the year.

We currently have a mathematically premiership capable list. This does not mean I think we will win the premiership, it just means it isn't completely impossible. We could bring in a number of experienced recruits to join the squad over the trade period. I'm sure this is something the club is considering.

Age profile is far less important than experience profile, and there's a long history of mature-age recruits being able to have a fantastic impact in their first AFL season (unlike 18 year old draftees). I also don't want to get into the Bigfooty nonsense of arguing over whose list is the youngest and therefore the "Bigfooty age champions". But our list is very bottom heavy at the moment with 11 teenagers and another 8 aged 20-21. Many of these players will fail so we should expect a period of sustained high list turnover for the next couple of seasons. The players aged 30+ next year will be Franklin, Kennedy, Rampe, and Sinclair, who all play key positions.

Position valuations and list currency
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 1

Tier 1 - Key Position Forwards

Sydney has deployed a lot of list currency onto key forwards, reflecting their status as by far the most valuable players in the game. The club is currently stocked with Lance Franklin (32), Nick Blakey (19), Sam Reid (27), and Tom McCartin (19). Because key forwards are more valuable than any other position, these players should be developed there as a first priority and only used in other positions if they cannot cut it as key forwards. The club has spent an appropriate amount of focus developing this area over the past 6 years with the recruitment of Franklin and Blakey and this is currently an area of relative strength. More work will be needed to ensure this continues after Franklin's departure.

Tier 2 - Elite midfielders

Unfortunately this area has been almost completely neglected. The club has had 2 of its 4 midfielders leave in recent years, Mitchell to Hawthorn and Hannebery to St Kilda. A 3rd, Josh Kennedy, is now 31 and can no longer carry the rest of the team. The last remaining member is Luke Parker (26) and his support squad is now Hewett (23), Heeney (23), Jones (24), and Florent (21). Those support players will need substantial development.

Currency assessment - where are our most valuable assets?

Key forwards are a solid area, at least for a little while. Key defenders are an area of solid competency with Dane Rampe (excellent but undersized) and Aliir Aliir (excellent intercept player with lesser man-on-man defence) lacking support. These along with elite midfielders are the top 3 tiers of player value.

Unfortunately many of our other assets are being used in low valuation areas. These include Jake Lloyd (small/medium defender), Tom Papley (small forward), Will Hayward (small/medium forward), Callum Mills (small/medium defender). The club has had an unfortunate recent history of spending high draft picks on bits and pieces players or halfback flankers rather than players with excellent midfield potential. I'd like to see a focus on deploying top draft and trade assets only on the top tiers for a little while.

Sydney's top 5 most valuable assets are:

1) Isaac Heeney
2) Luke Parker
3) Nick Blakey
4) 2019 first round pick
5) Oliver Florent

I'd say the next batch in no particular order are Aliir Aliir, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, Zak Jones, Jordan Dawson, and 2020 first round pick.

Lance Franklin has no currency value due to his $4.9m contractual obligation over the next 3 years. If McCartin succeeds as a key forward he will rapidly move towards the very top of the asset tree, as will anyone who can step up as an elite midfielder.

28! Its a magic number
Recommended pre-reading: Episode 2

How are we tracking for our 28 in 2020? The 19 players with 50+ games experience are automatic inclusions. Then there are:

20 - Lewis Melican
21 - Tom McCartin
22 - Ben Ronke
23 - Sam Naismith
24 - Jordan Dawson
25 - Nick Blakey
26 - Colin O'Riordan
27 - James Rowbottom
28 - James Rose

I am comfortable that the club has 28 players for next year. Ideally some recruits will come in and push players like Thurlow, Rose, Naismith, Ronke, Melican out of the 28.

Summary and what should we do?

The Swans list is not as inexperienced as many people think. The average age is dragged down by 11 teenagers and will be dragged down further by the national and rookie drafts, but that is a red herring. There is a solid experienced core of 19 players with 50+ games experience, and they could be joined by experienced recruits as well as McCartin, and maybe even Ronke or Melican next year.

The Swans have not allocated enough attention and resources into building elite midfielders, this is an area of substantial weakness and needs to be addressed. There are some assets that we have paid midfield prices for, that are not yet delivering enough there. These include Callum Mills, Matthew Ling, Zak Jones, and Will Hayward.

In the 2019 offseason the Swans should cut aggressively from the 19(!!!!!!!!) 18-21 years olds on the list, and delist those that will not become above average AFL players. I can think of at least 9. They should then recycle with a large intake of draftees, rinse and repeat.

The Swans' 2019 first round pick, currently #4, is one of their top currency assets and must be either traded for a quality player in Tier 1 (KPF) or 2 (elite midfield), or used to draft a player in one of those categories. It should not under any circumstances be used on another Tier 4-5 asset like a halfback flanker. Later picks or other assets can be used to target ruckmen, key defenders, and small forwards which are areas we could improve (particularly if Papley departs).

Cheers mate.

 

[RobbieK]

Summary and what should we do?

The Swans list is not as inexperienced as many people think. The average age is dragged down by 11 teenagers and will be dragged down further by the national and rookie drafts, but that is a red herring. There is a solid experienced core of 19 players with 50+ games experience, and they could be joined by experienced recruits as well as McCartin, and maybe even Ronke or Melican next year.

The Swans have not allocated enough attention and resources into building elite midfielders, this is an area of substantial weakness and needs to be addressed. There are some assets that we have paid midfield prices for, that are not yet delivering enough there. These include Callum Mills, Matthew Ling, Zak Jones, and Will Hayward.

In the 2019 offseason the Swans should cut aggressively from the 19(!!!!!!!!) 18-21 years olds on the list, and delist those that will not become above average AFL players. I can think of at least 9. They should then recycle with a large intake of draftees, rinse and repeat.

The Swans' 2019 first round pick, currently #4, is one of their top currency assets and must be either traded for a quality player in Tier 1 (KPF) or 2 (elite midfield), or used to draft a player in one of those categories. It should not under any circumstances be used on another Tier 4-5 asset like a halfback flanker. Later picks or other assets can be used to target ruckmen, key defenders, and small forwards which are areas we could improve (particularly if Papley departs).

Pretty much agree with this summation. We have a young team, but we have done a really good job of getting games in to those young players. Priority needs to be giving that developing group some more top level, experienced midfield support, so I definitely think trading our first draft pick for a worthy midfielder is the way to go with that. We can also afford to be ruthless with the younger players we don't see as making it because our list demographics is already too skewed to the young guys.

The remaining off contract players are:

Senior List:
Cameron, Fox, Jones, Maibaum, Menzel, Rose

Rookie List:
Amartey (Cat A 2nd year), Bell (Cat B 2nd year), Hirst (Cat A injury replacement), Knoll (Cat A injury replacement), McLean (Cat A injury replacement), Pink (Cat A 3rd year), Tucker (Cat A 1st year), Wicks (Cat B 1st year)

How many of these players are currently or could be reasonably projected to eventually be part of our best 28?

Honestly, not a lot of them.

Of those on the senior list, the only definite is Jones. I'd like him to stay. If is he to go then we need to work out a trade for a midfielder who will be a definite best 28 player. Menzel is the only other one to have a claim. An injury interrupted year from him, question marks about his longevity and his versatility, but no one doubts his skill and he is not on very much money at all. Line ball call. Fox will be 27 when next season comes around. He can plug gaps in a pinch, is versatile and you can't doubt his effort, but I think at that age you need to be doing more than that to get a contract. I'm feeling ruthless right now so I'm going to say he goes. Rose should be delisted. Cameron and Maibaum were both in line to play plenty this year after injuries knocked off their competition... only for them to be injured themselves. I was bullish about Maibaum going in to the year and wouldn't mind him getting one more year. I think Cameron goes.

From this group there are a lot of line ball calls that really depend on what happens with our trade period. It wouldn't be a surprise for any of them individually not to be on the list next year. It would be a surprise if more than half of them were.

I don't think there are a lot of obvious calls on the Rookie List either. Bell looks to be getting a promotion to the Senior List. Pink and Amartey have both been in the system for a few years now, have been doing well at NEAFL but haven't looked close to AFL despite that. You'd think that means both are gone. The rest are all first year players. You would think Tucker gets another year after struggling with injury, Wicks and McLean get another year too. Knoll is a longer term project, you'd think he gets another year. I'm feeling less ruthless now with all these first year rookies, apparently. Though I don't think Hirst has done enough.

 

[BloodySwan]

Funny that we neglect the midfield and get rid of Mitchell

Sneaky guess is that they Parker is,was better and that Heeney and mills would take control

How things change

That's exactly it, the best midfielders of their drafts (Heeney & Mills) were meant to take control and Horse hasn't even been playing them there. Heeney does look like he's going to be a forward/midfield type player but Mills should have been developed into an inside mid. I feel now he's going to never be anything but a small defender

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Terrific analysis from SF51. It is a no brainer the midfield requires the most attention.

Who knows whether Jones wants out? He should be a mid but is a barely capable one. Even if he wanted to stay I'd be asking him to look around.

Agree Cameron and Rose should go (suspect both will find other clubs).

We lack players in the mid age range. IMO Fox is worth retaining. In a side with many slow players it is good to have one with athletic utility.

Menzel is in a good bracket, experience and age wise. However we are not short of kpf's or medium fwds. Dan is the least adaptable player on the List. He goes.

As well as main listed players without contracts, I would test the waters on several contracted players. These include Sinclair, Melican, Naismith, Hewett, Ronke, Hayward, Ling, Clark, Thurlow, Stoddard. If we got good trade offers for one or two of these I hope they are taken up.

Who knows the truth about Papley? If he goes or Ronke was traded then Wicks should be upgraded.

Of the other Rookie listed players, I reckon McLean and Bell will be on the main list.

None of the rest show clear potential to make the 28. Hirst had one good game but will not make it. Pink might stay if could jettison Melican, otherwise he goes. Knoll looks a bust.

Of the Rookies, none are walk up starts for extension or an upgrade.

 

[RW]

Perhaps the reason we have so many 18-21 year olds on our list at the moment is because they are fairly cheap?

We did have to cut our player payments when the COLA was phased out, in addition to having to manage our cap with several players on long-term contracts. This has probably led to us having more players in low valuation positions. Another factor is that players in higher valuation positions (i.e., elite midfielders) are also more likely to ask for more money.

But yes, I would agree that our list is not as inexperienced as it seems, and that we should have 28 players for next year.

 

[Punts]

Wonder how much there paying Heeney and mills

Overs to keep them apparently and thought they would be A grade mids by now I bet

 

[caesar88]

Terrific analysis from SF51. It is a no brainer the midfield requires the most attention.

Who knows whether Jones wants out? He should be a mid but is a barely capable one. Even if he wanted to stay I'd be asking him to look around.

Agree Cameron and Rose should go (suspect both will find other clubs).

We lack players in the mid age range. IMO Fox is worth retaining. In a side with many slow players it is good to have one with athletic utility.

Menzel is in a good bracket, experience and age wise. However we are not short of kpf's or medium fwds. Dan is the least adaptable player on the List. He goes.

As well as main listed players without contracts, I would test the waters on several contracted players. These include Sinclair, Melican, Naismith, Hewett, Ronke, Hayward, Ling, Clark, Thurlow, Stoddard. If we got good trade offers for one or two of these I hope they are taken up.

Who knows the truth about Papley? If he goes or Ronke was traded then Wicks should be upgraded.

Of the other Rookie listed players, I reckon McLean and Bell will be on the main list.

None of the rest show clear potential to make the 28. Hirst had one good game but will not make it. Pink might stay if could jettison Melican, otherwise he goes. Knoll looks a bust.

Of the Rookies, none are walk up starts for extension or an upgrade.

I would be staggered if we got rid of Hirst. We willingly took him on knowing he was the size of a toothpick. Not sure what more they could’ve been expecting from him in the NEAFL that wouldn’t warrant another year. That we took him tells me the club sees him as a project player.