Mathematical formula for player value movements

[DG33]

Dont suppose anyone has done some work on working out the maths behind the value movements? By the time I wanted to do it last year it was too late. I figure the first thing you need to do is work out their scale ie what average score gives you what value. I guess you can work that out once we have the first value changes. Players that value hardly changes mean that their average score and value are in line.

The tricky bit is working out how they do the movements. Obviously they dont just stick each player straight to a new level according to their average. Rather, it appears that they have some gradual increase/decrease system. It may be a percentage increase.

Anyway, anyone that has got any info on this from previous years please post it. Is there a chance I am taking this game too seriously?

 

[JuddyisGod]

you can never take it too seriously.

 

[pie35]

Don't waste your time worrying about it. It's a very complex formula based on rolling averages. Knowing the formula wouldn't really give you that much of an edge. All you need to know is that if a player's form is up his price goes up and vice versa.

 

[Unwritten_Law]

Something I noticed from the soccer dream team, the scoring system is really flawed so it may not apply to this, is that once the values head one way they will continue going up/down for a week or two even if they have a bad/good couple of weeks.

 

[catempire]

I’ve got an idea as to how it might work.

It has got to do with finding out how they work out the starting salaries of the players (they use some sort of multiplier), then working out what their salary would be according to the past 3 rounds (average score times multiplier) then some sort of average between the new and old figure.

I’ve got a spreadsheet going with some hypotheticals, but I’ll keep it to myself for now

 

[Jeffrey]

Could someone please tell me how much they go up and down. Are we talking 10s of thousands or hundreds of thousands?

Thanks

 

[D0nk]

Something I noticed from the soccer dream team, the scoring system is really flawed so it may not apply to this, is that once the values head one way they will continue going up/down for a week or two even if they have a bad/good couple of weeks.

Well, going on the three weeks average, if a player has two huge weeks of 100 plus and is priced very low, then has a below 50 score, they will still increase in value most likely, depending how low their current value is, they may even increase the week after, even if they do have another poor score.

 

[D0nk]

Could someone please tell me how much they go up and down. Are we talking 10s of thousands or hundreds of thousands?

Thanks

Last year I think the biggest increase was about 60,000 in one round... This year with the player values being a bit more the increase may be higher, but I don't think it would go above 70k.

 

[DG33]

Don't waste your time worrying about it. It's a very complex formula based on rolling averages. Knowing the formula wouldn't really give you that much of an edge. All you need to know is that if a player's form is up his price goes up and vice versa.

It surely isnt that complex. Once you get an idea of their scale, then you just have to work out the formula for the gradual increases/decreases.

And I disagree that it wont give me an edge. If you are investing in a player purely to make some money and offload then when their value rises, then surely you want to know if its better for someone like Gram ($148,800) to be averaging averaging 110 or for someone like Marc Murphy ($66,500) to be averaging 70. If you want to make the most money you need to know a rough scale.

Anyway, I have enough of an idea to be able to estimate value changes. Just was interested if anyone had the exact formula.

 

[footylover18]

It surely isnt that complex. Once you get an idea of their scale, then you just have to work out the formula for the gradual increases/decreases.

And I disagree that it wont give me an edge. If you are investing in a player purely to make some money and offload then when their value rises, then surely you want to know if its better for someone like Gram ($148,800) to be averaging averaging 110 or for someone like Marc Murphy ($66,500) to be averaging 70. If you want to make the most money you need to know a rough scale.

Anyway, I have enough of an idea to be able to estimate value changes. Just was interested if anyone had the exact formula.

care to share it with us?

 

[Lonie_from_50]

Luke Hodge will be on a downslide, averaging 100 or 120, i would be pretty certain he will come down. Spider Everitt will have a slow start, he may jump down to under $300K, you never know, lol

He will have a ******** week this week Spida. Last time Fraser played against him it was when Spida dominated the season. Fraser was the only man to beat Everitt that year in 21 weeks!!!

 

[footylover18]

Why will Hodge be on a downslide? His current price is based on last year where he averaged around 100. If he maintains that average this season why would his price drop? He didn't have a monster game on the weekend and still got over a 100.

 

[catempire]

Why will Hodge be on a downslide? His current price is based on last year where he averaged around 100. If he maintains that average this season why would his price drop? He didn't have a monster game on the weekend and still got over a 100.

Exactly. If a player averages what they averaged last season their value should not change.

 

[Jeffrey]

Why will Hodge be on a downslide? His current price is based on last year where he averaged around 100. If he maintains that average this season why would his price drop? He didn't have a monster game on the weekend and still got over a 100.

He aved 130 last year.

 

[D0nk]

He aved 130 last year.

Not even close to that, avg was pretty much around the 100 points from what I remember.

 

[Jeffrey]

Not even close to that, avg was pretty much around the 100 points from what I remember.

Hodge averaged 135.38 to be exact. You might be be confusing him with Jess Sinclair who averaged 100.

 

[DG33]

Not even close to that, avg was pretty much around the 100 points from what I remember.

Hodge averaged 100.62 and finished on a value of $342,200 last season. Whether he will go down or not depends on their new scale. Last year the cheepest players were $25,800 and this year they are $66,500 so you cant gauge too much from last seasons averages and prices. I would imagine as long as Hodge got around 100-110 his price wont drop or rise much.

 

[catempire]

Hodge averaged 135.38 to be exact. You might be be confusing him with Jess Sinclair who averaged 100.

Where do you get those numbers from? As far as I can tell he averaged 100.3.

 

[sainter]

Hodge averaged 100.62 and finished on a value of $342,200 last season.

They are the figures I have as well.

And if he can score a 50 or 60 in the next couple of weeks that would be great.

 

[pie35]

Hodge averaged 135.38 to be exact. You might be be confusing him with Jess Sinclair who averaged 100.

This is his Supercoach average for 2005 (21 games for 2843 points).
His Dreamteam average was 100.62 (21 games for 2113 points).

Jess Sinclair's champion data average was 101.25 (20 games for 2025 points which includes 1 finals game).
His dreamteam average was 84.16 (19 games for 1599 points).

 

[pie35]

It surely isnt that complex. Once you get an idea of their scale, then you just have to work out the formula for the gradual increases/decreases.

And I disagree that it wont give me an edge. If you are investing in a player purely to make some money and offload then when their value rises, then surely you want to know if its better for someone like Gram ($148,800) to be averaging averaging 110 or for someone like Marc Murphy ($66,500) to be averaging 70. If you want to make the most money you need to know a rough scale.

Anyway, I have enough of an idea to be able to estimate value changes. Just was interested if anyone had the exact formula.

"Complex formula" are their words not mine. This is what they stated they used in previous years. I don't know if the formula is static from one year to the next. I've tried to figure out the formula without success although I can usually tell which players will increase and which ones will decrease. I just can't work out by exactly how much the changes will be and sometimes the shift in the trend takes a week longer than expected to be reflected in the player's price.

I'm not disputing that knowing the formula will give an edge. What I meant was it would not be too significant because most people will realise that if a players last few games have been higher or lower than his average, his price would adjust accordingly. Also I think that the amount of points being scored by all of the other players on a week to week basis has an effect on individual players prices. For example if Hodge came off a 100 point ave in 2005 and scored exactly 100 points every week, his value will still manage to very slightly from one week to the next.

 

[mulhollanddrive]

Its pretty simple all you need is 5 numbers (average score last year, last 3 rounds scores, and multiple salary factor). What to do with these has been mentioned a few times in the main DT thread, and can be easily set up with a spreadsheet.

If my formula is used as a guide, for SC, out of all the players to play 2 games, Johnson of Freo will gain the most if his average continues for 3 games. Watson, Bowden, Skipper, Gram, Gibson are in for big increases too if they play another good game.

 

[rgauci]

If your captain is omitted. Does his replacement get double points? I think not. But i'm hoping so.

 

[rgauci]

EDIT: wrong place

 

[Cassius_Clay]

How can Hodge go down if he averages 100 for the first 3 games?

He averaged 100 last year so he wont change if he does average 100.