Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)

[Boomtime]

It does make you wonder about "the pentagon" another obrien horse currently on his way over in the final shipment. You look at its form in the uk and scratch your head why obrien would even be bothering to send it..
Perhaps Lexus then into the mcup for him?

 

[Boomtime]

Dont mind Rostropovich. Like him more as a Cox Plate place chance though at big odds

I don't think obrien would send this out with cox plate in mind, he wouldn't waiste his time..
my guess is it still has entry to get a nice track gallop before the mcup and a chance of running in the placings earning some money on the way

 

[Jugada]

I don't think obrien would send this out with cox plate in mind, he wouldn't waiste his time..
my guess is it still has entry to get a nice track gallop before the mcup and a chance of running in the placings earning some money on the way

Waste his time? Its a $5 million race... running in the placings of the Cox Plate would be a successful trip

 

[Jugada]

It does make you wonder about "the pentagon" another obrien horse currently on his way over in the final shipment. You look at its form in the uk and scratch your head why obrien would even be bothering to send it..
Perhaps Lexus then into the mcup for him?

Ran on well in the Derby and wasn't terrible in the worst part of the track against Cross Counter, Old Persian and Kew Gardens. Went absolutely dreadful in the St Leger though. I think Lexus > Cup is the only real option

 

[Boomtime]

Waste his time? Its a $5 million race... running in the placings of the Cox Plate would be a successful trip

Obviously running placings in the cox is huge money, but I don't think Ros has been bought out to run placings in a cox. He has been bought out for melb cup and only carrying 51kg is a live chance. Plus he can run it in the cox knowing it won't win and not get a weight penalty

 

[Mobythepom]

Call me crazy but I just don't rate Yucatan's win that highly, it beat up on a bunch of 2nd rate stayers

Caulfield Cup for me Youngster, KWD, COM all better formlines competing well in class fields

Yucatan huge unders in MC market

The Racing Post ratings had Yucatan running between 108 and 111 in each of its last 8 races. They rate this performance as 113. This allows for their guess at its superiority if pushed out. So a 2lb improvement. However from my melbourne cup research it's typical for uk/irish horses to underperform by an average of 5lb on their 'home' Racing Post Ratings when racing in Australia. So in effect that was a PB by 7lbs off the back of a plateau in performance. Seems a bit unusual.
I'll try not to go on to touchy ground here but it's hard to see anything unusual in the race that made it such a freakily easy win. The race time stacks up well with the other races on the card and given the other prominent runners dropped away I'm not convinced there was a pace bias.
Perhaps the horse has simply improved for the change of regime and surroundings....it happens.
The big concern going into the CC must be the penalty. My money is on 2.5kg. That would eat up most of the perceived improvement. Must be a leading fancy all the same but wouldn't see it justifying a complete price smash up.
Looking ahead to the MC the obvious issue is the extra 4 furlongs.

 

[Jugada]

Few quick thoughts on the Ebor winner next and some replays...

Muntahaa - 55.5kg


Recent Races:

Ormonde Stakes

Going back 4 runs to this race in May this year and he met a couple of other Melbourne Cup horses in Idaho and Duretto. He led them up and was pushed along from a fair way out before being beaten about 5 lengths.

Idaho won comfortably (but his form had dropped away awfully since) and he crossed the line with Duretto


Wolferton Stakes


Next up he ran 3rd at 34-1 in the G2 at Royal Ascot. Got a nice run midfield and was strong to the line between horses - which we are told he doesn't like. I dont really rate this as a strong form race personally but it was a nice enough run and he showed some turn of foot for a 2000m race.

Yucatan ran last in the race at 10-1 for anyone looking to draw a line with other Cup hopes.


Princess of Wales
https://www.racinguk.com/news/best-solution-proves-the-answer-to-princess-of-wales-s-stakes

Step up to a mile and a half and met both Best Solution and Duretto on even weights but was comfortably beaten by both of them. He will meet Best Solution 2kg better off in the Cup but he will meet Duretto 1kg worse off.

Mirage Dancer was also able to comfortably turn the tables on him after finishing down the track as favourite in the Wolferton previously.


Ebor Handicap


Bolted in the race here in what was clearly his best performance to date and rated well above anything he had done for 18 months. It was visually very impressive and using that run alone has to be a decent chance but personally i really question the form out of the race.

Weekender is a good measuring stick though. He finished 2nd beaten 3 lengths giving Muntahaa 1.5kg and has been running in the placings behind Magic Circle, Marmelo and Latrobe.


Thoughts:

He is probably one of the last few cut for me. Not without a chance but unders in the market and his Ebor win rated so far above anything else he has done that i just can't put that much weight into it with any confidence.

I line him up against a horse like Duretto who he has met three times and crossed the line with twice - then last time they met was beaten 4L by him. That's a horse who he has to give 1kg to and will likely start shorter in the market.

 

[Mobythepom]

Think you've just about nailed Muntahaa there. Your key point is whether you can take that Ebor form on trust. If you do then he has to have a great chance.
I'm more inclined to take it at face value than you on the grounds that his master trainer thought that the horse had never been better than on Ebor day, in which case a peak performance was no big shock, and also that I believe the key to this horse is a fast run race.
The two times it has run in fields of 16 or more runners have been the Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot when a strong finishing 4th neaten 2 lengths over a trip too short, and the Ebor when bolting up in a field of 20. Those two races were also the two races rated highest from a speed rating point of view by those guys. It seems probable to me that a fast run race over 1m 6f+ is what this horse needs and he seems to be peaking at the right time. The horse has a tendency to pull in the type of tactical small field group races it has spent a lot of time competing in and it's never been able to go with the classier group horses at the end.
The dilemma is the reported dislike of being bunched....obviously a concern but perhaps the horse is maturing and the jury's out on that for me.
Whether the occasion will get to it is another concern.

All things considered, when you look at the top of the market horses and likely make up of the field as it stands, I'm more than happy to take a punt at the current prices and think there's plenty of room for contraction in price yet to around the 16/1 mark as mentioned previously.
It's one of those horses that you can say will have a real shout IF it's on a going day, whereas there's plenty of opponents who I just can't see in the shake up.....going day or not.

 

[Mobythepom]

Cross Counter has suffered a minor setback in his preparation for the G1 Melbourne Cup when sustaining a cut to his leg, which has required veterinary attention.

Trainer Charlie Appleby expected the treatment to the cut to cost the gelding’s two days of routine work in his build-up to the big race.

“It is annoying, but the Cup is over three weeks away and there is time for him to be ready, provided his recovery is as we expect,” Appleby said. “He will be box-rested for two days, the vets will have another look, and then we will assess everything after that,” the trainer added.

Cross Counter has been working well at Werribee since arriving at the quarantine centre, situated on the outskirts of Melbourne.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Cross Counter has suffered a minor setback in his preparation for the G1 Melbourne Cup when sustaining a cut to his leg, which has required veterinary attention.

Trainer Charlie Appleby expected the treatment to the cut to cost the gelding’s two days of routine work in his build-up to the big race.

“It is annoying, but the Cup is over three weeks away and there is time for him to be ready, provided his recovery is as we expect,” Appleby said. “He will be box-rested for two days, the vets will have another look, and then we will assess everything after that,” the trainer added.

Cross Counter has been working well at Werribee since arriving at the quarantine centre, situated on the outskirts of Melbourne.

Wonder how bad it really is... already lost Hamada.
Can't afford any setbacks, slight doubts will creep in if it doesn't heal ASAP

 

[FFB1]

Cliffs Of Moher defeating Yucatán.

 

[FFB1]

Wonder how bad it really is... already lost Hamada.
Can't afford any setbacks, slight doubts will creep in if it doesn't heal ASAP

Hearing ya, in the same boat. Don’t want it any more than 2 days.

 

[FFB1]

Yucatan 2.5kg, puts him 24th by my calcs. Wonder if still runs CC?

 

[IKnowtheDog]

Yucatan 2.5kg, puts him 24th by my calcs. Wonder if still runs CC?

Would think so for two reasons

1) Latrobe is their Melb Cup horse and
2) If he wins the Caulfield Cup we can have the annual 'Çaulfield Cup should be penalty free' discussion.

 

[FFB1]

Would think so for two reasons

1) Latrobe is their Melb Cup horse and
2) If he wins the Caulfield Cup we can have the annual 'Çaulfield Cup should be penalty free' discussion.

They’ve come for stablemate Rostropovich this arvo.

Yucatán outta CC, comes as no surprise really. Good news for those who got good MC odds.

 

[Jugada]

What are people's thoughts on Idaho?

On the positive side:

He is a high class galloper
Had panels on both Muntahaa and Duretto winning at the start of this prep
Put in decent performances in the Arc, Japan Cup and King George last year
He is well travelled with trips to America, Canada, France, Japan and Dubai

On the negative side:

Going pretty s**t lately

 

[Boomtime]

After watching what yucatan did you just can't dismiss any obrien galloper, idahos form is very up and down but we know he can travel and compete with the worlds best on his day..
$80s on bf, you could do allot worse

 

[rideclutch]

What are people's thoughts on Idaho?

On the positive side:

He is a high class galloper
Had panels on both Muntahaa and Duretto winning at the start of this prep
Put in decent performances in the Arc, Japan Cup and King George last year
He is well travelled with trips to America, Canada, France, Japan and Dubai

On the negative side:

Going pretty s**t lately

Just have too many ahead before needing to look at horses like him. I'll risk.

On the flipside we can claim he's Ausbred winner

 

[plays tall 1]

Idaho’s form’s hard to reconcile. But maybe he runs best fresh? All of his wins have come first or second up. He’ll be going into the Cup with a break of nearly 2 months (assuming they don’t run him beforehand).

 

[FFB1]

Another one down, Count Octave out. This rate I won’t have a runner going around.

 

[Jugada]

Lloyd still selecting Latrobe as his best Melbourne Cup chance is encouraging

 

[FFB1]

Lloyd still selecting Latrobe as his best Melbourne Cup chance is encouraging

Meanwhile the trainer says might struggle to run two mile.

Anyway it’s Lloyd, he’ll pick something different as his best chance later this arvo.

 

[Boomtime]

The more I look at this race the more I think the winner is coming from Latrobe, cross counter and Rostropovich.
Carrying 52,51 and 51kgs the weight swing they have on the field over 3200 will be the difference. Obviously if they all draw the car park there could be some issues.
Those 3 really have got in so under weight, horse like red verdon and finche getting in with 54 are nice. But I rate the other 3 better then them and they still get 3-4kgs of.. I see no way that the likes of cliffs of moher can give them 4.5-5.5kgs over 3200..

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

 

[Viva la Mattner]

View attachment 576027

Seriously doubt whether it runs now