Mega Thread Nick Daicos - Can he be the GTWEB? Part 2

[doppleganger]

Is Player Ratings the Hoyne Champion Data stuff? If so most of the SEN guys seem to love it. I can't work out whether Hoyne is just a good salesman or whether there's a commercial relationship where SEN benefits from plugging Champion Data's data. I think it's now impacting the All Australian team.

AFL own Champion Data (CD)

CD collect all basic descriptive stats live during game, and do a more comprehensive post game call where they add more detailed stats.

AFL Player Ratings are one attempt by CD to try translate the basic descriptive stats into a rating based on a ground equity rating. Equity rating is the score likelihood based on location and type of possession, and they calculate the change between starting equity and final of the action.

Hoyne is a CD employee, he spruiks a large number of different stats and measures to SEN (and other media stakeholders) of which player ratings are one.

The Player Ratings (and other CD captured and derived stats) are published on AFL app, but it is an unfriendly interface. AFL player ratings are found in the general play sub category.

Sites like wheeloratings exist to help better translate the CD stats, and they do some season simulations, and predictions based on the data...but they just source CD data

 

[Lunchtime]

Champion Data collect all the official stats for the AFL. On top of this, Champion Data also sell their analysis of the stats - in terms of both team and individual players. Hoyne works for Champion Data and is reeling off their analysis of the stats. SEN love Hoyney and their analysis.

It sounds like this Player Ratings stuff is a different mob's analysis of the official stats. I think that must be the stuff published on Wheelio.

I thought Hoyne did the ratings (player ratings) and thats where Wheelo get their ratings from.

 

[Lunchtime]

AFL own Champion Data (CD)

CD collect all basic descriptive stats live during game, and do a more comprehensive post game call where they add more detailed stats.

AFL Player Ratings are one attempt by CD to try translate the basic descriptive stats into a rating based on a ground equity rating. Equity rating is the score likelihood based on location and type of possession, and they calculate the change between starting equity and final of the action.

Hoyne is a CD employee, he spruiks a large number of different stats and measures to SEN (and other media stakeholders) of which player ratings are one.

The Player Ratings (and other CD captured and derived stats) are published on AFL app, but it is an unfriendly interface. AFL player ratings are found in the general play sub category.

Sites like wheeloratings exist to help better translate the CD stats, and they do some season simulations, and predictions based on the data...but they just source CD data

Ah so Wheelo ratings is the ratings from Champion Data which is done by Hoyne?

 

[doppleganger]

Ah so Wheelo ratings is the ratings from Champion Data which is done by Hoyne?

Wheelo just publish what official AFL CD individual and team stats they can source.

AFL Player Ratings have been developed by CD, being developed by CD means they get to run with the official AFL tag.

Hoyne is just the current CD media mouthpiece, would have been numerous different people involved in the creation of them over many years.

 

[sr36]

Ah so Wheelo ratings is the ratings from Champion Data which is done by Hoyne?

Don't know. Hoyne is champion data and plugging their analysis and evaluations of the stats.

Mr Meow said that the Wheelio Player Ratings was different but a similar thing - so I was guessing they're a different mob. But DG says they're the same thing.

 

[sr36]

Wheelo just publish what official AFL CD individual and team stats they can source.

AFL Player Ratings have been developed by CD, being developed by CD means they get to run with the official AFL tag.

Hoyne is just the current CD media mouthpiece, would have been numerous different people involved in the creation of them over many years.

Yeah Hoyne is just a salesman selling their model for valuing the statistical data. I think it's pretty good on a team level, but doesn't work at all when comparing different players across teams and their system seems to be biased towards the outside uncontested ball users - contrary to what list managers, coaches, pundits and fans think - otherwise Nick and Nas would still be back flankers rather than having moved into their club's midfield and Bailey Dale would be paid more than Butters.

 

[doppleganger]

Don't know. Hoyne is champion data and plugging their analysis and evaluations of the stats.

Mr Meow said that the Wheelio Player Ratings was different but a similar thing - so I was guessing they're a different mob. But DG says they're the same thing.

You can find the AFL PlaYA RatInGz on the AFL app.

Rd 20 when Nick went bang with his 37 against Richmond.


And PF week, again with Nick at the top.

Just presented in a horrible way, wheelo just takes the match stats and creates some great player tables that are easy to digest...so a great source.

 

[sr36]

You can find the AFL PlaYA RatInGz on the AFL app.

Rd 20 when Nick went bang with his 37 against Richmond.
View attachment 2433280

And PF week, again with Nick at the top.View attachment 2433284

Just presented in a horrible way, wheelo just takes the match stats and creates some great player tables that are easy to digest...so a great source.

That's a way over-rating of his game. Obviously doesn't factor in the missed tackles, but he did open them up a fair few times, which I assume the high score was from. I hate to say it but I think it's going to be another shit GF with Cats absolutely torching then. We had a shocker. The whole game went to plan for Brissy, yet all their goals were sloppy shit from us, coughing up a heap of stoppage goals and pack marks to mediums - they'll get **** all of them against the Cats. And we actually cut through them pretty easily in transition but kept ****ing up due to an open forward line with Cox against Andrews and a +1 ahead of them as the option.

 

[Chronz]

For example … Heeney is a superior player to Naicos. Why? Because I watched him drag his team over the line via a couple of finals for the ages in 2024. He has games where he has 25 and kicks 5. He can win aerial contests and is a beast at contest. Now he won’t win the H&A awards Naicos will as he’s not the ‘handball receive’ player and high possession midfielder these awards focus on … he could be but Heeney can win contests forward of the ball so he’s regularly stationed in that role. Not good for awards, but great for winning highly contested finals.

So as a H&A player Daicos is up there with Dawson, B Smith, Bont, Jezza, Anderson, Butters … the list goes on.

But in a big final I’m probably not choosing Daicos in my first 20 players. I’m picking Danger in a final before Naicos for example - it’s not even close. I’m picking McLuggage. I’m picking Heeney. Bont. And so on ….

He’s small and not very tough in the contest. He’s not good at sticking tackles. He rarely hits the scoreboard in finals.

If a player isn’t in the top echelon in the most important games, he’s not one of the very best.

He’s got time and maybe he’ll elevate in finals? Time will tell.

But he’ll end with loads of home and away awards …. but probably not many Ayres awards, Norm Smths or finals master classes. It’s still pretty good and he’ll be an all time great.

But you're an absolute nuffie. A regular einstein on the tigers board no doubt. Got any of that iq juice m8? I'd be picking Bont, Daicos, Dunkley, Holmes and Rowell. Would absolutely destroy whatever garbage team you'd come up with.

 

[doppleganger]

I think it's pretty good on a team level, but doesn't work at all when comparing different players across teams and their system seems to be biased towards the outside uncontested ball users

I don't mind the logic, using ground location and likelihood of next score as a key inputs...make all the chip kicks across D50 as basically worthless, and you reward that really difficult pass inside 50 that sets up the goal.

You are correct though in that it then favours players from high scoring aggressive teams (like the Dogs) who play a game style that is about scoring and players who are given license to play as the aggressive forward running mids.

But at the end of the day it is just a different Supercoach style score, and CD don't know pre-game instructions or roles given to players.

 

[doppleganger]

That's a way over-rating of his game. Obviously doesn't factor in the missed tackles, but he did open them up a fair few times, which I assume the high score was from.

Tackles themselves are tricky, and clubs would historically track their own customised defensive stat re tackles.

From the ground equity perspective even harder to assess, as the start equity and final equity were progressed by Lions player with Daicos perhaps getting hardly any penalty...apart from not getting the positive rating that a hold in the ball would have generated.

And yes, he had some brilliant play that our players couldn't capitalise on...the opening clearance, run and carry and 50m pass to Cox would be very well rewarded from ground equity perspective, but Cox gets negative for dropping an uncontested chest mark and wasting Nicks great work.

 

[Corn Cobbers]

But you're an absolute nuffie. A regular einstein on the tigers board no doubt. Got any of that iq juice m8? I'd be picking Bont, Daicos, Dunkley, Holmes and Rowell. Would absolutely destroy whatever garbage team you'd come up with.

Still an upgrade from comparing Daics to Gus Logie, he'll get there eventually

 

[sr36]

For example … Heeney is a superior player to Naicos. Why? Because I watched him drag his team over the line via a couple of finals for the ages in 2024. He has games where he has 25 and kicks 5. He can win aerial contests and is a beast at contest. Now he won’t win the H&A awards Naicos will as he’s not the ‘handball receive’ player and high possession midfielder these awards focus on … he could be but Heeney can win contests forward of the ball so he’s regularly stationed in that role. Not good for awards, but great for winning highly contested finals.

So as a H&A player Daicos is up there with Dawson, B Smith, Bont, Jezza, Anderson, Butters … the list goes on.

But in a big final I’m probably not choosing Daicos in my first 20 players. I’m picking Danger in a final before Naicos for example - it’s not even close. I’m picking McLuggage. I’m picking Heeney. Bont. And so on ….

He’s small and not very tough in the contest. He’s not good at sticking tackles. He rarely hits the scoreboard in finals.

If a player isn’t in the top echelon in the most important games, he’s not one of the very best.

He’s got time and maybe he’ll elevate in finals? Time will tell.

But he’ll end with loads of home and away awards …. but probably not many Ayres awards, Norm Smths or finals master classes. It’s still pretty good and he’ll be an all time great.

FMD. McCluggage? Imagine how much you'd carry on if Nick got blanketed by Mullin and was really ineffective in a final like McCluggage was against Geelong.

You might not realise it, but there's a reason why your expectations of Nick Daicos are so much higher than every other player in the comp..

 

[Fadge]

Does anyone other than David King take any notice of player ratings?

Many people on this forum do.

Well, when it suits THEIR narrative anyway...

 

[Fadge]

For Naicos they ALL suit the narrative

All Australian's - 3 already
MVP - a win and runner-up already
Coaches - a win and two other top5 finishes already
Brownlow - already two top 3 finishes (perhaps a win tomorrow)
Club BnF - dominant in years when the team are finishing top4 and winning flags
Pure stats - right up there for everything, disposals, clearances, score involvements etc.
Algorithms (rankings for season) - has gone 3 consecutive 15+ PlaYA RaTinGz and 115 SuperCoach season avg
Algorithms (individual games) - dropped a 37.2 the highest rated game ever by a Collingwood player, and the 14th best game in CD rating system of all time.
Finals - in our best in wins and losses, and produced best GF memory for many a Pie fan with the double act before DeGoey goal.

Not a bad CV after his first 4 years...

 

[Fadge]

Happy Nick Daicos Day, everyone!

 

[HairyO]

Many people on this forum do.

Well, when it suits THEIR narrative anyway...

Yep. As evidenced by this thread.

The idea that Daicos had the 2nd best game on the weekend is beyond insanity. It is just plain bullshit.

 

[Xtreme]

Happy Nick Daicos Day, everyone!

Happy Nick Daicos Gets Robbed of Another Brownlow Day (but please NOT Bailey Smith as a winner!!!)

 

[Angus Young]

Nick Daicos is a gun.

 

[ShereKhan]

Bit hard to get score involvements / goal assists when Cox is dropping chest marks from a lace out passes, and Sidey sprays a shot from 30m out under no pressure.

Agree.

Only the real champions can drop a game rated 26.3 in a big PF.

He has played 7 x finals. Yet to be voted by the coaches in the best 2 x players on the ground in any of those 7 x finals.

Not sure any other 'greats' of the game would have that sort of modest record in their first 7 x finals.

 

[ShereKhan]

For Naicos they ALL suit the narrative

All Australian's - 3 already
MVP - a win and runner-up already
Coaches - a win and two other top5 finishes already
Brownlow - already two top 3 finishes (perhaps a win tomorrow)
Club BnF - dominant in years when the team are finishing top4 and winning flags
Pure stats - right up there for everything, disposals, clearances, score involvements etc.
Algorithms (rankings for season) - has gone 3 consecutive 15+ PlaYA RaTinGz and 115 SuperCoach season avg
Algorithms (individual games) - dropped a 37.2 the highest rated game ever by a Collingwood player, and the 14th best game in CD rating system of all time.
Finals - in our best in wins and losses, and produced best GF memory for many a Pie fan with the double act before DeGoey goal.

He's a fantastic ball winner with great endurance and speed. In finals he doesn't have the size or contested nature to impact what are much more highly contested games. Blind freddy can see he gets found out in the absolute heat - it was on display in the PF...missed tackles and inability to get a kick in the crucial final quarter when his teammates weren't feeding him the ball and he couldn't win a kick himself. His small stature is not his fault.

He'll end with a H&A resume for the ages, no doubt about that.

 

[Madblue]

Amazing how the Pies fans on here bag the Brownlow every year and how meaningless it is and yet when a Pies player all of a sudden is in contention its the most important award ever.

 

[Xtreme]

Nick Daicos is a gun.

Cap gun - pops off and nothing happens!

 

[Frank Bunn]

Amazing how the Pies fans on here bag the Brownlow every year and how meaningless it is and yet when a Pies player all of a sudden is in contention its the most important award ever.

Daicos might award his own Brownlow votes like he awards his own free kicks.

 

[doppleganger]

He has played 7 x finals. Yet to be voted by the coaches in the best 2 x players on the ground in any of those 7 x finals.

Going the Mr. Disengenuos route I see.

3 of the 7 were in his debut season (even the disengenuos one will argue they shouldn't be included). How many players in their debut season are voted in best 2 players on the ground in a final?

And what is the big step between best 2 compared to best 3...or does it just happen that Daicos has multiple games where he was 3rd best according to coaches.

Great to see someone giving Mr Meow a challenge.