Club Focus North Melbourne 2021 - Greenwood, Coleman-Jones, Horne-Francis, Goater, Curtis, Bergman, Archer

[Elmer_Judd]

If North are confident/assured they can retain Horne-Francis after his initial two year contract is up, they would be silly to trade the no 1 pick.

He is too elite/good a talent to pass up.
But there is always a degree with uncertainty drafting an interstate kid with a high draft pick.

North's rebuild is projecting pretty well so far, although I hope they get a kinder run of injuries next year.

 

[master bate]

The last time there was such a public shot at trading for the number 1 pick was the saints when gws offered 4/7/21 I believe.
We said no took
McCartin looking real good now

Doesn't really matter either way but not sure they put 21 on the table as well, but the Giants were absolutely in the right to put 4 and 7 on the table for pick 1 and the Saints also made the right call to ignore it. Then made the wrong call talking themselves out of Petracca which is why the Giants were trading up.

Sydney tried 6 and 14 to get pick 3 out of Richmond for Dusty too.

If North think Horne-Francis is in that class of player they can't give him up.

But they should definitely still bid on Daicos and do without the hype of pick 1 as well.

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Every year the number 1 pick is the highest rated kid. Look back since the year 2000 it probably ends up that way maybe a handful of times. There's a couple of generational players, a bunch of good-very good guns, but a decent fist or more of disappointing players too for various reasons.

The number 1 pick isn't all it's cracked up to be.

 

[Shadow89]

I think the only way the Crows pull this off, is if they get nothing back in return at all. Be a huge price to pay, but if that was the price for Walsh right now, I'd pay it in a heartbeat.

So essentially, Picks 4, 6ish and 14-18 for Pick 1. If that doesn't get it done, nothing will

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Personally I think if Adelaide orchestrated a swap with GWS (say for 4 and Melbourne’s future first) the deal would have been much more attractive.

Callaghan and a likely top 1-5 future pick would be an incredible trade.

Bingo

 

[Bojan KantKick]

Not sure about that.
But also a little contradiction here in that JHF had the benefit showing what he can do all year. What if the Vic boys played all year and some jumped out of the pack in the last month or 2? Could easily be that we didn't see the 'best' player in the draft.

JHF has been the best player from his age group for the last 3-4 years.

 

[HFF]

i wish clubs would stop pretending like they genuinely consider trading pick 1...

 

[glenashley]

Hypothetically, who would the roos then go for with pick 4 (6)?

 

[TryAnHit]

Serious question:
Has north actually interviewed JHF yet? 2 weeks ago they had not even spoken to him yet. Not saying that means anything but seems strange to not have interviewed him yet 6 weeks out from draft.

 

[PieLebo87]

You do realise your post backs up my point? If the risk of gun or bust exists either way, then having 3 bets vs 1 is more favourable.

Give me pick 5 and 2 other first rounders over a pick 1 every day of the week and I’d take it.

Could just as easily having 3 absolute guns over 1. When I saw names like Boak, Pendles, Buddy and Hurley I was sold because you’re just as likely to nail pick 5 and then add some cream on top with the other 2 first rounders.

Even in a worse case scenario, you’ll nail 1/3 and still end up with a 12 year career of someone who’ll probably go close to being a club champion with a similar career to the pick 1.

 

[texanmike]

I don’t think anything gets this done, North want Horne and they will get him and take risk of go home factor, the kid looks to be the next star of the game....close thread.

 

[Psicosis]

Fair enough from North, too much risk to trade the number 1 pick and then spend ten years copping sh*t for it if the number 1 player turns out to be a gun.

Just take the opportunity to bring in the best kid in the draft.

This is my view.

That deal on the surface is a good deal for an undrafted kid, but I disagree that it’s an absolute monster deal due to the the second going back, the likely finishing positions of all clubs next year as well as the difference in exposed form between pick 1 & 4 (becomes 6) this year.

How often do you get to take the number 1 pick in a draft? This will be the first in my life time. Supporters are very excited about it & that’s only been increased with JHF’s finals performance. In a year that you’ve copped the wooden spoon, it really is something to be excited about. He is also exactly what Noble wants - leadership & competitor to go with extreme talent.

It hasn’t happened in 20 years, and it would take a very brave list manager for it to happen again IMO.

 

[Wild Bill]

If North are confident/assured they can retain Horne-Francis after his initial two year contract is up, they would be silly to trade the no 1 pick.

He is too elite/good a talent to pass up.
But there is always a degree with uncertainty drafting an interstate kid with a high draft pick.

North's rebuild is projecting pretty well so far, although I hope they get a kinder run of injuries next year.

Good post. Happy to roll the dice and back us to keep him.

 

[Wild Bill]

I don’t think anything gets this done, North want Horne and they will get him and take risk of go home factor, the kid looks to be the next star of the game....close thread.

Yeah it’s so even from 3-12 this year. Need to find him a nice Vic girl and get him settled!!!!

 

[master bate]

i wish clubs would stop pretending like they genuinely consider trading pick 1...

After the Hawthorn-Freo deal I'm not convinced a team ever will.

But mostly because rarely do teams trade players nearly as promising as McPharlin and Croad, yet alone both of them in the same deal.

If Freo were a serious footy club at that time they probably could've got more out of them than a lot of clubs would've Luke Hodge. Hawthorn putting together one heck of a club at exactly the right time that Hodge started to fulfill his talent to a huge level and then went on to captain flags and win Norm Smiths and so on made it the worst possible outcome. Even more so when Croad went back to the Hawks and made the Dockers look even more foolish.

If Hodge went to Freo and McPharlin and Croad stayed and Hawthorn and then Clarko and the Hawks did everything else the same then Hodge has a great career but without nearly as many accolades and the 2 talls might be thought of entirely differently.

Melbourne traded away a pick 2. GWS got close to getting the Saints pick 1. The Dogs and Giants obviously traded a very young Tom Boyd after 1 year. There were exceptional circumstances in all those deals. But I can see it happening.

In fact if Collingwood had their own pick 2 this year there's every chance they would've swapped it with North, with the Pies agreeing to not pick JHF and North not bidding on Daicos. Callaghan pick 1, JHF pick 2, Daicos pick 3 with Darcy somewhere between 1-4 very well could've happened.

 

[AusTerran]

Yeah it’s so even from 3-12 this year. Need to find him a nice Vic girl and get him settled!!!!

Already has a GF.

 

[buttox]

Horne has God Mode.
Adelaide could offer all there draft picks + Thilthorpe.
We would still say no.

 

[juss]

Give me pick 5 and 2 other first rounders over a pick 1 every day of the week and I’d take it.

Could just as easily having 3 absolute guns over 1. When I saw names like Boak, Pendles, Buddy and Hurley I was sold because you’re just as likely to nail pick 5 and then add some cream on top with the other 2 first rounders.

Even in a worse case scenario, you’ll nail 1/3 and still end up with a 12 year career of someone who’ll probably go close to being a club champion with a similar career to the pick 1.

100%
Look at historic pick 1s and its really a mixed bag. I'd be taking the deal.

 

[juss]

Horne has God Mode.
Adelaide could offer all there draft picks + Thilthorpe.
We would still say no.

There's a number of those who actually rate Daicos as number 1, so to several pundits JHF isn't even a consensus first pick.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Someday the Crows will be glad North shot them down, you can guarantee it

 

[Wild Bill]

Already has a GF.

We can find him a new one.

 

[Elmer_Judd]

There's a number of those who actually rate Daicos as number 1, so to several pundits JHF isn't even a consensus first pick.

What a load of ill informed nonsense

Horne-Francis is clearly the standout number 1 and the proof will be in the pudding next year.

Daicos will be a star no doubt, but I think he is not AFL level ready as JHF, and may play a significant part in the VFL next year.

I am no draft expert from all reports Horne-Francis is the most obvious/standout draftee for pick 1 since Sam Walsh.

North are goanna have a certified gun from day 1 on their hands.

 

[juss]

What a load of ill informed nonsense

Horne-Francis is clearly the standout number 1 and the proof will be in the pudding next year.

Daicos will be a star no doubt, but I think he is not AFL level ready as JHF, and may play a significant part in the VFL next year.

I am no draft expert from all reports Horne-Francis is the most obvious/standout draftee for pick 1 since Sam Walsh.

North are goanna have a certified gun from day 1 on their hands.

A quick google search will show that across various opinions the consensus is either Daicos or JHF. Not hard to find

 

[deanc]

i wish clubs would stop pretending like they genuinely consider trading pick 1...

Not sure they really do though. I think you'll find related discussions and rumours is predominately media speculation with their creative proposals and permutations which is nearly always total BS, rather than the involved club 'pretending anything'...

I mean the AFL media with their numerous related TV shows, media articles, online panels, podcasts, radio segments etc. - has mainly just become a competition as to who can sell the best nonsense prior to and during the trade period.

Of course people's level of interest differs during the trade and draft periods, but the media's primary objective is simply to produce anything they can to try and maintain an audience in the off-season...

 

[nineteen eighty]

This years draft imo is difficult because it's been another compromised years for the kids. There will be kids picked late 1st round and 2nd that will be late developers a day will come on with a couple of years in the system. Bowey is a classic. Thrived once he got into the system and trained and played games. There will be others coming along as well.

So do North take the risk that they can pick the eyes out of the draft this year and next or do they do the obvious? In a normal year, I would be tempted in multiple 1st round picks (with at least 2 top 10's...and one of them 4/5). This year there are a lot of unknowns. How confident are their talent spotters?

I also think if Adelaide really want pick 1, then they need to put an offer on the table that is almost too good to refuse. It's on them to convince North.