Analysis Optimism at the bye

[Janey]

The afl ladder predictor is unavailable but I found this - https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/ and did a prediction based on current events, form and positions and came up with this :

1
West Coast 20w, 2l, 131.6%
2
Richmond 17w, 5l, 124.5%
3
Port Adelaide 17w, 5l, 118.3%
4
Sydney 16w, 6l, 115.9%
5
Melbourne 15w, 7l, 118.3%
6
Adelaide 14w, 8l, 115.8%
7
North Melbourne 14w, 8l, 113.4%
8
GWS 13w, 8l, 1d, 106.6%

In comparing these with this - http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-03-17/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2018-predictions - no-one predicted North Melbourne in the eight, all had GWS in the eight and all except one had Geelong in the eight. As GWS are getting players back I am giving them a better chance of going on with it than Geelong.

The percentages should be taken with a grain of salt. The predictor asked for margins which could of course have varied wildly from what I put down. Maybe I was a bit hasty in some predictions and of course we don't know what will happen with form and injuries.

I tried to keep my own Port bias out but apart from tipping that we lose the second Showdown and another game(can't remember which one) I didn't do very well there.

Two more losses for the season, now that's what I call optimism

 

[PAFC66]

A Richmond Port QF would be epic at the G. We are one of the few sides they haven't beaten there in more than a decade i reckon

 

[Marmozet]

A Richmond Port QF would be epic at the G. We are one of the few sides they haven't beaten there in more than a decade i reckon

They haven't beaten us at the MCG since 1998

 

[PAFC66]

They haven't beaten us at the MCG since 1998

s**t i remember that game as well .. have a vivid memory of getting smashed there and seeing the players at Bells hotel post match. Its a joke we dont play them at the MCG more often.. no wonder interstate sides struggle there..

 

[Marmozet]

We've only met Richmond at the MCG 5 times for 2 wins apiece + 1 draw.

 

[Magus]

We've only met Richmond at the MCG 5 times for 2 wins apiece + 1 draw.

How is this possible? The draw is really weird. Why did we play them at Etihad when Aeroplane Chappy happened?

 

[RossFC]

They haven't beaten us at the MCG since 1998

We've played them 3 times at the MCG in the last 20 years.

Round 16 2007: Win
Round 23 2012: Draw
Round 6 2016: Win

 

[Andre]

How is this possible? The draw is really weird. Why did we play them at Etihad when Aeroplane Chappy happened?

All non-Victorian clubs get too many games at Etihad. It’s not a VFL first though If only a mad titan snapped his fingers 1st September and we were down to only 1 Melbourne stadium, in the MCG.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We've played them 3 times at the MCG in the last 20 years.

Round 16 2007: Win
Round 23 2012: Draw
Round 6 2016: Win

Bloody hell, take out the AO Elimination final and its
Adelaide.. Footy Park 15 AO 3 = 18
Melbourne MCG 5 Docklands 4 = 9
Darwin...... 1

* the schedulers over 21 previous seasons haven't done a great job balancing the venues and travel.

 

[Marmozet]

We've played them 3 times at the MCG in the last 20 years.

Round 16 2007: Win
Round 23 2012: Draw
Round 6 2016: Win

True, but I like to stick with my narrative of them not beating us there for 20 years

Might use it in any pre-finals banter if need be

 

[edgie]

We've played them 3 times at the MCG in the last 20 years.

Round 16 2007: Win
Round 23 2012: Draw
Round 6 2016: Win

Ripping first quarter in that game, 16 goals

 

[Willsy10]

Although we've got one game up our sleeves it's a little deflating to be outside the 8 now.

Really need to beat the Hawks to get our spot back in the 8 and a chance to go top 4 with a win against the Tigers on the big Friday night stage in front of a massive home crowd.

Hopefully the boys come back ready to go this week, the SANFL boys sure looked flat on the weekend.

I think if we get through the next two games with two wins, we will be set up very nicely for a top 4 finish.

 

[The Rubber Man]

The afl ladder predictor is unavailable but I found this - https://predictor.squiggle.com.au/ and did a prediction based on current events, form and positions and came up with this :

1
West Coast 20w, 2l, 131.6%
2
Richmond 17w, 5l, 124.5%
3
Port Adelaide 17w, 5l, 118.3%
4
Sydney 16w, 6l, 115.9%
5
Melbourne 15w, 7l, 118.3%
6
Adelaide 14w, 8l, 115.8%
7
North Melbourne 14w, 8l, 113.4%
8
GWS 13w, 8l, 1d, 106.6%

In comparing these with this - http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-03-17/crystal-ball-aflcomaus-2018-predictions - no-one predicted North Melbourne in the eight, all had GWS in the eight and all except one had Geelong in the eight. As GWS are getting players back I am giving them a better chance of going on with it than Geelong.

The percentages should be taken with a grain of salt. The predictor asked for margins which could of course have varied wildly from what I put down. Maybe I was a bit hasty in some predictions and of course we don't know what will happen with form and injuries.

I tried to keep my own Port bias out but apart from tipping that we lose the second Showdown and another game(can't remember which one) I didn't do very well there.

I just did it as well.... ummmm i have us finishing 10th with 12 wins. Crows 4th with 16 wins... I think i have failed to joined in the spirit of 'optimism'.

 

[mic59]

I just did it as well.... ummmm i have us finishing 10th with 12 wins. Crows 4th with 16 wins... I think i have failed to joined in the spirit of 'optimism'.

Following on from current events maybe my prediction of us losing the second showdown would have to be revisited. Although I would have had us beating Melbourne which I am not very confident of now. I redid the predictor and was a bit less forgiving but I still had us on 6 or 7 losses and finishing 5th or 6th.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Hearing how carefully we are having to manage Paddy’s heel makes me a tad less optimistic.

 

[RossFC]

Hearing how carefully we are having to manage Paddy’s heel makes me a tad less optimistic.

Surely the 2 week break between games helps?

 

[Enviable Tradition]

Although we've got one game up our sleeves it's a little deflating to be outside the 8 now.

Really need to beat the Hawks to get our spot back in the 8 and a chance to go top 4 with a win against the Tigers on the big Friday night stage in front of a massive home crowd.

Hopefully the boys come back ready to go this week, the SANFL boys sure looked flat on the weekend.

I think if we get through the next two games with two wins, we will be set up very nicely for a top 4 finish.

I think it is great.

We get to stay below the Crows and fly under the radar for a few more weeks building form and cohesion now that we have our prime midfield all together before we have to face the full expectation (hopefully after we beat Richmond).

 

[EskimoPAFC]

I had a crack, just tried to tip every game honestly. Quite shocked at the results for Sydney and Geelong.

So much could change though, still plenty of time even for WCE to fall away.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Surely the 2 week break between games helps?

He said it will need to be carefully managed all season. Hopefully Hayes improves quickly.

 

[GremioPower]

I had a crack, just tried to tip every game honestly. Quite shocked at the results for Sydney and Geelong.

So much could change though, still plenty of time even for WCE to fall away.

View attachment 503817

EF Showdown!

 

[The Rubber Man]

He said it will need to be carefully managed all season. Hopefully Hayes improves quickly.

I could see hayes have a tim english type impact. Young ruck who probably loses most battles but is serviceable. And sadly thats our best case scenario if ryder goes down.

Bit lets be honest. If ryder has a another long period out. It season over.

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Magus]

I had a crack, just tried to tip every game honestly. Quite shocked at the results for Sydney and Geelong.

So much could change though, still plenty of time even for WCE to fall away.

View attachment 503817

St. Kilda are going to win 4 more games?

 

[Kingfish73]

We have only really played about 6 quality quarters in first 9 weeks. Quarters where our intensity was at max and our skills looked at their best. So much upside if we get our gameday plan right, our confidence increases and key players hit form. In form Gray, Wingard, Rockliff, Motlop, Dixon, Polec will create many headaches for opposition teams. Rockliff is so key in us being consistent in winning contested footy imo. Will be the gel we need within our midfield group

 

[Willsy10]

Form fluctuates so much, some teams go on a run and then fall away and then others come out of nowhere to string games together. The ladder predictor this far out is just impossible, the ones I've seen so far are on the basis that all teams remain consistent with current form, which is never the case.

Who would've thought that the Dees would be where they are now after they got absolutely belted by Hawthorn and Richmond in rounds 4 and 5 and were sitting 2 and 3. No one would've predicted West Coast would be sitting on top of the ladder after round 10, they're a decent side but they're performing out of their skins at the moment but can they keep it up, ditto North Melbourne.

On the flipside there are sides performing well below expectation, Western Bulldogs, St Kilda, Giants, etc. There is a good chance they'll perform better in the second half of the year. The bottom 3 sides have a combined 3 wins between them at the moment, history suggests that they'll get more than that in the second half of the season.

 

[Willsy10]

I think Dixon and Wingard hitting form is key. They're so crucial to our scoring power. Wingard looks to be turning the corner but Dixon is still struggling and is in a massive confidence hole at the moment, hopefully the week off is good for him.