Pies narrowing window, last chance saloon.

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Age - Howe and Sidebottom will turn 30 next year but should bounce back for good seasons and certainly aren't old, same for Roughy. Otherwise Dunn, Varcoe, Mayne, Greenwood, Reid, Beams - not much to worry about missing out on there from the over 30's.

Biggest worry in terms of age is what happens with Pendles. Will be 33 and isn't really suited to playing any position apart from on ball. Does he play some wing and flank to get through the year then back on ball for September? That's probably the smartest way to manage him.

Backline - should still be very strong with Howe back that settles Moore down.

Midfield - Grundy clearly not right this year. Probably needs to keep rotating through young talent - the Brown boys getting dropped for finals not ideal. But clearly still a diverse and talented group.

Forwards - the big question mark. Have to sign up De Goey and Mihocek I'd have thought...unless De Goey can be swapped out for a more consistent true forward? Then hope Will Kelly comes on? Do they chase Ben Brown? Will Stephenson bounce back? A lot of questions.

I don't think it's the last chance saloon, just needs some decent renovations this summer. Fair questions on Pendles tho, inside mids over 33 playing in flag sides aren't all that common I wouldn't think.
Agreed, wouldn't be too worried as a Pies fan, think they'll be up and about for a few years yet.
 

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Need a good trade and draft period this year.

Any more poor trades (Beams) and its curtains for this group imo.

Lets look at the final 4 sides key fwds:

Dixon
Marshall
Lynch
Riewoldt
Hawkins
Hipwood

Pies have nobody in that class.
I was amazed by Buckley’s comments in his presser. He pretty much said KPFs aren’t as important as “multidimensional forwards” in the modern game, or something like that.

As you say, all the top sides have key forwards as a crucial element to their game. Brisbane are getting Daniher to add to it as well. Eagles have JK, Darling and Allen. Saints have King and Marshall.

Key forwards don’t kick as many goals as they used to, but they are still crucial to a team’s success.
 
Need a good trade and draft period this year.

Any more poor trades (Beams) and its curtains for this group imo.

Lets look at the final 4 sides key fwds:

Dixon
Marshall
Lynch
Riewoldt
Hawkins
Hipwood

Pies have nobody in that class.
Riewoldt's cooked, Marshall doesn't touch it and Hipwood either can't take a contested grab or can't kick in through the big sticks - although last week was a big step forward.

I don't think you need 2 these days. It's 1 and another goal kicker. The other tall forward is really just a link and grunt player, chase tackle, crash a few packs.

The Hawkins-Dangerfield pairing might be the blue print. Or the Lynch-Dusty combination. And they've got De Goey for the medium sized part of that if they hold on to him. Cox has now provided the big target in a couple of finals when he's not being completely invisible.

There must be a huge temptation for Brown as he's the closest thing to Lynch and Dixon being a 200cm big target, but I can also see them avoiding it and going for a variety of mobile marking players instead.
 
I was amazed by Buckley’s comments in his presser. He pretty much said KPFs aren’t as important as “multidimensional forwards” in the modern game, or something like that.

As you say, all the top sides have key forwards as a crucial element to their game. Brisbane are getting Daniher to add to it as well. Eagles have JK, Darling and Allen. Saints have King and Marshall.

Key forwards don’t kick as many goals as they used to, but they are still crucial to a team’s success.
Yep. Agree. All of the top 6 sides have big quality key fwds.

Bucks in denial.
 
Riewoldt's cooked, Marshall doesn't touch it and Hipwood either can't take a contested grab or can't kick in through the big sticks - although last week was a big step forward.

I don't think you need 2 these days. It's 1 and another goal kicker. The other tall forward is really just a link and grunt player, chase tackle, crash a few packs.

The Hawkins-Dangerfield pairing might be the blue print. Or the Lynch-Dusty combination. And they've got De Goey for the medium sized part of that if they hold on to him. Cox has now provided the big target in a couple of finals when he's not being completely invisible.

There must be a huge temptation for Brown as he's the closest thing to Lynch and Dixon being a 200cm big target, but I can also see them avoiding it and going for a variety of mobile marking players instead.
Hipwood just on 23yo and has 136 career goals already.
Marshall only 22yo.
Both are guns.

Lions Hipwood/Rayner/Cameron will be lethal for years.
 
Collingwood’s gameplan looked awesome in 2018. They had so many forwards playing well, and were really unpredictable going forward. Think it’s time for a re-shuffle and to get some better support around Buckley who’s a meticulous planner but has no flexibility during the course of a game.

Cameron has to be their biggest target over the off-season.
 
Riewoldt's cooked

Riewoldt's powers are clearly waning but he still finished 6th in the Coleman. Was deathly quiet last night, but others have claimed he led Paton away from the fall of the ball and allowed Lynch to effectively impact the contests.

He may well be the competition's slowest player and is getting by largely on smarts, but I think he has another year's contribution to make.
 
Hipwood just on 23yo and has 136 career goals already.
Marshall only 22yo.
Both are guns.

Lions Hipwood/Rayner/Cameron will be lethal for years.
Marshall's yet to crack double figures average possessions and now has 2 years averaging less than a goal a game. There's very little evidence that he is or ever will be anything more than a big flanker with some neat skills.

I have more hope for Hipwood but he seems to have stagnated as a talented but hardly scary key forward despite excellent supply from his midfield. Would Brisbane really be bringing in Joe Daniher if they had confidence he was going to be the main man?

The point is 1 gun big man with solid supporting talls and other paths to goal is more than enough. The pies might look for no gun true big man but someone like Gunston and increase their forward talent in other ways.
 
Interesting conversations since the bump:
  • Key Forwards or lack of
  • Pendles waning form as an 'inside' mid
Key Forwards, we haven't had a true key forward since Cloke, so it's system that has let us down. In 2018 our system gave us scoring power through unpredictability.

Pendles, he's never really been in 'inside' mid, certainly not a grunt type like Adams, Wills or Sier. He is more so an outside type player - that's where he's most effective, making time and space where there is none.

Neither of these are really key issues, Cox can be a good if not great forward, delivery is the issue and that is more so than not the contributing factor to our scoring woes. There are better key forwards in the market, but we really don't have the cap space to replace a better potential version of Cox or the developing Kelly.

Is the window shut? IF we continue down this path of how we play and only put in rare performances on how we should play - then yeah it's over. I've claimed it's shut, welded and bolted throughout this season because of our stagnant game play among other things.

All of that relies on other factors like development, in our very young group it's been promising. Noble, Q and Daicos have been good. Our mid age group like Jordy, Moore and Maynard haven't improved liked I'd hoped. Not to mention injuries, coaching issues (development and in game tactics) and off field disruptions.

Is the potential there?, absolutely it is, will the club capitalize on that potential? That is the question that will be answered and will ultimately decide if we can win the whole box and dice. It will decide if we've thrown another window out the window.
 
I think no one can argue against now that the Pies window is firmly shut, and at massive cost which just rubs salt into the wound.

A few dark years ahead for the club now. :(

Opposition fans enjoy our misery, the club has earned it for us.
 

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I think no one can argue against now that the Pies window is firmly shut, and at massive cost which just rubs salt into the wound.

A few dark years ahead for the club now. :(

Opposition fans enjoy our misery, the club has earned it for us.

I think that you are most likely correct

Sidebottom , Pendles , Howe , Roughead are all most likely gone in the next 2 years whilst the pies starting to claw back then you always have the 'unknown' futures of players like Cox , De Goey as well as another 7-8 players that just have not delivered or just list cloggers like Sier / WHE.

It wouldnt surprise me to see Collingwood miss finals in 2021 and fall even further in 2022
Eddie finishing up and if pies miss finals surely Buckley will need to be sacked or step down
 
I think no one can argue against now that the Pies window is firmly shut, and at massive cost which just rubs salt into the wound.

A few dark years ahead for the club now. :(

Opposition fans enjoy our misery, the club has earned it for us.
I'm not sure it will be dark years, such as several seasons in the bottom 4 or anything like that. More likely to bounce in and out of finals while the next group develop and become the core players. West Coast had a rebuild in 2008-2010, then two years playing finals before missing another two and then going on their current run, resulting in two GF and a flag. Could see pies doing something similar: a couple of mid table finishes before a bounce up the ladder.

The squad is nowhere near as bad as North or Crows. Neither as unbalanced as Hawks or Sydney. Don't see it in bottom 4 territory at all.
 
I think no one can argue against now that the Pies window is firmly shut, and at massive cost which just rubs salt into the wound.

A few dark years ahead for the club now. :(

Opposition fans enjoy our misery, the club has earned it for us.
assuming there might be a couple of middling years coming up (won't drop too low), would you keep Bucks for the next push in a few years time? Or out with Ed?
 
assuming there might be a couple of middling years coming up (won't drop too low), would you keep Bucks for the next push in a few years time? Or out with Ed?

That all depends on game and player development, on face value there's no reason for optimism. Of course our failings are coincidentally linked to our assistants in Harvey and Sanderson, both of who have stayed on.

IF the game style stays same same, I can't see them or Bucks surviving and nor should they. IF it improves then there's no reason to miss finals or even contend, that would be a great development year.

Middling years may as well be bottom 4 years, neither is positive unless there is upside in future.
 
I'm not sure it will be dark years, such as several seasons in the bottom 4 or anything like that. More likely to bounce in and out of finals while the next group develop and become the core players. West Coast had a rebuild in 2008-2010, then two years playing finals before missing another two and then going on their current run, resulting in two GF and a flag. Could see pies doing something similar: a couple of mid table finishes before a bounce up the ladder.

The squad is nowhere near as bad as North or Crows. Neither as unbalanced as Hawks or Sydney. Don't see it in bottom 4 territory at all.

The core of the group in the under 28yo bracket is solid, you know the names. It's the bottom half a dozen or so where the cliff arrives. On face value it looks disastrous from a list perspective, if you look at the premiers it's not a lot different.

You could name a player that is not blue chip in that flag side and I'll tell you that system and role player culture is why that player is 'good' or 'better' than the non blue chips in the Pies side.

Look at 2017, the Pies were a rabble and with near zero list change they contended. All on the back of great system and culture.

Even now the list is not the issure, sure it's not a wc or giants list, neither are the premiers. The issue is not getting anywhere near potential out of it and it looks to stay the course unfortunately.
 
I think that you are most likely correct

Sidebottom , Pendles , Howe , Roughead are all most likely gone in the next 2 years whilst the pies starting to claw back then you always have the 'unknown' futures of players like Cox , De Goey as well as another 7-8 players that just have not delivered or just list cloggers like Sier / WHE.

It wouldnt surprise me to see Collingwood miss finals in 2021 and fall even further in 2022
Eddie finishing up and if pies miss finals surely Buckley will need to be sacked or step down

Sides and Howe are 29 and 30 and don't look like dropping form dramatically anytime soon. Nor Pendles, he may step aside in that time but is such a durable athlete it's hard to know.

My point is that from a list perspective it's still a contender, only one year has it been utilized to potential.

Further considering we have the same coaching panel I don't see any change in game style, IF there is change then that points to a good year in game an player development. Then and only then we will see any hope for years after.
 
Sides and Howe are 29 and 30 and don't look like dropping form dramatically anytime soon. Nor Pendles, he may step aside in that time but is such a durable athlete it's hard to know.

My point is that from a list perspective it's still a contender, only one year has it been utilized to potential.

Further considering we have the same coaching panel I don't see any change in game style, IF there is change then that points to a good year in game an player development. Then and only then we will see any hope for years after.
Disagree with that

I dont see the pies as a serious contender but just making up numbers in 2021 , The worst thing they can do is to believe they can somehow tweak the list with a couple of changes and remain at the top half. I see atleast another 5 players that wont be there on the list after 2021 and with little depth in quality and experience now.
Re Pendles,Sidebottom and Howe i did mention in 2 years
 
Disagree with that

I dont see the pies as a serious contender but just making up numbers in 2021 , The worst thing they can do is to believe they can somehow tweak the list with a couple of changes and remain at the top half. I see atleast another 5 players that wont be there on the list after 2021 and with little depth in quality and experience now.
Re Pendles,Sidebottom and Howe i did mention in 2 years

Ok agree to disagree, how is it that this basket case list went from middling to contender after 2017 with near zero list change?

You can argue the list all day, the list is not the problem, a little unbalanced but it's not a 'make up the numbers' type list.

The problem is the mismanagement and waste of the list that attracts my realism.

So without going down a rabbit hole, IMV the window is shut because of how the club and more closely the FD operates - not the list.
 
Ok agree to disagree, how is it that this basket case list went from middling to contender after 2017 with near zero list change?

You can argue the list all day, the list is not the problem, a little unbalanced but it's not a 'make up the numbers' type list.

The problem is the mismanagement and waste of the list that attracts my realism.

So without going down a rabbit hole, IMV the window is shut because of how the club and more closely the FD operates - not the list.
They were a reasonable side playing a different gamestyle that was similar to Richmonds pressure game and went deep with some things falling their way but never in 2018 did i think that Pies would have made the GF. But kind of like the Doggies in 16' without winning it

I look at the Pies list and try to project 2 years with players that i dont see being there and discounting 1-3 year players and really dont see a great deal of quality and the quality in that age group has question marks like De Goey who i can see taking a better deal in 2 years as a free agent and leaving

Just looks like an unbalanced list with some triers and some stars but with alot in between that are very 'iffy' but thats just my view and could be totally wrong due to maybe watching the wrong games at the wrong times for these players but i do watch alot of footy and i dont see Pies in the 8 in 2021 and falling further down in the following years. Kind of like Hawks 12-24 months ago
 
They were a reasonable side playing a different gamestyle that was similar to Richmonds pressure game and went deep with some things falling their way but never in 2018 did i think that Pies would have made the GF. But kind of like the Doggies in 16' without winning it

I look at the Pies list and try to project 2 years with players that i dont see being there and discounting 1-3 year players and really dont see a great deal of quality and the quality in that age group has question marks like De Goey who i can see taking a better deal in 2 years as a free agent and leaving

Just looks like an unbalanced list with some triers and some stars but with alot in between that are very 'iffy' but thats just my view and could be totally wrong due to maybe watching the wrong games at the wrong times for these players but i do watch alot of footy and i dont see Pies in the 8 in 2021 and falling further down in the following years. Kind of like Hawks 12-24 months ago

Yeah unbalanced and agree it's not full of stars, nor are the Tigers, but they're premiers and lists like wc and giants are not.

Why? Because the system and culture of Richmond is the difference between being premiers and how you view the Pies list and where we're at. Putting it down purely to list is highly naive.

Again, you can argue or devalue that list all day long, proof is in the failing of the use of it.

If the dogs could win it in 16 or the Tigers in 17 then the Pies could do also.

But they won't because of lack of putting the list to best use. Unless that changes then no Flagpies.
 
Yeah unbalanced and agree it's not full of stars, nor are the Tigers, but they're premiers and lists like wc and giants are not.

Why? Because the system and culture of Richmond is the difference between being premiers and how you view the Pies list and where we're at. Putting it down purely to list is highly naive.

Again, you can argue or devalue that list all day long, proof is in the failing of the use of it.

If the dogs could win it in 16 or the Tigers in 17 then the Pies could do also.

But they won't because of lack of putting the list to best use. Unless that changes then no Flagpies.

But with the richmond list its been assembled and developed to play a game style that does not require the team to have numerous stars but players to play a certain way to maintain pressure and move the ball at all cost where the Pies list and game plan is different and an inferior version to the Cats/eagles style in ways and without the quality thats extremely difficult to maintain.

The Pies in 2018 had a game style that resembled the Tigers game style and it worked better but they reverted back in 2019 to more possession and contested game. Not sure what that reason but with out KPP that can dominate their positions it difficult to implement .

I see teams like St Kilda , Port , Cats , Carlton , Brisbane , Bulldogs and even melbourne being better in 2021 but cannot see the same with the Pies and if injuries do hit then its lights out with the thin depth now on the list with unknown kids taking up nearly 20 spots
 
Depth has to be a big issue now, after losing regular best 22 types Treloar, Stephenson and Phillips and not replacing them with others with their quality/experience combo.

If they have almost no injuries they could still be a good team, but they've consistently had a lot of injuries in recent years, so if that trend continues they're in trouble.

If they don't land a really big fish in the next year or two they might be years off really contending again.

The messy/ugly way Treloar was treated will presumably make said "big fish" think twice though.
 
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