Positives and Negatives vs Geelong

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Interesting observation made by Mead over at EFH, and if this goes against any rules, please dekete my post.

"After a crushing loss like that there's a tendency to resort to easy responses like questioning effort of players but here's the awkward statistical fact- our on ball unit actually did ok, they won the clearances 41-39.

But even with our mids getting a decent amount of first use Geelong utterly dominated us in possession 2:1, and put the ball inside 50 2:1.

That screams to me that the problem is structural rather than effort based. Good teams have figured out how to totally shut down our ball movement between the arcs, I think by setting up a fairly flat zone 20-30m ahead of the ball carrier and double teaming/playing.in front of JK/Darling behind that.

I am hoping against hope that narrow grounds function like wet grounds in terms of making this possible, but honestly I think we are in the s**t big time."
I hate statements like this. So misleading. Ok, yeah we "won" the clearances, but how many were Gaff blindly banging it on the boot to a Geelong player in front of his opponent? They set up for this scenario and reaped the rewards. Redden out hurt us greatly.
 
disagree. we learnt that Hickey relishes being a solo ruckman
Yes but they didnt pick a player that was going to add the run we shouldve been looking for by dropping vardy.they just added another tall,albeit one thats played some midfield on occassion.
Matty allen wouldve added some inside ball winning,nelson wouldve added some run and versatility. Both are more physically likely to stand up to geelongs hardened veterens

Sent from my SM-G950F using Tapatalk
 

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Another thing I noticed, Geelongs warm up before the toss was high intensity sprints etc while our blokes just ambled half heartedly through the drills. We did the same last year as well but could be a factor in us getting off to slow starts.
 
Making statements about a team you don't follow?
Ok, so that definitely explains the "accuracy" of all your statements about the Eagles last year.

Fan or not, the important thing is that you're always a warm ray of sunshine and great to have around :)

Also, if we'd been given the same draw as the Dockers to start the season I think we would have banked one more win than they have so far. I mean they couldn't even beat the Eagles, who are a hopeless pile of s**t with no future. So that's an extra win we definitely would have got.
 
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An interesting bit of micro-analysis from Kingy:



I think being in slo-mo makes this look worse than it is for Hutch. Seeing when his centre of gravity shifts illustrates when he commits to his man. At that moment he would rightly think that Cole has Miers covered.
Still could have gone a different route of course, but to me this is at least as damning for Cole as it is for Hutchings. It does say something about our lack of "pack mentality" though.
 
The game was a total and utter disaster.


It gave us nothing. NOTHING. Usually there's a couple tid bits or positives to take away from a shocking loss, but that was just an absolute nightmare game.

Hickey was obviously a shining light, but you can argue that even his performance was blighted by the fact Stanley bad pretty much the exact same influence for them.



- Darling has reverted back to being a mentally weak, disinterested wet blanket.

3 marks and 1 tackle in his past 2 games. Has not taken a contested mark in his last 3 games. In 2018 he averaged 2.6 per game.


- Kennedy really does look like an ageing bloke these days. Gets beaten by his opponent more often than not, no matter who it is. We can't rely on him now.

- Schofield shouldn't be in the team. Cole has been in poor form for quite some time.

- Cripps... yikes. Maybe he just plays like a spud when Darling and Kennedy do too. Another beneficiary of us having no forward depth to make him accountable.

- Brander and Petch quiet. Other than Petch's goal we couldn't even get any shining lights from our young players.

- Almost feinted when Gaff kicked a decent drop punt to a leading player, and almost had a stroke when that player was Darling who actually marked it. Only took till 4th quarter.
 

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The game was a total and utter disaster.


It gave us nothing. NOTHING. Usually there's a couple tid bits or positives to take away from a shocking loss, but that was just an absolute nightmare game.

Hickey was obviously a shining light, but you can argue that even his performance was blighted by the fact Stanley bad pretty much the exact same influence for them.



- Darling has reverted back to being a mentally weak, disinterested wet blanket.

3 marks and 1 tackle in his past 2 games. Has not taken a contested mark in his last 3 games. In 2018 he averaged 2.6 per game.


- Kennedy really does look like an ageing bloke these days. Gets beaten by his opponent more often than not, no matter who it is. We can't rely on him now.

- Schofield shouldn't be in the team. Cole has been in poor form for quite some time.

- Cripps... yikes. Maybe he just plays like a spud when Darling and Kennedy do too. Another beneficiary of us having no forward depth to make him accountable.

- Brander and Petch quiet. Other than Petch's goal we couldn't even get any shining lights from our young players.

- Almost feinted when Gaff kicked a decent drop punt to a leading player, and almost had a stroke when that player was Darling who actually marked it. Only took till 4th quarter.

I think this is really harsh on Kennedy. He is getting absolutely mauled by defenders and getting nothing from the umps. The way we are bringing the ball inside 50 is simply unacceptable. He's had a few go through the hands on the lead which is surprising.

We've got a Rolls Royce and we are making him drive in a demo derby.
 
I hate statements like this. So misleading. Ok, yeah we "won" the clearances, but how many were Gaff blindly banging it on the boot to a Geelong player in front of his opponent? They set up for this scenario and reaped the rewards. Redden out hurt us greatly.

Not just Gaff sadly. Plenty were kicking around corners from clearances.

I keep hearing that we are losing the 'contest', but to me that is far too simplistic. Gut feel (waiting for stats to make a fool of me) is that we are getting beaten in our forward and backlines on ground ball and CP's - but our midfield is ok... not winning it, but close to matching it.

I saw some analysis from David King a couple of weeks back - focused on CB clearances but still relevant - that when a team handballs more than twice during a clearance they score close to 50% of the time from that clearance chain. Our clearance work seems to focus on getting it forward as quickly as possible, which is the opposite of what is working this season.

I'm just not sure of the value of what we are trying to do at the moment. We play Masten (not getting into the debate on his place in the side specifically) and he takes the opposite wing at a stoppage - allowing Gaff to roll into the stoppage as our 'extra' in a quarterback position. But then the plan seems to be to shovel it out to him under pressure so he can kick around his body. Of course the opposition just sit their spare 40m away behind the play and intercept, switch, goal, rinse, repeat.

We have quite a few players who are seriously damaging when given time and space to deliver inside 50 (notwithstanding the numerous dropped marks yesterday) - but seem so intent on not allowing the opposition any space that we rob ourselves of it. Newsflash - we are currently getting killed on the outside anyway, and creating more space around a contest couldn't possibly make it any worse (and may actually allow our attacking player to also be defensive if we lose the clearance).

I know that's only one area of our issue, but positioning is quite easy to change (gamestyle is much harder to adjust) - hopefully we see some improved positioning this week.
 
Not just Gaff sadly. Plenty were kicking around corners from clearances.

I keep hearing that we are losing the 'contest', but to me that is far too simplistic. Gut feel (waiting for stats to make a fool of me) is that we are getting beaten in our forward and backlines on ground ball and CP's - but our midfield is ok... not winning it, but close to matching it.

I saw some analysis from David King a couple of weeks back - focused on CB clearances but still relevant - that when a team handballs more than twice during a clearance they score close to 50% of the time from that clearance chain. Our clearance work seems to focus on getting it forward as quickly as possible, which is the opposite of what is working this season.

I'm just not sure of the value of what we are trying to do at the moment. We play Masten (not getting into the debate on his place in the side specifically) and he takes the opposite wing at a stoppage - allowing Gaff to roll into the stoppage as our 'extra' in a quarterback position. But then the plan seems to be to shovel it out to him under pressure so he can kick around his body. Of course the opposition just sit their spare 40m away behind the play and intercept, switch, goal, rinse, repeat.

We have quite a few players who are seriously damaging when given time and space to deliver inside 50 (notwithstanding the numerous dropped marks yesterday) - but seem so intent on not allowing the opposition any space that we rob ourselves of it. Newsflash - we are currently getting killed on the outside anyway, and creating more space around a contest couldn't possibly make it any worse (and may actually allow our attacking player to also be defensive if we lose the clearance).

I know that's only one area of our issue, but positioning is quite easy to change (gamestyle is much harder to adjust) - hopefully we see some improved positioning this week.
totally agree. having Gaff receive the hard ball get then bomb is a bad tactic, he doesnt even look to handball it back to a free eagle. And if that is our tactic, why aint the players clued onto it and front and center when we do bomb it out? We were behind in most contests yesterday.
 
No-look hack kicks are rarely a great option, but I have slightly more tolerance for them when they're from someone with a penetrating kick. That's something Gaff doesn't have, so it's more problematic than usual when it's him doing it.
 
No-look hack kicks are rarely a great option, but I have slightly more tolerance for them when they're from someone with a penetrating kick. That's something Gaff doesn't have, so it's more problematic than usual when it's him doing it.
When you have the talent to fire out 2-3 quick handballs to a free teammate, you should be doing that. We proved we could quickly transition from congested play to the wings last year, what has changed? We revert back to blind kicks?
 
Positive:

Lowering my expectations for this year.

That way im not as emotionally invested in the result.
Think I’m having a supporters premiership hangover at this point. Would be great to go again obviously but I think it’s going to be hard to beat the events of last season.. Even if we took the flag out again it’s a little bit of “This is where we should be and anything else is an underachievement”. Little different to last year when we were just riding the wave of being underdogs and underappreciated throughout the season
 
The major positive is that we have the following coming up:

Gold Coast (H)
St Kilda (A)
Melbourne (H)
Adelaide (A)
WB (H)

If we have any designs on going B2B that should be a 5-0 stretch. St Kilda are going (we'll see this week when they face GWS) OK and knowing our luck Melbourne and Adelaide will be in form by then, but it's better than bastard Kardinia Park where we have stunk since we still had the shield shaped AFL logo on our jumper.

The other positive about an even season is that (other than when there is a draw) each week 9 teams earn 0 points and the more even it is the more 8 pointers there are. Coll vs Port, GWS vs St K, Geel vs Ess, Adel vs Freo... these games just this week alone all affect teams around us. Just need to get a couple more wins on the board and let the rest of the ladder look after itself. Last year's top 4 were on 10 (2nd), 9 (1st), 7 (3rd) and 6 (4th) wins at the half way point last year.
 
Perhaps. We have been on the end of a brutal schedule to date and our three wins have been against top four teams. Our draw does open up in the next 8 rounds so our destiny is in our hands.

The grave concern about yesterday is the -150 possessions. That is a complete and utter breakdown. Basically Geelong had the equivalent of 5 extra players all getting the footy 30 times each. How can that even happen?

Honestly, I think the dimensions of Simonds Stadium might have had something to do with it.

When we basically redid the gameplan in 2018, we focused on perfecting it to the MCG. It was pretty much a necessity for us, and, as history shows, it worked. However, that shift also resulted in a couple of other things:
* It puts us at a disadvantage in slippery conditions, due to the reliance on marking (look at the Essendon game last year, pretty much the exact same conditions as the Port game).
* Skinnier grounds make executing it much more difficult.

Think back to 2018, how many Sunday games did we have? Nearly 80% of them were sunny and clear. That actually proved to be an advantage for us in the end - and, inadvertently, sort of hid the fact that our gameplan struggles in slippery conditions. Our worst games last year always had the same theme; bad weather (North, Essendon, the Port game), but it was ultimately a sacrifice worth making, since it meant we now played the MCG better then before.

And it's the same thing with skinny grounds. We changed our gameplan from taking advantage of the shorter dimensions at Subi, to using the full expanse of Perth Stadium and, ultimately, the MCG. Unfortunately, that also meant we lost our ability to flat track at home and play skinny grounds well - just look at our games in Adelaide last year.

Geelong is similar to us in 2015 (to an extent). They have a massive home ground advantage (due to dimensions, crowds etc), but struggle at the MCG to win games. Coming up against them on Sunday was always going to be a challenge, and that was only exasperated by the fact their oval is antithetical to our gameplan.

Now, I'm not ignoring the fact that a large part of these losses was also due to effort/personnel, but I think the aforementioned was definitely a factor. It isn't as dire as it might look on the surface, and we should be able to adapt and overcome.
 
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We have been out played in our last 11 quarters, and look totally dis interested, i think we have a problem, as i said i hope i'm wrong, but the signs and lack of effort are concerning.

And you honestly don't think we can turn it around, despite what we did only six months ago?

Love your optimism. We have bigger issues than you are fully admitting.

Oh, I'm not ignoring them, I just think some are jumping to conclusions far too quickly on here.
 

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