Analysis PROS v CONS of finishing last, winning spoon...
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Pros: Pick 2
Cons: Pick 3. But losing. And being further off the mark than ever before.
For the record, I'm calling it early - we will get a priority pick. If we lose - we have a 1 win season, including losing to doped down Essendon. If we win - a 2 win season isn't much better, and the AFL will prefer Essendon don't get pick 1 as a reward for doping.
Speaking of - I did some sums to see how much Essendon actually got draft sanctioned.
2013 - lost pick 10 (1395 points) and pick 31 (606 points)
2014 - lost pick 13 (1212 points) and pick 34 (542 points) and gained pick 20 (912 points)
2015 - technically none.
So, they got directly punished 2843 draft points. For the record, pick 1 is 3000 points. So they didn't lose a pick 1.
Indirectly:
2015 was heavily impacted by the ASADA scandal, and 2016 is destroyed by half the squad suspended. In 2013 they came 9th, in 2014 they came 7th. If we suggest that without the scandal, they'd have finished 9th in 2015 and 2016, we get the following:
2015 - had pick 5 (1878) instead of pick 11 (1329)
2016 - either pick 1 (3000) or pick 2 (2517) instead of pick 10 (1395) - not allowing for F/S or Academy bids pushing pick 10 back.
This means that indirectly, they gain either 2154 (if they finish with pick 1) or 1671 (pick 2) points from the bad results for 2015 and 2016.
Overall, their total draft punishment is around 930 points (averaged), or the equivalent of losing a pick 20.
This works out well for the AFL, because while they're cranky at Essendon for the unwanted attention, they don't actually want them to suffer all that much - not good for advertising. That said, the draft night would be overshadowed by Essendon if they got pick 1, so I REALLY don't think the AFL will let them keep it, regardless of the noises AFL House are making in the media.
Cons: Pick 3. But losing. And being further off the mark than ever before.
For the record, I'm calling it early - we will get a priority pick. If we lose - we have a 1 win season, including losing to doped down Essendon. If we win - a 2 win season isn't much better, and the AFL will prefer Essendon don't get pick 1 as a reward for doping.
Speaking of - I did some sums to see how much Essendon actually got draft sanctioned.
2013 - lost pick 10 (1395 points) and pick 31 (606 points)
2014 - lost pick 13 (1212 points) and pick 34 (542 points) and gained pick 20 (912 points)
2015 - technically none.
So, they got directly punished 2843 draft points. For the record, pick 1 is 3000 points. So they didn't lose a pick 1.
Indirectly:
2015 was heavily impacted by the ASADA scandal, and 2016 is destroyed by half the squad suspended. In 2013 they came 9th, in 2014 they came 7th. If we suggest that without the scandal, they'd have finished 9th in 2015 and 2016, we get the following:
2015 - had pick 5 (1878) instead of pick 11 (1329)
2016 - either pick 1 (3000) or pick 2 (2517) instead of pick 10 (1395) - not allowing for F/S or Academy bids pushing pick 10 back.
This means that indirectly, they gain either 2154 (if they finish with pick 1) or 1671 (pick 2) points from the bad results for 2015 and 2016.
Overall, their total draft punishment is around 930 points (averaged), or the equivalent of losing a pick 20.
This works out well for the AFL, because while they're cranky at Essendon for the unwanted attention, they don't actually want them to suffer all that much - not good for advertising. That said, the draft night would be overshadowed by Essendon if they got pick 1, so I REALLY don't think the AFL will let them keep it, regardless of the noises AFL House are making in the media.
If it was my club I would want to win, just because it makes the weekend a hell of a lot better. And I don't think it matters whether you win or not, you will (and should) get a priority pick. A 4 win season followed by a 1 or 2 win season, with the number of departures in recent years and the financial issues should be enough for the AFL to do the right thing.
You will also be happy to know that if you get a priority pick at the start of the first round you will be indirectly helping the pies. We have been feeling down all season about the fact that we have given away our first round pick. If we can somehow manage to finish ninth, and you get a priority pick, we can say that we didn't give up a second top 10 pick for Treloar. Happy days.
You will also be happy to know that if you get a priority pick at the start of the first round you will be indirectly helping the pies. We have been feeling down all season about the fact that we have given away our first round pick. If we can somehow manage to finish ninth, and you get a priority pick, we can say that we didn't give up a second top 10 pick for Treloar. Happy days.
Yeah nah.
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Whatever helps you sleep at night
I can honestly not see us getting a PP at all. I think if we are still rotten next season we may have a case but even then I'd be reluctant to bet on it.
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I never, ever, ever, ever want to see our club finish last under any circumstances. Would rather not finish last, no matter how good "the best kid in the country" supposedly is.
Also if we somehow avoid last place, I would have no issues with the Dons getting pick one, IMO they have been punished enough, but honestly all their punishments should have been done and over with years ago.
Having said that if we do finish last, we deserve it because we are legitimately the worst team in the comp by a country mile
Also if we somehow avoid last place, I would have no issues with the Dons getting pick one, IMO they have been punished enough, but honestly all their punishments should have been done and over with years ago.
Having said that if we do finish last, we deserve it because we are legitimately the worst team in the comp by a country mile
I'd trade a PP in a heartbeat for some real assistance in getting new facilities (in a decent location) over the line. Debt relief would be nice too! A PP is a bandaid that may or may no work for us... long term the only thing that will help is making Brisbane a place the is comparable to all other clubs.
...if it's every going to happen, surely this must be the year? I can't imagine we can set a better example of how desperate we are for help than we have in 2016.
(actually i can imagine, but putting it in writing would surely make it come true!)
The flaw in your plan here is you're not going to finish 9th. So even if we get a PP, you still gave up 2 top 10 picks for treloar... yep, that does make me happy!
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Gadzorks
Norm Smith Medallist
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Given the emphasis on being at the bottom of the rebuild I don't see us trading a top ten pick for anyone.
We won the last game in 2015 - that really helped in 2016. It is what it is - we are clearly the worst team. Why ? Well ....
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Doubt the VFL would even bother giving us a PP, it's all about making sure that the Victorian sides stay strong.
Gadzorks
Norm Smith Medallist
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PP comes at bottom of the rebuild when also getting a couple of years worth of high draft selections.
Based on that we are right on schedule for one.
Except that a PP hasn't been given since before they took away the automatic criteria.
No doubt we fit a criteria to receive a PP, but given the formula is a secret it's all too easy for the AFL not to give one due pressure from other clubs... the old "why should they be rewarded for their own failings" argument is pretty strong!
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From an AFL-point of view it's a good time to give one because there will be minimal pressure from other clubs. The most vocal of clubs, Collingwood, don't even have a first-rounder - neither do Melbourne. Gold Coast will be tied up with academy selections too.
By their own admission the AFL would realise the system is largely flawed but they'd also realise this is the year they could get away with giving out a PP without too much backlash.
Bucking Beads
Brownlow Medallist
You only have to look at the Ladder to see how far back we really are. We have 1 win and are tied with the Bombers who only have 1 win because they are missing 12 of their players. Freo have 3 wins but have been decimated with injury. Next we have the Suns who have 5 wins and have been decimated with injuries. We are the worst team in the competitions by a long long way.
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Completely separate issues?
There has been a lot of discussion about wanting a pure and un-compromised draft. This normally means fair and un-compromised for all the clubs that don't suffer from being outside a normal football state, clubs that have the ability to poach player at will, clubs that can attract top line free agents, clubs with a long father-son history...
When it was Melbourne / Carlton / Collingwood / Hawthorn getting PP, and then the GWS / GC debarcle I was also calling for a un-compromised draft. Now we've suffered through it and there's attempts to try and address the fairness, I wouldn't be opposed to being the beneficiary of what the other clubs have received.
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Fair call but IMO any scrutiny of the academy system would stem from the success Sydney and GWS have/are having rather than a reflection of our chance of getting a PP.
