Preview R2: Changes v Port

[WaynesWorld19]

Analysis of defensive setups last year

Wins in 2015 per Tall Defence Setup:
Three Talls:
Talia - Hartigan - Lever: 4 Wins (West Coast, Essendon, Richmond, Port Adelaide*) 3 Losses (West Coast, Sydney, Geelong)
Hartigan - Lever - Shaw: 1 Win (Gold Coast)
Talia - Hartigan - Shaw: 1 Win (Brisbane)

Two Talls:
Talia - Hartigan - Cheney: 3 Wins (North, Collingwood, Western Bulldogs), 1 Loss (Hawthorn)
Talia - Hartigan - Kelly: 1 Win (Melbourne) 1 Loss (Western Bulldogs)
Talia - Lever - Cheney - Kelly: 2 Wins (Gold Coast, St Kilda), 2 Losses (GWS, Fremantle)
Talia - Hartigan - Cheney - Kelly: 2 Wins (Carlton, Brisbane) 1 Loss (Hawthorn)

One Tall:
Talia - Kelly - Cheney: 1 Loss (Port Adelaide)

Based on this information we had success of 66% (3 talls), 62% (2 talls) and 0% (1 tall)

Against Top 8 sides this changes to 50% (3 talls) and 33% (2 talls)

Our most effective setup was Talia - Hartigan - Cheney, followed by Talia - Hartigan - Lever. We actually never played with Talia - Hartigan - Lever - Cheney at any stage

*Talia subbed out early

My God man .....i got tired just trying to read this ....nevermind actually compiling the info ?

I'd be very surprised if statistical data can answer whatever question you were seeking to answer ? .....each side has different players, quality, heights, and importantly game styles

As Ross Lyon ...or any good coach for that matter says ......statistics may validate what you see ....but you have to trust your eyes in this game

 

[Red mist]

Mackay will not be dropped. The pressure acts stat released by the club (see posts above) confirms this.

VB, McGovern, Milera are the 3 in the gun. Cheney is safe.

Knight will absolutely come in for one of the 3 above. Lock it in.

Hartigan / Cameron may come in for another.

Lyons / CEY are both an outside chance if we feel we need an extra mid, or if there's a secret injury.

Nobody else is even remotely in the frame. Not Beech, not Henderson, not Menzel. Nobody.

Gut feel is 1-2 changes, with the only in or out I'm certain about being Knight in.

A probable scenario.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Agreed, he played an ok game by his standards.

But who would you rather in the team, Mackay or Knight? Mackay or Cameron?

Mackay or Seedsman ? .......if you're using stats then Seedsman is out

BTW i think Seedsman can be the better longterm player .....but he's not currently

 

[Shoota Welsh]

Interesting stat released by the club

Rory Sloane and David Mackay led the way for Adelaide with 19 pressure acts apiece, while hard-working debutant Mitch McGovern had 15 in 74 per cent game time.

ohh fk off crows. releasing shit like this to try and prove he was any good. whats the use of trying to tacakle a player when you cant stick it and he runs off into space while mackay is lying on the ground and a goal results.... happens all too often

 

[TheLeftFist8]

It's not as simple as that. There are different roles in the team that players fill. The role that Mackay fills is not going to be filled by Cameron or Knight. There is no question that those two are in our best 22 but they both play different roles to Mackay. If you are looking for role similarity, Mackay and Seedsman play similar roles. Outside running mids/wingers who are there to provide a bit of pace, dash and run and carry. Both didn't get enough of it against Kangaroos but both did well with the possessions they did get, both kicked a goal.

Knight could easily fill that position!

Depending on fitness, Cameron could too…he shouldn't be pigeon-holed as a forward pocket his whole career.

Not every selection has to be an exact like for like swap either, players are allowed to play a slightly different position one week to the next. Sloane could easily play wing, Seedsman could easily play half back, Douglas, Milera…the list goes on.

Or we could set a ridiculously low benchmark.

Speaking of positional paradigms…one wonders if VB gets his spot because early on in the pre-season it was determined that he was to be our 'team defence' set-up leader behind the ball? #non-statistical

 

[WaynesWorld19]

ohh fk off crows. releasing shit like this to try and prove he was any good. whats the use of trying to tacakle a player when you cant stick it and he runs off into space while mackay is lying on the ground and a goal results.... happens all too often

See i told you NikkiNoo what would be the impact of your post

 

[1970crow]

What odds on Crows selectors dropping McGovern and Milera for the showdown?

Short. I'd have my cash on Knight in and one of those out as the only change.

 

[dogs105]

ohh fk off crows. releasing shit like this to try and prove he was any good. whats the use of trying to tacakle a player when you cant stick it and he runs off into space while mackay is lying on the ground and a goal results.... happens all too often

Did it happen on the weekend?

 

[Godallblighty]

Be interested to know the score if that was EFFECTIVE pressure acts.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Mackay or Seedsman ? .......if you're using stats then Seedsman is out

BTW i think Seedsman can be the better longterm player .....but he's not currently

Seedsman has way more upside, selectors have to make the call.

One of Seedsman or Milera should move to half back this week (but won't because full time footballers can seemingly only play one role in a given year)

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Seedsman has way more upside, selectors have to make the call.

One of Seedsman or Milera should move to half back this week (but won't because full time footballers can seemingly only play one role in a given year)

Good post spoiled by this

 

[TheLeftFist8]

How hard is it to understand that Mackay had an OK game?! But when has this been the benchmark for working towards a premiership team?

If that were his first game, it would've been a very encouraging debut but when it's his 140+ game then I expect a lot more (especially given that most haven't been very good in recent times)

 

[Shoota Welsh]

It's not as simple as that. There are different roles in the team that players fill. The role that Mackay fills is not going to be filled by Cameron or Knight. There is no question that those two are in our best 22 but they both play different roles to Mackay. If you are looking for role similarity, Mackay and Seedsman play similar roles. Outside running mids/wingers who are there to provide a bit of pace, dash and run and carry. Both didn't get enough of it against Kangaroos but both did well with the possessions they did get, both kicked a goal.

sorry, we can easily change around the team to get rid of dead wood liabilities like mackay and van berlo. we have many players that can play multi positions. sloane is better utilised on the wing with bursts in the centre i say. knight will do far more damage than mackay on the wing. douglas can play outside etc etc. seed didnt get much and drifted in and out but fact is he was very damaging and far better at tackling and defensive running. mackay is hopeless.

 

[dogs105]

Be interested to know the score if that was EFFECTIVE pressure acts.

Sounds like they have to be effective to be counted:

A player will score a point for a physical pressure act when he lays an effective tackle or lays a hand on the opposition ball carrier as he tries to get the ball away.

With implied pressure being tracked for the first time, the ability to corral an opponent will be rewarded.

Players chasing an opponent from behind, forcing them to hurriedly dispose of the ball, also will be rewarded with a "pressure act".

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Good post spoiled by this

Let's wait and see?

I'll bet you at match committee if the idea was thrown around the answer would be that those guys haven't trained with the defensive group, and who would replace VB's ability to organise the troops back there?

I'm not joking.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Agreed, he played an ok game by his standards.

But who would you rather in the team, Mackay or Knight? Mackay or Cameron?

On their current form - Mackay. Knight might be a chance, but he really only was fully up to SANFL standards in the second half of the game on the weekend and we know there is a huge jump from SANFL to AFL. Cameron isn't ready yet, too scratchy on his skills except for his pressure acts.

 

[dogs105]

sorry, we can easily change around the team to get rid of dead wood liabilities like mackay and van berlo. we have many players that can play multi positions. sloane is better utilised on the wing with bursts in the centre i say. knight will do far more damage than mackay on the wing. douglas can play outside etc etc. seed didnt get much and drifted in and out but fact is he was very damaging and far better at tackling and defensive running. mackay is hopeless.

Both had 4 tackles:

Player K HB D M G B T HO I50 FF FA AF SC
Paul Seedsman 6 5 11 3 1 0 4 0 3 0 0 59 59
David MacKay 8 5 13 2 1 0 4 0 3 0 1 59 63

Mackay 2 more kicks, one more free against
Seedsman 1 more mark

Both need to get more of it.

 

[Geoffa32]

My one change would be VB out, Hartigan in.

Or if we don't want another KPD Lyons for VB.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

On their current form - Mackay. Knight might be a chance, but he really only was fully up to SANFL standards in the second half of the game on the weekend and we know there is a huge jump from SANFL to AFL. Cameron isn't ready yet, too scratchy on his skills except for his pressure acts.

Wow, I think you're trying your best to rate Mackay's game as high as possible.

He deserves a 6/10 I think, all things considered…clean skills, attempts at providing pressure vs actually not getting the ball much. I'm probably being kind giving him 6/10 but trying to be fair. Anything above that is grossly overrating his contribution.

 

[mattymac]

Unfortunately a pressure act from Dmac is the equivalent of brushing past a sapling

 

[TheLeftFist8]

Both had 4 tackles:

Player K HB D M G B T HO I50 FF FA AF SC
Paul Seedsman 6 5 11 3 1 0 4 0 3 0 0 59 59
David MacKay 8 5 13 2 1 0 4 0 3 0 1 59 63

Mackay 2 more kicks, one more free against
Seedsman 1 more mark

Both need to get more of it.

I didn't realise what great form Seedsman was in!

 

[dogs105]

I didn't realise what great form Seedsman was in!

He did a couple of really good things (one ferocious tackle sticks in my mind), but didn't get enough of the footy.

 

[TheLeftFist8]

He did a couple of really good things (one ferocious tackle sticks in my mind), but didn't get enough of the footy.

No no, you could never drop a guy who performed so well…chalk him down for 200 games. Might even get another Brownlow vote as icing on the cake.

 

[NikkiNoo]

Wow, I think you're trying your best to rate Mackay's game as high as possible.

He deserves a 6/10 I think, all things considered…clean skills, attempts at providing pressure vs actually not getting the ball much. I'm probably being kind giving him 6/10 but trying to be fair. Anything above that is grossly overrating his contribution.

No I am not. I was at the SANFL game on the weekend, looking forward to seeing Knight and Cameron really pressing their claim as I would prefer them in the team, but they were not quite up to the standard we require. You said you wanted Mackay out for either Knight or Cameron and I'm saying, on what I saw, Cameron is not ready and Knight maybe if you only looked at the half a game he did.

I would put Seedsman in the 6/10 mark as well on the weekend, so why is no one calling for his head? Sloane was bad. Why no one calling for him to be dropped? Crouch and Atkins both thought they were playing SANFL. No calling for them to be dropped. Why do those players get a leeway? Because the group think is that Mackay is bad and can't improve on that 6/10. He has played well above that before but hasn't reached those heights in a while, I agree, but there is the possibility there and I'm willing to wait a little longer than one game in the proper season to hang him out to dry. He isn't John Butcher.

We allow the others more leeway because we trust that they can get to the higher level again, except that Sloane has been poor all pre-season, well below his standard that I expect to see from him. Mackay has performed okay, and done some good things.

I found it interesting that he was equal first (with the poor Sloane) for pressure acts, which implies hardness at the ball carrier, which is something people say he doesn't do well. Those stats seem to say otherwise.

 

[dogs105]

No no, you could never drop a guy who performed so well…chalk him down for 200 games. Might even get another Brownlow vote as icing on the cake.

If you're talking DMac, he might get dropped this week, or might stay in.

Seed will very likely play next week.

VB will very likely be in the 2s.