Prediction Riley Knight - The world's his oyster

[mattymac]

Given we just lost a small quick pressure forward, you don’t think he could play that role? At least he can finish.

I'm thinking Gooch may go past him pretty quick this year unless Knight takes his game up a notch

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

I'm thinking Gooch may go past him pretty quick this year unless Knight takes his game up a notch

play both

 

[Deaneus!]

Yeah, i've been waiting for Knighta to kick on and he hasn't.

Might be his last year to hit his top gear, or become an also-ran.

Seems a bit harsh, but we've been here before.

 

[Cleric]

The coaches love Knight. He will be first 22 unless injured again. Injuries have been the only thing holding him back.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I am not here to bash Riley Knight (or any of our players) so please no one take this that way...But to me he is a player with decent speed and a good work rate who plays at a very high intensity but that is about where his good attributes as a player end as far as I can tell. He doesn't have much success as a tagger, he doesn't accumulate much of the ball and in my opinion he is a poor user of the ball with both his kicking and his decision making. That all being said I do like him as a character, I just wouldn't have him in my best 22. He does have a lot of staunch supporters on here though and even Damien Barrett is on board with Knight featuring in this weeks sliding doors article: "If Sloane coming back has been the key to this club's resurgence...then the lesser profiled Riley Knight can also take some recent credit after returning from injury. Developing very nicely."

For those who are big on Knight, I am interested in understanding why. Please try to convince me that I too should be a Knight fan.

 

[dogs105]

I am not here to bash Riley Knight (or any of our players) so please no one take this that way...But to me he is a player with decent speed and a good work rate who plays at a very high intensity but that is about where his good attributes as a player end as far as I can tell. He doesn't have much success as a tagger, he doesn't accumulate much of the ball and in my opinion he is a poor user of the ball with both his kicking and his decision making. That all being said I do like him as a character, I just wouldn't have him in my best 22. He does have a lot of staunch supporters on here though and even Damien Barrett is on board with Knight featuring in this weeks sliding doors article: "If Sloane coming back has been the key to this club's resurgence...then the lesser profiled Riley Knight can also take some recent credit after returning from injury. Developing very nicely."

For those who are big on Knight, I am interested in understanding why. Please try to convince me that I too should be a Knight fan.

We've won 77% of the games he's played in his career.

This year we've won 38% of games he hasn't played.

 

[hey shorty]

To me he's valuable as a run-with player if he hits the scoreboard. He hasn't really stopped a player yet, rather negated their influence.

He has to hit the scoreboard.

 

[Scorpus]

I wouldn't agree that he is a poor user of the ball or a poor decision maker. I also think he has had success as a tagger, not in his ability to completely stop an opponent from getting touches, but he prevents his opponent from getting effective touches and annoys them.

However when he isn't playing a negating role, which has been most of his football so far, he needs to be able to get more than 14 disposals on average. He's only had more than 20 touches once and most of his football hasn't been as a small forward where those numbers are justifiable.

If he's playing as a half forward or wing, he needs to average more than 1.8 inside 50s and 14 touches.
If he's playing as a forward, he needs to average more than 0.7 goals and 1.3 shots on goal
If he's playing as a tagger that's great, though it'd be nice if he hurt the opposition the other way through disposal or scoreboard impact

 

[Crowboto]

I am not here to bash Riley Knight (or any of our players) so please no one take this that way...But to me he is a player with decent speed and a good work rate who plays at a very high intensity but that is about where his good attributes as a player end as far as I can tell. He doesn't have much success as a tagger, he doesn't accumulate much of the ball and in my opinion he is a poor user of the ball with both his kicking and his decision making. That all being said I do like him as a character, I just wouldn't have him in my best 22. He does have a lot of staunch supporters on here though and even Damien Barrett is on board with Knight featuring in this weeks sliding doors article: "If Sloane coming back has been the key to this club's resurgence...then the lesser profiled Riley Knight can also take some recent credit after returning from injury. Developing very nicely."

For those who are big on Knight, I am interested in understanding why. Please try to convince me that I too should be a Knight fan.

He is a quality tagger and quality finisher. He has kicked many important pressure goals for us over the journey. His only issue has been his long list of injuries. First 22 in any side when fully fit.

 

[Golumless]

I wouldn't agree that he is a poor user of the ball or a poor decision maker. I also think he has had success as a tagger, not in his ability to completely stop an opponent from getting touches, but he prevents his opponent from getting effective touches and annoys them.

However when he isn't playing a negating role, which has been most of his football so far, he needs to be able to get more than 14 disposals on average. He's only had more than 20 touches once and most of his football hasn't been as a small forward where those numbers are justifiable.

If he's playing as a half forward or wing, he needs to average more than 1.8 inside 50s and 14 touches.
If he's playing as a forward, he needs to average more than 0.7 goals and 1.3 shots on goal
If he's playing as a tagger that's great, though it'd be nice if he hurt the opposition the other way through disposal or scoreboard impact

Honestly those are ok numbers for a half forward. It's as much about tackles and defensive pressure as it is about disposals. Especially under Pyke where half forward has been nothing short of a wasteland when it comes offensive production (which coincides with the amount to tall forwards we opt with).

 

[Scorpus]

Honestly those are ok numbers for a half forward.

Eh not really. Gallucci only averages 11 touches but manages 3.0 inside 50s a game. In 2017 Knight was ranked #22 in our team for average inside 50s, only slightly ahead of Luke Brown and behind Jake Lever.

I would't say his pressure acts are bad, but they're not amazing either. Averaging 16.9 in his last 10 matches which is around that Cameron/Murphy/Gallucci level except his scoreboard impact, meters gained (#23 in the team in 2017) and score involvements (#16 in 2017) are below all of those players except Murphy, who hits the scoreboard more himself but doesn't get as involved in general play as Knight

 

[On The Crouch]

I am not here to bash Riley Knight (or any of our players) so please no one take this that way...But to me he is a player with decent speed and a good work rate who plays at a very high intensity but that is about where his good attributes as a player end as far as I can tell. He doesn't have much success as a tagger, he doesn't accumulate much of the ball and in my opinion he is a poor user of the ball with both his kicking and his decision making. That all being said I do like him as a character, I just wouldn't have him in my best 22. He does have a lot of staunch supporters on here though and even Damien Barrett is on board with Knight featuring in this weeks sliding doors article: "If Sloane coming back has been the key to this club's resurgence...then the lesser profiled Riley Knight can also take some recent credit after returning from injury. Developing very nicely."

For those who are big on Knight, I am interested in understanding why. Please try to convince me that I too should be a Knight fan.

I like his energy that he brings to the team, a bit mongrel and a bit of cheekiness. He’s a role player and team player. He has also shown that he can handle the big moments. We seem to be a better team with him in.

I think his decision making and ball use are ok.

It would be good if he could up his possession count to above 20 but that may well happen if he gets some continuity in his game.

 

[hey shorty]

He is a quality tagger and quality finisher. He has kicked many important pressure goals for us over the journey. His only issue has been his long list of injuries. First 22 in any side when fully fit.

Hes not a quality tagger, im not sure where people get this idea from ?? Is it because he kept Selwood to 20 odd touches in 1 game last year ?? Wouldn't say he has kicked many important goals either, 2015 EF is probably the last time.

He loves the niggle and he has solid skills, but his running ability is his biggest asset. He adds to our side no doubt, but just how much he adds is a bit overblown IMO

 

[Bring back Bas]

To me he's valuable as a run-with player if he hits the scoreboard. He hasn't really stopped a player yet, rather negated their influence.

He has to hit the scoreboard.

Does he though? the last three times he has done a run-with role have been Beams on Saturday and Joel disgracetothegamewood the week before and last years prelim. Beams wasn't outstanding last week but he was certainly good and Joel cantplayfootballwithhismouthclosedwood was Geelongs best player in the other two games.

 

[hey shorty]

Does he though? the last three times he has done a run-with role have been Beams on Saturday and Joel disgracetothegamewood the week before and last years prelim. Beams wasn't outstanding last week but he was certainly good and Joel cantplayfootballwithhismouthclosedwood was Geelongs best player in the other two games.

The home game last year Selwood had a heap of it, but wasn't overly damaging. Same with Beams on the weekend, had a bit of it but didnt do a great deal.

I tend to agree with your original post though, he needs to be better to justify his golden ticket

 

[Archie87]

Self-professed Knight fan here but some food for thought, and while I don't have the exact numbers on me, I read the other day that our W-L required WITH Knight in the side is something like 22 wins-8 losses; our record when Knight missing is something like 22 wins; 20 losses - it's much closer to 50/50. That seems to show he is an important cog in the side.

He's an accurate kick for goal, has good speed, is hard at it and is clever in close when he has the chance. He's got to become a better accumulator though.

 

[azza77]

Self-professed Knight fan here but some food for thought, and while I don't have the exact numbers on me, I read the other day that our W-L required WITH Knight in the side is something like 22 wins-8 losses; our record when Knight missing is something like 22 wins; 20 losses - it's much closer to 50/50. That seems to show he is an important cog in the side.

He's an accurate kick for goal, has good speed, is hard at it and is clever in close when he has the chance. He's got to become a better accumulator though.

Not to mention he hasn't done a complete PS without breaking down through it, or right as the season starts for what, 3 season in a row now?

He's a running machine and yet I think we only seeing probably 70% for what he's actually capable of.

He has all the tools you want. Good skills on BOTH sides of his body (always understated), decent speed, mongrel, strong for someone his size in the contest and overhead.

Only 23 and hasn't even cracked the 50 games yet (mainly due to injuries). I've always been a big fat of his, and I'm seriously itching to see what he is capable of of when he's at peak fitness.

 

[Tex200]

Some players are harder to quantify than others. From a "what we see perspective" Riley gives us gut running, aggression/tackling and an ability to hit the scoreboard - beautiful set shot for goal.

But there's a whole lot of stuff we don't see. Anyone from my background will know that, in adversity, there's some guys you just want on your team. Some guys just make you walk a bit taller, feel a bit better. You look across at them and think, yep, we'll get this done.

I've see guys like Riley - when sh...t goes down, they find a way of getting to the other side and dragging everyone with them.

Of course you have to be able to football, and he had enough raw ability to compliment all the other stuff

 

[Golumless]

Eh not really. Gallucci only averages 11 touches but manages 3.0 inside 50s a game. In 2017 Knight was ranked #22 in our team for average inside 50s, only slightly ahead of Luke Brown and behind Jake Lever.

I would't say his pressure acts are bad, but they're not amazing either. Averaging 16.9 in his last 10 matches which is around that Cameron/Murphy/Gallucci level except his scoreboard impact, meters gained (#23 in the team in 2017) and score involvements (#16 in 2017) are below all of those players except Murphy, who hits the scoreboard more himself but doesn't get as involved in general play as Knight

Remember, the bold is the current benchmark for an highly rated defensive forward in the league (seeing Cameron was the premier defensive forward in 2016/17), so it's at a good level. Add to that 4 tackles and 1.7 intercepts and those are some very good defensive numbers (going off his 2017 averages which I feel is the best baseline we have with Knights production currently). So the main reason why he's in the side is there.

I will say, I have some issues with the stats used. Meters gained is practically useless for a forward seeing the game becomes less about territory the further you are up the field, and scoreboard impact is also a weird one seeing it could quite easily be influence by sheer volume of disposals (Matt Crouch and Rory Laird stand out massively in this regard). Not to say both shouldn't be used, but more as an average per disposals/% of disposals would be a much nicer way of showing them.

Offensive production will come, but it's icing as that is not his primary role. Or it won't as really half forward is just a psuedo small forward to us (and his numbers are comparable to Cameron). Really what he does with the ball is not the reason he is in this side, and unless it dramatically falls off a cliff, won't be the reason why he loses his golden ticket.

 

[potatoe]

I am not here to bash Riley Knight (or any of our players) so please no one take this that way...But to me he is a player with decent speed and a good work rate who plays at a very high intensity but that is about where his good attributes as a player end as far as I can tell. He doesn't have much success as a tagger, he doesn't accumulate much of the ball and in my opinion he is a poor user of the ball with both his kicking and his decision making. That all being said I do like him as a character, I just wouldn't have him in my best 22. He does have a lot of staunch supporters on here though and even Damien Barrett is on board with Knight featuring in this weeks sliding doors article: "If Sloane coming back has been the key to this club's resurgence...then the lesser profiled Riley Knight can also take some recent credit after returning from injury. Developing very nicely."

For those who are big on Knight, I am interested in understanding why. Please try to convince me that I too should be a Knight fan.

Watch how he gets around a team mate after they kick a goal, watch how he gets stuck right into a bellend when they act like one (Selwood). He brings more than just his football ability. He also steps up in big games.
That is all you need to know


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[Tex200]

Hes not a quality tagger, im not sure where people get this idea from ?? Is it because he kept Selwood to 20 odd touches in 1 game last year ?? Wouldn't say he has kicked many important goals either, 2015 EF is probably the last time.

He loves the niggle and he has solid skills, but his running ability is his biggest asset. He adds to our side no doubt, but just how much he adds is a bit overblown IMO

Interestingly he's really only just taken on the role of chief tagger since returning this year.

I thought he was just ok v Geelong, but rated his game pretty highly last week, kept Beams from being an influence while getting 17 + 2 goals himself.

Signs a good but long way to go before he's established in that role

 

[Golumless]

Interestingly he's really only just taken on the role of chief tagger since returning this year.

I thought he was just ok v Geelong, but rated his game pretty highly last week, kept Beams from being an influence while getting 17 + 2 goals himself.

Signs a good but long way to go before he's established in that role

I rated his game against Geelong. Selwood you're not going to stop the sheer volume of disposals seeing he's their main inside midfielder, however, it didn't feel like he had a huge impact on the game.

 

[Bring back Bas]

I rated his game against Geelong. Selwood you're not going to stop the sheer volume of disposals seeing he's their main inside midfielder, however, it didn't feel like he had a huge impact on the game.

This is exactly what I don't understand. Eventhetribunallabelledhimadiverwood was the best player on the ground for Geelong according to the coaches votes. Meanwhile Knight had 14 disposals at 57% efficiency. To me it looked like Knight had a shocker but you are not the only one on here to think otherwise. What was so good about his game in your opinion?

 

[1990crow]

There’s a lot going for Riley, just doesn’t accumulate enough. Which is why he is borderline best 22.
With Brad Crouch and Smith still out of the 22 he’s pretty close to the edge.

Best 22 next year

Brown Talia Doedee
Laird Keath Smith
Sloane Gibbs Seedsman
Jacobs Crouch Crouch
Lynch Walker Galluci
Betts Jenkins McGovern
Greenwood Milera Cheney
Atkins/Knight/Murphy/Douglas

If the crows get a FA that pushes him further down. If the crows get Rankine he has to beat out Galluci, Murphy, Atkins and Douglas for a spot.

 

[Golumless]

This is exactly what I don't understand. Eventhetribunallabelledhimadiverwood was the best player on the ground for Geelong according to the coaches votes. Meanwhile Knight had 14 disposals at 57% efficiency. To me it looked like Knight had a shocker but you are not the only one on here to think otherwise. What was so good about his game in your opinion?

With tagging an inside midfielder, it's not about curtailing the volume of disposals seeing you cannot stop a gun inside mid at the coal face. It becomes a game of curtailing effectiveness, and trying to break the chain at the inside midfielder. I.e. making their disposal much more under pressure and stopping the inside midfielder releasing to players who will do much more damage with the ball in hand/stopping the inside midfielder doing the damage.

I'll give you one set of numbers that shows how well knight did that, and a somewhat underrated statistical measure. Fantasy and Supercoach scores (seeing they are a measure of impact, though in a very crude and admittedly flawed way). For it, Selwood put in his worst game of the season in both measures (he has since had a worst AF game).

To back this up - in this game Selwood recorded:

A kick/disposal ratio of 44.8% (season average - 48.7%)
Despite the above stat - A decrease of 7.4% in DE% (going from 69.6% to 62.2%)
44.8% contested disposals - a slight increase from his seasonal average of 43.5%.
6 clangers (season average - 4.5)
9 turnovers (season average - 4.7)
3 clearances (season average - 5.2) and of this, all were centre clearances
Despite a higher then usual inside 50, and meters gained count, Selwood only managed 4 score involvements (season average 5.5). Added to the heavily inflated turnover count, this is indicative of a lot of under pressure bombs into the forward line.
0 tackles (season average - 5.5) this is loosely attributed to Knight shepherding etc, but equally could just be from the belting we received on the inside.

From this, we can see that statistically Knight absolutely slaughtered Selwood. He got more disposals then his season average, he did much less damage then his seasonal average. It also shows the coaches are humans and can be seduced by disposal counts.