Preview Round 1 2022 - Adelaide vs Fremantle, March 20, 2022

[Peter Doherty]

Hately also.

Can you elaborate?

 

[Peter Doherty]

He’s been a very disappointing player so far, and aside from a single fan boi I don’t think anyone would be make that draft pick again with hindsight

Funnily enough Jordan Dawson and Tom Doedee are two of the leading candidates of who we should have taken at 11 if you're going off output, which we're judging Wayne on. Keays is now moving up that list also.

Re-doing the 2015 national draft, picks 10-20, do we possibly now have 4 of them?

 

[George Kramer]

Funnily enough Jordan Dawson and Tom Doedee are two of the leading candidates of who we should have taken at 11 if you're going off output, which we're judging Wayne on. Keays is now moving up that list also.

Re-doing the 2015 national draft, picks 10-20, do we possibly now have 4 of them?

Milera hasn’t played for 2 years. Dawson wasn’t doing much 3 years ago, now he’s a star. We might want to see how Milera goes this year first.

 

[beartoo]

I reckon the first name on the whiteboard for round one will be Hinge.

Injured his shoulder, our players were dropping like flies, came back on to help with rotations and season then wiped out.

I very rarely agree with promising spots for players etc. In this circumstance I think it's fine.

Hope you are right. He looked good to me in his TOG. Athletic, footy nous, good mark and kick, courageous. Could be a bolter this year.

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[Sanders]

I don't disagree that we expected more than we've got so far. But there weren't a lot of good players picked just after him (that were actually available), so I think we still made the right choice.

Thankfully it wasn't Francis that slipped to our pick.

That’s a fair point and a slightly different question

Whether there were other “non-disappointing” options available?

And maybe there wasn’t, but that doesn’t make it less disappointing it makes it less avoidable

 

[Sanders]

Milera hasn’t played for 2 years. Dawson wasn’t doing much 3 years ago, now he’s a star. We might want to see how Milera goes this year first.

Not having played for 2 years isn’t a plus

 

[George Kramer]

Not having played for 2 years isn’t a plus

It isn’t but needs to be taken into account when assessing how good he is

 

[Sanders]

It isn’t but needs to be taken into account when assessing how good he is

If anything it’s a negative. And he was a disappointment before he got injured.

He isn’t coming back from a solid base or good body of work

 

[George Kramer]

If anything it’s a negative.

Being injured is a negative, but when assessing whether he can play football, the fact he hasn’t had a chance to has to be taken into account. Players develop, who knows what he’s developed to now and without seeing him it’s hard to make that call based on what happened 3 years ago

 

[Sanders]

Being injured is a negative, but when assessing whether he can play football, the fact he hasn’t had a chance to has to be taken into account. Players develop, who knows what he’s developed to now and without seeing him it’s hard to make that call based on what happened 3 years ago

He hadn’t show all that much, and he hasn’t shown anything about being better now

Picture Rankine gets injured this week, and is out for 2 seasons, when he comes back would you really argue that he hadn’t been disappointing to date?

 

[hey shorty]

Danger played trial games whilst suspended I think. I’d think Tex should be able to play.

He's able to, we just wanted to see the kids

 

[conVINCEd]

According to the club website’s review of today’s game, R1 against Freo is actually on March 18. Whoops.

 

[AFC979810]

Funnily enough Jordan Dawson and Tom Doedee are two of the leading candidates of who we should have taken at 11 if you're going off output, which we're judging Wayne on. Keays is now moving up that list also.

Re-doing the 2015 national draft, picks 10-20, do we possibly now have 4 of them?

In November of 2021. Zero hanger did a re-do of the top 10 - 2015 draft.

They put Keays in at #10. Think it would be fair to say that Dawson/Doedee would be in that top 20. You could make an argument for Milera around pick 20, but would also be easy to leave him out.

 

[Gtowncrow]

For whatever reason it felt like, with the exception of Oliver*, that that midfielders in the 2015 draft class took a little longer to really shine.

Same comments you made about Milera - could have been made about the below players at the beginning of last year.

Pick 3 - Callum Mills. First 5 seasons - 92 games - 5 total Brownlow votes. 6th season - 18 Brownlow votes.
Pick 5 - Darcy Parish. First 5 seasons - 97 games - 2 total Brownlow votes. 6th Season - 26 Brownlow votes.
Pick 7 - Jacob Hopper. First 5 seasons - 84 games - 2 total Brownlow votes. 6th Season - 15 Brownlow votes.
Pick 24 - Ben Keays. First 5 seasons - 46 games - 1 Brownlow vote. 6th Season - 11 Brownlow votes.

These midfielders are still waiting:

Pick 8 - Callum Ah Chee. First 6 seasons. 83 games - 0 Brownlow votes.
Pick 11 - Wayne Milera. First 6 seasons. 62 games - 2 Brownlow votes. *2020/2021 derailed by injury.
Pick 13 - Mathew Kennedy. First 6 seasons 60 games- 1 Brownlow vote.
Pick 18 - Jade Gresham. First 6 seasons 95 games - 12 Brownlow votes.*2020/2021 derailed by injury.
Pick 20 - Brayden Fiori. First 6 seasons 61 games - 12 Brownlow votes. *2020/2021 derailed by injury.
Pick 23 - David Cuningham. First 6 seasons 41 games - 3 Brownlow votes.

So in a draft where 11 midfielders where taken inside the top 24 picks only 1 became a dominant midfielder prior to their 6th AFL season. I could be wrong, but this seems a little longer than usual.

*Oliver still "broke out" in his 6th season going to another level. However he became a dominant midfielder in 2017.

Great data!
Based on this, we're looking at 2025/6/7 for our youngsters to be at peak output. That's a bit further away than many on here are talking about. But your evidence is compelling enough for me.

 

[AFC979810]

Great data!
Based on this, we're looking at 2025/6/7 for our youngsters to be at peak output. That's a bit further away than many on here are talking about. But your evidence is compelling enough for me.

Cheers.

However, the one thing I think is that maybe covid years of 2020/2021 took a bit more of a toll on players development and really should be factored in when considering the young draft class of 2019.

I feel that usually players breakout in years 3-5 most times. Sloane's 4th season was his breakout. Matt Crouch was his 3rd season. Laird was season 4.

Looking at Schoenbergs development I could see him really breaking out next year. I think he takes a big step this year and cements himself as a key midfielder, but next year is when he will become a dominant player.

3 players I think that will go to another level this year are Schoenberg, Sholl and Doedee.

 

[1970crow]

If anything it’s a negative. And he was a disappointment before he got injured.

He isn’t coming back from a solid base or good body of work

I know you don’t rate them highly in terms of needing to pay high acquisition price, but I’d just plonk him at half back and see if he develops into the AA squad quality player he looked in his second season. Bin the midfield and forward stuff, he’s shown nowhere near the aptitude in those roles.

 

[thebirdman 24]

Hopefully we can address our ruck woes by Round 1. This is a big problem which exposes our average midfield.

I wouldn't be against using a 2 ruck combo or RT in the ruck more considering how useless ROB is at centre bounce.

We cant wait until the fourth quarter for ROBs fitness to win out and him to be competitive.

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[hey shorty]

Hopefully we can address our ruck woes by Round 1. This is a big problem which exposes our average midfield.

I wouldn't be against using A 2 ruck combo or RT in the ruck more considering how useless ROB is at centre bounce.

We cant wait until the fourth quarter for ROBs fitness to win out and him to be competitive.

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It's an interesting concept, I mean the kid can ruck and do it to a pretty high standard.

But I think with Fogarty starting slowly again and Walker not there we've gotta use him as THE forward.

I'd be more inclined to play Strachan

 

[thebirdman 24]

It's an interesting concept, I mean the kid can ruck and do it to a pretty high standard.

But I think with Fogarty starting slowly again and Walker not there we've gotta use him as THE forward.

I'd be more inclined to play Strachan

At least RT can jump and move swiftly at ground level. I don't want him to become a ruckman as he will be a dominant forward but we need to do something different in the middle when RoB doesnt rock up.

Strachan is probably the man but I don't see us dropping a leadership group member who is fit.

It reminds me of when we had Maric as lead ruck. Sure he was a competitive beast but he could barely jump and his best work was taking marks around the ground like RoB. All of a sudden we got a ruckman who could ruck (Jacobs) and it changed everything in our midfield and Maric got traded.

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[Golumless]

At least RT can jump and move swiftly at ground level. I don't want him to become a ruckman as he will be a dominant forward but we need to do something different in the middle when RoB doesnt rock up.

Strachan is probably the man but I don't see us dropping a leadership group member who is fit.

It reminds me of when we had Maric as lead ruck. Sure he was a competitive beast but he could barely jump and his best work was taking marks around the ground like RoB. All of a sudden we got a ruckman who could ruck (Jacobs) and it changed everything in our midfield and Maric got traded.

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Our midfield was just as mediocre in 2011 when Jacobs played his first season for us. What really changed our midfield was that Dangerfield and Sloane broke out into front line mids which occured a year later. That improvement was more natural and less about a change in personnel.

 

[Southerntakeover]

Look the bloke was our compensation for losing Dangerfield

I think you're forgetting that the club used a death grip to prise Dean Gore from a Geelong who were desperate to retain him, and who would really replace the Dangerfield value.

That's what the club told us, and they're always up front.

 

[Mutineer]

I reckon the first name on the whiteboard for round one will be Hinge.

Injured his shoulder, our players were dropping like flies, came back on to help with rotations and season then wiped out.

I very rarely agree with promising spots for players etc. In this circumstance I think it's fine.

Did his chances no harm in the praccy match either....Hately however..

 

[Jeffcrowe]

He’s been an underperformer the whole time. Not terrible, not great.

Like a lot of players he’s gotten better in some peoples minds the longer he’s been out

He had one season where he didn’t under perform so yes overall an under performer . Having 2 years out now makes it even harder for him to ever perform to a level expected

Some very good players have lessened their output after 2 years out and struggled so I agree we shouldn’t expect too much from him , just a bonus if he comes off

I’d be playing him at half back but he’s not a guarantee best 22 , half back is where he had his only consistent season up to the level we expected

 

[1990crow]

Seedsman is going to be a huge loss if he's no good.

 

[kick it to me_]

Seedsman is going to be a huge loss if he's no good.

Posted earlier he's still just running laps in sunglasses. Not looking good.

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