Keys
Looking for a cloud to yell at
- Moderator
- #1
It's here. Round 1 and our first step towards redeeming our embarrassing elimination final exit against eventual premiers the Western Bulldogs and time to show off the fruits of an arduous preseason along with some new faces after a rather extensive list overhaul.
The start of the season proper should also end the childlike obsession of some posters with Subway sandwiches, mispronouncing players names, Dustin Martin comparisons, 28-3 superbowl scorelines and the myriad of other tedious subjects that inhabit this board over the off season.
* it, who am I kidding that'll all continue but at least we can add actual football to the discussion now. Anyway, on with the preview
North Melbourne vs West Coast @ Etihad Stadium : Sunday 26/3 @10.10am
What dicknuckle decided to start a game at 10 in the morning btw
Previous Results
(Overall head to head WCE 26 - NM 21)
2016, Rnd 16 : WCE 16.8:104 def NM 11.6:72 @ Subiaco Oval
2015, PF : WCE 10.20:80 def NM 7.13:55 @ Subiaco Oval
2015, Rnd 10 : WCE 10.15:75 lost to NM 13.7:85 @ Blundstone (Tassie)
2014, Rnd 11 : WCE 6.8:44 lost to NM 12.10:82 @ Subiaco Oval
2013, Rnd 8 : WCE 12.18:90 def NM 13.10:88 @ Subiaco Oval (Naitanui Game)
Last time @ Etihad - 2010, Rnd 3 : WCE 13.13:91 lost to NM 17.14:116 (Remarkably we've only played North at Etihad 3 times and a hold a 2-1 win/loss record over them at the ground)
Form Lines :
West Coast - More North than North
The gradual metamorphosis of West Coast into an version of North Melbourne teams past continued in the off season with 316 game veteran Drew Petrie joining the eagles as the oldest ever rookie listed player at 34 years of age. He joins former Roos teammates Adam Simpson (306 games), Brady Rawlings (245 games) and Daniel Pratt (116 games) to ply his trade in the eagles nest.
Simpson has confirmed that Petrie will be playing against his old team on Sunday so we'll have something of a new look team running out in the new yellow peril clash jumper as he's joined by fellow recruits Sam Mitchell and Nathan Vardy who will be playing for premiership for the first time in an eagles jumper.
Ignore JLT1 where our kids lost to the Giants kids, games 2 and 3 of the JLT series gave a glimpse of what might be in store from a revamped game plan that has had to be adjusted to cope with a losing rather than winning ruck contest whilst introducing quicker ball movement through an increased use of handball. An emphatic win over Fremantle and a less emphatic but nonetheless comfortable win over Melbourne have given cause for optimism.
Rucks aside, the eagles head into this match with a relatively healthy list and it's hard to envisage they could have entered Round 1 of the season proper in much better shape.
North Melbourne - Out with the old, in with the new
After loading up in recent years for a premiership assault that peaked with back to back prelim finals losses and a late season capitulation that saw the Roos tumble from outright 1st at the halfway point of the season to 8th and an Elim final belting from Adelaide, North cleared the decks in the off season and restocked. In one off season they went from one of the oldest lists in the AFL to one of the youngest.
North stalwarts like games record holder Brett Harvey, the aforementioned Drew Petrie, Spud Firrito and experienced recruit Nick Dal Santo were all politely told late in 2016 that their services were not required in 2017. The enigmatic Daniel Wells also changed stripes after he was offered a more than generous superannuation plan from Collingwood who curiously decided to burn salary cap space for fun through free agency.
To offset those losses North have brought in Nathan Hrovat from the bulldogs and Marley Williams from Collingwood along with a slew of draftees, one of whom, Jy Simpkin, looks set to make his debut.
The exodus of experience coupled with their late season stumble has seen the Roos become a popular pick with tipsters as the team most likely to take a tumble with many predicting a bottom four finish. Their preseason form (wins over Sydney and Hawthorn and a loss to the Giants) belies those dire predictions and expect to see a fired up North in round one determined to disprove the doubters with a strong performance over an Eagles team that many consider a premiership contender.
Heading into round one, North will be hurt by the absence of Ben Cunnington due to suspension as well as the injured forward Mason Wood and tagger Ben Jacobs. All three would have been handy additions to their side.
Likely Line-ups
B: Sam Durdin, Scott Thompson, Sam Wright
F: Drew Petrie, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras
HB: Luke McDonald, Robbie Tarrant, Marley Williams
HF: Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, Chris Masten
C: Shaun Atley, Jack Ziebell, Jamie Macmillan
C: Andrew Gaff, Matt Priddis, Lewis Jetta
HF: Nathan Hrovat, Ben Brown, Shaun Higgins
HB: Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Sharrod Wellingham
F: Lindsay Thomas, Jarrad Waite, Majak Daw
B: Jackson Nelson, Eric Mackenzie, Brad Sheppard
Foll: Todd Goldstein, Trent Dumont, Andrew Swallow
Foll: Nathan Vardy, Sam Mitchell, Luke Shuey
I/C: Ryan Clarke, Declan Mountford, Kayne Turner, Jy Simpkin
I/C: Dom Sheed, Elliot Yeo, Josh Hill, Sam Butler
EMG: I'm clueless on this and have shamelessly plagiarised North's 22 from the AFL site
EMG: Mark Hutchings, Tom Barrass, Jack Redden
The Eagles face some selection dilemmas heading into this game as the match committee weigh up what changes, if any, they make to the 22 that took the field against Melbourne in JLT3 which appeared very much like a dress rehearsal for Round 1. Most of the intrigue is at the defensive end of the field where Butler, Barrass and Schofield are all scrambling for a spot after being left out of the Melbourne game.
Three talls or two - This is a structural issue that has a large bearing on who plays. At our best in 2015 (and against Melbourne) we looked more dynamic in the back half with two key defenders and relying on the likes of Sheppard, Hurn and at times Yeo to take the 3rd tall in the hope they could at least force a contest and then win the ball at ground level. In 2016 we moved away from this forced strategy and reverted to our more traditional three tall setup with mixed results. Norths three pronged tall forward setup will tempt the match committee to run with three talls to cover their marking power.
That structural decision will guide who might come in - obviously one of Barrass or Schofield comes in if three talls are decided upon most likely at the expense of midfielder Hutchings. If they stay with two talls then Butler is a likely replacement for Hutch as we will seek to cover Norths dangerous trio of small forwards (Thomas, Hrovat and Higgins). Hutchings will be unlucky to miss but I can't see him in the side.
Should we decide on only two tall defenders there's a meltdown brewing as Mackenzie looks likely to be preferred over Barrass which is a reversal of the pecking order that was established in the back end of 2016 as Emac struggled to adjust to a revamped defensive setup on his return from a knee reconstruction. Despite denials from Simpson to the contrary it appears from the JLT games that Mackenzie is the preferred option much to the confusion of many on here as it's unclear what underpins the decision.
My best guess is that Mackenzie has proven himself to be better aerobically enabling him to run out games stronger and that perhaps Barrass has got ahead of himself with a focus on building unnecessary bulk that has compromised both his speed and endurance. Personally I'd be going with Barrass who is more confident with the high ball coming in and is better at either marking or killing the contest.
Schofield's mobility might get him the nod should we go with three talls but right now he appears to be fourth in line and only an outside chance of playing at this stage. (Barrass did have his upper left leg taped at training today so if that is enough to keep him out for this week the Schoey's chances will get a boost)
Redden is the next mid in line for a game should there be an unexpected injury but I suspect he will be the travelling emergency.
Strategy / Key Matchups
As always, the midfield battle will be crucial and North's strong inside players like Ziebell and Swallow will be salivating at the prospect of roving to Goldstein who will have the ascendancy over our makeshift duo of Vardy and Petrie. North will look to get the ball in quickly to their strong marking talls and hope for either a mark or clean crumbing from their dangerous small forwards. The ability of Mitchell and Priddis to win contested ball so they can feed our outside mids will determine whether our forwards can get enough supply to kick a winning score.
Goldstein v Vartrie - It's a given that Goldy will win the taps but our rucks need to compete sufficiently to avoid those taps being clear ones to advantage. Petrie's combative streak will be important in ensuring North don't get a clear break whilst Vardy's mobility around the ground could worry Goldstein but both will need to be mindful of his propensity to be a link in Norths midfield chain. Nullifying his influence will be vital if we are to win.
Priddis v Swallow - Expect these two to be butting heads all day as they fight for first possession. It's apparent from our preseason games that Plan A is for Priddis to win the ball and distribute it to either Shuey or Mitchell and then we are away. If Priddis gets on top then our outside runners come intothe game and our spread is the area where we could trouble North most
Mitchell v ???? - I don't know who North will assign to Mitch especially with Jacobs out of the side but if they give him too much latitude he'll have a field day. He can be so damaging with his possessions given even a little bit of time that North simply can't allow him any room. Shapes as the most influential player on the ground
Brown v ???? - The man with the big hair has had a limited preseason playing his first game of the season in the VFL last weekend so he could be a little rusty but he's a strong aerial presence and will get the ball to ground. Our talls need to block his run into packs so he's kept of of contests to reduce his influence
Waite v the other ???? - Talented but inconsistent forward who has been in good form through the preseason and shapes as a potential match winner. He's a smart leader and an accurate kick when he's on so we need to force him wide and deny him space to lead in to. Maintaining pressure on the ball carrier to slow their forward movement will give our defence time to setup.
Thomas v Butler/Nelson - Like Waite he can be a match winner or go missing. We don't have a genuine small defender so Nelson and Butler will get the babysitting duties to sit on him and keep him out of the contest. They'll need to keep focused as Thomas can turn a game with a few minutes of brilliance.
Kennedy v Tarrant - the Coleman medallist will need to be at his best to escape the clutches of the much improved Tarrant. Our leading patterns have been very good in the preseason games and JK will be reliant on the continuing sacrificial work of Darling to help open up space. With clean supply the big fella could get a nice bag to kick off his Coleman defence.
Lecras v McDonald - not sure who will pickup the frenchman but the feisty McDonald would be a likely candidate. After an indifferent 2016 Lecras has looked rejuvenated this off season and is relishing going back to a role closer to goal without the midfield minutes he was being used for. We all know how dangerous he can be when he gets off the chain and pulls the skis out
Prediction
Provided our rucks can prevent Goldstein giving the North midfield an armchair ride I think the inside work of Priddis and Mitchell can get enough ball to our outside runners to feed one of the most dangerous forwardlines in the AFL and kick a winning score
West Coast by 15 points in a hard fought physical game
The start of the season proper should also end the childlike obsession of some posters with Subway sandwiches, mispronouncing players names, Dustin Martin comparisons, 28-3 superbowl scorelines and the myriad of other tedious subjects that inhabit this board over the off season.
* it, who am I kidding that'll all continue but at least we can add actual football to the discussion now. Anyway, on with the preview
North Melbourne vs West Coast @ Etihad Stadium : Sunday 26/3 @10.10am
What dicknuckle decided to start a game at 10 in the morning btw
Previous Results
(Overall head to head WCE 26 - NM 21)
2016, Rnd 16 : WCE 16.8:104 def NM 11.6:72 @ Subiaco Oval
2015, PF : WCE 10.20:80 def NM 7.13:55 @ Subiaco Oval
2015, Rnd 10 : WCE 10.15:75 lost to NM 13.7:85 @ Blundstone (Tassie)
2014, Rnd 11 : WCE 6.8:44 lost to NM 12.10:82 @ Subiaco Oval
2013, Rnd 8 : WCE 12.18:90 def NM 13.10:88 @ Subiaco Oval (Naitanui Game)
Last time @ Etihad - 2010, Rnd 3 : WCE 13.13:91 lost to NM 17.14:116 (Remarkably we've only played North at Etihad 3 times and a hold a 2-1 win/loss record over them at the ground)
Form Lines :
West Coast - More North than North
The gradual metamorphosis of West Coast into an version of North Melbourne teams past continued in the off season with 316 game veteran Drew Petrie joining the eagles as the oldest ever rookie listed player at 34 years of age. He joins former Roos teammates Adam Simpson (306 games), Brady Rawlings (245 games) and Daniel Pratt (116 games) to ply his trade in the eagles nest.
Simpson has confirmed that Petrie will be playing against his old team on Sunday so we'll have something of a new look team running out in the new yellow peril clash jumper as he's joined by fellow recruits Sam Mitchell and Nathan Vardy who will be playing for premiership for the first time in an eagles jumper.
Ignore JLT1 where our kids lost to the Giants kids, games 2 and 3 of the JLT series gave a glimpse of what might be in store from a revamped game plan that has had to be adjusted to cope with a losing rather than winning ruck contest whilst introducing quicker ball movement through an increased use of handball. An emphatic win over Fremantle and a less emphatic but nonetheless comfortable win over Melbourne have given cause for optimism.
Rucks aside, the eagles head into this match with a relatively healthy list and it's hard to envisage they could have entered Round 1 of the season proper in much better shape.
North Melbourne - Out with the old, in with the new
After loading up in recent years for a premiership assault that peaked with back to back prelim finals losses and a late season capitulation that saw the Roos tumble from outright 1st at the halfway point of the season to 8th and an Elim final belting from Adelaide, North cleared the decks in the off season and restocked. In one off season they went from one of the oldest lists in the AFL to one of the youngest.
North stalwarts like games record holder Brett Harvey, the aforementioned Drew Petrie, Spud Firrito and experienced recruit Nick Dal Santo were all politely told late in 2016 that their services were not required in 2017. The enigmatic Daniel Wells also changed stripes after he was offered a more than generous superannuation plan from Collingwood who curiously decided to burn salary cap space for fun through free agency.
To offset those losses North have brought in Nathan Hrovat from the bulldogs and Marley Williams from Collingwood along with a slew of draftees, one of whom, Jy Simpkin, looks set to make his debut.
The exodus of experience coupled with their late season stumble has seen the Roos become a popular pick with tipsters as the team most likely to take a tumble with many predicting a bottom four finish. Their preseason form (wins over Sydney and Hawthorn and a loss to the Giants) belies those dire predictions and expect to see a fired up North in round one determined to disprove the doubters with a strong performance over an Eagles team that many consider a premiership contender.
Heading into round one, North will be hurt by the absence of Ben Cunnington due to suspension as well as the injured forward Mason Wood and tagger Ben Jacobs. All three would have been handy additions to their side.
Likely Line-ups
B: Sam Durdin, Scott Thompson, Sam Wright
F: Drew Petrie, Josh Kennedy, Mark LeCras
HB: Luke McDonald, Robbie Tarrant, Marley Williams
HF: Jamie Cripps, Jack Darling, Chris Masten
C: Shaun Atley, Jack Ziebell, Jamie Macmillan
C: Andrew Gaff, Matt Priddis, Lewis Jetta
HF: Nathan Hrovat, Ben Brown, Shaun Higgins
HB: Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Sharrod Wellingham
F: Lindsay Thomas, Jarrad Waite, Majak Daw
B: Jackson Nelson, Eric Mackenzie, Brad Sheppard
Foll: Todd Goldstein, Trent Dumont, Andrew Swallow
Foll: Nathan Vardy, Sam Mitchell, Luke Shuey
I/C: Ryan Clarke, Declan Mountford, Kayne Turner, Jy Simpkin
I/C: Dom Sheed, Elliot Yeo, Josh Hill, Sam Butler
EMG: I'm clueless on this and have shamelessly plagiarised North's 22 from the AFL site
EMG: Mark Hutchings, Tom Barrass, Jack Redden
The Eagles face some selection dilemmas heading into this game as the match committee weigh up what changes, if any, they make to the 22 that took the field against Melbourne in JLT3 which appeared very much like a dress rehearsal for Round 1. Most of the intrigue is at the defensive end of the field where Butler, Barrass and Schofield are all scrambling for a spot after being left out of the Melbourne game.
Three talls or two - This is a structural issue that has a large bearing on who plays. At our best in 2015 (and against Melbourne) we looked more dynamic in the back half with two key defenders and relying on the likes of Sheppard, Hurn and at times Yeo to take the 3rd tall in the hope they could at least force a contest and then win the ball at ground level. In 2016 we moved away from this forced strategy and reverted to our more traditional three tall setup with mixed results. Norths three pronged tall forward setup will tempt the match committee to run with three talls to cover their marking power.
That structural decision will guide who might come in - obviously one of Barrass or Schofield comes in if three talls are decided upon most likely at the expense of midfielder Hutchings. If they stay with two talls then Butler is a likely replacement for Hutch as we will seek to cover Norths dangerous trio of small forwards (Thomas, Hrovat and Higgins). Hutchings will be unlucky to miss but I can't see him in the side.
Should we decide on only two tall defenders there's a meltdown brewing as Mackenzie looks likely to be preferred over Barrass which is a reversal of the pecking order that was established in the back end of 2016 as Emac struggled to adjust to a revamped defensive setup on his return from a knee reconstruction. Despite denials from Simpson to the contrary it appears from the JLT games that Mackenzie is the preferred option much to the confusion of many on here as it's unclear what underpins the decision.
My best guess is that Mackenzie has proven himself to be better aerobically enabling him to run out games stronger and that perhaps Barrass has got ahead of himself with a focus on building unnecessary bulk that has compromised both his speed and endurance. Personally I'd be going with Barrass who is more confident with the high ball coming in and is better at either marking or killing the contest.
Schofield's mobility might get him the nod should we go with three talls but right now he appears to be fourth in line and only an outside chance of playing at this stage. (Barrass did have his upper left leg taped at training today so if that is enough to keep him out for this week the Schoey's chances will get a boost)
Redden is the next mid in line for a game should there be an unexpected injury but I suspect he will be the travelling emergency.
Strategy / Key Matchups
As always, the midfield battle will be crucial and North's strong inside players like Ziebell and Swallow will be salivating at the prospect of roving to Goldstein who will have the ascendancy over our makeshift duo of Vardy and Petrie. North will look to get the ball in quickly to their strong marking talls and hope for either a mark or clean crumbing from their dangerous small forwards. The ability of Mitchell and Priddis to win contested ball so they can feed our outside mids will determine whether our forwards can get enough supply to kick a winning score.
Goldstein v Vartrie - It's a given that Goldy will win the taps but our rucks need to compete sufficiently to avoid those taps being clear ones to advantage. Petrie's combative streak will be important in ensuring North don't get a clear break whilst Vardy's mobility around the ground could worry Goldstein but both will need to be mindful of his propensity to be a link in Norths midfield chain. Nullifying his influence will be vital if we are to win.
Priddis v Swallow - Expect these two to be butting heads all day as they fight for first possession. It's apparent from our preseason games that Plan A is for Priddis to win the ball and distribute it to either Shuey or Mitchell and then we are away. If Priddis gets on top then our outside runners come intothe game and our spread is the area where we could trouble North most
Mitchell v ???? - I don't know who North will assign to Mitch especially with Jacobs out of the side but if they give him too much latitude he'll have a field day. He can be so damaging with his possessions given even a little bit of time that North simply can't allow him any room. Shapes as the most influential player on the ground
Brown v ???? - The man with the big hair has had a limited preseason playing his first game of the season in the VFL last weekend so he could be a little rusty but he's a strong aerial presence and will get the ball to ground. Our talls need to block his run into packs so he's kept of of contests to reduce his influence
Waite v the other ???? - Talented but inconsistent forward who has been in good form through the preseason and shapes as a potential match winner. He's a smart leader and an accurate kick when he's on so we need to force him wide and deny him space to lead in to. Maintaining pressure on the ball carrier to slow their forward movement will give our defence time to setup.
Thomas v Butler/Nelson - Like Waite he can be a match winner or go missing. We don't have a genuine small defender so Nelson and Butler will get the babysitting duties to sit on him and keep him out of the contest. They'll need to keep focused as Thomas can turn a game with a few minutes of brilliance.
Kennedy v Tarrant - the Coleman medallist will need to be at his best to escape the clutches of the much improved Tarrant. Our leading patterns have been very good in the preseason games and JK will be reliant on the continuing sacrificial work of Darling to help open up space. With clean supply the big fella could get a nice bag to kick off his Coleman defence.
Lecras v McDonald - not sure who will pickup the frenchman but the feisty McDonald would be a likely candidate. After an indifferent 2016 Lecras has looked rejuvenated this off season and is relishing going back to a role closer to goal without the midfield minutes he was being used for. We all know how dangerous he can be when he gets off the chain and pulls the skis out
Prediction
Provided our rucks can prevent Goldstein giving the North midfield an armchair ride I think the inside work of Priddis and Mitchell can get enough ball to our outside runners to feed one of the most dangerous forwardlines in the AFL and kick a winning score
West Coast by 15 points in a hard fought physical game
