Preview Round 2, GWS Giants vs Gold Coast Suns, Saturday 1st April, 4.35pm, Spotless Stadium

[Bokonon_]

Sorry guys, one more question. Probably going to catch the train. All the Ts&Cs say free transport TO Spotless stadium. Does this mean that is is not on the return leg? And if it is free on the return leg, how long for after the game?

Thanks for all your kind words regarding the Hanley family

It's free both ways, just keep your tkt. Not aware of a time limit, would just have to be the return journey from Olympic Park as I understand it. Maybe same day. I just wave my membership card at the manned barrier attendant when I catch the train. Wierdly it doesn't include bus travel as I sometimes use.

 

[Simmofreo]

Tks
Kinda shook up my morning a bit. Gutter press, hopefully.

I read the report on the AFL website about no one in 70 years winning a flag after sitting bottom of the ladder after one round

And then read the Patton post

Anyway screw that article. Lost round 1 last year and then almost won a prelim pffft

Oh anf patton out would suck, as they will double team Cameron and take him out of the match. Whereas they have 2 guys at the other end capable of kicking 6 each

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[Bokonon_]

I read the report on the AFL website about no one in 70 years winning a flag after sitting bottom of the ladder after one round

And then read the Patton post

Anyway screw that article. Lost round 1 last year and then almost won a prelim pffft

Oh anf patton out would suck, as they will double team Cameron and take him out of the match. Whereas they have 2 guys at the other end capable of kicking 6 each

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Would definitely prefer May had to choose between them. Rory is the wildcard though.
And yes screw all the people saying we're unbeatable and then trying to make it a fail at every opportunity that suggests we may not. * each and every last one of them

 

[dlanod]

I read the report on the AFL website about no one in 70 years winning a flag after sitting bottom of the ladder after one round

You can find that kind of stat for just about anyone.

No one had won from 7th. Until last year.
No Victorian team had won three in a row in 80 years. Until two years ago.
Etc etc etc.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

That's why they call it "History" when they write it down after.

 

[fridgeman]

Word is that Patton will be a late out

If he is a late out anyone at the ground for the NEAFL can see who of the listed emergencies are missing although they are not a like for like and I can't pick who they would go with as they all have negatives
MK just omitted and the bought back in would be strange
Lloyd first gamer is doubtful for a must win game
Reid has the most experience and has good defensive pressure and can score a goal although not sure on his pace but I am sure he would be faster and more agile the Patton although I do stand to be corrected possibly
If he does stay in and the suns could try to exploit him through putting smaller defenders to run the ball out past him

 

[Determinant]

If he is a late out anyone at the ground for the NEAFL can see who of the listed emergencies are missing although they are not a like for like and I can't pick who they would go with as they all have negatives
MK just omitted and the bought back in would be strange
Lloyd first gamer is doubtful for a must win game
Reid has the most experience and has good defensive pressure and can score a goal although not sure on his pace but I am sure he would be faster and more agile the Patton although I do stand to be corrected possibly
If he does stay in and the suns could try to exploit him through putting smaller defenders to run the ball out past him

MK, Lloyd and Reid all emergencies, and also probably the most likely to come in.
We do need to get to the "One soldier out, One soldier in" position that the successful teams have managed to achieve, but we don't have a "Swap" for Jonno unless someone like Flynn is deemed ready, so more likely a structural change required..

 

[van peebles]

The racehorse is back and its all go go go from here on in.

 

[Gigantor]

Don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but most in media a predicting the mother of all shellackings here, and don't want to put the mozz on our boys, but if the Suns don't turn up two weeks running, that's precisely what it will be.

 

[Simmofreo]

Don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but most in media a predicting the mother of all shellackings here, and don't want to put the mozz on our boys, but if the Suns don't turn up two weeks running, that's precisely what it will be.

Please let it be

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[Simmofreo]

I want an injury free big win

I know it sounds greedy but nothing more will convince me that the guys can win the flag as right now i am worried they wont make the 8

I did a ladder predictor today amd we have a harder draw than Sydney, bulldogs and hawthorn !! In my predictor i had us only losing 1 of the sydney ganes, 1 of the WC games and 1 bulldogs and 1 other in there. we still finished 7th

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[Determinant]

I want an injury free big win

I know it sounds greedy but nothing more will convince me that the guys can win the flag as right now i am worried they wont make the 8

I did a ladder predictor today amd we have a harder draw than Sydney, bulldogs and hawthorn !! In my predictor i had us only losing 1 of the sydney ganes, 1 of the WC games and 1 bulldogs and 1 other in there. we still finished 7th

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lol pessimistic bugger

I did one last night also, went 50/50 on the hard ones and with favourites on all other games, leaving the 12 point margin in place, 3rd to 6th appears about right on that view, I think we are ok for the 8

 

[Giant Pete]

Any team with Gary Ablett and Tom Lynch is a big threat. We have no form and they played pretty well if you took out their first quarter. This will show mentally where we are at.

 

[kulak]

Here's some stats from round 1.

Adelaide 22.15.147 defeated GWS 14.7.91

Inside 50s: Adelaide 65-47
Scoring shots: Adelaide 37-21
Disposals: Adelaide 415-349
Uncontested possessions: Adelaide 268-210
Disposal efficiency: Adelaide 76.6%-76.5%
Kick handball ratio: Adelaide 1.24 - GWS 1.60
Tackles: Adelaide 60-50
Marks: Adelaide 91-88
Clearances: Adelaide 38-39
One percenters: Adelaide 55-34
Bounces: Adelaide 14-13
Avg Age: Adelaide 25yr 1mth - GWS 25yr 6mth
Avg Games: Adelaide 86.8 - GWS 101.7

Gold Coast 14.12.96 lost to Brisbane 15.8.98

Inside 50s: Gold Coast 74-42
Scoring shots: Gold Coast 26-23
Disposals: Gold Coast 367-342
Uncontested possessions: Gold Coast 221-170
Disposal efficiency: Gold Coast 71.7%-65.5%
Kick handball ratio: Gold Coast 1.17 - Brisbane 1.28
Tackles: Gold Coast 78-74
Marks: Gold Coast 78-61
Clearances: Gold Coast 43-32
One percenters: Gold Coast 64-56
Bounces: Gold Coast 18-4
Avg Age: Gold Cost 23yr 9mth - Brisbane 24yr 2mth
Avg Games: Gold Coast 68.8 - Brisbane 72.5

Gold Cost players to watch

Aaron Hall 25 possessions / 118 SC points
Touk Miller 27 possessions / 117 SC points
Gary Ablett 28 possessions / 114 SC points
Michael Barlow 24 possessions / 106 SC points

Steven May 2 contested marks / 13 1%ers / 123 SC points
Tom Lynch 2 contested marks / 3 goals / 101 SC points

What does it mean?

First, I think it means that GWS didn't lose to Adelaide on effort & the inside contest. Broke even in clearances. Slightly behind in tackles, but Adelaide had a lot more of the ball overall so that's understandable. For reference last year GWS had the 2nd best clearance differential last year (+4.3), Adelaide just mediocre (+0.7). GWS weren't beaten at the inside contest, although they might be disappointed they didn't get a win in that area.

Meanwhile Gold Coast comfortably handled Brisbane in that area. However last year Gold Coast (-3.4) and Brisbane (-4.2) were comfortably the two worst teams in the league for clearance differential, so it doesn't necessarily mean much.

Does this mean Gold Coast can replicate their clearance and contested win last week into this week's game? Ablett back + Barlow + Lyons means their midfield is better this year. Still it was only Brisbane.

Second, the kick handball ratio of 1.6 by the Giants is a bit of an outlier, similar to that of Port and Carlton. The league average over round 1 was closer to Adelaide, Gold Coast and Brisbane at 1.29. The Giants have a reputation as a hard-to-tackle contest-winning run and carry team, but in round 1 they didn't do either of those things; breaking even at the contest, and preferring to kick rather than handball.

I doubt that was Leon's plan coming into the game. The bullocking win over Sydney in the first final last year produced 16 bounces to 2, and a kick handball ratio of 1.20, and you would think that is the typical goal.

The other thing which stands out from round 1 is a very low total of 34 one percenters by GWS vs Adelaide's 55. Comparing to the Sydney final again and GWS had more one percenters 54-40. That suggests round 1 featured a lack of the normal desperation we have come to expect from GWS, and ties up with some of the commentary around the game. Might have been attitude related, or weather related, or we just really missed Coniglio who is a leader in that area...who knows.

What are the implications for tomorrow's game?

I can't see GWS playing with the same lack of desperation again. If we do, that's a coach killer. Just can't see it happening.

I expect both sides to come out with a point to prove around winning the contest. GWS will want to redeem from last week; Gold Coast will want to redeem from the last few years. Ablett historically you would expect to be the best midfielder on the ground, however GWS midfield is deeper. I think this will be a genuine contest, at least on the first possession / clearances score.

Stylistically I expect GWS to revert back towards run and carry and use a few more handballs. The younger lighter Gold Coast players won't be able to pressure as effectively as the more mature GWS players which should give GWS an advantage.

Basically I'm expecting GWS to leave behind the 2 most harmful aspects of the round 1 loss - not enough pressure, not enough run and carry. If they do that, it's hard to see Gold Coast keeping even.

 

[Bokonon_]

Here's some stats from round 1.

Adelaide 22.15.147 defeated GWS 14.7.91

Inside 50s: Adelaide 65-47
Scoring shots: Adelaide 37-21
Disposals: Adelaide 415-349
Uncontested possessions: Adelaide 268-210
Disposal efficiency: Adelaide 76.6%-76.5%
Kick handball ratio: Adelaide 1.24 - GWS 1.60
Tackles: Adelaide 60-50
Marks: Adelaide 91-88
Clearances: Adelaide 38-39
One percenters: Adelaide 55-34
Bounces: Adelaide 14-13
Avg Age: Adelaide 25yr 1mth - GWS 25yr 6mth
Avg Games: Adelaide 86.8 - GWS 101.7

Gold Coast 14.12.96 lost to Brisbane 15.8.98

Inside 50s: Gold Coast 74-42
Scoring shots: Gold Coast 26-23
Disposals: Gold Coast 367-342
Uncontested possessions: Gold Coast 221-170
Disposal efficiency: Gold Coast 71.7%-65.5%
Kick handball ratio: Gold Coast 1.17 - Brisbane 1.28
Tackles: Gold Coast 78-74
Marks: Gold Coast 78-61
Clearances: Gold Coast 43-32
One percenters: Gold Coast 64-56
Bounces: Gold Coast 18-4
Avg Age: Gold Cost 23yr 9mth - Brisbane 24yr 2mth
Avg Games: Gold Coast 68.8 - Brisbane 72.5

Gold Cost players to watch

Aaron Hall 25 possessions / 118 SC points
Touk Miller 27 possessions / 117 SC points
Gary Ablett 28 possessions / 114 SC points
Michael Barlow 24 possessions / 106 SC points

Steven May 2 contested marks / 13 1%ers / 123 SC points
Tom Lynch 2 contested marks / 3 goals / 101 SC points

What does it mean?

First, I think it means that GWS didn't lose to Adelaide on effort & the inside contest. Broke even in clearances. Slightly behind in tackles, but Adelaide had a lot more of the ball overall so that's understandable. For reference last year GWS had the 2nd best clearance differential last year (+4.3), Adelaide just mediocre (+0.7). GWS weren't beaten at the inside contest, although they might be disappointed they didn't get a win in that area.

Meanwhile Gold Coast comfortably handled Brisbane in that area. However last year Gold Coast (-3.4) and Brisbane (-4.2) were comfortably the two worst teams in the league for clearance differential, so it doesn't necessarily mean much.

Does this mean Gold Coast can replicate their clearance and contested win last week into this week's game? Ablett back + Barlow + Lyons means their midfield is better this year. Still it was only Brisbane.

Second, the kick handball ratio of 1.6 by the Giants is a bit of an outlier, similar to that of Port and Carlton. The league average over round 1 was closer to Adelaide, Gold Coast and Brisbane at 1.29. The Giants have a reputation as a hard-to-tackle contest-winning run and carry team, but in round 1 they didn't do either of those things; breaking even at the contest, and preferring to kick rather than handball.

I doubt that was Leon's plan coming into the game. The bullocking win over Sydney in the first final last year produced 16 bounces to 2, and a kick handball ratio of 1.20, and you would think that is the typical goal.

The other thing which stands out from round 1 is a very low total of 34 one percenters by GWS vs Adelaide's 55. Comparing to the Sydney final again and GWS had more one percenters 54-40. That suggests round 1 featured a lack of the normal desperation we have come to expect from GWS, and ties up with some of the commentary around the game. Might have been attitude related, or weather related, or we just really missed Coniglio who is a leader in that area...who knows.

What are the implications for tomorrow's game?

I can't see GWS playing with the same lack of desperation again. If we do, that's a coach killer. Just can't see it happening.

I expect both sides to come out with a point to prove around winning the contest. GWS will want to redeem from last week; Gold Coast will want to redeem from the last few years. Ablett historically you would expect to be the best midfielder on the ground, however GWS midfield is deeper. I think this will be a genuine contest, at least on the first possession / clearances score.

Stylistically I expect GWS to revert back towards run and carry and use a few more handballs. The younger lighter Gold Coast players won't be able to pressure as effectively as the more mature GWS players which should give GWS an advantage.

Basically I'm expecting GWS to leave behind the 2 most harmful aspects of the round 1 loss - not enough pressure, not enough run and carry. If they do that, it's hard to see Gold Coast keeping even.

I think a lot of people missed the fact we weren't beaten at the clearances, just couldn't convert that into quality inside 50 entries, or even mediocre entries. To me our much vaunted ball movement broke down and the Crows were much slicker in that regard. Turnovers was a crucial stat and thats where their ball came from largely.

The Suns have quality Key positions and they'll beat us if we dont improve our outside game a lot. Dominating the clearances would help a lot too. I exoect we will though, last week was too bad to be typical.

 

[Simmofreo]

I think Patton will be out. Normally rumours dont start for no reason and Leon didnt sound confident

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[Ichabod Noodle]

Normally rumours dont start for no reason

You say this on Big Footy with a straight face?

 

[Determinant]

I think Patton will be out. Normally rumours dont start for no reason and Leon didnt sound confident

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You say this on Big Footy with a straight face?

I do think he is likely to miss, but the response is perfect

 

[Cmarsh]

Will today's attendance break 10k?

 

[Determinant]

Will today's attendance break 10k?

It will be interesting to see if the huge increase in membership is reflected in the crowds and to what extent..

But even a smallish reflection should see 10k go

 

[Giant Strides]

What we want and what we get are two different things ... first and foremost I just want to see the team win, but want that to be on the back of an improved showing in most areas: penetrating intelligently into the F50, desperation to get to the ball first, defending the ball coming into our D50, and counterattacking run. And no injuries. Scoreboard is a secondary consideration & should come from getting the basics right.

 

[Big Stinky Monk]

Anyone there early watching the NEAFL ? Any of the emergencies not playing (which would confirm the Patton rumour) ?

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

Anyone there early watching the NEAFL ? Any of the emergencies not playing (which would confirm the Patton rumour) ?

Midway through the second quarter. I see Matt Kennedy (with a no.1 buzz cut). I see Daniel Lloyd. I don't see Sam Reid.

I also see a bloody great dirt bike track behind the goals at the scoreboard end.

 

[Big Stinky Monk]

Anyone there early watching the NEAFL ? Any of the emergencies not playing (which would confirm the Patton rumour) ?

Lloyd and Bam Bam both running around. Can not see Reid anywhere

 

[Determinant]

Lloyd and Bam Bam both running around. Can not see Reid anywhere

Was just about to post the same