Preview Round 5: Brisbane vs Essendon, Gabba, Saturday 17/04/2021, 7:25 PM AEST

Aaaaaaaaaaaand the winner is?


  • Total voters
    48
  • This poll will close: .

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eth-dog

Premium Platinum
Jan 11, 2007
93,676
49,745
Melbourne
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Coburg Lions, All Boston sides
Observations

Brisbane:

Essendon: Essendon came close to beating Sydney, falling agonisingly short by less than a kick. The Dons started well, kicking 4 goals to 2 in the first quarter before Sydney chipped the lead back to win by 3 points. Jordan Ridley was outstanding off half back again, collecting 28 disposals and 9 intercepts whilst up front Cale Hooker and Jake Stringer kicked 3 goals apiece.


Head to Head (last 5)

Brisbane 2-3 Essendon


Form Guide

Brisbane: 1-2
Essendon: 1-3


Sportsbet odds

Brisbane: $1.19
Essendon: $4.70
Line: 27.5 ($1.90)


Possible sides

Brisbane vs Essendon

FB: Jayden Laverde - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Nick Hind

FF: Nakia Cockatoo - Joe Daniher - Tom Fullarton
HB: Jordan Ridley - Aaron Francis - Dyson Heppell
HF: Charlie Cameron - Eric Hipwood - Lincoln McCarthy
MF: Nikolas Cox - Andrew McGrath - Zachary Merrett
MF: Hugh McCluggage - Lachie Neale - Mitchell Robinson
HF: Will Snelling - Harrison Jones - Alec Waterman
HB: Daniel Rich - Marcus Adams - Brandon Starcevich
FF: Jake Stringer - Cale Hooker - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
FB: Grant Birchall - Harris Andrews - Jack Payne
OB: Andrew Phillips - Darcy Parish - Kyle Langford
OB: Oscar McInerney - Jarryd Lyons - Dayne Zorko
IC: Mason Redman - Archie Perkins - Devon Smith - Brayden Ham
IC: Callum Ah Chee - Ryan Lester - Zac Bailey - Jarrod Berry
IS: Matthew Guelfi
IS: Deven Robertson

Essendon in: Mason Redman, Andrew Phillips; out: Peter Wright, David Zaharakis (sub)
Brisbane in: N/A; Out: N/A


Brisbane defence vs Essendon forward line

Essendon's forward line has started well this season, kicking a goal 26.4% of the time it entered their forward 50. In a matter of sheer coincidence, Brisbane so far have leaked a goal 26.4% of the time it enters their defensive 50 as well. Brisbane's efforts will most likely be centred around stopping Cale Hooker and Jake Stringer, the pair having been dominant up front for the last couple of game. Expect Harris Andrews and former Bulldogs teammate Marcus Adams to match up on the two respectively whilst impressive young tall Harrison Jones will do battle with another young tall in Jack Payne. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will probably receive attention from Brandon Starcevich, who held him goalless the last time these two sides met.


Midfield/rucks battle

Despite some very impressive names in their midfield, Brisbane are one of the worst clearance difference sides in the league at 15th, slightly ahead of Essendon in 17th so far this season. The pair are also struggling with the around the ground part of contested ball, being 15th and 16th in that particular area as well respectively. However, with Brisbane adding Jarrod Berry back to work alongside the likes of Dayne Zorko, Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons their fortunes should change soon, up against an undermanned and undersized Essendon group of Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Devon Smith and Zach Merrett, it should favour the Lions. On the outside is something Essendon could use to their advantage with guys like Kyle Langford and Nik Cox having a big impact so far this season, up against a trio of pretty handy wings in Callum Ah Chee, Mitch Robinson and Hugh McCluggage, all quality players but Essendon's height advantage should stand them in good stead. Rucks wise, neither the Big O nor Andrew Phillips are world beaters so it'll likely to be a stalemate for the most part.


Essendon defence vs Brisbane forward line

Brisbane's forward line has struggled to convert so far this season, kicking a goal only 21.8% of the time it enters their forward arc. Essendon's defence has been improving week on week, conceding a goal 23.2% of the time it enters their defensive 50. The match-up the footballing community will be anticipating is Joe Daniher against the much improved Aaron Francis, the former Bomber playing his first game against his old side. BrZerk-Thatcher will probably go to back up ruck Tom Fullarton whilst the improved Jayden Laverde will go up against Eric Hipwood. In terms of smalls, Nick Hind has been solid in defence so far this season but will be up against one of the best small forwards in the game in Charlie Cameron, a good test for the Bomber.


X-Factor Player

It's amazing that, given Essendon's history of injuries that Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti will play his 100th consecutive game of football. He will be geared up for this match, given he went goalless last time against this side


Key stat

Brisbane: Clearance difference. Control the middle and Essendon won't get enough scoring opportunities to win the game.

Essendon: Forward conversion. Essendon can win this game, despite all the predictions, but they need to capitalise against an undersized Sydney defence


Tip:

I think, even with a long break, it'll be tough to back up against these guys. Brisbane by 22
 
Last edited:

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JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
14,236
20,003
AFL Club
Essendon
In: Bryan, Redman, Reid, Zaharakis
Out: Wright, Guelfi, Zerk-Thatcher, Ham

Wright looks spent.

Very harsh on Ham, but I think Zaharakis can give us more. It's between Ham and Perkins, but I'll go with Perkins over Ham.
A bit harsh on BZT, but I want to play as many of our young guns as possible.
With Brisbane's ruck conundrum, this is the best time to debut Bryan.
 

andleanback

Premiership Player
Aug 21, 2016
3,828
3,227
AFL Club
Essendon
In: Bryan, Redman, Reid, Zaharakis
Out: Wright, Guelfi, Zerk-Thatcher, Ham

Wright looks spent.

Very harsh on Ham, but I think Zaharakis can give us more. It's between Ham and Perkins, but I'll go with Perkins over Ham.
A bit harsh on BZT, but I want to play as many of our young guns as possible.
With Brisbane's ruck conundrum, this is the best time to debut Bryan.
Surely you’re kidding, no chance ham is getting dropped.
 

JayJ20

Brownlow Medallist
Aug 28, 2016
14,236
20,003
AFL Club
Essendon
Surely you’re kidding, no chance ham is getting dropped.
Yes it's harsh, but I think we need some leadership in the side, hence the inclusion of Zaharakis. I don't see any other opening except for Ham's spot.
Perkins probably should go before Ham, but I think we need to be developing Perkins as much as possible with the injuries we're having.
 

brutus76

Premium Platinum
Jul 26, 2016
2,549
3,494
Brisbane (VIC until 21, SA until mid 30's)
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
LFC, Brisbane Lions
I have my ticket and i'll be at this game on the 50m line Essendon end (RHS)

OUT Wright, BZT
IN Flipper/Bryan and Redders

Zaka and Gleeson etc. should not play until all kid resources are exhausted. Their time is past and Zaka is a one way runner and last year fell off a cliff form wise - is done.
 
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andleanback

Premiership Player
Aug 21, 2016
3,828
3,227
AFL Club
Essendon
Yes it's harsh, but I think we need some leadership in the side, hence the inclusion of Zaharakis. I don't see any other opening except for Ham's spot.
Perkins probably should go before Ham, but I think we need to be developing Perkins as much as possible with the injuries we're having.
I can tell you now, Ham isn’t getting dropped for zaka. Zaka doesn’t even play wing anymore, he’s played as a forward. And ham wasn’t even bad tonight though he played pretty decent. Imo the only Change that should be made for next week is Guelfi out redman in. 9 day break so plenty of rest for the young guys.
 

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Bombers36

Club Legend
Jul 15, 2008
2,853
1,123
Essendon
AFL Club
Essendon
WE are going to be big underdogs again in this game as we were against the Swans. Lets hope we can put in a similar effort...
Minimal changes I think - Wright needs support in the ruck - we simply have to bring in Bryan or Phillips. At this stage I'd have;-

OUT: Guelfi
IN: Bryan or Phillips


Team:

Francis Zerk Laverde
Heppell Ridley Hind
Merrett Stringer Cox
Langford Waterman Smith
Jones Hooker Tippa

2MP Parish McGrath

Bench: Snelling Ham Perkins Bryan/Phillips

Emergency: Zakka Redman Guelfi Ambrose
 

maskmcgee

Premiership Player
Feb 25, 2017
3,242
3,259
The Windy Apple
AFL Club
Essendon
I don't know why people complain about interstate trips, I'd rather have all 5 or 6 out of the way in the first 10 rounds then have 12 games in a row in Melbourne to finish the season.

Good bringing the same effort and intent two weeks in a row, but have to keep it going. We do it this week, they go one step closer to me thinking we've turned the corner.
 

Bombers1234

All Australian
Jun 3, 2006
880
152
Perth
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Chelsea F.C, East Freo, Warriors
No spot for Zaharakis. Keep playing the kids - it’s working.

Find spots for Redman and Zac Reid.
Essendon as a club has generally been poor at getting quality football out of its 30+ year olds. I think as a supporter base as well, we are far too early to right off these guys. Look at the likes of Boak, Josh Kennedy (both WCE and Syd), Pendelbury etc.

I realise Zaka has had a poor couple of seasons, but we need him to get back to his best and play a role for us for the next 2-3 years whilst these younger guys develop.

In: Zaka, Redman
Out: Perkins (rest), Guelfi
 

BomberTime

Club Legend
Feb 11, 2010
2,486
1,647
AFL Club
Essendon
Other Teams
Manchester City San Antonio Spurs
Early changes:
Out: Wright, Guelfi.
In: Bryan, Redman

Francis BZT Ridley
Heppell Laverde Hind
Langford Merrett Cox
Stringer Jones Waterman
Snelling Hooker Tippungwuti
Bryan McGrath Parish
Perkins Smith Ham Redman
 

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