eth-dog
Tier 1 WW Player
Observations
Essendon: Only just got over the top of a winless Adelaide, winning by 3 points to move back into the top 8. Zach Merrett returned to form with 33 disposals and 6 clearances alongside Andrew McGrath who had 25 and 8. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti was dangerous throughout, kicking 2 goals.
Brisbane: Brisbane also had a tight win against Melbourne. The Lions had a 3 goal lead at 3 quarter time but Melbourne came home in a rush, getting within 2 points but the Lions managed to hang on. Lachie Neale had 33 touches and 7 clearances in the middle whilst Charlie Cameron was Brisbane's only multiple goal scorer with 2.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 3-2 Brisbane
Form Guide
Essendon: 2W 2L
Brisbane: 3W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $3.25
Brisbane: $1.33
Line: 15.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Brisbane
FB: Aaron Francis - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
FF: Archie Smith - Daniel McStay - Charlie Cameron
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Martin Gleeson
HF: Lincoln McCarthy - Eric Hipwood - Cameron Rayner
MF: Kyle Langford - Zachary Merrett - Brayden Ham
MF: Mitchell Robunsin - Dayne Zorko - Hugh McCluggage
HF: William Snelling - James Stewart - Ned Cahill
HB: Daniel Rich - Darcy Gardiner - Brandon Starcevich
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Tom Bellchambers - Jacob Townsend
FB: Grant Birchall - Harris Andrews - Ryan Lester
OB: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Oscar McInerney - Jarryd Lyons - Lachie Neale
IC: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Tom Cutler - Mason Redman
IC: Jarrod Berry - Thomas Berry - Callum Ah Chee - Zac Bailey
Essendon in: Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Dylan Shiel, Tom Cutler, Sam Draper; Out: Jayden Laverde (inj), Conor McKenna (susp), Mitchell Hibberd, David Zaharakis (omit)
Brisbane in: N/A; Out: N/A
Brisbane defence vs Essendon forward line
So far this season Essendon averaged 24.1% in terms of goals/inside 50, which currently has them 4th for inside 50 efficiency. Brisbane are great at keeping inside 50 numbers low but once it gets in they concede a goal 24.7% of the time it goes in there. Essendon might welcombe back James Stewart for the first time in 2 years, the key forward being named an emergency last week, who will probably receive attention from Darcy Gardiner, whilst Shaun McKernan will have to deal with one of the best key defenders in the AFL in Harris Andrews. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti looks like he'll be the most dangerous small forward and will come up against Brandon Starcevich, nephew of Craig, who has shown a lot of improvement this season wilst Jayden Laverde will be head to head with Ryan Lester who has settled in defence after being a jack of all trades for a few years.
Midfield/rucks battle
In the contested stuff Brisbane are 5th for overall contested possession differential, and 10th for clearance differential, but that's far better than Essendon's 16th and 12th for those statistics respectively. Essendon will welcome back Dylan Shiel from a 2 match suspension, which will significantly boost their ball winning ability, the man is averaging 6.4 clearances a game along with 23.4 possessions, his support crew being made up of Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Andrew McGrath whilst Brisbane will be looking at Brownlow favourite Lachie Neale to lead alongside captain Dayne Zorko and grunt men Jarrod Berry and Jarryd Lyons to get the ball out. In terms of the wings, Essendon have made a clear direction of having ones that mark the ball with the likes of Kyle Langford and Tom Cutler being strong overhead whilst Brisbane have two very hard and aggressive wings in Hugh McCluggage and Mitch Robinson. As far as the ruck is concerned, Sam Draper may make his AFL debut this week after only three practice matches, he'll be up against the combination of Oscar McInerney and Archie Smith, two solid if not spectacular rucks.
Brisbane forward line vs Essendon defence
Brisbane's forward line is probably their biggest weakness, kicking a goal only 20.9% of the time it enters forward 50. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 20.4% of the time it enters defensive 50, 4th in the AFL. Charlie Cameron is talked about as one of three gun small forwards in the AFL right now, and will come up against Adam Saad, who held him goalless last year, and since then Charlie has kicked 62 goals in 27 games, so expect a fiery contest between the two. Brisbane tend to play two key forwards, Daniel McStay and Eric Hipwood, and two ruckmen so I'd be expecting Aaron Francis to take Dan McStay and Michael Hurley on Eric Hipwood, who averages 2 goals/game against the Dons, whilst players like Jordan Ridley and Martin Gleeson probably go to dangerous smalls Lincoln McCarthy and Cameron Rayner.
X-Factor Player
Tom Cutler will be really keen to have a good game against his former club after not having many opportunities there, expect the tall winger to run up and down the ground with great intensity.
Key stat
Essendon: Offensive conversion. Must convert against a leaky defence in Brisbane, need to exploit the match ups against the likes of Grant Birchall and Daniel Rich, neither of whom are great defensively
Brisbane: Clearances. They really should be dominating this particular area of the game given Essendon's undersized midfield.
Tip
Should be a good game, but unfortunately I see Brisbane winning by 12 points
Essendon: Only just got over the top of a winless Adelaide, winning by 3 points to move back into the top 8. Zach Merrett returned to form with 33 disposals and 6 clearances alongside Andrew McGrath who had 25 and 8. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti was dangerous throughout, kicking 2 goals.
Brisbane: Brisbane also had a tight win against Melbourne. The Lions had a 3 goal lead at 3 quarter time but Melbourne came home in a rush, getting within 2 points but the Lions managed to hang on. Lachie Neale had 33 touches and 7 clearances in the middle whilst Charlie Cameron was Brisbane's only multiple goal scorer with 2.
Head to Head (last 5)
Essendon 3-2 Brisbane
Form Guide
Essendon: 2W 2L
Brisbane: 3W 1L
Sportsbet odds
Essendon: $3.25
Brisbane: $1.33
Line: 15.5 ($1.90)
Possible sides
Essendon vs Brisbane
FB: Aaron Francis - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Adam Saad
FF: Archie Smith - Daniel McStay - Charlie Cameron
HB: Jordan Ridley - Michael Hurley - Martin Gleeson
HF: Lincoln McCarthy - Eric Hipwood - Cameron Rayner
MF: Kyle Langford - Zachary Merrett - Brayden Ham
MF: Mitchell Robunsin - Dayne Zorko - Hugh McCluggage
HF: William Snelling - James Stewart - Ned Cahill
HB: Daniel Rich - Darcy Gardiner - Brandon Starcevich
FF: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti - Tom Bellchambers - Jacob Townsend
FB: Grant Birchall - Harris Andrews - Ryan Lester
OB: Sam Draper - Darcy Parish - Dylan Shiel
OB: Oscar McInerney - Jarryd Lyons - Lachie Neale
IC: Andrew McGrath - Devon Smith - Tom Cutler - Mason Redman
IC: Jarrod Berry - Thomas Berry - Callum Ah Chee - Zac Bailey
Essendon in: Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Dylan Shiel, Tom Cutler, Sam Draper; Out: Jayden Laverde (inj), Conor McKenna (susp), Mitchell Hibberd, David Zaharakis (omit)
Brisbane in: N/A; Out: N/A
Brisbane defence vs Essendon forward line
So far this season Essendon averaged 24.1% in terms of goals/inside 50, which currently has them 4th for inside 50 efficiency. Brisbane are great at keeping inside 50 numbers low but once it gets in they concede a goal 24.7% of the time it goes in there. Essendon might welcombe back James Stewart for the first time in 2 years, the key forward being named an emergency last week, who will probably receive attention from Darcy Gardiner, whilst Shaun McKernan will have to deal with one of the best key defenders in the AFL in Harris Andrews. Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti looks like he'll be the most dangerous small forward and will come up against Brandon Starcevich, nephew of Craig, who has shown a lot of improvement this season wilst Jayden Laverde will be head to head with Ryan Lester who has settled in defence after being a jack of all trades for a few years.
Midfield/rucks battle
In the contested stuff Brisbane are 5th for overall contested possession differential, and 10th for clearance differential, but that's far better than Essendon's 16th and 12th for those statistics respectively. Essendon will welcome back Dylan Shiel from a 2 match suspension, which will significantly boost their ball winning ability, the man is averaging 6.4 clearances a game along with 23.4 possessions, his support crew being made up of Zach Merrett, Darcy Parish and Andrew McGrath whilst Brisbane will be looking at Brownlow favourite Lachie Neale to lead alongside captain Dayne Zorko and grunt men Jarrod Berry and Jarryd Lyons to get the ball out. In terms of the wings, Essendon have made a clear direction of having ones that mark the ball with the likes of Kyle Langford and Tom Cutler being strong overhead whilst Brisbane have two very hard and aggressive wings in Hugh McCluggage and Mitch Robinson. As far as the ruck is concerned, Sam Draper may make his AFL debut this week after only three practice matches, he'll be up against the combination of Oscar McInerney and Archie Smith, two solid if not spectacular rucks.
Brisbane forward line vs Essendon defence
Brisbane's forward line is probably their biggest weakness, kicking a goal only 20.9% of the time it enters forward 50. Essendon have been really good at restricting the opposition in this area, conceding a goal 20.4% of the time it enters defensive 50, 4th in the AFL. Charlie Cameron is talked about as one of three gun small forwards in the AFL right now, and will come up against Adam Saad, who held him goalless last year, and since then Charlie has kicked 62 goals in 27 games, so expect a fiery contest between the two. Brisbane tend to play two key forwards, Daniel McStay and Eric Hipwood, and two ruckmen so I'd be expecting Aaron Francis to take Dan McStay and Michael Hurley on Eric Hipwood, who averages 2 goals/game against the Dons, whilst players like Jordan Ridley and Martin Gleeson probably go to dangerous smalls Lincoln McCarthy and Cameron Rayner.
X-Factor Player
Tom Cutler will be really keen to have a good game against his former club after not having many opportunities there, expect the tall winger to run up and down the ground with great intensity.
Key stat
Essendon: Offensive conversion. Must convert against a leaky defence in Brisbane, need to exploit the match ups against the likes of Grant Birchall and Daniel Rich, neither of whom are great defensively
Brisbane: Clearances. They really should be dominating this particular area of the game given Essendon's undersized midfield.
Tip
Should be a good game, but unfortunately I see Brisbane winning by 12 points
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